水电站建成后保护植物的恢复利用研究——以云南省李仙江土卡河为例

我国是世界上生物多样性最丰富的国家之一,也是水电资源丰富的国家。多年来,在许多水电站开发后的植被恢复过程中大规模地有意或无意引入外来物种,造成当地的生物多样性丧失,而且很难恢复。文章选择的云南省李仙江土卡河流域为一条国际河流,该流域分布的热带雨林是我国境内生物多样性程度最高、热带生物资源和基因资源最丰富的区域之一。文章根据水电工程建设环境保护工作的实践,分析水电建设对生物多样性的影响,研究水电建设中陆生珍稀保护植物恢复利用情况和具体措施,为今后水电建设生物多样性保护提供借鉴。     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.     

THE VALUE OF IN‐STREAM WATER TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR FISHERIES MANAGEMENT

Water temperature is an important factor affecting aquatic life within the stream environment. Cold water species, such as salmonids, are particularly susceptible to elevated water temperatures. This paper examines the economic value of short‐term water temperature forecasts for salmonid management. Forecasts may have economic value if they allow the water resource manager to make better water allocation decisions. This study considers two applications: water releases for management of Chinook salmon in the Klamath River and leasing water from agriculture for management of steelhead trout in the John Day River. We incorporate biophysical models and water temperature distribution data into a Bayesian framework to simulate changes in fish populations and the corresponding benefit from recreational fishing and opportunity cost of water under different temperature forecast accuracies. Simulation results indicate that use of the forecasts results in increased fish production and that marginal costs decline and net benefits increase as forecast accuracy increases, suggesting that provision and use of such stream temperature forecasts would have value to society. (JEL Q22, Q25, Q28, Q50)     

WATER BANKING AND RESTORATION OF ENDANGERED SPECIES HABITAT: AN APPLICATION TO THE SNAKE RIVER

Most river basins have experienced development of water projects to promote flood control, recreation, and hydropower and agricultural production. Though the projects helped establish stable economies, there have been adverse impacts to the natural environment and wildlife that reside in these river basins. One of the key policy tools for habitat restoration is management of instream flows. Alternative water banking policies for restoring habitat are compared using a spatial optimization model to identify which policies work best to augment instream flows for habitat restoration. Results indicate that policy goals dictate what type of water bank is preferred.     

Continuity of the equilibrium price density and its uses in peak-load pricing

Summary. With as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric (rearrangement-invariant) production costs and additively separable consumer utility. Examples arise in continuous-time utility pricing, e.g., electricity pricing. In this context, a continuously varying price has two uses. First, it precludes demand jumps that would arise from discontinuous switches from one price rate to another. Second, in the problems of operating and valuing hydroelectric and pumped-storage plants (studied elsewhere), price continuity guarantees that their capacities (viz., the reservoir and the converter), the energy stocks, and in the case of hydro also the river flows, have well-defined marginal values.Received: 9 May 2001, Revised: 8 July 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C62, D51, D58, L94. Correspondence to: Anthony HorsleyPart of this work (CentER DP 9014) was completed at the Center for Economic Research, Tilburg University, whose financial support is gratefully acknowledged. The extension to storage was supported by ESRC grant R000232822. We also thank the referee and the editor for their comments.     

Finding the cointegration and causal linkages between the electricity production and economic growth in Pakistan

The present study reveals the impact of electricity production on economic growth in Pakistan. It covers the period of 1975–2010, and assumes a log-linear relationship between the variables. The bounds test for cointegration indicates a unique long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, it finds that sub-optimal electricity production is eroding the private business investment in the short run. Based on these facts, this study advocates the promotion of hydropower plants that are beneficial for two reasons. First, it would produce clean power in the country. Second, the cost of production would also drop resulting in lower tariff rates. Finally, it finds bidirectional causal relationship between the variables in the long run whereas no causal relationship is found in the short run.     

