Capital account liberalization and dynamic price discovery: evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks

We analyse the effects of a recent financial reform (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect) that enables cross-market investment between Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Using a VECM, we find that the reform announcement considerably narrows the equilibrium level of price disparity and strengthens the price comovement of shares that are cross-listed in both markets. The estimated equilibrium relationship is in support of the relative law of one price. We find that both markets adjust in response to a disequilibrium in price disparity, leading to a sizeable error correction activity. The Shanghai market contributes to approximately two-thirds of the price discovery process. Competition and informativeness of trading affect the relative role of price discovery in each market. Finally, the reform implementation reinforces the long-run cointegration relationship and strengthens the short-run price comovements of cross-listed stocks despite the widening price disparity during the period.     

Theory summary on price discovery function of futures market

Price discovery is the basic function of futures market, and whether the futures market has the function of price discovery is an important research field for scholars both at home and abroad. This paper classifies the test methods and models on a basis of previous research, and introduces the applicable premise of research methods and models as well as the major research achievements of scholars at home and abroad, and also reviews the shortcomings of test methods and models.     

Price discovery and volatility spillover in spot and futures markets: evidences from steel-related commodities in China

The price discovery and spillover effect are significant indicators in futures markets. This study examines the price discovery and spillover effects using vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic for seven types of steel products in Chinese spot and futures markets. The results show that the price discovery exists in all of steel futures market. It is also confirmed that futures prices in all items are mainly leading spot prices via permanent-transitory and information share. In the results of spillover effects, it is found that wire rod, coking coal, coke and silico-manganese have the effects between spot and futures market. In rebar market, there is the spillover effect from spot to futures. This information about futures prices can help the market participants to make decisions when they predict the spot prices.     

Intraday market effects in electronic soybean futures market during non-trading and trading hour announcements

This article investigates market reactions to major United States Department of Agriculture announcements during non-trading and trading hours in the soybean futures market using microstructure data. Following report release, volume increases and remains elevated for up to 15 to 20 minutes. The volume spikes for the non-trading releases relative to the trading releases, but are identical after the first reaction. Report releases during non-trading hours cause a large spike in volatility at the onset of trading which subsides quickly. In contrast, releases during trading hours result in a smaller volatility spike, which extends for 5–6 min at a higher magnitude. Adjusting volatility by normal trading volatility indicates that volatility in trading hour release is higher in both immediate response and persistence. Return correlations provide little evidence to support systematic under- or overreaction in prices regardless of when the report is released reflecting the efficiency of the market.     

Price transmission and local market power: empirical evidence from the Austrian gasoline market

We analyse the impact of local market power on price margins and different dimensions of price adjustment dynamics (speed and asymmetry of price transmission) using data for a large number of individual gasoline stations in Austria. Specific attention is paid to threshold effects in price adjustment. Our results clearly suggest that the speed of price transmission between the Brent crude oil index and retail diesel prices is higher in a more competitive environment. While evidence on the relationship between local market power and asymmetries in the speed of price adjustment is mixed, our findings regarding asymmetries in price thresholds are clear: in regions where competition from neighbouring rivals is weak and/or consumers’ price elasticity of demand is low (stations located on the highway), positive thresholds significantly exceed negative ones, which corresponds to the ‘rockets and feathers phenomenon’. As expected, we observe that prices are lower in more competitive local markets.     

Investor recognition and liquidity: evidence from dual listing on the NYSE and NASDAQ

This article examines the impact of the NYSE firms’ decision to dual list on NASDAQ and the resultant trading liquidity, after controlling for the endogeneity of the decision. Using a simultaneous system of equations approach, we find evidence that dual listing lowers transaction costs, but does not lead to any significant improvement in investor recognition. Further, the improvement in market quality due to dual listing on NASDAQ does generate, albeit somewhat weak, positive cumulative abnormal returns surrounding the dual listing.     

期货市场与现货市场之间的价格研究--中国农产品市场的经验

本文借助于信息共享模型与波动溢出效应模型对我国大豆和小麦的期、现货市场之间的价格发现进行了多层次的实证研究,定量描述了期、现货市场在价格发现中作用的大小,深入刻画了我国农产品期、现货市场之间的动态关系.研究结果显示:大豆期、现货价格之间存在双向引导关系,小麦仅存在期货对现货的单向引导关系;期、现货市场均扮演着重要的价格发现角色,且期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位;期、现货市场之间均存在双向波动溢出关系,但现货市场来自期货市场的波动溢出效应均强于期货市场来自现货市场的波动溢出效应;并且,随着期货市场的发展,期、现货市场之间的波动溢出程度均呈逐渐增强态势.     

