Family labour force participation: Multinomial logit estimates

Studies of labour force participation choices are mostly aimed at explaining determinants of participation for individuals. The objective of this study is the empirical estimation of the parameters of family participation decisions.

Family participation decisions can be analysed as a choice problem of a family between a finite number of distinct alternatives. The appropriate estimation procedure for a model involving choice among multiple discrete alternatives requires a statistical technique different from ordinary least squares. In this study I use the multinomial logit model. A logit model allows me to explain the probability that a particular participation alternative will be chosen by a family as a function of a set of independent variables.

It is found that economic variables such as wage rates and wealth, play a significant role in affecting the probabilities of choosing a particular labour force participation alternative. This study shows that an increase in the market wage for a family member not only increases the probability of labour force participation for that family member, but at the same time also reduces the probability of participation for his or her partner. Hence there is both a pure and a cross-substitution effect in participation. There is also an income effect. As wealth increases families will, in some sense, buy more leisure. Furthermore, they will allocate the extra leisure in a certain order: it is found in this study that the wife's probability of participation reduces sooner and faster than the husband's probability, as wealth increases.     

Does attribute order influence attribute-information processing in discrete choice experiments?

The existing empirical evidence shows that both contingent valuation and discrete choice experiment (DCE) methods are susceptible to various ordering effects. However, very few studies have analysed attribute-ordering effects in DCEs, and no study has investigated their potential influence on information-processing strategies, such as attribute non-attendance (ANA). This paper tests for attribute-ordering effects and examines whether the order of attributes describing the alternatives affects respondents’ propensity to attend to or ignore an attribute. A split-sample approach is used, where one sample received a DCE version in which the positions of the first and last non-monetary attributes are switched across the sequence of choice tasks compared with the other sample. The results show that attribute order does not affect welfare estimates in a significant way under the standard assumption of full attribute attendance, thus rejecting the notion of procedural bias. However, the welfare estimates for the attributes whose order was reversed and the share of respondents who ignored them differ significantly between the two attribute-ordering treatments once ANA behaviour is accounted for in the estimated choice models. These results highlight the important role of information-processing strategies in the design and evaluation of DCEs.     

A trivariate model of participation,fertility and wages: the Italian case

Italy has unusually low fertility by OECD standards, accompaniedby unusually low female participation in paid work. This paperaddresses the issue of the empirical relationship between fertility,female participation in the labour market and wages with theseItalian 'peculiarities' as a backcloth. A trivariate model ofparticipation, fertility and wages has been constructed andestimated using three pooled cross-sections of Italian microdata, allowing for the identification of cohort effects. Thismodel follows a 'purist' approach: the participation and fertilitydecisions, as well as the wage equation, are modelled as completelyjoint. The cohort effects turn out to be significant: the pointestimates do not appear to confirm actual trends, which arenegative for fertility and positive for participation. The femalewage is the most important variable influencing the propensityto have children and the propensity to participate in the labourmarket, casting doubt on suggestions that observed trends arethe products of shifts in women's 'tastes'.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHILD CARE DEMAND IN SWITZERLAND

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper analyzes the demand of Swiss families for child care facilities. A choice experiment is used to study the effects of the facilities' characteristics as well as socio-economic factors on the selected child care mode. The experimental data are analyzed using a discrete choice model with multinomial logit specification. The results suggest that the demand for extra-familial day care could be considerably higher than that observed from the actual choices constrained by insufficient provision of affordable day care. The price, access, and the quality of service as well as parents' income and education have important impacts on the choice of the mode of care.     

