When does a carbon tax on fossil fuels stimulate biofuels?

A carbon tax is an efficient economic instrument to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel burning. If designed properly, it could also help significantly to promote renewable energy. Using a multi-sector, multi-country computable general equilibrium model this study investigates under what circumstances a carbon tax would help stimulate penetration of biofuels into the energy supply mix for road transportation in various countries and regions around the world. This study shows that a carbon tax cum biofuel subsidy policy, where a carbon tax is introduced to fossil fuels and part of the tax revenue is used to finance the biofuel subsidy, would significantly help stimulate market penetration of biofuels. On the other hand, a carbon tax alone policy, where the entire tax revenue is recycled to households through a lump-sum transfer, does not help stimulate biofuels significantly even at higher tax rates. Although the carbon tax cum subsidy policy would cause higher loss in economic output at the global level as compared to the carbon tax alone policy, the incremental loss is relatively small. The key policy insight drawn from the study is that if a carbon tax were to be implemented in an economy for the purpose of climate change mitigation, recycling part of its revenue to finance biofuel subsidies would significantly help stimulate biofuels.     

Do tax cuts generate twin deficits? A multi‐country analysis

Abstract We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post‐1970 period. Our structural approach is based on a small open economy model where a tax cut affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping‐generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate twin deficits, and that both channels play important roles in explaining the positive comovement between the budget and external deficits.     

What determines productivity performance of telecommunications services industry? A cross-country analysis

This article investigates the key factors that determine the productivity performance of telecommunications services industry. A simple theoretical model is used to illustrate that the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth is attributable to the effects of scale economies, market competition and technical change. We then examine empirically the effect of various factors on the TFP growth in the industry using panel data in 12 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1983 through 2003. The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction. A new finding in this article is that higher machinery and equipment (M&E) capital intensity and human capital contribute to higher TFP growth in the telecommunications services industry. The decomposition analysis also suggests that technical change induced by changes in M&E capital intensity and human capital are important sources of productivity performance in the industry across the OECD countries, contributing to about 20–50% and 2–7% of TFP growth, respectively. These findings highlight the importance of improving the conditions for M&E capital investment and the quality of human capital, which in turn could facilitate the adoption of new technologies and enhance the productivity in the industry.     

How credit-constrained are firms in Turkey? A survey-based analysis

We study the factors related to the financing of firms in Turkey, using the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS). Based on the survey responses of the firms, we calculate the ratio of credit-constrained firms in Turkey and run a logistic regression to investigate the factors explaining the firms’ access to credit. Estimation results show that the likelihood of having access to credit increases with the firm size. Firms are more likely to access credit if they are being independently audited or they are exporters, and they are less likely to access credit if they have overdue payments.     

How many viewers does a cable network need? A survival analysis of cable networks

This article employs survival/duration analysis to determine how subscriber levels affect cable networks’ survival probabilities. Using piecewise-constant hazards estimation, we find that an additional one million subscribers increases a cable network's probability of survival in a given year by 17%.     

How do the determinants of firm survival change in the course of the industry life cycle? A fuzzy-set analysis

Industry life-cycle research on firm survival often tests the effects of innovativeness, entry timing, and experience from related industries. However, findings on how these effects change over different stages of the life cycle are scarce. To fill this gap, we perform a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis on a data-set of 58 video game device producers in six product generations. We find that innovation provides a consistent survival advantage only in the mature stage of the life cycle. We also find that experience accumulated within the industry loses its value in the mature stage, and the advantage shifts to de alio entrants only after shake-out. These findings are discussed relating to technological uncertainty, the role of internal and external knowledge, and the construction of sufficient technological performance.     

Is there a case for carbon-based border tax adjustment? An applied general equilibrium analysis

Concern that unilateral Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions could foster carbon leakage and undermine the international competitiveness of domestic industry has led to growing calls for carbon-based Border-Tax Adjustments (BTAs). This article uses a global general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of BTAs and comes to three main conclusions. First, BTAs can reduce carbon leakage if the coalition of countries taking action to reduce GHG emissions is small, because in this case leakage (while typically small) mainly occurs through international trade competitiveness losses rather than through declines in world fossil fuel prices. Second, even though the economic effects of BTAs vary somewhat depending on how they are implemented, their welfare impact is typically small, and slightly negative at the world level. Third, and perhaps more strikingly, BTAs do not necessarily curb the output losses incurred by the domestic Energy Intensive-Industries (EIIs) they are intended to protect in the first place. This is in part because EIIs in industrialized countries make important use of carbon-intensive intermediate inputs produced by EIIs in other geographical areas. Another, deeper explanation is that EIIs are ultimately more adversely affected by the existence of a carbon price itself than by any international competitiveness losses. These findings are shown to be robust to key model parameters, country coverage, targets and design features of BTAs.     

Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach

The Australian electricity industry experienced significant structural change during the 1990s mainly as a result of microeconomic reform. We analyse the effects of the structural change on the distribution of household income using a macro–micro approach. Our work shows that, nationwide, all income deciles experience higher real incomes in the order of 2%. Our results show that a previously state-owned monopoly industry can experience significant structural change while generating significant improvements in household real income without leading to significantly adverse impacts on national or regional income inequality. It suggests that policy makers in advanced economies should seriously consider such reforms given that they may generate large economic benefits with rather small economic costs.     

How does governance affect tax avoidance? Evidence from shareholder proposals

I examine the effect of corporate governance on tax avoidance. Specifically, I use a regression discontinuity design to analyse the effect of governance-related shareholder proposals that pass or fail by a small percentage of votes. The passage of such proposals around the 50% threshold can be viewed as random assignment of improved governance and thus cleanly identifies a causal estimate. I find that the adoption of governance proposals decreases cash effective tax rates (ETR), which suggests that improved governance increases tax avoidance. The result contributes to our understanding of the determinants of firms’ ETR.     

How does petty corruption affect tax morale in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Revenues from taxation gain in importance to finance economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa. One obstacle to enhancing the willingness to remit taxes can be the extortion of bribes by public officials. Using micro-level data from the Afrobarometer, we show that petty corruption erodes tax morale. The effect on tax morale is more severe in countries and regions where fewer people are affected by petty corruption and becomes insignificant if extortion of bribes is particularly prevalent. Differing levels of civic participation and potential access to tax funded services are also found to induce heterogeneous reactions to corruption experience. Applying a mediation analysis, we demonstrate that petty corruption not only has a direct effect on tax morale but also diminishes confidence in tax authorities and therefore affects tax morale indirectly. The harmful effects of corruption experience, however, operate mainly through a generally lowered inclination to uphold high levels of tax morale.     

Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis

This study develops a new financial market indicator, which may be a useful addition to analysing real activity in the US. By taking the ratio of the price return of equity industry groups of the S&P 500 over a benchmark industry group, in this case taken to be the Utilities industry group, an indicator is created which represents the price return performance specific to each individual industry. We then perform recursive pseudo out-of-sample bivariate forecasts of future changes in the Industrial Production Index (IPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3-month, 6-month and 12-month horizons using each of the indicators and compare results against an AR forecast. The results of the bivariate forecasts using a number of the indicators produce better forecasts of changes in the IPI and are also significant for causality, both for the full sample period and when tested recursively. Bivariate forecasts of changes to the CPI, however, do not improve upon the AR forecasts.     

Does labour supply respond to a flat tax?

We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001 to identify the effect of taxes on the labour supply of men and women. We apply a weighted difference‐in‐difference regression approach and instrumental variables to estimate labour supply functions using a panel dataset. The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statistically significant increase in hours of work for men but had no effect on work hours for women. However, we find a positive response to tax changes in both tails of the female work hour distribution. We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both men and women. Despite significant variation in individual responses, the aggregate labour supply elasticities are trivial. This suggests that reform‐induced changes in labour supply are an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform.     

State investment tax incentives: A zero-sum game?

