TV advertising spillovers and demand for private labels: the case of carbonated soft drinks

The expansion of private labels, or store brands, has transformed consumer choice sets and competition in retail markets, prompting manufacturers to fight back with renewed pricing and product and promotion strategies to forestall further private label expansion. This article examines the spillover effects of television advertising on brand-level consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), including private labels, using a random coefficients logit model with household purchasing and advertising viewing Nielsen data. As in previous work, we find that although brand spillover effects significantly increase demand for CSD brands in the same company and undermine demand facing other manufacturers’ CSD brands, surprisingly, there are positive spillover effects on the demand for private label brands. This indicates that brand advertising is persuasive with respect to manufacturers’ brands but complementary with respect to private labels. Further results show that eliminating television advertising for CSDs would lower aggregate CSD sales as consumers migrate to other beverages, although private labels stand to gain, particularly Wal-Mart brands.     

Residual demand analysis of the carbonated soft drink industry

In this paper, residual demand analysis is applied to test whether carbonated soft drinks is a relevant product market. The residual demand elasticity for carbonated soft drinks is estimated using weekly A.C. Nielsen Scanner price and quantity data for carbonated soft drink products purchased in supermarkets in the United States. The estimated residual demand elasticity and average contribution margin for carbonated soft drinks suggest that a market for carbonated soft drinks is too narrow for purposes of merger analysis according to the Merger Guidelines established by the United States Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission.Two of the authors, Kaplan and Tollison, have served as consultants to and received research support from PepsiCo, Inc. The present project, though an aoutgrowth of this earlier work, received no support from PepsiCo, Inc. or any other source. The views expressed in the article are soley those of the authors, and the authors are responsible for any errors or omissions.     

Exploring additional determinants of fixed broadband adoption: policy implications for narrowing the broadband demand gap

Using data from the survey ‘Aspects of daily life’ conducted on Italian individuals in 2014 by the Italian Institute of Statistics, we propose new evidence on the factors that encourage the adoption of fixed broadband, a topic relevant for the reduction of the so-called broadband demand gap. We estimate a probit model through the two-step Heckman procedure for the selection bias, and find that, besides the already studied socio-demographic determinants, Internet-capable devices other than personal computers, as well as recreational (essentially video contents) and cloud-related uses of the Internet, have a relevant positive role. Policies aimed at fostering the diffusion of smart homes and more generally of the Internet of things at the residential level might be very effective in favouring fixed broadband adoption, provided that the network be neutral, not discriminating between data based on their contents and/or the destination device, and that possible foreclosing behaviours in the access to (premium) contents be properly and promptly addressed.     

Voucher privatization: implications for macroeconomic policy1

This paper analyses the impact of voucher privatization schemes on the behaviour of households and the consequences for macroeconomic policy. The stylized facts of the voucher privatization scheme are described for the Czech case. The consumption as well as portfolio decision of households during the voucher scheme are modelled within the framework of a consumption function and a system of demand functions for financial assets. The envelope theorem is used to modify the standard Almost Ideal Demand (AID) system. The empirical results are presented. The paper concludes that the interdependence between privatization and macroeconomic stability should be better understood by policy-makers in transitional countries that are going to adopt a similar approach to privatization to that applied in the Czech Republic.     

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis

This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability.     

Economic policy uncertainty and demand for money in Australia

The demand for money has received a great deal of attention in the empirical literature. This literature, however, has emphasized factors such as interest rate, income, inflation rate and exchange rate as the primary determinants of money demand. Although an emerging strand of literature examines uncertainty as a potential determinant of money demand, findings have been mixed. Using a news-based Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index and Australian quarterly data from 1998 to 2017, we study the impact of policy uncertainty on demand for money. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) results show that the economic policy uncertainty measure has a negative short-run effect on the demand for money, suggesting the wider public hedge against future expected inflation, and positive long-run effect, whereby the broader public hold more cash to stay liquid during times of economic uncertainty. Also, introducing nonlinearity into the money demand equation, we find an asymmetric effect, more in favour of currency appreciations, supporting the expectations effect of further appreciations in exchange rate movements.     

A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy

In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.First revision received: May 2002/Final revision received: May 2003I thank Helmut Lütkepohl, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 373) is gratefully acknowledged.     