ACTIVE LABOR MARKET PROGRAMS AND REGIONAL MOBILITY OF LABOR: EVIDENCE FROM THE SWEDISH RECESSION, 1994–1995

This paper addresses the impact of active labor market programs on interregional migration in Sweden. The purpose of the study is to determine the extent to which the programs, which provide training and labor market assistance to jobless individuals, induce participants to migrate. Analysis is based on data registers compiled in 1994 and 1995 by Statistics Sweden and the Labor Market Board of Sweden. The paper specifies and estimates a two‐equation model of participation and subsequent migration. The model, which is estimated by the method of maximum simulated likelihood, accounts for the role of program participation as an endogenous choice variable in the decision to migrate. In an attempt to capture the effect of migrant self‐selection, the estimation approach also controls for unobserved heterogeneity in the participation and migration equations. Results of the study indicate a significant positive impact of participation on subsequent mobility for males. This result is robust with respect to alternative specifications of the migration equation and alternative formulations of the model for program participation. For females, the evidence of program impacts is mixed and it appears to be sensitive to the statistical formulation of the model. (JEL J38, J61)     

What Motivates Members to Participate in Co‐operative and Mutual Businesses?

Abstract *** : This article reports the findings of a project entitled ‘The participation of members in mutual businesses’. A previous project developed a theoretical model of what makes people participate, focusing on the participation of public service users in council housing and social care services. The current project builds on this work, applying the ‘mutual incentives model’ to a population sample of area committee members and a random sample of non‐participant members of a very large UK consumer co‐operative, the Co‐operative Group. Two arguments are presented as to why such research is needed. First, member participation in co‐operative and mutual businesses is becoming an important issue both for this sector and more generally for public policy. Second, a comparison between a public services setting and a co‐operative setting enables us to extend and further test the theoretical model. Two main features of the model are outlined: a ‘mutual incentives theory’ that goes beyond other models to combine individualistic and collectivistic motivations, and the ‘participation chain’, a synthesis of existing knowledge that joins motivations to three ‘links’ that we call ‘resources’, ‘mobilization’ and ‘dynamics’. The article then summarizes the project methodology, and reports the main findings. As in the public services project, on the ‘demand’ side, collectivistic incentives prove to be dominant over individualistic, but with some individual ‘internal’ benefits also being important. On the ‘supply’ side, skills derived from previous experience were important, as were a positive evaluation of opportunities to participate, and recruitment through existing networks. We then compare the findings to those from the public service users and from a regional co‐operative society; Oxford, Swindon and Gloucester Co‐op. Collective motivations are dominant in all three datasets, but are shown to vary in interesting ways that have important implications for member participation strategies.     

Rational Abstention and the Congressional Vote Choice

Research on voting, particularly on legislative behavior, tends to focus on the choices of those casting ballots. Yet, intuitively, abstentions and vote choice should be jointly determined. As such, the relevance of participation depends upon both the extent to which it can be explained by the costs and the benefits of voting and on the nature of the interactions between participation and preferences. To this end, we provide a framework for explaining roll call behavior that simultaneously considers legislators' decisions about whether and how to vote. Application to roll call voting in the 104th Congress finds that abstention and voting choices are integrated; our approach generates sensible and substantively important results which yield important insights into legislative behavior and public policy.     

Preference Heterogeneity in the Structural Estimation of Efficient Pigovian Incentives for Insecticide Spraying to Reduce Malaria

This paper bridges the theoretical and empirical literatures on the role of preference heterogeneity in characterizing externalities related to disease transmission. We use a theoretical structure similar to locational sorting models, which characterize equilibria in terms of marginal individuals who are indifferent between locations. In our case, the ‘locations’ are binary, consisting of whether or not to take a discrete preventative action. Individual heterogeneity arises in this structure due to variation in the costs and disutility associated with prevention. We demonstrate application of this approach in the context of participation in insecticide-based indoor residual spraying programs for malaria control in northern Uganda. We identify the parameters of our theoretical model using a stated preference choice experiment combined with estimates from published epidemiological studies. The model implies that Pigovian subsidies for participation in this context should decrease household malaria risk by 19–25%. Our approach can be applied to other bioeconomic externalities with spillovers from discrete preventative actions, including agricultural pest management and the control of pest infestations and invasive species.     

