Capital utilization,economies of scale and technical change in the growth of total factor productivity: An Explanation of South Korean manufacturing Growth

This paper presents a method of interpreting the growth of total factor productivity, directly linking the productivity growth to key parameters of a specific cost function. It shows that the productivity index can be decomposed into effects due to (a) technical change, (b) non-constant returns to scale, and (c) change in capital utilization. The decomposition framework was applied to data on South Korean manufacturing. During the 1961–1980 period in South Korean manufacturing, the total factor productivity was found to have grown at 3% per annum, scale economies contributed about 38% of the growth of TFP, the technical change 45%, and the change in the capital utilization rate 17%. The results of this study support of the view that for growing, less-developed economies, the growth in capital utilization rate is a source of growth in total productivity that is too significant to be ignored.     

Reform Unleashed Korean Growth

Before the reform in the 1960s, twin vicious circles perpetuated the shortages of foreign exchange and labor skill, and prevented the Korean economy from realizing its considerable growth potential. The breakthrough came when the Japanese labor shortage facilitated Korean exports, after economic normalization between the two countries. The reformed institutions reduced rent‐seeking and refocused Korean managerial efforts to pioneering activities. The Korean takeoff scenario is a shared theme among all four Asian newly industrialized economies cited by Lucas (1988) as showcases.     

Scale economies in manufacturing: Problems of robust estimation

The purpose of the paper is to develop a cost frontier model and its robust estimation for analyzing the impact of scale economies in the manufacturing sector. Indirectly our estimates provide a test of the new growth theory which emphasizes the role of increasing returns to scale as a major force in the sustained growth process. An illustrative application to the South Korean manufacturing sector finds strong supportive evidence for significant scale economies, though in recent years it may be declining for the Korean economy.     

The structure of production in South Korea's manufacturing sector

This paper estimates a model of producer behavior for South Korean manufacturing that simultaneously identifies substitution elasticities and scale economies. A non-homothetic translog function is employed which takes on various other functional forms (i.e., Cobb–Douglas, Homothetic, Homogeneous) as special or limiting cases. Four significant conclusions are: (a) there is potential scale economies in each subsector of South Korean manufacturing, (b) the substitutabilities between factor inputs are relatively low, (c) factor demands are price elastic, (d) the scale economies are correlated with the factor intensity.     

Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

The service paradox and endogenous economic growth

“Stagnant services” [Baumol, W.J., Blackman, S.A.B., Wolff, E.N., 1989. Productivity and American Leadership. MIT Press, Cambridge (Mass.)] are characterised by low productivity growth and rising prices, but also, and paradoxically, by output growth proportional to the rest of the economy, and hence by an expanding employment share, with a negative effect on aggregate productivity growth. This paper considers that many of these services, inclusive of education, health and cultural services, contribute to human capital formation, thus enhancing growth. This effect is distinguished according to whether it is a side-effect of spending on services or an intentional investment by households, as in Lucas’ model [Lucas, R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3–42.] Preferences for services are assumed to rise with income. The main result is that the productivity of stagnant services and their quality displayed in raising human capital play a central role in opposing the negative Baumol effect on growth, and in reinforcing the explanation of the paradox.     

The Uzawa–Lucas model without scale effects: theory and empirical evidence

Numerous cross-sectional tests have been performed to evaluate the predictions of recent growth theories such as the Uzawa–Lucas growth model. In a series of papers and in his book, Jones [Q. J. Econ. 110 (1995a) 495; J. Political Econ. 103 (1995b) 759; The upcoming slowdown in US economic growth, Stanford University, Stanford] has shifted the attention toward the time series predictions of endogenous growth models. By contrasting endogenous growth models with facts, one is frequently confronted with the prediction that levels of economic variables, such as human capital, imply lasting effects on the per capita growth rate of an economy. As stylized facts show, measures of education or human capital in most advanced countries have dramatically increased, mostly more than the gross domestic production (GDP). Yet, the growth rates have roughly remained constant or even declined. In this paper we modify the growth effects of education and human capital in our variant of the Uzawa–Lucas growth models and test the model using time series data for the US and Germany from 1962.1 to 1996.4. We consider two versions. In the first, we treat the time spent for education as exogenously given and we neglect the external effect of human capital. In the second version, the time spent for education is an endogenous variable and the external effect of human capital is taken into account. Our results demonstrate that the model is compatible with the time series for aggregate data in those countries. The parameters fall into reasonable ranges.     

