Political uncertainty and household savings

Despite macroeconomic evidence pointing to a negative aggregate consumption response due to political uncertainty, few papers have used microeconomic panel data to analyze how households adjust their consumption after an uncertainty shock. We study household savings and expenditure adjustment from an unexpected, large-scale and rapidly evolving political shock that occurred largely in May 1989 in Beijing, China. Using monthly micro-panel data, we present evidence that a surge in political uncertainty resulted in significant temporary increases in savings among urban households in China. Households responded mainly by reducing semi-durable expenditure and frequency of major durable adjustment. The uncertainty effect is more pronounced among older, wealthier, and more socially advantaged households. We interpret our findings using existing models of precautionary behavior. By focusing on time variation in uncertainty, our identification strategy avoids many of the potential problems in empirical studies of precautionary savings such as self-selection and life-cycle effects.     

对我国居民储蓄行为的再思考

居民储蓄持续增长早已成为我国重要的经济现象之一。其与我国诸多宏观经济因素之间存在密切联系，也是支持经济快速增长的重要因素。本文试从我国居民储蓄的现状及成因入手，阐述我国储蓄行为的变化倾向，以利国家采取相应的宏观调控政策。     

Determinants of private savings behaviour in Turkey

This study investigates the effects on private saving rates of a number of policy and non-policy variables. The analysis covers the period 1968–1994. The empirical private saving model for Turkey is estimated. The findings support the hypothesis that private saving rates have strong inertia. The evidence indicates that government saving does not tend to crowd out private savings and the Ricardian equivalence does not hold strictly. Income level has a positive impact on private saving rate, and growth rate of income is not statistically significant. From a policy point of view, financial depth and development measures in Turkey suggest that countries with deeper financial systems tend to have higher private saving rates. Private credit and real interest rates try to capture the severity of the borrowing constraints and the degree of financial repression for Turkey. Moreover, the negative impact of life expectancy rate lends support to the life-cycle hypothesis. The precautionary motive for saving is supported by the findings that inflation captures the degree of macroeconomic volatility and has a positive impact on private saving in Turkey.     

Cost savings in unit-based pricing of household waste: The case of The Netherlands

We estimate the effects of four unit-based pricing systems on waste collected in Dutch municipalities. Unit-based pricing is shown to be effective in reducing unsorted and compostable waste and in stimulating recyclable waste. If the estimations are corrected for differences in environmental activism between municipalities the effects are still large but significantly lower. The bag- and weight-based systems perform equally and far better compared with the frequency- and volume-based systems. This is interesting, as administrative costs are significantly lower for the bag-based system. Finally, unit-based pricing has no effect on the amounts of waste collected in surrounding municipalities.     

Do private pensions increase national savings?

This paper discusses how private pension programs differ from public social security in their likely impact on aggregate saving. Although private pensions are likely to reduce direct saving by employees, this should be offset by the combination of companies' partial funding and the shareholders response to unfunded liabilities. In contrast to several earlier empirical studies that implied that social security does depress national saving, the current time series evidence suggests that the growth of private pensions has not had an adverse effect on saving and may have increased saving by a small amount.     

The effect of household characteristics on saving behaviour and the theory of savings in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the household saving functions based on cross-section data which contain fruitful informations of individual observations. The paper also attempts to test various theories of saving behaviours empirically such as life-cycle saving hypothesis, or permanent income hypothesis, or several other theories. Since the data contain several useful variables which have not been used previously, particular attention is paid to the influence of those household characteristics on saving behaviour.     

Pension wealth and household savings in Europe: Evidence from SHARELIFE

We use recently collected retrospective survey data to estimate the displacement effect of pension wealth on household savings. The third wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, SHARELIFE, collects information on the entire job history of the respondent, a feature missing in most previous studies. We show that addressing measurement error problems is crucial to estimate the displacement effect when using survey data. We find that each euro of pension wealth is associated with a 47 (61) cent decline in non-pension wealth using robust (median) regression. In the presence of biases from measurement errors and omitted (unobserved) variables, we estimate a lower bound to the true offset between 17% and 30%, significantly different from zero. Instrumental variables regression estimates, although less precise, suggest full displacement.     