中国服务业发展的驱动力：基于产业关联视角的实证检验——兼论“后金融危机”时代中国服务业发展的战略选择

服务业发展的驱动力决定服务业发展的质量和效率。本文基于产业关联视角实证检验了中国服务业发展的驱动力,结果发现中国服务业同农业和制造业的外部产业关联良性交互关系还没有很好的形成,这主要表现在中国制造业和农业发展对服务业发展的引致效果较微弱,而且制造业产出对服务业产出的引致呈现出均质性特征,特别是没有形成对生产性服务的大量引致性需求。因此,转变服务业的发展方式,提高生产性服务业同本土制造业和农业的产业关联程度,促进制造业和农业的产业升级,是“后金融危机”时代我国现代服务业发展的重要战略目标。     

Structural reliability of conjoint measurement in health care: an empirical investigation

This paper is concerned with the structural reliability of conjoint measurement when applied in a health care setting. The clinical context was the diagnosis and treatment of knee injuries. A conjoint measurement study was conducted which used the pairwise choice approach to preference elicitation. Each choice included two scenarios: a conventional treatment approach to management (arthroscopy) and an approach using magnetic resonance imaging. In order to test for structural reliability two separate conjoint measurement exercises were conducted: exercise A where scenarios were defined in terms of three attributes and exercise B where scenarios included all four attributes. The assessment of structural reliability involved a comparison of two random effects probit models, for exercises A and B. Data were collected on a total of 176 students of sports science. The results strongly indicate that the models for the two exercises are different, although the instability is limited to the constant term and a single model attribute (i.e. the avoidance of surgery). The finding of instability in the constant coefficient raises important questions about the appropriateness of labelling scenarios in conjoint measurement exercises.     

基础设施投资的经济增长效应

基础设施总投资、交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资以及电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出具有较大、持久的正影响,时滞也相对较短;电力、煤气及水生产与供应投资对产出的正影响更大,并且对交通运输仓储和邮电通信投资也具有较大的正影响。我国基础设施投资效应的这些重要特征,对于我国宏观经济政策的制定、实施时机和基础设施投资领域的选择都具有重要意义。     

Length of time spent in Chapter 11 bankruptcy: a censored partial regression model

This paper investigates original issuers of high yield bonds in Chapter 11 bankruptcy to determine which factors affect the length of time spent in Chapter 11. In order to do this analysis a flexible new duration model is proposed, the censored partial regression model. This model allows consideration of the effect of some variables on the duration using a nonparametric functional form. It is found that the choice of prepackaged Chapter 11, the length of time negotiating before filling for Chapter 11, the profitability, the highly leveraged transactions, the participation on different disputes, the role of vulture funds and some institutional changes turn out to be relevant to analyse this duration.     

Escaping the Middle‐Income Trap in Southeast Asia: Micro Evidence on Innovation,Productivity, and Globalization

Microdata studies on innovation, productivity, and globalization are relatively new to the Southeast Asian region. Evidence from microdata studies in middle‐income countries provide valuable evidence for policymaking aimed at graduating these countries to high‐income status. Globalization via trade and foreign direct investment should continue to be important development strategies. A more nuanced approach focusing on exporters and potential exporters, especially SMEs, are likely to be needed. The extent of foreign participation is also likely to have important implications for technological spillovers.     

A new approach to understanding labour supply of disabled people

The main interest of this article is to propose an individual utility maximization model to explain the low participation of disabled people. We account for heterogeneity of preferences and furthermore time of self-caring for disabled individuals is considered as an argument in the utility function. The hours of work decided by disabled individuals are neither homogeneous (they depend on unknown characteristics) nor continuous (discrete choice sets). We use data of 4790 households from the Spanish Survey of Disability, Personal Autonomy and Dependency and find association between time of informal care and labour participation and, consequently, the choice between jobs.     

