Location and attendance in major league baseball

This study uses a travel-cost model to analyse the attendance impacts on Major League Baseball (MLB) of the closest substitute MLB team. It is found that the closer two teams are, the lower attendance is at each team relative to two teams that are farther apart. In addition, when a new team moves into the area of an existing team, there is an additional initial reduction in attendance for the incumbent team. This has implications for actions aimed at changing the number of teams in MLB either by contraction or by possible antitrust approaches that would increase the number of teams, especially in megalopolis markets. Further, and consistent with past demand studies, pricing is in the inelastic portion of gate demand and fan loyalty is a significant contributor to the estimation of gate attendance.     

STADIUM CONSTRUCTION AND MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL ATTENDANCE

The established literature shows that new stadium construction for major league baseball (MLB) teams can increase attendance, but there are limited studies at the minor league level. We use a data set encompassing all A, AA, and AAA minor league baseball teams from 1992 to 2006 to estimate the impact of stadium construction on minor league attendance. This data set includes almost 200 teams, over half of which constructed a new stadium during the 15‐year observation period. Over a 10‐year period our results show that new stadiums increase attendance by 1.2 million fans at the AAA level, 0.4 million at the AA and high A level, and 0.2 million at short season low A. A cost benefit analysis suggests that increased ticket sales do not offset the stadium costs, in line with previous works on MLB. (JEL H0, L83)     

Scouts versus Stats: the impact of Moneyball on the Major League Baseball draft

Michael Lewis’ influential book Moneyball (2003) discusses several sources of inefficiency in the Major League Baseball (MLB) labour market; one of these being the failure of baseball scouts to place a draft premium on college players. We test this implication of the Moneyball thesis – the superiority of college players – by measuring the productivity of players who were drafted in the first round of five MLB drafts covering the years 1995–1999. Employing a variety of specifications, we find that the performance of college draft choices is no better than those of high school picks and argue that this is consistent with Hayek's (1944) work on the economics of information and his emphasis on the importance of localized knowledge. Additionally, we utilize data on the first three rounds of the MLB draft from 1965 to 2010 to test whether Lewis’ book had any impact on teams’ draft strategies. We find no significant structural change in the draft following the publication of Moneyball.     

Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.     

Does fiscal decentralization promote the inflow of FDI in China?

This paper tests whether China's fiscal decentralization promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). Using provincial panel data during 1995–2002, we find that fiscal decentralization has a positive and significant effect on inward FDI, after controlling for other factors, and fixed time and province effects in both LSDV (Least squares dummy variables) regression and system GMM (Generalized method of moments) estimations that address the endogeneity of fiscal decentralization. The results are robust to six measures of fiscal decentralization that consider budgetary amount, extra-budgetary funds and inter-governmental transfers. A simple theory is offered to explain the findings. The results during 1987–1994 are further contrasted. Policy implications are also presented.     

机场鸟害防治的生态学策略

机场地区的鸟类严重威胁着飞机的飞行安全,迄今为止,鸟撞给民航部门和军方造成了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,机场鸟害防治工作日益受到人们的重视。文章从鸟撞的危害八笔,分析了鸟撞发生的因素,提出了鸟害防治的生态学策略,最后对鸟害防治的发展趋势进行了讨论。     

How does your kindergarten classroom affect your earnings? Evidence from Project Star

In Project STAR, 11,571 students in Tennessee and their teachers were randomly assigned to classrooms within their schools from kindergarten to third grade. This article evaluates the long-term impacts of STAR by linking the experimental data to administrative records. We first demonstrate that kindergarten test scores are highly correlated with outcomes such as earnings at age 27, college attendance, home ownership, and retirement savings. We then document four sets of experimental impacts. First, students in small classes are significantly more likely to attend college and exhibit improvements on other outcomes. Class size does not have a significant effect on earnings at age 27, but this effect is imprecisely estimated. Second, students who had a more experienced teacher in kindergarten have higher earnings. Third, an analysis of variance reveals significant classroom effects on earnings. Students who were randomly assigned to higher quality classrooms in grades K–3—as measured by classmates' end-of-class test scores—have higher earnings, college attendance rates, and other outcomes. Finally, the effects of class quality fade out on test scores in later grades, but gains in noncognitive measures persist.     