Over the past four decades, state investment tax incentives have proliferated. This emergence of state investment tax credits (ITC) and other investment tax incentives raises two important questions: 1) Are these tax incentives effective in achieving their stated objective, to increase investment within the state?; 2) To the extent these incentives raise investment within the state, how much of this increase is due to investment drawn away from other states?To begin to answer these questions, we construct a detailed panel dataset for 48 states for 20+ years. The dataset contains series on output and capital, their relative prices, and establishment counts. The effects of tax variables on capital formation and establishments are measured by the Jorgensonian user cost of capital that depends in a nonlinear manner on federal and state tax variables. Cross-jurisdictional differences in state investment tax credits and state corporate tax rates entering the user cost, combined with a panel that is long in the time dimension, are key to identifying the effectiveness of state investment incentives.Two models are estimated. The Capital Demand Model is motivated by the first-order condition for a profit-maximizing firm and relates at the state level the capital/output ratio to the relative user cost of capital. The Twin-Counties Model exploits both the spatial breaks (“discontinuities”) in tax policy at state borders and our panel dataset to relate at the county level the relative user cost to the location of manufacturing establishments. Using the Capital Demand Model, we find that own-state capital formation is substantially increased by tax-induced reductions in the own-state price of capital and, more interestingly, substantially decreased by tax-induced reductions in the price of capital in competitive-states. Similarly, using our Twin-Counties Model, we find that county manufacturing establishment counts around state borders are higher on the side of the border with the lower price of capital, but the difference is economically small, suggesting that establishments are much less mobile than overall capital. Extensions of the Capital Demand Model also reveal that state capital tax policy appears to be a zero-sum game among the states in that an equiproportionate increase in own-state and competitive-states user costs tends to have no effect on own-state capital formation.     

How to explain carbon price using market micro-behaviour?

In this article, we analyse the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies and financial intermediaries in the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) and their influence on carbon prices. Based on the full-sample community independent transaction log (CITL), the micro-behaviours can be observed in a closed system. The micro-behaviours of the emitting companies are divided into ‘compliance trading’ and ‘non-compliance trading’ based on the emitting companies’ trading motivations. The micro-behaviours of the financial intermediaries are measured by their influence on the total supply and demand in the market. Then, an AR-GARCH model is established to examine the dynamic relationships between carbon prices and the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies and financial intermediaries. The estimation results suggest that the prices–behaviours relationship is significant. Other important findings are as follows: (1) the mean value of carbon prices positively depends on the compliance trading of the emitting companies and the micro-behaviours of the financial intermediaries; (2) non-compliance buying increases the volatility of carbon prices, while the non-compliance selling stabilizes it and (3) the micro-behaviours of the emitting companies in the lower 50% in terms of emission levels have no significant influence on the mean carbon price, but their non-compliance buying stabilizes the carbon price.     

How did households interpret chernobyl?: A bayesian analysis of risk perceptions

This paper reports the first attempt to apply a Bayesian learning model to explain how households' perceptions of the risks of nuclear power changed after the Chernobyl accident. The analysis includes information on a sample of suburban Boston households' attitudes toward nuclear power plants before and after the accident. It also uses information on their current and retrospective risk perceptions. The results, based on the stated risk perceptions, appear to suggest that households have difficulty distinguishing the probability of these types of infrequent, and potentially large, events from the severity of the outcomes involved.     

How does technology transfer affect backward linkages? A motivating example theoretical analysis

This paper develops a model in which the presence of a multinational leads to a technology transfer to its local suppliers and also modifies the degree of backward linkages in the local economy. First, we identify the domestic market characteristics under which the multinationals increase the level of backward linkages when they enter these markets. Moreover, we investigate the conditions under which the multinational could even benefit itself from transferring technology to its local suppliers. Finally, when the multinational transfers technology, we show when the level of backward linkages in the local economy increases.     

How effective are level-based R&D tax credits? Evidence from the Netherlands

This article examines the impact of the R&D fiscal incentive programme on R&D by Dutch firms. Taking a factor demand approach, we measure the elasticity of firm R&D capital accumulation to its user cost. Econometric models are estimated using a rich unbalanced panel of firm data covering the period 1996 to 2004 with firm specific R&D user costs varying with tax incentives. Using the estimated user cost elasticity, we perform a cost–benefit analysis of the R&D incentive programme. We find some evidence of additionality suggesting that the level based programme of R&D incentives in the Netherlands is effective in stimulating firms’ investment in R&D. However, the hypothesis of crowding out can be rejected only for small firms. The analysis also indicates that the level based nature of the fiscal incentive scheme leads to a substantial social deadweight loss.     

A curse or a blessing? Natural resources in a multiple growth regimes analysis

The literature on the impact of an abundance of natural resources on economic performance remains inconclusive. In this article we consider the possibility that countries may follow different growth regimes, and test the hypothesis that whether natural resources are a curse or a blessing depends on the growth regime to which an economy belongs. We follow recent work that has used a mixture-of-regressions method to identify different growth regimes, and find two regimes such that in one regime resources have a positive impact on growth, while in the other they have a negative impact or at best have no impact on growth. Our analysis of the determinants of whether a country belongs or not to the blessed resources regime indicates that the level of democracy plays an important role while education and economic institutions have no effect.