A note on work–leisure choice, human capital accumulation, and endogenous growth

The growth model of Lucas [Lucas Jr., R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22 (1), 3–42] is enriched with people having the opportunity to optimally allocate a fraction of their time to non-productive activities (‘leisure’). It is found that the chosen amount of leisure reduces the steady-state rate of growth of per capita output. This implies that the association between income and welfare may not be as strong as it is usually assumed to be. The optimal allocation of time among activities depends on some of the parameters and the marginal product of physical capital per capita.     

Growth and social security: the role of human capital

This paper studies the growth and efficiency effects of pay-as-you-go financed social security when human capital is the engine of growth. Employing a variant of the Lucas model [Lucas, R.E., 1988. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 3–42.] with overlapping generations, it is shown that a properly designed, unfunded social security system leads to higher output growth than a fully funded one. Furthermore, the economy with an unfunded social security is efficient, while the other one is not. These results stand in sharp contrast to those obtained in models where the reason for economic growth is physical capital accumulation.     

Endogenous NIC-formation in a North-South framework

In a model where initially the North specialises in manufactures and the South in primary products, international investment leads to a rising Northern growth rate. If this rate comes to exceed that of Northern labour growth, a full-employment barrier is reached, pushing up Northern wages. This may lead Northern capitalists to divert some manufacturing production to a favoured part of the South. Additional mechanisms are postulated that allow capitalists in the South to participate in, and possibly dominate manufacturing accumulation in that region.     

Are ICT Spillovers Driving the New Economy?

Some observers have raised the possibility that production spillovers and network effects associated with information and communications technology (ICT) are an important part of the "New Economy." Across U.S. manufacturing industries, however, ICT capital appears correlated with the acceleration of average labor productivity (ALP) growth as predicted by a standard production model, but not with total factor productivity (TFP) growth as these New Economy forces imply. Once one allows for productivity differences across industries, measured TFP growth is uncorrelated with all capital inputs, including ICT capital. This provides little evidence for a New Economy story of ICT-related spillovers or network effects driving TFP growth throughout U.S. manufacturing.     

INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY: AN ANALYSIS ON THE KOREAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

This study estimates an aggregate production function of manufacturing industry using panel data of 11 Korean regions covering 1977–1992. While the previous studies regard infrastructure as a direct input for production, the present study proposes that infrastructure has an effect on actual output by enhancing technical efficiency thereby, reducing the gap between maximum potential output and actual output. To investigate the relationship between infrastructure and technical efficiency, a stochastic frontier approach is applied to Korean manufacturing industry. Confirming the presence of substantial technical inefficiency in production, this study shows that an increase in infrastructure reduces the technical inefficiency level. The study also finds that, contrary to expectation, the industrialized regions are less efficient than the less industrialized ones. (JEL O20, H54, C23)     

Endogenous population with human and physical capital accumulation

This paper proposes an economic growth model with population growth and physical and human capital accumulation. The physical capital accumulation is built on the Solow growth model (Solow in Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956). The education and human capital accumulation is influenced by the Uzawa–Lucas model (Uzawa in Int Econ Rev 6:18–31, 1965; Lucas in J Monet Econ 22:3–42, 1988). The population dynamics are influenced by the Haavelmo population model (Haavelmo in a study in the theory of economic evolution. Haavelmo, Amsterdam, 1954) and the Barro–Becker fertility choice model (Barro and Becker in Econometrica 57:481–501, 1989). We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework, applying an alternative utility function proposed by Zhang (Econ Lett 42:105–110, 1993). The model describes a dynamic interdependence between population change, wealth accumulation, human capital accumulation, and division of labor. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of equilibrium points and to plot the motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the mortality rate parameter, the propensity to receive education, the human capital utilization efficiency, and the mortality rate elasticity of human capital upon dynamic paths of the system.     

