煤炭价格指数的理论设计与应用研究

论证了在当前煤炭价格风险凸现的情况下,推出煤炭价格指数是运用煤炭期货、期权及互换等金融衍生工具的重要前提,并借鉴国外煤炭价格指数应用与研究的经验,提出我国煤炭价格指数的基本体系及编制的基本原则和基本方法.     

开放经济条件下公司使用利率互换的动机

在开放经济条件下,以公司为背景,对利率互换的使用动机进行研究。给出了一个利率互换对利率风险控制作用的信息经济学解释,证明了利用利率互换,有利于公司利率风险暴露的降低,尤其是在债务融资时同时使用利率互换可以有效控制利率风险并减少融资成本。     

规避基差风险策略研究

基差风险是指基差的不确定性．它是由于人们在对现货市场进行套期保值时转移价格风险而产生的。在非完美市场的情况下,基差的变化往往不尽如入意。如何控制或规避基差风险是摆在人们面前的又一课题。本文对基差风险的产生、成因及控制或规避进行了系统分析和研究。     

Is hedging successful at reducing financial risk exposure?

This article analyses whether firms use risk management instruments for hedging or speculative purposes. First, by analysing the relationship between the firm’s stock returns and financial risks in 567 Euronext firms, we measure the firm’s exposure to risk. Next, we investigate the effect of hedging in such exposures, addressing simultaneously the endogeneity of hedging decision through a treatment effect methodology. We have found that firms in our sample display higher percentages of exposure, when weighed against preceding studies, and confirmed that hedging reduces the level of the underlying financial exposure, concluding that firms use risk management instruments with hedging purposes.     

Comments on “Consumption Values of Trade Unions”

The credit default swap (CDS) is implicated in the global financial crises because a vast market for securities collateralized by subprime mortgages and consumer debt could not have materialized if hedge funds and other holders of these instruments lacked a means of hedging default "risk." The argument is made that the CDS is an inherently defective concept because it is based on the assumption that future states of the economy are subject to probabilistic risk as opposed to uncertainty in the Keynes-Knight-Shackle-Davidson sense. The CDS also manifests the paradox of derivatives. By enabling individual money managers to safely increase leverage, it causes a system-wide buildup of leverage and financial fragility.     

价格鉴证风险及应对的初步分析

价格鉴证作为社会主义市场经济活动中的重要内容,对于保障社会经济的健康运行发挥着重要的作用。价格鉴证人员作为价格鉴证工作的主要承担者,为价格鉴证工作的发展做出了重大贡献,但也面临着一系列潜在的危险。从价格鉴证风险的产生与发展角度出发,对应对价格鉴证风险提供相应的政策建议。     

全面风险管理:必然的选择

始于运用VaR方法度量金融市场风险的金融风险管理革命,目前已扩展至对企业的全面风险管理。一个理想的全面风险管理体系应站在企业全局的角度去识别、度量和管理风险。全面风险管理体系的优势在于:它有助于通过对冲风险以达到降低收益波动性的目的,从而增加企业价值;它有助于降低对冲的成本,因为它实际上是对净风险的对冲,而不是在单独的风险管理方法下的逐个对冲,这就使得风险的对冲成本下降了。     

Do central bank foreign exchange interventions affect market expectations?

The aim of this article is to study the impact of the Brazilian central bank swap interventions on the FX market from 2006 to 2013. In this period, these nontraditional interventions were the main FX instrument of the Brazilian Government. Since the central bank operates through a sequence of daily interventions in most of the period, we employ the event study method, which is appropriate to investigate cumulative impact of intervention episodes. We analyse the effects on the risk neutral distribution of BRL-USD exchange rate, which incorporates economic valuation besides the likelihoods. We investigate both changes in level and in the dynamics of the moments. Our tests indicate that interventions have little effects on the exchange rate distribution. We only find evidences of some impact on the dynamics of the mean, volatility and skewness over long horizons when the central bank takes short positions on the exchange rate.     

