Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Abstract

Our paper examines the long-run relation between economic growth and current account equilibrium in Vietnam, using a multicountry balance-of-payments-constrained growth model. We find that for the whole sample (1985–2010) Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted by the model. We also find that the balance-of-payments-constrained growth rate shifted after the 1997 Asian crisis. Since the relative price effect is neutral, the volume effects dominate in setting the balance-of-payments constraint. On the one hand, owing to the high income elasticities of exports, growth in advanced countries has a strong multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. On the other hand, this effect is hindered by a strong “appetite” for imports coming from Asia. Finally, we assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017.     

GDP growth in Russia: different capital stock series and the terms of trade

There are different academic assessments of the principal forces behind Russia’s GDP growth. Studies that reconstruct capital stocks using gross fixed capital formation and the perpetual inventory method find that total factor productivity growth has been paramount to GDP growth. On the other hand, capital services datasets that have recently been made available find that capital developments have been instrumental in driving economic growth. We reconstruct a capital stock series for Russia for 1995–2013 and compare the results to two capital services time series using the Solow growth model. We also take into account terms of trade developments that have lent strong support to Russia’s economy. The terms of trade is shown to have been an important factor behind the development of gross fixed capital formation and thus GDP growth.     

ICT and income inequality: a cross-national perspective

The importance of information and communications technology (ICT) for economic growth and development is widely researched and seemingly well understood, but the effect of such investments on income inequality is less well documented. On the one hand, improvements in infrastructure are expected to expand economic opportunities for previously underserved populations. On the other hand, ICT growth may exacerbate inequality due to differential access and skill premiums. We use panel data from 109 countries during the period 2001–2014 to examine the empirical connection between ICT and income inequality in a cross-national context. Our results suggest that the effect of ICT on income inequality depends both on the specific type of ICT and on the measure of income inequality. In addition, the magnitude of ICT’s effect on income inequality is comparable to that of more traditional forms of economic infrastructure. Finally, we find that the association between ICT and income inequality is conditional on other economic and political characteristics.     

The effects of old and new media on children’s weight

Childhood obesity rates have recently been rising in many countries. It has been suggested in the literature that changes in children’s media exposure may contribute to explaining this trend. I investigate whether or not this hypothesis is supported by data. I contribute to the literature by focusing not only on television but also on new media – computers and video games. The Child Development Supplement to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used for the analysis. To address the endogeneity of children’s media exposure, I use dynamic and panel data models. This is another improvement upon the existing literature. Additionally, an extensive list of control variables is included in the regressions. I find that video game playing or computer use has no effect on children’s body weight. On the other hand, television viewing may increase children’s body weight slightly.     

通货膨胀目标区与非线性泰勒法则

本文采用STR、TV-STR模型,利用1991年1月至2010年3月的月度数据分析了我国货币政策反应函数,与现有中国货币政策反应函数的文献相比主要有以下几个结论:第一,我国货币政策反应函数存在着结构变化,先是在1997年11月突变,然后存在一个渐变过程.第二,1997年11月前后相应存在着两个通货膨胀目标区,分别为[14.109,16.123]和[0.985,2.902],且后一通货膨胀目标区要比前一通货膨胀目标区合理.第三,随着时间推移,我国货币政策反应函数的产出缺口反应系数,逐渐由负转正,利率平滑系数则逐渐变小,这反应了随着我国利率市场化的推进,我国的货币政策操作开始越来越多的使用利率这一价格工具.     

基于广义虚拟经济视角下的中国居民消费与房价关系研究

根据居民消费理论,一般而言财富增加会促进消费,国外大量经验研究已证实了房价对消费存在正向的作用。但对于中国而言,房价上涨(财富增加)似乎并没有带动消费的增加?这是什么原因呢?我们认为房价上涨不仅有财富效应,也有与之相对应的替代效应(或称为挤出效应),这是因为短期内房价上涨使得人们购房支出增加而挤出日常消费。另一方面,基于广义虚拟经济视角的消费者心理分析也能更好地解释这一现象。本文利用1999-2010年我国的省际面板数据进行估计后发现,在我国,房价上涨会对消费的变动产生显著的负影响。对此,本文认为,这主要是由于替代效应造成的,同时中国以家庭为观念的社会结构也使得人们宁愿挤出日常消费也要承受"房奴"的生活。     

