Estimating consumer demand in Korea

In this paper, time series annual data on five consumer goods for Korea are analyzed using the neoclassical model of consumer behavior. The approach taken is the indirect utility function and employs a translog form. Various restrictive specifications of consumer preferences with respect to homotheticity and separability are examined and rejected by the likelihood ratio test. Income and price elasticities are estimated, which appear to be generally high relative to those of developed countries. Growth in real income is primarily responsible for changes in commodity demand. Marginal utilities of income and associated income elasticities are calculated, which are consistent with normal expectations.     

U.S. consumer demand for prize-linked savings: New evidence on a new product

We report on the potential American demand for prize-linked savings, a savings account that also awards prizes. Our survey data suggests significant interest among individuals with little actual savings, without regular saving habits, who play lotteries extensively, and are optimistic.     

A reconsideration of the impact of recalls on the market valuation of a product

This paper looks at the problem of determining the effect on the market valuation of a product of recalls due to safety defects when the analytical framework is misspecified. Using the car market, the results show that it is difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish the effect on the price of recalls from the impact of quality differentials among makes and models.     

Quotas and the structure of consumer demand

In the direct utility function, quantities axe exogenous, while prices and total expenditure are endogenous. Consequently, this utility function is appropriate for analyzing the impact on prices and total expenditure from an exogenous change in the quantity of a commodity. Such an exogenous change in quantity could occur when quotas change. The direct translog utility function is estimated for a four commodity breakdown of U.S. expenditure. Estimates of quantity elasticities of price and expenditure indicate that domestically produced non-durables are necessities. As a result, the imposition of quotas on these goods will be particularly deleterious to lower income consumers.     

The negativity condition in consumer demand

The study stresses the importance of one relatively neglected restriction on demand equations: the negativity condition (i.e., the necessity of a negative semidefinite substitution matrix). That condition is implemented by using the Cholesky decomposition. It implies nonlinear combinations of the parameters which are estimated by a maximum likelihood procedure. The method, applied to Dutch and German data, leads to an acceptance of the theoretical restrictions stemming from consumer theory.     

Exact aggregation of consumer demand systems

This paper is divided into two parts which deal with closely connected issues. The first section of the paper explores the structure of consumer demand systems necessary and sufficient for exact aggregation. The second section addresses a related empirical question: what, if anything, do the restrictions imposed on exactly aggregable demand systems buy the econometrician engaged in estimating integrable consumer demands? In particular, if the objective of an empirical exercise is to estimate the demand systems of individual utility maximizing consumers and only aggregate expenditure information and information on the income and demographic composition of the population are available, then under what conditions can the parameters of the estimated aggregate expenditure system be used to uniquely identify the parameters of the underlying individual demand systems?     

The integrability of consumer demand functions

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the class of systems of consumer demand functions that are representable as ratios of first-order polynomial functions and are integrable. Starting from a general system of consumer demand functions representable as ratios, we impose successively the restrictions corresponding to homogeneity, summability, symmetry, non-negativity, and monotonicity. We find that the only such systems which are capable of modeling arbitrary own- and cross-substitution effects are the systems generated by transcendental logarithmic utility functions.     

Income distribution and composition of consumer demand in the Spanish economy

In this paper we formulate a complete system of demand functions, to characterize the change in private consumption demand induced by the redistribution of consumers' income. This system attempts to cover the lack of a demand model suitable for the study of the income redistribution effect on the structure of the Spanish productive system. The specification of the model is such that the Price Independent Generalised Linearity (PIGL) conditions hold, thereby ensuring a consistent aggregation across consumers. It is also assumed that the Relative Income Hypothesis holds. The estimation is made with data from a survey of household budgets.     

A note on decentralizability in consumer demand models with quantity rationing

It is shown that in a context of quantity rationing, it is not always possible to decentralize the consumer's intertemporal behavior in a sequence of atemporal, static optimization programs. Whether or not decentralizability holds crucially depends on the perceived rationing scheme.     