Can cryptocurrencies be a safe haven: a tail risk perspective analysis

Cryptocurrencies are one of the most promising financial innovations of the last decade. Different from major stock indices and the commodities of gold and crude oil, the cryptocurrencies exhibit some characteristics of immature market assets, such as auto-correlated and non-stationary return series, higher volatility, and higher tail risks measured by conditional Value at Risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES). Using an extreme-value-theory-based method, we evaluate the extreme characteristics of seven representative cryptocurrencies during 08 August 2015–01 August 2017. We find that during the sub-period of 01 August 2016–01 August 2017, there are finite loss boundaries for most of the selected cryptocurrencies, which are similar to the commodities, and different from the stock indices. Meanwhile, we find that left tail correlations are much stronger than right tail correlations among the cryptocurrencies, and tail correlations increased after August 2016, suggesting high and growing systematic extreme risks. We also find that cryptocurrencies to be both left tail independent, and cross tail independent with four selected stock indices, which implies part of the safe-haven function of the cryptocurrencies, indicating their ability to be a great diversifier for the stock market as gold, but not enough to be a tail hedging tool like gold.     

股指期货在风险管理中的应用

股指期货属于金融期货的一种,是以股票市场的股票价格指数为标的物的期货合约.在很多发达的股票市场乃至资本市场中,股指期货扮演着规避风险、套期保值的重要角色.在利用股指期货对股票组合进行套期保值时,可能面临各种风险,其中,基差风险是套期保值者面临的最主要风险.利用向量误差修正模型可以估计最小风险套期保值比,为投资者综合选择风险最小的套期保值策略提供了现实的、可操作的定量分析工具.     

Interest rate risk estimation: a new duration-based approach

Duration is widely used by fixed income managers to proxy the interest rate risk of their assets and liabilities. However, it is well known that the convexity of the price-yield relationship introduces approximation errors that grow with changes in yield. In this article we suggest a new approach, ‘discrete duration’, which significantly improves upon the accuracy of traditional duration methods and achieves a level of accuracy close to the more complex ‘duration-plus-convexity’ measure. In particular, discrete duration performs particularly well for long dated and low coupon rate bonds where the estimation error is impressively close to zero.     

风险与监管双重影响下的商业银行行为选择

本文运用微观银行理论的产业组织方法，构建了一个含有信用风险和准备金监管要求的风险中性商业银行行为模型。在引入资本监管要求后，借助风险价值（MaR）概念，分析了影响银行行为的因素。结果发现，法定准备金不影响银行的风险行为，但资本监管要求导致风险中性的银行表现出风险厌恶。商业银行有内在的激励去从事风险对冲，并可以从中获益。最后，结合我国的实际情况，提出了银行改革和金融市场建设的相关建议。     

Intraday hedging with financial options: the case of electricity

As market intermediaries, electricity suppliers purchase electricity from the wholesale market or self-generate to deliver their customers. However, electricity suppliers are uncertain about how much electricity their residential customers will use at any hour of the day until they actually turn switches on. While demand uncertainty is a common feature of all commodity markets, suppliers generally rely on storage to manage it. Singularly, electricity suppliers are exposed to joint volumetric and price risk on an hourly basis given the physical attributes of electricity. In the literature on electricity markets, few articles compare the efficiency of forward contracts, options and physical assets (i.e. power plants) within intraday hourly hedging portfolios, whereas electricity markets are precisely hourly markets. We analyse portfolios made of forwards, options and/or power plants for specific hourly clusters (9 am, 12 pm, 18 pm, 9 pm) based on electricity market data from 2013 to 2015 from the integrated German–Austrian spot market. Through a VaR model, we prove that intraday hedging with forwards is structurally inefficient compared to financial options and physical assets, no matter the cluster hour. Moreover, our results demonstrate the contribution of ‘out of the money’ options for all hours within volatile spot markets.     

Hedging the portfolio of raw materials and the commodity under the mark-to-market risk

This paper considers the hedging problem of a portfolio composed of raw materials and a commodity. A new theoretical model is presented to manage the risk exposure of the portfolio under the mark-to-market risk. Moreover, we employ the Lemke algorithm to obtain the optimal hedging strategy. We use a case of the soybean oil manufacturer from May 2008 to June 2011 to illustrate the proposed model and algorithm. The results show that the mark-to-market risk must be taken into account when devising the hedging strategies.