Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the Principle of Effective Demand *

Abstract

The American Post Keynesians – those who attach importance to the capital ‘P’ and the absence of a hyphen between ‘post’ and ‘Keynesian’– claim to be Keynes' most literal interpreters or the ‘truest’ Keynesians (Holt et al. 1998 Holt, R. P.F., Rosser, J. B. Jr. and Wray, L. R. 1998. Paul Davidson's Economics Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper no. 251. Blithewood, NY (www.levy.org) [Google Scholar]: 17). This paper compares the Post Keynesian interpretation of the Principle of Effective Demand, i.e. the D/Z-model, with Keynes' own presentation in chapter 3 of the General Theory– and finds substantial differences. A re-interpretation of the D/Z-model is offered that would bring it into line with chapter 3.     

Adolphe Quetelet,the average man and the development of economic methodology *

Abstract

Quetelet's contribution to statistics has received adequate attention in Stigler (1986 Stigler, S. M. 1986. The History of Statistics. The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900, Cambridge & London, MA: Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar], 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]) and Porter's (1986) seminal works on the history of that scientific discipline. 24 24 See also Westergaard (1932 Westergaard, H. 1932. Contributions to the History of Statistics, London: King & Son.  [Google Scholar]: 167–70), Klein (1997 Klein, J. 1997. Statistical Visions in Time. A History of Time Series Analysis 1662–1938, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]: 122–31). Our contribution investigates Quetelet's influence on economic methodology. Other scholars have already investigated his influence on econometrics and empirical economics (Morgan 1990 Morgan, M. S. 1995. The History of Econometric Ideas, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [1990] [Google Scholar], Stigler 1999 Stigler, S. M. 1999. Statistics on the Table. The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods, Cambridge & London, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), but we argue that his influence on theoretical economics should be considered significant as well. We devote attention to Quetelet's concept of the ‘average man’. For this purpose we briefly summarize Quetelet's methodology and examine the evolution of his ideas as expressed in his published works. We then investigate his influence on Jevons's ‘calculus of pleasures and pains’ and on the statistical investigations of the German historical school. We argue that the history of statistics, and especially Quetelet's contribution, should not be neglected by historians of economic thought as it provides important insights into the development of economic methodology.     

Hayek and the General Theory ∗

Abstract

Hayek did not review the General Theory, but he criticized it in Profits, Interest and Investment (1939 Hayek, F. A. 1939. “Profits, interest and investment”. In Profits, Interest and Investment, London: Routledge & Sons.  [Google Scholar]) and in part IV of The Pure Theory of Capital (1941 Hayek, F. A. 1941. The Pure Theory of Capital, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.  [Google Scholar]). First, he showed that only exceptionally does greater consumption favour investment and employment. Second, he rejected Keynes's liquidity preference and maintained that only in an ‘extreme case’ might it be said that Keynes's theory of the rate of interest is valid. Although he correctly identified the gist of Keynes's theoretical innovation, his criticisms were already implicitly answered in the General Theory.     

Exchange market pressure: some caveats in empirical applications

The Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index, developed by Eichengreen et al. (1994 Eichengreen, B, Rose, AK and Wyplosz, C. 1994. Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European monetary system, NBER Working Paper No. 4898  [Google Scholar]), is widely used as a tool to signal whether pressure on a currency is softened or warded off through monetary authorities’ interventions or, rather, a currency crisis has originated. In this article we show how the index is sensitive to some assumptions behind the aggregation of the information available (exchange rates, interest rates and reserves), especially when emerging countries are involved. Specifically, we address the way exchange rate variations are computed and the impact of different definitions of the reserves, and we question the constancy of the weights adopted. These issues compound with the choice of a fixed threshold when crisis episodes are identified through the EMP index. As a result, one should exert caution in subsequent econometric analyses where a dependent binary variable is built to identify crisis periods.     