The determinants of firms’ global diversification decisions

Why do some firms choose to be ‘born global’ and become early internationalizing firms (EIFs) while others choose to be ‘born-again global’ and develop into late internationalizing firms (LIFs)? What are the main factors impacting a firm’s decision on the timing of global diversification? Based on the theories of diversification, this study examines the role of peer influence and desire for growth on the timing of a firm’s globalization decision. We further study the idiosyncratic risk and the adoption of technological innovation hypotheses on global diversification. Our results document that innovation efficiency strongly enhances EIFs’ propensity to global diversification. On the other hand, peer pressure and idiosyncratic risk level significantly influence EIFs not to globalize. In contrast, LIFs are positively influenced by their industry peers, showing how young and mature companies respond to the market competition in a different manner.     

Do longer constitutions corrupt?

Tsebelis and Nardi (2016) and Tsebelis (2017) report that constitutional length correlates with lower levels of GDP per capita. They argue that this may be the case because longer constitutions lead to greater corruption. However, uncovering a causal relationship between constitutional length and corruption is difficult. On the one hand, political elites may pressure drafters to include specific provisions that facilitate their rent-seeking efforts. On the other hand, constitutional drafters may be responding to corruption by including a large number of specific safeguards. Our aim in this paper is to explore whether there is a causal effect of constitutional length on corruption. We utilize data from the Comparative Constitutions Project (CCP) to identify 5 cases when a country experienced a ≥50% increase in constitutional length. For each of those cases, we compare the subsequent change in corruption to that of a synthetic control. We report evidence of a significant post-treatment increase in corruption for 3 out of 5 cases (Ecuador in both 1997 and 2008; Venezuela in 1999). However, the 2008 Ecuador result is not robust to a placebo test; and in the case of Venezuela it is difficult to distinguish a constitutional length effect from a “Chavez effect” (Grier and Maynard 2016). The evidence that longer constitutions corrupt is weak.     

The testable implications of competitive equilibrium in economies with externalities

Suppose that one has a data set consisting of prices and individual endowments for some economy. Brown and Matzkin (Econometrica 64:1249–1262, 1996) have shown that there are conditions that the data have to satisfy, if the observed prices are determined by the competitive equilibrium process, given the observed endowments, when there are no external effects in the economy’s interactions. The results here show that the same conclusion does not apply, in general, if the economy exhibits externalities. On the other hand: (i) some restrictions exist if there exist at least two commodities on which the individuals’ preferences are weakly separable; (ii) although extremely mild, restrictions exist too if one observed individual consumption for the economy that causes the external effects; and (iii) importantly, even if the previous two cases do not apply, restrictions exist when the externalities that exist are in the form of a public good.     

Buyer behavior under the Best Offer mechanism: A theoretical model and empirical evidence from eBay Motors

We use data from eBay Best Offer listings to analyze haggling over prices in transactions with one seller and a series of potential buyers for a limited-supply product. We characterize this transaction mechanism as a sequential-move game to investigate buyer behavior. Our model suggests that a buyer's offer price increases in relations to the number of buyers who have previously made an offer on the item and the Buy-It-Now price chosen by the seller. On the other hand, the offer price decreases for items which have been listed on eBay for a longer period of time. We empirically test our theoretical predictions using data on the sales of Toyota Camry cars on eBay Motors. The empirical evidence is consistent with our model.     

A new context for managing overseas direct investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises

Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their overseas direct investment (ODI) have played an important role in China’s economic development. But the rapid expansion of SOE-dominated ODI has also raised concerns, including about state capitalism and the need for competitive neutrality. This paper considers China’s strategy for managing ODI by its SOEs given a changing context. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is rapidly growing and will soon become the largest economy in the world. China’s role in the world, as well as its global responsibility, is therefore changing. China needs to establish a win-win and harmonious relationship with the rest of the world, and ODI has a role to play in this. On the other hand, China’s growth model is shifting to become greener, more balanced, and innovation-driven. China’s changing international role and the changing growth model have created new imperatives for, and constraints on, ODI by SOEs and reforms to SOEs. This paper aims to examine ODI by Chinese SOEs from the two dimensions of China’s changing role and growth model. It discusses strategies for better managing ODI by Chinese SOEs in the new context that is emerging.     