An intertemporal system of dynamic consumer demand functions

This paper constructs and estimates a system of dynamic consumer demand equations under the assumption of rational expectations about anticipated human wealth. The traditional one-period budget constraint is replaced by the lifetime anticipated wealth constraint. Lagged dependent variables are rationalized by an adjustment cost argument. In the model presented, both the dynamic adjustment coefficients as well as the parameters characterizing the underlying long-run preferences are identified and can be estimated. We find that a weak version of the REH cannot be rejected on the data. In common with most empirical studies on demand behaviour we have to reject the symmetry restrictions.     

Coevolution of product quality and consumer preferences

This paper seeks to analyze the self-reinforcing coevolutionary process of innovation on the basis of the framework of evolutionary ecology and population genetics. Particularly central to this analysis is “Fisher’s runaway process,” which explains the coevolution of product quality and consumer preference in the supply–demand context. This paper puts forward the following main points. First, we can conclude from a matching model of supply and demand that when a consumer who prefers high-quality products discovers such a product in the market, he/she will certainly purchase that product. Second, taking into account both the high survival rate of a firm that supplies a high-quality product and the cost incurred by the firm in improving product quality, we arrive at an evolutionarily stable Fisher’s process. The third point, however, considers the disutility of a consumer with an inordinately high quality preference; in this case, Fisher’s process disappears. Fourth, it is possible to recover Fisher’s process if we consider the existence of power users or the effect of the negative bias of innovation.     

Exploring the effects of aggregation error in the estimation of consumer demand elasticities

Errors introduced by using aggregate data in estimating a consumer demand model have long been a concern. We study the effects of such errors on elasticity estimates derived from AIDS and QUAIDS models. Based on a survey of published articles, a generic parameterization of the income distribution, and the range of Gini coefficients reported for 28 OECD countries, we generate and analyze a large number of “observations” on the differences between elasticities calculated at the aggregate level and those calculated at the micro level. We suggest a procedure for evaluating the likely range of aggregation error when a model is estimated with aggregate data.     

Effects of health information on Nordic meat and fish demand

Increasing public concerns about health risks associated with dietary intakes of cholesterol are expected to have significant impacts on the demand for foods with high fat content. This paper investigates how information about cholesterol, as measured by two newly constructed indices based on published medical research, has affected the demand for meats (beef, chicken and pork) and fish in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden). To compare the effects of information across countries and over time, the demand equations for all the countries are estimated within one system, and a complete set of price and expenditure elasticities is estimated. Our findings suggest that health information has affected consumption in a healthy way in all countries studied except for Denmark. We find positive effects on the demand for chicken in Finland, Norway and Sweden and for fish in Finland and Sweden. A negative effect on the demand for beef in Sweden also is found. First version received: May 2001/Final version received: December 2001 RID="*" ID="*"  The authors would like to thank Wen S. Chern and Bj?rn Sl?en for their assistance in the construction of the health information indices. The suggestions of two anonymous referees have also been of great assistance. The EU (contract FAIRS-CT97-3373) and the Research Council of Norway (grant no. 134018/110) provided financial support for this research.”     

Indivisibility,irreversibility, and the demand for consumer durables

A deeper understanding of the volatility of expenditures on consumer durables is sought in the properties of those goods and the transactions by which they are acquired: durability, indivisibility, and irreversibility. When these properties constrain optimization we find: 1) variation in the lengths of endogenously determined replacement cycles rather than stock-level adjustments may account for much of the volatility, 2) the qualitative nature of an individual consumer's response to a shock depends on the age of his existing unit relative to its optimal replacement age when the shock occurs, 3) the aggregate distribution of unit ages relative to their optimal replacement ages conditions the aggregate response to shocks, and 4) shocks actually change that distribution. A simple aggregation methodology is demonstrated which depicts exaggerated aggregate reactions to shocks.     