Structural changes and regional disparity in China's inflation: a revisit

The study re-examined the time series properties and regional disparities in Chinese inflation by extending the work of Chong, Zhang, and Feng (2011 Chong, Tai-Leeung, Terence, Ning Zhang and Feng, Qu. 2011. Structural Changes and Regional Disparity in China's Inflation. Economics Bulletien, 31(1): 572–583.  [Google Scholar]). For this purpose we employed the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one structural break and two structural breaks suggested by Lee and Strazicich (2003 Lee, Junsoo, Mark, C. and Strazicich. 2003. Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4): 1082–1089. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2004 Lee, J. and Strazicich, M. 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper 04–17, Boone, North Carolina: Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.  [Google Scholar]) and a recently developed ADF type unit root test with two structural breaks of Narayan and Popp (2010 Narayan, Paresh Kumar and Stephan Popp. 2010. A New Unit root test with Two Structural Breaks in Level and Slope at Unknown Time. Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9): 1425–1438. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We found that national, urban and rural series of the overall inflation series, clothing, and food, national series of education and residence and the rural series of residence and education are stationary. We also found regional disparity in Chinese inflation, but the disparities existed only in education inflation series.     

Another look at the spending response to the 2001 income tax rebates

This article revisits the spending response to the 2001 US tax rebates by focussing on two key aspects of how tax policy researchers use the Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX). These two attributes, which are often overlooked, are as follows: the measures used for consumption and the ‘outlier’ criteria applied to the data. First, I reproduce the results in Johnson et al. (2006 Johnson, DS, Parker, JA and Souleles, NS. 2006. Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. American Economic Review, 96: 1589–610. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), which (using the CEX) concluded that households immediately spent 20–40% of their rebates on nondurable consumption goods. Then, I show how making two changes – both of which are relied upon in the literature – affects their results. These adjustments reduce the estimated magnitude of the rebate's impact by as much as 100%.     

Beveridge's analysis of unemployment in 1909: the reserve of labour

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a rational reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of unemployment published in 1909. First and foremost, it shows that his theory of unemployment is coherent – what Beveridge refers to as ‘the reserve of labour’ represents ‘unemployment’ as a whole; unemployment is due to the imperfection of the labour market and associated friction and the organisation of the labour market is necessary. Second, it suggests that as early as 1909, a negative relationship already existed between unemployment and job vacancies and that the segmentation of the labour market and imperfect information are key factors of friction. The first part of the paper provides a reconstruction of Beveridge's theory of the reserve of labour (1909) including causes and factors of unemployment and unemployment policies. The second part shows that certain founding principles of the ‘Beveridge curve’ (Beveridge 1944 Beveridge, W. H. 1944 [1953]. Full Employment in a Free Society, London: George Allen and Unwin.  [Google Scholar] [1953]) were already to be found in his 1909 book and that links can be established between Beveridge (1909 Beveridge, W. H. 1909. Unemployment: A Problem of Industry, London: Longmans, Green and Co.  [Google Scholar]), Phelps (1970 Phelps, E. S. 1970. The new microeconomic in inflation and employment theory. The American Economic Review, 59(2): 147–60. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Pissarides (2000 Pissarides, C. A. 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.  [Google Scholar]).     

Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios

This article investigates the existence of a unit root in the consumption-income ratio for a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1960 to 2005. For that purpose, we first use recently developed unit root tests with good size and power. Second, we employ the more powerful panel unit root tests of Pesaran (2003 Pesaran, MH. 2003. A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence mimeo, Cambridge University [Google Scholar]) and Smith et al . (2004) that take the null of nonstationarity and a bootstrap version of the test of Hadri (2000 Hadri, K. 2000. Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3: 148–61. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) that takes stationarity as the null hypothesis. Overall, our confirmatory analysis renders clear-cut evidence that OECD consumption-income ratios contain a unit root.     