中小企业全面预算战略管理研究——基于平衡计分卡的分析

中小企业全面预算管理应用中存在的最大问题就是不能与企业战略有效衔接,企业在执行和控制预算过程中无法将企业战略行动化.而平衡计分卡是一个战略实施机制,以战略为中心,从实现企业战略的财务、客户、内部运营、学习和成长等4个完整且相互联系的方面对企业实施全方面、多维度管理控制的一种先进的管理工具.将平衡计分卡和预算管理进行有效整合与协同,将有利于平衡计分卡在预算管理中的成功引入,一方面把企业抽象的使命和战略目标转化为明晰的预算目标,解决预算与战略脱节的问题;另一方面构建一个基于平衡计分卡的全面预算管理系统来实施企业的战略,并获得与战略实施相关的反馈信息.从而实现中小企业全面预算战略管理的发展方向.     

中国品牌经济发展的地区差距与影响因素——基于Dagum基尼系数分解方法与中国品牌500强数据的实证研究

本文使用世界品牌实验室发布的2004-2011年中国品牌500强数据,采用Dagum(1997)的基尼系数方法测算了中国品牌经济发展的地区差距并进行了地区分解,对品牌经济发展地区差距的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结论表明:总体上中国品牌经济呈现快速发展态势而地区差距在持续扩大。具体而言,中国品牌经济发展的地区差距主要来源于超变密度和地区内差距的贡献,地区间差距虽呈上升趋势但其贡献相对较小。进一步地,动态面板数据的两步法系统GMM估计表明,一个区域内的品牌经济发展存在显著的循环累积效应,市场容量、区位条件对于品牌经济发展具有显著的正向促进作用,而R&D和市场竞争程度对于品牌经济的发展作用因被解释变量的不同而不同,而且在统计上也并不显著。     

Wagner’s law versus displacement effect

The public sector has grown dramatically over the past few centuries in many developed countries. In this article, we use wavelet methods to distinguish between two leading explanations for this growth – Wagner’s law and the displacement effect. In doing so, we use the long-term data of 10 OECD countries for a maximum time span of 1800–2009. We find that the validity of Wagner’s law is likely to vary strongly over time for each country. A roughly similar feature in most of the countries is that the law is less valid in the earliest stage of economic development as well as in the advanced stages, with the validity tending to follow an inverted U-shaped pattern with economic development. Further, our results indicate that the long-run growth of government size cannot be adequately explained by Wagner’s law. On the other hand, the displacement effect appears to account for the bulk of the growth in most of the countries.     

Study on Residents’ Perception on the Policy of ＂Native Tourism and Recreation Plan in Guangdong Province＂ in the Pearl River Delta：case study from Guangzhou,Shenzhen and Zhongshan City

国际金融危机与休闲时代背景下,广东省推出＂国民旅游休闲计划＂对于促进转型、拉动内需具有重要意义,而居民对该政策的感知及态度将直接影响政策实施效果,根据居民的态度调整优化该项政策显得十分必要,国内外研究居民对重大旅游政策感知的成果鲜见。以广州、深圳、中山等珠三角城市为案例地,通过问卷调查,运用统计描述、因子分析、聚类分析等方法进行分析,结果表明：①居民对国民旅游休闲计划的了解度不是很高,反映出计划的宣传力度不够;②居民高度认可与支持国民旅游休闲计划带来的经济刺激作用;③居民对休闲计划带来的4个积极因子赞成度很高,也普遍认为计划存在的一些问题;④学历、收入水平越高的中青年人对计划的感知度和赞成度越高,学生对休闲计划能够给予更全面的评价,多属于国民旅游休闲计划的＂理性支持者＂。     

The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth.     

中国农食产品标准国际化能否提升出口产品质量?