Using Revealed Preferences to Infer Environmental Benefits:Evidence from Recreational Fishing Licenses

We develop and apply a new method for estimating the economic benefits of an environmental amenity. The method is based upon the notion of estimating the derived demand for a privately traded option to utilize an open access good. In particular, the demand for state fishing licenses is used to infer the benefits of recreational fishing. Using panel data on state fishing license sales and prices for the continental United States over a 15-year period, combined with data on substitute prices and demographic variables, a license demand function is estimated with instrumental variable procedures to allow for the potential endogeneity of administered prices. The econometric results lead to estimates of the benefits of a fishing license, and subsequently to the expected benefits of a recreational fishing day. In contrast with previous studies, which have utilized travel cost or hypothetical market methods, our approach provides estimates that are directly comparable across geographic areas. Our findings show substantial variation in the value of a recreational fishing day across geographic areas in the United States. This suggests that current practice of using benefits estimates from one part of the country in national or regional analyses may lead to substantial bias in benefits estimates.Financial support of this work was provided by Resources for the Future, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the Dean’s Research Fund, John F. Kennedy School of Government. The analysis benefitted from discussions with Andrew Metrick, Richard Newell, and Kerry Smith, and comments from participants at seminars at the National Bureau of Economic Research and Harvard University, and very helpful comments from two anonymous referees. The data set, which builds upon previous work by Wolf (1988), was assembled with the help of a series of research assistants, including: Rod Bender, Nancy Bilica, Alisha Bloom, Diane Cherry, Peter Condon, Andrew Hoffman, and Michael Susanto. The authors alone are responsible for any errors.     

Using resident perceptions of values associated with the Australian Tropical Rivers to identify policy and management priorities

Many rivers in the world are facing changes due to increased development needs, and these changes impact on a range of values people associate with these rivers. We use a non-monetary tool in a mail-out survey of 291 households to assess the importance of social and cultural values of the Australian Tropical Rivers and identify associated management priorities. Nine river values were included in the assessment: bequest, existence, recreational fishing, other types of recreation, aesthetics, teaching, water for human life, water for other life and commercial use. Of these, the most important values identified by respondents were biodiversity, human life, and bequest, with widespread agreement across respondents about their importance. Management priorities were assessed using the Index of Dissatisfaction (IDS). Although commercial values ranked sixth out of nine in terms of importance they emerged as the highest priority using IDS. This is because they received the lowest levels of satisfaction, associated with concerns over issues such as pollution, overuse and lack of monitoring. Thus, the main policy issue in this region might not be one of protecting commercial values, but of addressing concerns relating to the commercial use of water, and its potential negative impact on ecological and social values.     

Ethiopia’s Challenge to Egyptian Hegemony in the Nile River Basin: The Case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Home to more than 160 million people, the Nile River Basin has become one of the hotspots of the global quest for food, water and energy security. Moving closer to its completion, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) highlights the interplay between the food, water, and energy sectors and their implications on geopolitical power relations in the region. Despite Ethiopia having the highest volumetric contribution to the Nile river flow, Egypt has maintained hydro-hegemony over the basin for several decades on the basis of historical claims and colonial agreements. Egypt has stated that its volumetric share of the Nile’s water is not sufficient to sustain its growing population, declaring water availability a matter of national security. However, for Ethiopia, the GERD represents a crucial moment in its development agenda, acting as both a counterhegemonic power play, as well as a means to improving the hydropower capacity of the country, and ensuring future food security. This paper explores the various hegemonic and counter-hegemonic strategies employed by Egypt and Ethiopia respectively, highlighting the various ways in which food, water, and energy concerns are intrinsic components of the asymmetric power configurations of the Nile River Basin. By navigating the debate surrounding the GERD, this paper highlights the necessity of incorporating the food, water, and energy nexus into studies of hydro-hegemony and counter-hegemony. This allows the future policy direction for nexus management and governance in the Nile River Basin to move beyond benefit sharing, instead steering towards power sharing.     

Living in a bubble: potential gains from flexible water management policies

We study Swedish implementation of the European Union’s Water Framework Directive, and compare the current implementation strategy with more flexible ‘bubble’ schemes, where measures can be traded among various locations within the same river system to reach the overall environmental target. Two different Swedish river systems, the Mörrum system with small-scale hydropower plants, and the Ångerman system with larger plants, are studied. We find that the environmental benefits that current policies are likely to accomplish could be achieved at well under half the cost in the Mörrum system, and at less than a tenth of the cost in the Ångerman system.     