A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply

A structural model of the household is described that represents current best-practice in the analysis of savings and labour supply responses to the policy environment. Care has been taken in specifying the model so that it represents an appropriate basis for the analysis of incentive effects to policy change, and for exploring the empirical support for alternative structural assumptions. Matching the model to survey data for the UK reveals some interesting puzzles in relation to the timing of retirement.     

Motives for household private transfers in Burkina Faso

Resource transfers among households have received considerable interest among economists in recent years. Two of the main reasons for the surge of interest in household transfers are the information on human nature conveyed by transfer behavior and the implication on income redistribution policy that private transfer might have. Empirical studies, however, provide mixed results on transfer behavior. This is because previous inquiries were confronted with several estimation issues and have focused on data from developed countries where private transfers are already small. This paper contributes to the literature on transfer behavior by using a multifaceted econometric approach to examine the motives of household transfers in Burkina, a low-income country with a well-documented tradition of gift exchanges. The findings suggest that risk sharing is not central to transfers. Altruistic transfers are apparent for the middle income class, but not at low income level. The evidence implies that crowding out may be minimal at low income level, suggesting that public transfers targeting poor households may be effective.     

The interest elasticity of household savings: a structural approach with German micro data

This paper empirically investigates the effects of changes in the interest rate as well as in the current and expected future consumer price levels on households’ consumption–savings decision. In a structural demand model applied to German consumption data, we use cross-sectional and longitudinal variation in prices and tax rates to construct individual after-tax interest rates and cluster-specific consumer prices. We find that the compensated own-price elasticities for savings as well as consumption are significantly negative, while the theoretical model implications of homogeneity and symmetry must be rejected. Importantly, we estimate the uncompensated interest rate elasticity of savings, in line with the literature, at around zero. Some heterogeneity in this elasticity is found along the savings and wealth distribution. We conclude that short-term policy-induced variation of net returns to savings is expected to have no significant effects on the level of compound savings.     

On the determinants of household debt maturity choice

This article jointly analyses a behavioural and a cultural concept to explain household debt portfolio choice. The behavioural approach explores the role of time preferences on household debt maturity in a theoretical model and a numerical analysis. We derive a positive relationship between the long-term discount factor δ and the optimal maturity of household loans. The cultural approach examines whether national culture is a reasonable predictor for household debt maturity. We show that culture is an important factor for households’ borrowing decisions and has even more predictive power than time preferences. Countries with higher scores on the Hofstede dimension of long-term orientation tend to have shorter household debt maturity. Time preferences incur a primarily mediating role, because the effect of national culture on the borrowing decision is reduced, as the long-term discount factor δ increases.     

The macroeconomic determinants of private equity investment: a European comparison

A strong private equity (PE) market is a cornerstone for commercialization and innovation in modern economies. However, substantial differences exist in the relative amounts raised and invested in PE across European countries. We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of PE investment in Europe, focusing on the comparison between Central and Eastern European (CEE) and Western European countries. Our estimations are based on a data set running from 2001 to 2011 that covers 16 countries. Applying robust estimation techniques, we identify a ‘robust’ set of determinants of PE activity in both regions. We find similarities as well as differences in the driving forces of PE investments in Western European and CEE countries. Our results suggest that economic activity, the inflation rate, equity market capitalization, unit labour costs, the unemployment rate as well the the institutional and legal environment are significant determinants of PE activity.     

The determinants of the demand for private health insurance under Medicare

Since the introduction of Medicare in 1984, the proportion of the Australian population with private health insurance has declined considerably. Insurance for health care consumption is compulsory for the public health sector but optional for the private health sector. In this paper, we explore a number of important issues in the demand for private health insurance in Australia. The socio-economic variables which influence demand are examined using a binary logit model. A number of simulations are performed to highlight the influence and relative importance of various characteristics such as age, income, health status and geographical location on demand. A number of important policy issues in the private health insurance market are highlighted. First, evidence is provided of adverse selection in the private health insurance pool, second, the notion of the wealthy uninsured is refuted, and finally it is confirmed that there are significant interstate differences in the demand for private health insurance.     