Environmental disclosure and stock market liquidity: evidence from Arab MENA emerging markets

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of environmental disclosure levels on the stock market liquidity of Arab Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) companies. For that, a self-constructed disclosure index was applied to the annual reports for the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 and the bid-ask spread was used as a proxy for stock market liquidity. Results indicate that levels of environmental disclosure in MENA companies are quite low. In addition, using a sample of 276 firm-year observations, multivariate analysis shows that the higher the level of environmental disclosure provided in the annual reports, the lower the spread between the market bid and ask prices, thereby indicating an increase in stock market liquidity.     

Price competition and the Bertrand model: the paradox of the German mobile discount market

We investigate the degree of price competition among telecommunication firms. Underlying a Bertrand model of price competition, we empirically model pricing behaviour in an oligopoly. We analyse panel data of individual pricing information of mobile phone contracts offered between 2011 and 2017. We provide empirical evidence that price differences as well as reputational effects serve as a signal to buyers and significantly affect market demand. Additionally, we find that brands lead to an increase in demand and thus are able to generate spillover effects even after price increase.     

Testing the effect of technical analysis on market quality and order book dynamics

We find empirical support for the theoretical finding in agent-based models of limit order book markets that the effect of technical trading on market quality is not positive. When signals occur, technical traders lower liquidity as proxied by the relative spread, the effective spread, the realized spread, the dispersion and the slope in the order book. Technical trading is also found to be accompanied by rising volatility. There is overall strong empirical support against the hypothesis that technical trading has no effect on order book dynamics.     

Herding on lottery-type stocks: evidence from the Chinese stock market

Previous studies have provided evidence that investors have gambling propensity in the stock market and exhibit a preference for lottery-type stocks. In this study, we use high total skewness and high maximum daily return (MAX) to measure lottery-type stocks and examine whether investors do exhibit distinct herding pattern in these stock types. Empirical results show that investors display stronger herding among lottery-type stocks, thereby indicating that such stocks induce correlated behaviour with the investors. In addition, we find that stocks with the highest skewness exhibit stronger herding under upmarkets, whereas stocks with the lowest skewness display stronger herding under downmarkets. Regarding the highest MAX portfolio, no significant herding asymmetry is seen between upmarket and downmarket. The results reported in this article demonstrate that comovement in stock returns may be partly attributed to the nonstandard preferences of investors in the stock market.     

Information disclosure and price manipulation during the pre-closing session: evidence from an order-driven market

On 20 February 2012, the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation launched an order-matching simulation mechanism for five minutes during the start of the pre-closing session, in order to increase information disclosure during this period (13:25–13:30). Pre-closing information disclosure significantly reduces both trading costs and closing-price volatility, as well as price manipulation. The decrease in price manipulation found in this work is due to pre-closing information disclosure, not the behaviour of investors shifting to an earlier time. Further, if a stock price rises or falls by more than 3.5% in the simulation in the last minute during the closing session, trading of the stock will be suspended for two minutes from 13:31 to reduce volatility. However, this trading mechanism (suspended-closing) does not seem to have achieved the intended goals of the authorities, as it has not been able to significantly reduce closing-price volatility and price manipulation.     

中美小麦期货价格与现货价格传递关系的比较研究

为研究我国小麦期货市场价格发现功能的发挥程度及此功能对现货市场价格的影响,本文运用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等对中美小麦期货与现货价格传递关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：中美两国国内小麦期货与现货价格之间均存在明显的双向引导关系和长期均衡关系;我国小麦期货价格和现货价格对一个标准差信息冲击的反应均稍强于美国;我国小麦期货市场价格发现功能的发挥程度要优于美国。     

The empirical study on price discovery of cornstarch futures market in China

This article aims at exploring the performance of the price discovery function of cornstarch futures market in China. In order to test the stationarity of the cash and futures prices of cornstarch, the augmented Dickey–Fuller test is applied. Both prices are integrated of order one. Then, the Johansen cointegration test is conducted to test the cointegrating relationship between those two prices. Finally, the Granger causality test is performed to observe the direction of causality. The evidence shows that there is a long-run relationship between cash and futures prices and the futures price Granger causes cash price. As a whole, price discovery of cornstarch market in China is present although it is a newly emerged market.     