Validation of an R&D-based computable general equilibrium model

A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is useful for the calculation of macroeconomic effects caused by policy impacts, but it has been considered a sticking point to evaluate how well the CGE model describes the real economy. Among various possible reasons for the difference between the standard CGE model and the real world, this paper focuses on a limited number of primary input factors and a fixed figure for the calibrated coefficient. A CGE model incorporating research and development (R&D) activity is suggested as an alternative to address the problems with the standard CGE model. The proposed model includes the following two setups: (1) a sector's own knowledge is adopted as a production factor, and (2) others' knowledge is regarded as a source of spillover effect to increase the total factor productivity (TFP) coefficient. This R&D-based CGE model is evaluated on whether its correspondence with reality is better than the standard model that omits the two setups. The two models compute baseline scenarios of South Korean economic growth from 1995 to 2010, and these results are compared to actual data. The results show that the R&D-based model fits better than the standard model in cases where the country has high TFP growth.     

高等教育:韩国经济原动力

韩国作为我国的邻邦,近些年经济发展势头迅猛。韩国经济的跳跃式发展,其中一个与众不同的原因是由于起主要推动作用的教育的驱动。剖析了韩国经济发展的特征及其原动力,建立了内生经济增长模型,并以韩国经济发展与高等教育发展的20年的数据为依据,通过实证分析证明了高等教育是推动韩国经济增长的原因,最终总结出韩国的高等教育对我国高等教育未来发展的启示。     

SOCIAL STATUS,EDUCATION AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN A TWO‐SECTOR MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH*

This paper extends the relative wealth specification of status preference to the two‐sector Uzawa (1965 )– Lucas (1988 ) model and examines the effectiveness of government spending on economic growth. It is found that the desire for relative wealth‐induced social status and/or the education component of relative wealth‐induced social status are important ingredients in determining the growth rate effects of government spending. Provided that the agent is concerned with his or her relative social position, the education‐induced social status plays a more important role than the physical‐asset‐induced social status in determining the validity of public spending on growth. If individuals do not care about their education‐driven social rewards, then an increase in government spending has no effect on the balanced growth rate regardless of the presence of the physical‐asset‐induced social status. A rise in government spending reduces the long‐run growth rate if the education‐induced social status is present.     

An empirical study of firm productivity growth based on the dynamic selection model: Effects on the recent decline in Korean exports

Export and productivity growth in the Korean manufacturing sector have both been slow since 2011. To understand this relationship, we examine the productivity distributions of manufacturing firms in Korea by applying the dynamic selection model developed by Sampson (2016). The fitness of the dynamic selection model suggests that a slowdown in the market selection mechanism may be a crucial contributor to the stagnant growth in the productivity. In addition, we find that the productivity difference between exporting firms and non-exporting firms has decreased and the low productivity growth of firms exporting to non-foreign affiliates has contributed to this trend.     

健康、教育与经济增长

健康与教育是人力资本诸多形成方式中最重要的两种,长期以来内生增长理论强调和重视教育人力资本对于经济增长的贡献和作用,但健康与教育之间的相互影响以及健康人力资本对于经济增长的作用却未得到应有的重视。基于此,本文在Lucas(1988),Van Zon和Muysken(2001)模型基础上,构建了一个包含最终产品、健康和教育的三部门模型。静态均衡、转移动态和仿真实验的结果表明:在总体人力资本的形成过程中,健康对广义人力资本的贡献份额大于教育;健康的增量而非健康人力资本存量水平有利于长期经济增长;健康的改善必须同时辅以教育人力资本的提高才能促进经济增长;政府公共健康支出对于健康人力资本的形成具有重要作用,有助于促进发展机会的均等和减贫;重视人力资本积累的经济体在10-15年后会呈现明显的经济绩效的改善。     

On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach

This paper reviews some of China's high-frequency economic indicators and our principal findings on their selection and use. Our aim is to develop a composite index of coincident economic indicators (coincident economic index, CEI) which can be used to obtain timely information on the present state of the China's economy and provide an appropriate measure to analyze China's short-term macroeconomic dynamics. Notably, combining industrial production, retail sales, manufacturing employment, income of financial institutions and passenger traffic volume, they work well as the method for dating business cycles for China. It shows that, over the past two decades, there was one marked recession which occurred in 1988:8 to 1989:12. In addition to this business cycle chronology we also develop a growth cycle chronology based on the deviations from trend of the CE which shows that there have been four cyclical slowdowns since 1986. Whereas GDP growth lacks cyclical movements and appears to be dominated by trend and irregular movements, in contrast to GDP, the CEI works well as a measure of cyclical dynamics and can contribute to the analysis of short-term fluctuations of Chinese economic activity relative to its long-term growth.