Exploring the shelf-life of travel cost methods of valuing recreation for benefits transfer

This study tests the stability of willingness to pay (WTP) for recreational fishing over two decades based on three rounds of a representative angler survey conducted in New York State in 1988, 1996, and 2007. We employ the travel cost method (TCM) by using the repeated conditional logit and mixed logit models to estimate demand for daily fishing trips. Our estimates suggest that anglers’ WTP for fishing in 1988 and 1996 were similar, with values per trip at $35.2 and $36.4, respectively. However, there was a noticeable decrease in WTP, to $30.6, in 2007. This decrease is consistent with two salient features of the 2007 survey: (1) long-distance trips, such as those to the Great Lakes were less frequent, and (2) anglers were, on average, older than in previous surveys.     

Co-ordinated environmental regulation: controlling non-point nitrate pollution while maintaining river flows

Environmental policy often addresses multiple targets, yet much economic analysis of pollution control is based on a single-target objective. In this paper, we present an analysis of policies to control non-point source nitrate pollution in the presence of minimum river flow restrictions. A non-linear bio-physical economic optimisation model of an intensively cultivated Scottish agricultural catchment was constructed. The presence of minimum river flow controls in the catchment was found to reduce nitrogen pollution. However, by themselves, river flow controls were found not to be a cost effective means to reduce non-point pollution. We quantify the improved social welfare from coordinating the environmental regulation of river flows and pollution, and determine the conditions under which such coordination is beneficial. The paper also investigates whether the benefits of such coordination can be sustained under wetter (winter) weather conditions implied by current climate change predictions.     

An explorative empirical analysis of the influence of labour flows on wage formation

This study presents an explorative econometric analysis of the influence of labour market flows on wage formation. It applies the vector cointegration and common trends methodology of Johansen (Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregresssive Models, OUP, Oxford, 1995). According to this approach, a combination of the flow of layoffs (flow from employment to unemployment) and the flow of filled vacancies (successful matches) appears to be an adequate alternative to the unemployment rate as indicator of labour market tightness in the wage equation for The Netherlands.     

Evolution of FDI flows in the global network: 2003–2012

As one type of international capital flow, FDI maintains its important role in globalization. This article attempts to investigate the evolution of the FDI flows from a network perspective. Based on the bilateral FDI flows data between countries from 2003 to 2012, we construct the global FDI flows network for each year and thus quantify network measures (such as flow volumes and connections); further by analysing the tendency and changes of these network measures during the past 10 years, we delineate the features and dynamics of the FDI flows in the global network. We have the following findings: (a) the flows network changes during and after the crisis, i.e. flow volume fallen down and recovered, and flow connection restructured with more diversity; (b) the global FDI flows network is getting more loosely connected; (c) individual countries vary in different patterns.     

Decentralizing hydro power production

Abstract.  We analyse the production of electricity from n power stations in a dynamic model. Each power station's production of electricity is constrained by the quantity of water available to it (supply constraint) as well as limitations on reservoir capacity (storage constraint). We show that hydro power production can lead to two sources of welfare loss: suboptimal management of water resources and the exercise of market power. A monopolist minimizes the first source of inefficiency, whereas decentralized production in a competitive environment minimizes the second. The decision to introduce competition in hydropower production must account for these two opposite effects. JEL Classification: L11, Q48     

Worker Flows and Job Flows in Danish Manufacturing, 1980-91

We map turnover of workers and jobs in Danish manufacturing over the 1980 to 1991 period, using information about all individual manufacturing plants. We examine the relation between worker flows and job flows and we study separations from and hires to existing jobs ('replacement hiring') in detail. Our results reveal large heterogeneity among workers as well as plants, even adjusting for the level of job flows. The cyclical properties of worker reallocation point to worker flow dynamics being driven by workers quitting in upturns to find better jobs, rather than by plants upgrading the labour force in recessions.     