Expanded newborn screening for genetic and metabolic disorders: modeling costs and outcomes

Newborn screening for genetic and metabolic disorders is a state-based public health program in the United States, for the elimination and/or reduction of associated mortality, morbidity, and disabilities. As new technologies for newborn screening and new interventions for treatment are realized, it will be increasingly important for health leaders and policymakers to have data to inform their decisions regarding expanding newborn testing. The entire costs of a screening program, including not only instrumentation but also labor and time costs; initial, repeat, and confirmatory testing; screening sensitivity and specificity; and short and long-term followup, should be considered in decisions regarding expansion of screening programs. The decision model cited in this study can serve as a tool in exploring alternatives for critical decisions regarding the addition of new disorders to existing newborn screening panels. The evaluation of genetic disorders in this study can be used as a prototype of an approach to evaluating screening for any newborn genetic/metabolic disorder.     

The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption

Economic analysis of chemical pesticide use has shown that the interactions between plants, pests, damage control technology and state of the ecosystem are important variables to be considered. Hence, a bio-economic model was developed for the assessment of Bt variety and pesticide-based control strategies of the cotton-bollworm in China. The model simulates plant growth, the dynamics of pest populations and of natural enemies. The model predictions are used as major inputs for a stochastic micro-level profit model of alternative control strategies.Results show that: (1) productivity effects of Bt varieties and pesticide use depend on the action of natural control agents, and (2) the profitability of damage control measures increases with the severity of ecosystem disruption. The findings highlight the importance of the choice of the counterfactual scenario in the assessment of the impact of agricultural biotechnology. Also, some doubts are raised whether the high benefits of Bt cotton varieties claimed by previous studies based on cross section comparisons are realistic.     

Human Capital Theory and Education Policy in Australia

The human capital model is the basis of neo-classical analysis of labour markets, education and economic growth. However, education policy in Australia has been influenced by models based on screening theory and public choice theory which yield the policy implication that reductions in education spending are generally desirable. In this paper, the competing models, and the evidence supporting them, are surveyed. It is concluded that the human capital model is strongly supported by the available evidence. The predictions of screening models are generally not supported by empirical tests, except where they coincide with those of the human capital model. The main evidence supporting the public choice model, derived from the literature on educational production functions, is shown to be deficient. The principal policy conclusion of the paper is that the negative effects of recent cuts in education spending will outweigh any benefits achieved through reductions in public debt.     

供给侧改革下科技社团公共服务供给绩效研究

近年来我国社会组织积极参与公共服务,但各类社会组织参与效果有所不同,同时,社会各界也缺乏对社会组织提供公共服务绩效水平的客观科学衡量方法。为此,选取多层次模糊分析法构建了一套多层次评估体系,用于评估科技社团公共服务供给绩效水平,并对武汉市科技社团进行了实证分析。结合实证模型结果,深入探析了当前武汉市科技社团公共服务供给的绩效水平及现实困境,并有针对性地提出了对策与建议。     

GIS和引力多边形方法在公共设施服务域研究中的应用--以上海浦东新区综合医院为例

服务域分析是公共设施布局和规划中的重要方法,GIS技术为设施区位和服务域研究提供了重要的分析环境。文章以地理学区位分析理论中的空间相互作用模型为基础,提出了基于引力模型的设施服务域分析———引力多边形方法;并在GIS分析环境,建立了以Huff模型为例的引力多边形服务域算法。通过上海浦东新区综合医院服务域的实例研究,展现了引力多边形方法在公共设施服务域和区位分析中的重要作用。     

基于客户需求的制造企业服务创新模型与策略研究

制造与服务的融合发展使基于客户需求的服务创新成为制造企业实现服务化转型和价值链升级的必然战略选择。将客户需求划分为产品导向需求、效用导向需求和服务导向需求,在此基础上,构建了包括客户需求挖掘与定位、服务创新资源评价、基于网络资源重组的服务创新、服务创新结果交付、服务创新成果巩固5个阶段及客户全程参与、沟通噪音消除两种支持活动的制造企业服务创新模型,并从营销、合同、定制化、合作网络和可持续发展5个方面给出了制造企业服务创新的具体策略。