中美白糖期货市场价格发现功能的比较研究——基于2006—2008年的时间序列数据

本文运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、误差修正模型、信息共享模型、方差分解模型和脉冲响应函数,对2006—2008年中美两国白糖期现货市场价格之间的长短期变动关系进行了计量分析与横向对比。研究发现,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能已初步显现,但我国白糖期货市场中期货价格对现货价格的引导作用与美国的成熟市场还存在较大差距,我国白糖期货市场价格发现功能的发挥水平还有待提高。     

Takeover bids: evidence from the Portuguese market

Throughout the nineties, a number of tender offers occurred in the Portuguese market. This article employs event study methodology to investigate their effects on the involved firms shareholders. On average, these operations increased the market value of the involved firms by 2% to 3%. However, target shareholders appropriated most of this gain, earning 18% over their firms previous value, whereas bidder shareholders seem to have gained nothing. These averages bent in bidders shareholders favour, however, when bidders held significant positions in the targets capital before the bid.Received: December 2002, Accepted: September 2003, JEL Classification: G14, G34This paper corresponds to a revised version of chapter 6 of my PhD dissertation. I have greatly benefited from comments by my supervisors José Manuel Amado da Silva and Victor Mendes dos Santos, Pedro Pita Barros, participants in the 9^o Encontro Nacional de Economia Industrial and in an internal seminar at the Faculdade de Economia e Gestão, and two anonymous referees. The responsibility for any remaining errors is, of course, exclusively mine. CMVM and BDP have kindly provided the data used. Grant PRAXIS/PCSH/C/CEG/30/96 partially supported this research.     

Intraweek and intraday trade anomalies: evidence from FOREX market

In this article, we search for the evidence of intraweek and intraday anomalies on the spot foreign exchange (FOREX) market. Having in mind the international scope of this market, empirical evidence against market efficiency (i.e. market anomalies) will have important consequences for the substantial number of FOREX investors all around the globe. We explore intraweek, intraday and interaction between days and hour trade anomalies on the FOREX market over the period of 10 years using hourly time-series data of Euro and US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate on Swiss FOREX market from 1 January 2004 to 11 January 2014. We compare by analysis of variance test all pairs of mean returns on a daily, hourly and daily/hourly basis. t-Test is used to test whether intraday returns are significantly different from zero. We employ Tukey’s honestly significant difference test to explore which intraday pairs of hourly mean returns are significantly greater than zero. We find that intraday and interaction between day and hour anomalies are present in trading EUR/USD on the spot FOREX market over the period of 10 years. The best arbitrage opportunity is evidenced on Fridays, when selling USD and buying EUR at 00:00 and selling EUR and buying USD at 03:00 the same day.     

我国资产价格暴涨的政治经济学分析

近年来,我国以房地产和股票为代表的资产价格急剧上涨,结构因素、总量因素和重新定价因素等相继成为解释的原因。笔者以全球流动性过剩的国际传导为视角,对我国资产价格暴涨进行了政治经济学分析,认为资金太多才是本轮资产价格暴涨的主要原因。因此,当务之急是在公开、公平和公正原则下,对资产价格进行正常蒸发,同时谨防短期国际资本以概念炒作的方式对我国进行远程非接触式攻击。     

Contract settlement specification and price discovery: Empirical evidence in Australia individual share futures market

This study applies Geweke [J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 76 (1982) 304] measures of information flow and dependence between Australian individual share futures (ISF) contract and its underlying stock market to investigate whether the price discovery function of futures price has been enhanced after the switch of futures contracts from cash settlement to physical delivery. It is found that the spot market leads the futures market as the futures trading volume is rather small. Further tests suggest that the switch from cash settlement to physical delivery in the ISF contracts has reinforced the information flow from the spot market to the futures market.     

Export revenue and quality: Firm‐level evidence from developing countries

I combine firm‐level export data from eight low‐income and middle‐income countries to test the relation between export price and export revenue. Across‐firm estimations show a strong positive association between export price and export revenue. Within‐firm estimations show that firms generate larger export revenue from their high‐price products. The positive correlation between export price and export revenue is strong for manufactures, weak for primary commodities, and nonexistent for extractables. Results are robust to using an alternative quality measure and controlling for exporters’ market power.