Work incentive and other effects of social assistance and unemployment benefit policy in the Czech Republic

In this paper we provide an account of most of the passive labor market policies (unemployment compensation, social assistance, state social support and the pension system) in the Czech Republic during the 1990–1996 period. The eligibility requirements and benefit levels are described in great detail. Using Labor Force Survey data, we compare the characteristics of unemployed people receiving unemployment benefits with those receiving social assistance and those not receiving any benefits and we find significant differences in their characteristics. Finally, we provide an analysis of the work disincentive effects of the unemployment and social assistance benefits by comparing these benefits to market wages and by analyzing the effect of being in the system on the duration of unemployment of two cohorts of unemployed in 1994 and 1995. We find that social assistance benefits are fairly generous for low income families with more children, individuals with these characteristics have a higher probability of receiving social assistance and they tend to stay unemployed longer than those people with relatively fewer dependants. We conclude that the social assistance scheme seems to be having some disincentive effects for at least one group in the population.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

Specification and estimation of stochastic multiple-output production and technical inefficiency

This paper presents a primal-based approach for specification and estimation of multiple-output production frontiers that allows simultaneous identification and estimation of determinants of technical inefficiency. The proposed model extends the technical efficiency effects model by Battese and Coelli (1995) to general multiple-output technologies. An empirical application using Swedish health care panel data from the years 1989–1994 is included. The key issue is to test for the effects on technical efficiency of an organizational reform implemented with the primary purpose to increase efficiency. The results reveal no significant effect on technical efficiency of the reform, but evidence of overall decreased technical efficiency and technical progress in the provision of health care over the studied time period are found.     

The high road and the low road to international competitiveness: Extending the neo‐Schumpeterian trade model beyond technology

Extending the neo‐Schumpeterian trade model, we estimate a ‘social‐gap’ model for a group of 17 OECD countries over the period 1975–1995. We find that government spending on social protection, employment protection regulations, union density, strike activity, and income security in the labor market (all measured in ‘gap’ form) are statistically significantly related to changes in international competitiveness. Specifically, we find some support for a Calmfors–Driffil, nonlinear, relation between cooperative labor relations and social spending patterns on the one hand, and international trade (and inward foreign investment) competitiveness on the other, implying that countries with relatively stronger institutional arrangements have better international economic performance than countries in the middle of the scale of conflict and cooperation. Our results indicate that models focusing solely on innovative effort are misspecified, and may suffer from an omitted variable bias caused by the absence of consideration of other institutional factors influencing international trade and investment.     

Incomes policies,inflation and strikes in Nigeria, 1950—1985: an empirical investigation

The effects of incomes policies and inflation on the incidence of strikes in Nigeria for the 1950–1985 period are examined. Studies have analysed extensively the determinants of strike activity in developed countries, however relatively little empirical analysis of strike determinants in less developed countries exists. An attempt is made to fill this gap by including key economic, organizational, and institutional variables into a model that is capable of predicting the variations in strikes in Nigeria, a developing country with a growing unionized sector. The estimated results of the model show that strikes in Nigeria are positively influenced by the level of inflation, the level of union membership, incomes policies, and time trend.     

The impact of the 1981 and 1994-1995 strikes on Major League Baseball attendance: a time-series analysis

Protracted labour disputes in professional team sports have become increasingly common in the past 30 years. Although each of the four major professional team sports in the USA have experienced episodes of labour strife, Major League Baseball has the longest and most frequent experience with labour-management conflict. Fans and the media claim with each incident permanent harm is done to baseball's standing as the national pastime. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether such claims can be supported by the empirical evidence. Utilizing time-series analysis, aggregate attendance at professional baseball games is examined. The evidence presented suggests that although the most protracted periods of labour discord had short-term impacts on attendance, there is no empirical evidence that these exogenous shocks had any long-term effects.     

Competitive balance versus competitive intensity before a match: is one of these two concepts more relevant in explaining attendance? The case of the French football Ligue 1 over the period 2008–2011

The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of attendance at French football Ligue 1 matches over the period 2008–2011 with an emphasis on examining the effects of both competitive balance and intensity before a match. Competitive balance is measured by the point difference between the two teams concerned by a match in the championship. Competitive intensity is measured by the point difference for the home team in relation to ranks with sporting stakes. Results show that competitive balance has an insignificant impact whereas competitive intensity has a significantly positive impact. Implications are drawn.     

All out,all the time? Evidence of dynamic effort in major league baseball

This paper presents evidence that effort varies according to players’ positions in the contract cycle using 2007 through 2011 data on Major League Baseball (MLB) non-pitchers eligible for free agency. While controlling for time-invariant player traits, fixed-effect regression modelling produces evidence that MLB players exhibit contract-year increases in adjusted on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS+) in the final years of contracts and declines in OPS+ in the initial years of long-term contracts. The estimated contract-year boost is driven disproportionately by the best offensive performances, while estimated shirking effects are concentrated among the weakest. The results are not driven by the hitting performance of defensive specialists, nor do the results change when the econometric model accounts for players who change teams. OPS+ offers advantages over some other offensive statistics (such as RBI) because it depends less on teammate performance and adjusts for differences among home ball parks and the American and National Leagues.     