农户对新农合的需求研究:一个分析框架

对农民新农合的需求作了框架性研究。运用线形扩展支出模型定量分析了农民的支付能力。农村贫困人群确实存在支付能力问题。政府应对贫困人群的合作医疗筹资给予更大的支持力度。对于绝大数农民, 关键不在于支付能力, 而在于支付意愿。对农民的支付意愿构建了国家、社区、家庭和个人的四维解释框架。在国家层面, 影响因素主要是对政府的信任程度、政府的"机构能力"以及补贴的力度大小;在社区层面, 社会资本在社区健康融资中发挥着重要作用;家庭对合作医疗的支付意愿主要取决于其对参与的成本和收益的比较, 同时, 家庭成员内部风险分担机制和家庭之间风险分担机制也会对家庭的支付意愿产生影响。支付意愿还和农民的个人特征相关。     

Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis

Previous studies included money supply volatility as well as output volatility as measures of uncertainty in estimating the demand for money. However, a more comprehensive measure of uncertainty is now constructed for many countries and is known as policy uncertainty. When we included this new measure in the formulation of the demand for money in Korea and relied upon a nonlinear specification of the money demand which allows us to assess the asymmetric effects of changes in the policy uncertainty measure, we found asymmetric long-run effects of policy uncertainty on the demand for cash in Korea. Our conjecture is that increased uncertainty induces Koreans to hold less cash in favor of safer assets and decreased uncertainty has opposite effects, though at different rate.     

The newer antipsychotics: evidence for cost-effectiveness and policy implications

SUMMARY

The current reluctance in some health authorities to provide full funding for the use of the new generation of antipsychotics is not in the best interests of patients or the National Health Service. Schizophrenia is a complex and costly disease, which relies too much on hospital care because of funding shortages elsewhere.

New research attitudes are required to assist health policy decisions. Economic evaluations using evidence solely from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are insufficient and give a partial and potentially misleading picture. The complexity of the illness and its outcomes in schizophrenia as well as the social influences on hospital admission and discharge exaggerate methodological difficulties arising from the nature of RCTs. The long-term, relapsing nature of the disease in many patients means that long-term evidence must be considered from non-randomised observational studies.

This paper discusses recent reviews and major publications in order to examine the economic arguments for newer atypicals as a class. The economic data published to date consistently suggest that these newer agents should not increase the direct costs of treating schizophrenia and may in fact reduce them. As there are undoubted patient benefits, not least a reduction in side effects, especially extrapyramidal symptoms (EPS) with the potential to improve compliance and reduce relapse, the range of atypicals might be made available and the clinician allowed to make a choice based on clinical not economic grounds.

The funding of these newer agents, although they are ultimately of benefit to patients and to the NHS, stretches already sparse resources. The likely freeing up of beds previously blocked by patients on older 'conventional' treatments will allow them to be used by those patients who currently escape the net. This will further increase funding requirements as more patients present for treatment. There are ethical, clinical and political grounds for increasing funding for the treatment of schizophrenia to take advantage of the biggest revolution in antipsychotic therapy since the launch of the first neuroleptics.     

Demand for Environmental Quality: An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Behavior in Sweden

In this paper we estimate the income elasticity of demand for recreational services and other traditional groups of goods in Sweden and test for potential changes in such estimates over the twentieth century. Due to the difficulty of directly observing the demand for recreational services, we employ an indirect methodology by using the demand for some outdoor goods as a proxy for the demand for recreational services. In line with most prior research, our results confirm the expectation that recreational services, as a public good, is a luxury good in Sweden. Our results also show that the income elasticities for traditional goods are stable over time, indicating that consumer preferences for expenditure on these specific commodities do not change over time.      

Hooliganism and Demand for Football in Italy: Attendance and Counterviolence Policy Evaluation

This paper empirically investigates the relationship between stadium attendance, hooliganism and counter‐violence policy measures in Italian Serie A. In particular, this paper analyses the impact of counter‐hooliganism policies adopted in 2007 on the quantity of game tickets sold. The counter‐hooliganism measures, grounded on an entry card, namely a ‘fidelity card’, were designed to keep out hooligans from stadiums so favouring the attendance of either occasional spectators or uncommitted fans. According to our econometric investigation the expected substitution between committed fans and uncommitted fans did not take shape. In sum, the ‘fidelity card’ did not turn to be successful if evaluated on the average attendance perspective.     