A Simple Model of Entrepreneurship for Principles of Economics Courses

The critical roles of entrepreneurs in creating, operating, and destroying markets, as well as their importance in driving long-term economic growth are still generally either absent from principles of economics texts or relegated to later chapters. The primary difficulties in explaining entrepreneurship at the principles level are the lack of a universally accepted definition, a plausible explanation of the demand for entrepreneurship, and a diagram that summarizes the impact of entrepreneurship on market equilibrium and growth—a definition, a story, and a picture. This article discusses how the notion of the stationary state associated with Schumpeter (1911 Schumpeter, J. A. 1911/1983. Theory of economic development., Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]/1983), Knight (1921 Knight, F. H. 1921/1971. Risk, uncertainty and profit, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]/1971), and Weber (1930 Weber, M. 1930/2002. The Protestant ethic and the spirit of capitalism, New York: Scribner's.  [Google Scholar]/2002) can provide a framework for integrating the entrepreneur into the early part of principles of economics courses.     

Emil Lederer’s Theory of Economic Fluctuations and the Role of Financial Institutions

Abstract

Emil Lederer was characterized as the “leading academic socialist of Germany in the 1920’s” by Joseph Schumpeter and was a highly respected economist of his time. However, most aspects of his work remain totally unexplored. This paper focuses on Emil Lederer’s theory of economic fluctuations defending the thesis that certain aspects of Lederer’s conceptualization of economic fluctuations underwent considerable modifications when his 1925 article Konjunktur und Krisen is compared with his 1938 book Technical Progress and Unemployment, a shift unacknowledged so far in the literature. In his first attempt to tackle the issue, in Konjunktur und Krisen (1925), Lederer had constructed an explanation consistent with the so-called “disproportionality theory” introduced by Tugan-Baranowsky (codified as “early Lederer”). However, Lederer’s conception of the business cycle during the 1930s and especially in his major work Technical Progress and Unemployment underwent considerable modifications. Lederer’s (1938 Lederer, E. 1938. Technical Progress and Unemployment, Geneva: King and Son.  [Google Scholar]) analysis is, apparently, very ‘Schumpeterian’ (codified as “late Lederer”). In this version of his theory, the cycle is explained by supply-side factors, and more specifically by technical change. Additionally, Lederer’s view on the role of financial institutions (credit and banks) with regards to business cycles is analysed. Lederer avoided attributing a causative role to monetary factors. The interrelation between ‘real’ factors and financial institutions constitutes an essential element in his analysis of the business cycle.     

Estimating short and long-run relationships: a guide for the applied economist

Many applied economists face problems in selecting an appropriate technique to estimate short and long-run relationships with the time series methods. This article reviews three alternative approaches viz., general to specific, vector autoregressions and the vector error correction models. As in other methodological controversies, definite answers are difficult. It is suggested that if these techniques are seen as tools to summarize data, as in Smith (2000 Smith, RP. 2000. “Unit Roots and all that: the impact of time-series methods on macroeconomics”. In Macroeconomics and the Real World, Edited by: Backhouse, RE. and Salanti, A. 199–215. Oxford: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar]), often there maybe only minor differences in their estimates. Therefore a computationally attractive technique is likely to be popular.     

The Alchemy of the Can Opener: How an Austrian Economist Found Himself Supporting Dictatorial Imposition of a Liberal Order

Why would Hayek, the great critic of ‘rational constructivism’ and defender of spontaneous orders, think a transitional dictatorship could work? Here I attempt to dissect the alchemy of ‘turning a constitution into a can opener’ as Farrant &; McPhail (2014 Farrant, A., &; McPhail, E. (2014) Can a Dictator Turn a Constitution into a Can-opener: F. A. Hayek and the Alchemy of Transitional Dictatorship in Chile, Review of Political Economy, 26(3), pp. 331–348.[Taylor &; Francis Online] , [Google Scholar]) put it. Hayek argues against the imposition by an external source of order upon a society. He stresses the importance of an evolving culture and tradition, noting that they should be spontaneous orders not command systems, and that the culture of a society must be accepting and supportive of its institutions. Sometimes the culture is more important than the formal institutions of a society for efficiency. So why would Hayek argue that a transitional dictator could impose a constitution upon the people? It will be argued here that if Hayek had pursued the theoretical line set out in his Constitution of Liberty, he might have responded to the situation in Chile differently.     