The effects of changes in household demographics and employment on consumer demand patterns

This study examines to what extent changes in consumer demand patterns over the last two decades in the Netherlands can be attributed to changes in household demographics, employment and total expenditures. The dominating changes in consumer demand are decreasing budget shares of food & beverages and clothing & footwear and increasing budget shares of housing and services. The changes in households’ composition – away from the traditional one-earner family with children – together with the increase in household total expenditures account for about one-third of the decrease in the budget share of food & beverages, half of the increase in the budget shares of services and only a minor part of the increase in housing. Once controlled for budget effects, the quadrupling of the proportion of employed women with young children accounts for about one-third of the increase in the budget shares of personal & health care – including childcare – and food away, holidays & entertainment.     

The effects of labour strikes on consumer demand in professional sports: revisited

Previous research has concluded that the 1981 and 1994–1995 Major League Baseball (MLB) strikes have caused short-term losses in attendance but have not resulted in any long-term effects on attendance. While total attendance at MLB games following the 1994–1995 strike has recovered to its pre-strike levels, this has been done only through the construction of new stadiums at an unprecedented pace which cannot continue into the future. After accounting for stadium effects, average MLB baseball attendance has dropped significantly since the 1994–1995 strike.     

Technical and scale efficiencies of meat goat farms in the USA

This study determines i) scale and technical efficiencies, ii) marginal productive contributions for inputs and outputs and iii) efficiency drivers of meat goat farms in the USA. We estimate an input distance function (IDF) using a stochastic production frontier (SPF) technique. The average technical efficiency (TE) for the USA meat goat whole farm was 0.74. The operator education level, percentage of annual net farm income from the goat operation, regional differences and holding of an off farm job are the efficiency drivers of USA meat goat farms. We find increasing returns to scale (RTS) for USA meat goat farms. Our results suggest that USA meat goat farms can be scale efficient if their optimal size of operation is greater than approximately 64 goats or greater than 40 breeding does. Empirical Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques show the consistency of finite-sample properties for the input distance function.     

On estimating the cost of characteristics indices from consumer demand analysis

Abstract.  We examine the information content of relative equivalence scales using a multiperiod framework and argue that in the absence of Independence of Base (IB) these scales can be uniquely identified from demand analysis only when the transformations of preferences through time are the same for all household types, a property termed as Intertemporally Invariant Base (IIB) utility. Restrictions imposed by IIB on conditional demands are tested empirically and found rejected within the context of a rank‐3 demand system applied to individual household data drawn from the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey 1970–86. Welfare implications of false IIB assumptions are also empirically investigated. JEL Classification: D1
A propos de l'estimation du coût des indices caractéristiques à partir de l'analyse de la demande des consommateur.  Ce mémoire examine le contenu informationnel des échelles d'équivalence relative en utilisant un cadre d'analyse sur plusieurs périodes, et suggère que, en l'absence d'une indépendance de la base (IB), ces échelles peuvent être identifiées d'une manière univoque seulement si les transformations de préférences dans le temps sont les mêmes pour tous les types de ménages. On nomme cette propriété utilité de base invariante dans le temps (IIB). Les restrictions vérifiables imposées par IIB sur les demandes conditionnelles sont vérifiées empiriquement et sont rejetées dans le contexte d'un système de demande de rang 3 appliqué aux données des ménages individuels dans une étude des dépenses des ménages de la Grande Bretagne 1970–86. Les implications de faux postulats IIB sont analysées empiriquement.     

Consumer demand for meat and the evaluation of agricultural policy

This study utilizes an econometric model of equilibrium in the U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets to investigate a number of questions of economic methodology and policy. Both nonlinear consumer demand equations that obey the constraints of neoclassical demand theory and a model of supply are used. This approach allows for the measurement of the effects on consumer welfare of actual government policies. In particular, the model is employed to analyze the welfare effects of an actual policy situation — the sale of U.S. grain to the Soviet Union in the third quarter of 1972.