执行国际标准能够促进产品质量提升,但也会给企业带来过高的遵从成本,从而可能不利于企业产品质量的提升。选取2000-2013年中国农食产品标准数据与企业-产品层面海关数据,实证分析中国农食产品标准"国际化"对企业出口产品质量的影响。结果显示:从整体来看,标准"国际化"对企业出口产品质量效应显著为负,而我国自行制定的国家标准对质量影响显著为正;按照对国际标准采纳程度分类,以及对出口产品和出口目的国发展程度分类,分样本检验发现,标准"国际化"对企业出口产品质量存在异质性影响。为此,照搬发达国家主导制订的国际标准不适用于中国出口企业,可能会由于过高的遵从成本阻碍企业产品质量升级。另一方面,以中国为代表的发展中国家需积极参与到国际标准的制定中,从而减少过高遵从成本对产品质量升级及出口带来的不利影响。     

基于人力资本分布方差的中国国民经济生产函数研究

由于存在劳动力剩余,用就业总量和反映人力资本积累规模的数量指标均难以有效解释中国经济增长。因此,本文用质量指标替代数量指标,选取全部就业人员中具有高中(含职业教育)至大学本科阶段学历者受教育水平的分布方差来测度人力资本,并构建相应的国民经济生产函数,解释中国1997—2009年间的产出增长。研究结果表明:本文提出的方法是有效的,当前中国人力资本投资的边际产出效果高于实物资本投资,职业教育的边际产出贡献高于高等教育。     

资源型城市金融锁定与反锁定研究——以铜陵市为例

文章以资源型城市铜陵市为例,运用实证分析方法,对铜陵市十余个行业资金配置效率进行排序,并通过与EVA(经济增加值)回报率排序进行比较分析,来探讨资源型城市的金融锁定与反锁定安排。认为在资源型城市中,金融服务较为集中于以资源为主导的行业,产业结构制约了金融资源配置的优化,欠佳的信贷结构又反过来加深了产业结构的锁定。其次银行业金融机构要想在资源型经济中获得可持续发展,就不能固守单一追求效率原则。一方面通过信贷结构的调整,推动产业的转型和优化升级,延伸产业链,提升产品附加值;另一方面通过实施金融资源重置,谋划新兴工业化经济发展战略,打破传统的过度依赖于少数几个产业的瓶颈。     

Fisher’s Effect: An Empirical Examination Using India’s Time Series Data

The study examines the Fisher’s hypothesis using India’s macroeconomic data with main objective of ascertaining the empirical relationship between nominal interest rate and expected inflation. The study collected monthly time series data on interest rate (lending rate) and CPI growth rate (inflation) from Reserve Bank of India’s database spanning from 1990M01 to 2015M03. To achieve the objective, the study first examined the univariate stochastic properties of the series using test that assumed the presence of structural: Zivot and Andrews (J Bus Econ Stat 10(3):251–270, 1992) and Perron (J Econ 80:355–385, 1997) on one hand and those that assumed no break: Elliot et al. (Econometrica 64:813–836, 1996) and Kwiatkowski et al. (J Econom 54:159–178, 1992) on the other hand. The result for the univariate stochastic properties revealed that inflation is level stationary whereas lending rate is differenced stationary. This finding is consistent with the two tests considered as mentioned above. To examined the Fisher’s effect, given the result of the univariate stochastic properties, the study checked the multivariate counterpart using test that assumed break; Gregory and Hensen (J Econom 70:99–126, 1996) and the one that assumed no break; Pesaran et al. (J Appl Econom 16:289–326, 2001). The result reveals the absence of long run equilibrium between nominal interest rate and inflation for the full and sub-samples which is against Fisher’s proposition. This finding can be attributed to the following reasons: firstly, the conduct of monetary policy by RBI is passive; that is, the policy rate response less than proportionate to change in inflation. Secondly, the presence of distortion in the interest rate pass-through channel makes the sign, speed and magnitude of monetary policy uncertain and finally, the dominant of informal financial sector in India that makes short term policy rate ineffective monetary policy instrument. Therefore the study concludes that the conduct of monetary policy is responsible for the rejection of Fisher’s hypothesis in India.