The potential for underinvestment in internet security: implications for regulatory policy

With the continuing growth of the use of the Internet for business purposes, the consequences of a possible cyber attack that could create a large scale outage of long time duration becomes a more and more serious economic issue. In this paper, we construct a game-theoretic model that addresses the economic motivations for investment in added Internet security and makes a case for a possible market failure in the form of underinvestment in the provision of Internet security. This result relies on the fact that the social value derived from consumption (which is at least equal to a fraction of the surplus derived from e-commerce) greatly exceeds the revenue at stake associated with the telecommunications companies’ and ISP’s security levels. If the ratio of social value to revenue at stake to Internet providers continues to grow, the likelihood of underinvestment in security becomes higher and some form of regulation may become necessary. We discuss the difficulties associated with designing and enforcing a regulatory scheme based upon mandatory security standards.      

Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection

This paper analyses the role of demographic factors in the Austrian housing market. Linking demographic issues, in conjunction with the Austrian private housing finance, to the housing demand is the focus of the empirical model developed in this paper. We find statistical support that the demographic factors help to explain for housing demand. However, we emphasize that demographic factor such as the adult population with net migration effect is only one of the key variables which contributes in understanding the Austrian housing demand. Some of our other empirical findings indicate that the Austrian housing demand is inelastic to various economic factors is a concern for some housing policies.     

住房反向抵押贷款的需求分析——基于北京市的相关调查数据

住房反向抵押贷款是一种新型的住房金融产品,也是实现以房养老的金融工具。本文基于北京市的调查数据,通过建立多元选择模型,分析了影响住房反向抵押贷款需求的因素及其原因。研究结果表明:影响住房反向抵押贷款需求的直接因素主要有房主的实际年龄、性别、学历、收入、支出水平;间接因素主要有社会传统习惯和观念、养老方式等;另外,征收遗产税对发展住房反向抵押贷款有正向促进作用,且税率越高,其影响就越大。     

Corporate tax policy and heterogeneous firm innovation: Evidence from a developing country

This paper adds to the literature by identifying the causality of corporate tax policy on firm innovation in a developing country. We exploit the China’s 2006 corporate income tax base reform to integrate the tax system between foreign-invested and state/collective-controlled firms as a natural experiment. The difference-in-differences strategy documents a positive effect of corporate tax deduction on firm patenting. The effect is particularly significant if a firm is of larger size or locates in eastern provinces. We also examine possible channels behind the findings, including changes in R&D and capital investment, intangible assets, financial constraints, and new product sales.     

我国上市公司独立审计需求问题及对策研究

为进一步引导上市公司增加高质量审计需求,阐述了我国上市公司独立审计需求研究现状,对股权分置改革前后我国上市公司独立审计需求进行了系统研究。     

农户对农业基础设施需求的影响因素分析——以山西省为例

本文在对山西省300位农户的农业基础设施需求进行调研的基础上,建立了多项Logistic回归模型,分析了影响农户对农业基础设施需求的主要因素。研究表明,文化程度、农户人均净收入、收入来源、人均耕地面积和农户对农业基础设施现状的满意度是影响其需求的主要因素。     

On the determinants of obesity: evidence from the UAE

This article investigates the possible determinants of being overweight and obese in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), controlling for age and education status. We use a novel dataset constructed from survey responses of university undergraduate students. Using OLS, logistic and ordered logistic regressions, we find that male, affluent and nonnational students face a higher risk of being obese (or overweight). The results also show that cultural and geographical factors interact with some behavioural aspects related to lifestyle in determining weight status. Students originating from other Middle East and North Africa countries exhibit higher body mass index (BMI) and odds of being obese with higher frequency of eating out and more computer use. Unexpectedly, fast food consumption and lack of exercise do not seem to contribute to higher risks of being overweight/obese.     

基于农户视角的农村公共品供需均衡研究

基于3省245个农户的调查表明,农民当前最急需的公共品是卫生医疗、农田基础设施;农民的公共品需求有如下特点：硬品优先于软品;物质需求优先于精神需求;现实优于长远;切身利益重于宏观环境。合意的公共品供给有新型农村合作医疗、粮食直补政策和义务教育,农民对公共品供给最不满意的是农村社会养老、农业科技信息服务和农村金融。农民对公共品供给的满意度主要取决于公共品的规模、质量、价格和农户的人口社会学背景。最后,对农村公共品供需均衡矩阵进行了分析,并建议根据公共品供需衔接状况、农民对公共品供给的满意程度,实行不同的公共品供给策略。