External Constraint and Financial Crises with Balance Sheet Effects

This article investigates the dynamic implications of Krugman's (1999 Krugman, P. 1999. Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4): 459–472. (doi:10.1023/A:1008741113074)[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) model of financial crises with balance-sheet effects, which has a considerable impact on the literature of international financial crisis. Considering explicitly the wealth-accumulation constraint and the external equilibrium condition, I describe an emerging-market financial crisis as a jump from an unstable dynamic trajectory to a stable one, instead of a jump from a ‘good’ to a ‘bad’ equilibrium with zero investment and zero foreign debt. By discriminating the financial crises according to the severity of the negative impacts of some internal and external factors, this article also adds some insights into the anti-crisis policy.     

Empirical relevance of the Hillman condition for revealed comparative advantage: 10 stylized facts

The theoretically necessary and sufficient condition for the correspondence between ‘revealed’ comparative advantage and pre-trade relative prices derived by Hillman (1980 Hillman, AL. 1980. Observations on the relation between ‘revealed comparative advantage’ and comparative advantage as indicated by pre-trade relative prices. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 116: 315–21. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) is analysed empirically for virtually all countries of the world over an extended period of time. This yields 10 stylized facts, including that (i) violations of the Hillman condition are small as a share of the number of observations, but substantial as a share of the value of world exports, (ii) violations occur relatively frequently in the period 1970–1984 and more rarely in the period 1985–1997 and (iii) violations occur foremost in primary product and natural resource intensive sectors and for countries in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe. An additional bonus of verifying the Hillman condition in empirical research is its ability to identify erroneously classified trade flows.     

Rethinking the Links between Human Relationships and Economic Efficiency Using Local Institutions: The Case of Two Emerging Economies

Emerging countries around the world have been growing fast over the last thirty years, with most of these countries basing their economic development on a state capitalism. Within these countries, there is a concentration of wealth in the hands of a few people. This fact confirms the analysis of Thorstein Veblen (1898 Veblen, Thorstein. “Why Is Economics Not an Evolutionary Sciences?” Quarterly Journal of Economics 12, 2 (1898): 373–397.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) who shows the gap that exists between the vested interest of the rich and the unmet needs of the poor. The world happiness report (Helliwell, Layard and Sachs 2016 Helliwell, John F., Richard Layard and Jeffrey Sachs, eds. World Happiness Report 2016. World Happiness, 2016. Available at http://worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/03/HR-V1_web.pdf. Accessed December 1, 2016. [Google Scholar]) also shows for the emerging economies a gap between the world rank in economic growth and in wellbeing. I propose a new paradigm of development for two emerging economies, Brazil and South Africa, by putting human development in the center of economic development and by using different approaches in economics and psychology. My analysis links the theories of Carl Shapiro and Joseph E. Stiglitz regarding “efficiency wages” (1984 Shapiro, Carl and Joseph E. Stiglitz. “Equilibrium Unemployment as Worker Disciplines Devices.” American Economic Review 74, 3 (1984): 433–444.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with the complexity approach (Le Moigne 1995 Le Moigne, Jean-Louis. La modélisation des systèmes complexes. Paris, France: Dunod, 1995. [Google Scholar]). This approach combines the results of positive psychology (Kahneman 2011 Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. London, UK: Penguin, 2011. [Google Scholar]) with the role of local institutions for improving the economic development of emerging economies (Deaton 2016 Deaton, Angus. La grande évasion: Santé, richesse et origine des inégalités. Paris, France: PUF, [2015] 2016. [Google Scholar]). In the first section of the article, I examine definitions of economic and human wealth. In the second section, I analyze the gaps that exist between the standard-of-living ranking and the wellbeing ranking for both Brazil and South Africa in order to present meso-happiness indexes linking the micro- and macro-levels of human wealth. In the last section, I analyze the way local institutions in Brazil and South Africa could create dynamic links for these countries’ efficient functioning in the world economy.     