Degree performance of Economics students in UK universities: absolute and relative performance in prior qualifications

We exploit individual‐level data on full cohorts of UK university leavers who were enrolled for an Economics degree during the period 1984–85 to 1992–93 or the academic year 1997–98. We analyse the determinants of degree performance and find that performance depends not only on prior qualifications as measured by A‐level scores, for example, but also on the individual student's ranking (based on their A‐level scores) within their cohort at their university. The students' performance is also enhanced by having previously studied mathematics, although there is no benefit from the prior study of Economics. We find that attendance at an Independent school has a negative effect on degree performance, and that there are comparatively few social class background effects. Females are more likely than males to obtain a good degree.     

Against the Wind: Labor Force Participation of Women and Economic Instability in Iran

In the last three decades, Iranian women's educational attainment has continuously increased while their fertility rate has fallen rapidly. Yet in spite of these developments, which in many countries have a positive effect on women's labor force participation, female labor force participation (FLFP) rates have remained at low levels. This paper argues that despite its overall static trend, FLFP of some Iranian women responded to economic pressures induced by macroeconomic instabilities. Looking at the Iranian economic crisis of 1994–5, the study shows that, controlling for individual fixed effects, married women in rural areas and never-married women in urban areas increased their participation rate by as much as 38 percent. No change in hours worked was found for any group of women. The differences in responses and their underlying reasons have policy implications for many developing countries.     

Children's schooling in Nicaragua: What is the link between educational achievement,borrowing, and gender?

The impact of credit has been widely studied, and yet little is known about the effect of formal versus informal loans. In this paper, we contrast the two and their impact on children's schooling using longitudinal data from Nicaragua. To address endogeneity, we utilize both household fixed effects and locality–year fixed effects. Our results indicate that, on average, children from borrowing households fare worse than children from nonborrowing households, with male borrowers having a disproportionately negative effect on boys, and vice versa for girls and female borrowers. Informal credit is found to have a protective effect on school attendance, but the effects of formal and informal credit on cumulative schooling are found to be statistically equivalent. However, this appears to mask considerable heterogeneity within informal borrowing.     

The effects of welfare and tax reform: the material well-being of single mothers in the 1980s and 1990s

The tax and welfare programs that provide income and in-kind benefits to single mothers have changed dramatically in recent years. These changes began as far back as the mid-1980s and culminated with the 1996 welfare law that ‘ended welfare as we knew it.’ These tax and welfare changes have sharply increased the employment of single mothers and cut welfare rolls. However, little is know about the effects of these policy changes on the material well-being of single mothers and their children. Studies of those leaving welfare have found that a substantial percentage have problems paying rent, purchasing enough food, and paying utility bills. Other studies found a decline in income among the worst-off single mothers after 1994 or 1995. The goal of this paper is to examine the material well-being of single mothers and their families before and after recent welfare and tax reforms. Using data from two nationally representative household surveys we examine the consumption patterns of single mothers and their families from 1984–2000. We find that the material conditions of single mothers did not decline in recent years, either in absolute terms or relative to single childless women or married mothers. This pattern holds for the average single mother as well as for low-educated single mothers at both the 15th and 25th percentiles of the consumption distribution. In most cases, our evidence suggests that the material conditions of single mothers have improved slightly.     

Agricultural Productivity Growth and Household Food Security Improvement in Nepal

Nepal is one of the poorest countries in the world. Using the panel data of the Nepal Living Standard Measurement Survey (NLSS), the poverty rate in 1995–96 was estimated to be about 40%, while in 2003–04 it was estimated at roughly 30%. Political instability has prevented the development of industry and threatened the food security of poor people, but scholarship on the factors contributing to food security is incomplete; while the determinants of food security have been mentioned in past research, prior studies have analyzed cross‐sectional data and thus could not have omitted heterogeneity bias. This paper analyzes the change in agricultural productivity in real terms and the impact on household food security by using the panel data of NLSS in 1995–96 and 2003–04. This analysis reveals that growth is observed in real agricultural productivity in spite of land segmentation; the growth in agricultural productivity in real terms has a positive impact on household food security; and the lower a farmer's income becomes, the more positive its impact on food security. Therefore, advancements in agricultural productivity play a critical role in promoting food security at the individual and household levels.