Economic valuation of environmental services sustained by water flows in the Yaqui River Delta

We attempted to estimate the economic value of environmental services provided by restored instream flows in the water-scarce Yaqui River Delta in Mexico. The Yaqui River begins near the U.S.-Mexico border and continues for 400 km before reaching the Oviachic dam, but has not reached the nearby Gulf of California for decades due to diversions for irrigation. These diversions have degraded the riparian ecosystem, coastal wetlands, and estuaries. Environmental services provided by restored flows in the Yaqui River would include healthy riverside vegetation, wetlands and estuaries, fish and wildlife habitats, non-use values, and recreation. A contingent valuation survey in 40 neighborhoods in the most populated Delta city, Ciudad Obregon, was administered to estimate non-market values of instream uses. Respondents were given a current and hypothetical Delta scenario (the latter assumed restored water flows in the River) and asked a willingness-to-pay (WTP) question regarding purchasing water for environmental flows through higher water bills. Results from 148 in-person interviews indicated that households would pay an average of 73 pesos monthly. WTP was found related to key variables suggested by economic theory and contingent valuation studies elsewhere: income, educational level, number of children in the household, and initial bid amount. These results will allow decision makers to compare the benefits generated by different water uses, including environmental services, and to manage scarce water resources under a long-term sustainable approach.     

中国入境商务旅游流空间分布特征及流动规律研究

通过构建中国入境商务旅游流网络,运用社会网络分析法定量分析中国入境商务旅游流的空间分布特征及流动规律。研究表明：①中国入境商务旅游流地理分布不均衡,在空间上形成＂四点＂（广州、北京、上海、香港）、＂两面＂（长江三角洲、珠江三角洲）的地理分布格局。②广州是入境商务旅游流最重要的集散中心,入境商务旅游流主要在北京、上海、广州、香港之间转移流动。③中国入境商务旅游流网络中节点由四个层次城市组成,分别是一级核心城市（广州、北京、上海、香港）;二级核心城市（苏州、桂林、杭州）;三级核心城市（义乌、西安、黄山、深圳、无锡、厦门、澳门）及边缘城市（网络中其他节点城市）。     

Participatory decision-making in land use planning: An application in Costa Rica

The economic, social and environmental implications of electricity generation for land use planning are a significant and complex problem in many countries. One reason for this complexity is the existence of several stakeholders with very different views or perceptions of the different criteria underlying the decision-making process. Therefore, the aggregation of individual stakeholder preferences into a single collective preference is a crucial problem. In this paper, this type of problem is addressed with the help of a methodology based upon the definition of a consensus within a distance-based framework. The methodology is applied to a case study in Costa Rica at two levels: at a national level and at a river basin level. The River Birrís was chosen because the conflict of interests between agricultural production and electricity generation are especially significant in this basin.     

Estimating the long-term effects of utility energy conservation programs: A Pacific Northwest example

The Bonneville Power Administration operated a Residential Weatherization Pilot Program from 1980 through 1982. The program provided free home energy audits to 7200 electrically heated homes in the Pacific Northwest and gave zero-interest loans to weatherize 4100 of these homes. The total cost of the program was almost $11 million.The pilot program and its regionwide successor are intended to provide benefits to the Pacific Northwest region for roughly 30 years in terms of reduced residential energy consumption. Therefore, it is important to determine the durability of the electricity savings due to the program. Estimates of long-term savings affect power supply planning in the region and influence the economics of the program itself (i.e., the level of funding that BPA can justify for the program).This article presents empirical results concerning the total and net energy-saving affects of the BPA pilot program 1, 2, and 3 years after participation. The total annual electricity saving experienced by households that received an energy audit and a weatherization loan averaged 5300 kWh 1 year after participation, increasing to 6000 and 6500 kWh 2 and 3 years after participation, respectively. The net annual electricity saving that can be directly attributed to the program for these audit plus loan households averaged 4500 kWh (15% of preprogram use) 1 year after participation and declined slightly to about 4300 kWh 2 years and 4200 kWh 3 years after participation.The article uses these empirical findings with a simple simulation model to estimate the effects of the program into the future. Assuming that electricity prices remain constant after 1984, total energy savings increase to a level of 7000 kWh, while net energy savings decrease to 3600 kWh for the audit plus loan households. Alternative electricity price scenarios are discussed.