Determinants of household savings in China and their role in quasi‐money supply1

This study derives household saving potential empirically from econometric models of Chinese urban and rural household consumption and uses this potential to explain household bank deposits. Model simulations are performed to analyse the effects of interest rates, income and income uncertainty on the saving potential and the bank deposits. The bank deposits variable is then used to explain quasi‐money supply. High bank absorption of household savings is found to account mainly for the rapid growth in quasi‐money, which in turn explains the exceptionally high M2/GDP ratio. Households’ savings are largely predictable from their regular consumption.     

The determinants of household recycling: social influence,public policies and environmental preferences

Our article aims at understanding the determinants of households’ selective waste-sorting behaviours, based on data from an original survey of 694 individuals in the French Provence–Alpes–Côte d’Azur region. The applied literature focuses mainly on countries with high recycling rates. We focus on a region with the lowest recycling rate in France, a country that recycles less than the European country average. We first apply polychoric principal components analysis to reduce the number of explanatory variables to a set of six factors. In a second step, we use a probit model to estimate the probability of waste sorting as a function of these factors. This model tests several hypotheses emerging from the recent literature on behavioural economics applied to households’ selective sorting. This literature pays particular attention to the social influence on recycling behaviour, which has been studied mostly by sociologists and psychologists. The results of our empirical analysis confirm some of the findings in the literature. However, they also highlight some unique features, such as social influences having a negative impact on recycling. This finding contrasts with most of the literature, which finds a positive relationship of social influence on pro-environmental behaviour.     

The drivers of household indebtedness reconsidered: An empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries

Abstract

Household debt is at a record high in most Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and it played a crucial role in the recent financial crisis. Several arguments on the macroeconomic drivers of household debt have been put forward, and most have been empirically tested, albeit in isolation of each other. This article empirically tests 7 competing hypotheses on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness together in one econometric study. Existing arguments suggest that residential house prices, upward movements in the prices of assets demanded by households, the income share of the top 1%, falling wages, the rolling back of the welfare state, the age structure of the population, and the short-term interest rate drive household indebtedness. We formulate these arguments as hypotheses and test them for a panel of 13 OECD countries over the period 1993–2011 using error correction models. We also investigate whether effects differ in boom and bust phases of the debt and house price cycles. The results show that the most robust macroeconomic determinant of household debt is real residential house prices, and that the phase of the debt and house price cycles plays a role in household debt accumulation.     

Consumption,habit formation,and savings: Evidence from a rural household panel survey

Protecting consumption from the effects of uninsured risk is vital for rural farming households, who tend to be poor and live close to subsistence level. Income uncertainty and habit formation play important roles in the consumption and savings. Variability in weather conditions has a strong linkage with variability in agricultural income in developing countries. This study analyzes consumption and saving decisions of rural farm households in India. Using household panel data for 4 years, we estimated consumption equation accounting for habit formation under income uncertainty. Our findings suggest an evidence for habit formation among rural households. Additionally, we found that both annual and seasonal weather risks significantly influence savings among rural households. Findings from this study also suggest a robust and vibrant farm economy and that the nonfarm economy could contribute to the economic well‐being of rural farming households.     

The tax advantage of public firms over private firms in the German household solid waste disposal industry

We measure the tax advantage of public firms over private firms, which operate at municipality level in the German household solid waste disposal industry. Public firms with sovereign duties pay no taxes, but equivalent private firms have to. In a simple risk-free setting, we develop a measure of the percentage difference of the charges of both types of firms demanded under their respective tax treatments. We model a cost-covering public firm and a net present value maximizing private firm. For sensible model parameters from the German waste disposal industry the private firm has to demand an about 16% to 18% higher charge. The by far biggest impact on the measure has the value added tax, with revenues as a much larger tax base than profits. Tax savings, which directly affect pre-tax profits, only alleviate the disadvantage bit. There is some evidence that at least one type of private firms—that is, private law firms that are also majority privately owned, are productive enough to overcome the tax advantage of public firms and be able to charge a lower price than public firms.     

The vanishing savings motive

The overlapping generations model with life-time uncertainty is capable of generating unfamiliar, nonmonotonic adjustment phenomena that are attributed to a transitory savings motive. Slowly falling (increasing) wages create transitory savings (dis-)incentives which vanish in the long run when wage profiles become stationary again. Such a transitory savings component comes on top of a base component created by the permanently operating long-run savings incentives, and it easily gives rise to overshooting adjustment. Assets and consumption may even move first in a direction opposite to the implied long-run changes.