Further investigation of the uncertain trend in US GDP

The presence of deterministic or stochastic trend in US GDP has been a continuing debate in the literature of macroeconomics. Ben-David and Papell (1995 Ben-David, D and Papell, DH. 1995. The great wars, the great crash, and steady growth: some new evidence about an old stylized. Journal of Monetary Economics, 36: 453–75. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) found evidence in favour of trend stationarity using the secular sample of Maddison (1991 Maddison, A. 1991. Dynamics Forces in Capitalist Development: A Long-Run Comparative View, Oxford: Oxford University Press.  [Google Scholar]). More recently, Murray and Nelson (2000 Murray, CJ and Nelson, CR. 2000. The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46: 79–95. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) correctly criticized this finding arguing that the Maddision data are plagued with additive outliers (AO), which bias inference towards stationarity. Hence, they propose to set the secular sample aside and conduct inference using a more homogeneous but shorter time-span post-WWII sample. In this article we re-visit the Maddison data by employing a test that is robust against AO's. Our results suggest the US GDP can be modelled as trend stationary process     

A model of the used car market with lemons and leasing

This article extends Kim's (1985 Kim, J-C. 1985. The market for lemons reconsidered: a model of the used car market with asymmetric information. American Economic Review, 75: 836–43.  [Google Scholar]) model of the used car market with asymmetric information to examine the possible impacts of leasing and Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) programs on the average quality of traded used cars in the market. The author assumed that a consumer can buy or lease a new car, or he/she can buy a used or a CPO car. While, like Kim (1985 Kim, J-C. 1985. The market for lemons reconsidered: a model of the used car market with asymmetric information. American Economic Review, 75: 836–43.  [Google Scholar]), the author assumed that the quality of a car depends on the maintenance level, the maintenance level in this model is chosen when a car is still a ‘new’ car, i.e. after the warranty ends. The model implied that the average quality of traded used cars can be either higher or lower than the average quality of nontraded used cars. The study also found that leasing and CPO have substantially improved the information mechanism between buyers and sellers of used cars, which, in turn, has helped reduce adverse selection and improved the average quality of traded used cars in the market.     

Labour values and energy values: some developments on the common substance of value since 1867

Abstract

Marx’s Das Kapital (1867) singled out labour as the common substance of value in all commodities. Costanza (1980 Costanza, Robert. 1980. “Embodied Energy and Economic Valuation.” Science 210 (4475): 1219–1224. doi:10.1126/science.210.4475.1219[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) in Science chose energy and propagated energy values (a century after Engels criticised Podolinsky on energy). Mainstream economists quickly questioned Marx’s logic. Pareto advocated simultaneous equations, unaware of their use by Mühlpfordt and Dmitriev. Contributions by Charasoff and Potron were also overlooked. Already in 1927, Leontief and Sraffa knew how to replace labour values by other commodity values. Generalising Sraffa’s subsystems and using “percentage formulas” for price-value deviations, I discuss some empirical results for labour or energy theories of value.     

Modelling the dynamics of EU economic sentiment indicators: an interaction-based approach

This article estimates a simple univariate model of expectation or opinion formation in continuous time adapting a ‘canonical’ stochastic model of collective opinion dynamics (Weidlich and Haag, 1983 Weidlich, W, and Haag, G, 1983. Concepts and Models of a Quantitative Sociology. Berlin: Springer; 1983.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]; Lux, 1995 Lux, T, 1995. Herd behavior, bubbles and crashes, The Economic Journal 105 (1995), pp. 881–96.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2009a Lux, T, 2009a. Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 72 (2009a), pp. 638–55.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This framework is applied to a selected data set on survey-based expectations from the rich EU business and consumer survey database for 12 European countries. The model parameters are estimated through Maximum Likelihood (ML) and numerical solution of the transient probability density functions for the resulting stochastic process. The model's success is assessed with respect to its out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to univariate Time Series (TS) models of the Autoregressive Moving Average model, ARMA(p,?q) and Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average, ARFIMA(p,?d,?q) varieties. These tests speak for a slight superiority of the canonical opinion dynamics model over the alternatives in the majority of cases.