Do Existence Values for Cost Benefit Analysis Exist?

The use of the contingent valuation method to generate estimates of existence value for input to cost benefit analysis requires that individuals have utility functions defined over the relevant arguments. The validity of the assumption that the required utility functions generally exist has been questioned. It has been argued that some individuals will respond on the basis of lexicographic preference orderings. It has also been argued that some individuals do not consider that market, or individual willingness to pay, criteria are appropriate where existence value type issues are at stake. The paper considers survey evidence bearing upon these arguments. It is concluded that the evidence is consistent with the view that it is incorrect to proceed on the assumption that individuals generally satisfy the assumptions required for the existence of existence values for use in cost benefit analysis.     

Analysing wage differentials when workers maximize the return to human capital investment

The analysis of the determinants of differences in wages across workers has traditionally relied on the estimation of average earnings functions. In this article, we propose a new theoretical model where it is the workers who decide the amount they wish to invest in human capital, taking into account the costs of acquiring those skills, for the purpose of maximizing earnings. In this model, both human capital and marginal productivity are likely to be influenced by the individual’s (unobserved) characteristics such as ability or motivation, potentially giving rise to endogeneity problems. In this context, the empirical implementation of our theoretical model allows us, under certain assumptions, to obtain consistent estimates even under the assumption of endogeneity. We present an empirical application to the education sector using data from the Spanish Structure of Earnings Survey 2010. Our results show that females and workers in the private education sector face more difficulties in achieving their maximum potential wage.     

Repetitive risk aversion

We propose a reasonable condition, which we call repetitive risk aversion (RRA), to be imposed on any utility function to account for the observed data on the relationship between the degree of absolute risk aversion and wealth. We deduce this condition from the concept of the fear of ruin (Aumann and Kurz 1977) and show it to be equivalent to the behaviorally meaningful condition that the risk premium is increasing at a non-increasing rate with the size of the bet. We drive mixed risk aversion, which is known to be stronger than standard and thus proper risk aversion, from RRA. We present several economic applications of RRA to demonstrate that it delivers better comparative static results.I am thankful to Jacques Drèze and Louis Eeckhoudt for their comments. I greatly appreciate the comments of an anonymous reviewer of this journal which have resulted in substantial improvement to both the content and presentation of the paper. An earlier version of this paper was presented at seminars at Brown, CORE, Hopkins, HKUST, Yale, and IMS     

Does trade liberalization and its associated increased economic activity affect permanently the value and pattern of trade flows?

Despite a number of multi-country case studies based on a variety of analytical frameworks and numerous econometric studies using large cross-country data sets that analyse trade openness and its induced economic activities that alters both the volume and value of trade flows, there is still disagreement among economists concerning the nature of this relationship. In this article, we follow a rather unique approach by estimating the density functions of the observed trade flows and the density functions of trade flows generated by tariff removal using an intertemporal global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Our inquiry is whether or not the trade flows generated by global tariff elimination impact economies in the long-run and alter their historical underlying distributions. If the latter case prevails, it implies that the economies follow a different transitional path into a new steady-state equilibrium. The density functions, estimated parameters and higher moments of the observed trade flow distributions are distinctly different from the parameter estimates of the trade flows generated by the model. In this sense, trade-inducing economic activity as generated by tariff removal and captured by the neoclassical specification of the model is associated with trade flows along a different transitional path from the observed trade flows.     

制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

知识产权保护与文化创意产品进口

文化创意产业被誉为21世纪的“朝阳行业”,在过去的十年间,经历了极为快速的发展,而知识产权保护与文化创意产品又有着天然而不可分割的关系。文章从知识产权保护的角度研究中国文化创意产品贸易,对于我国文化创意产业发展具有一定的现实意义。文章首先梳理了知识产权保护与国际贸易关系的相关文献,并报告了中国文化创意产品贸易与知识产权保护水平的现状,在引力模型的基础上,运用了18个发展中国家从20个发达国家进口文化创意产品的贸易数据,研究了知识产权保护力度对文化创意产品进口额的影响。研究表明,随着发展中国家提高知识产权保护力度,文化创意产品进口额也出现了增加的趋势。此外,文章使用了GDP和IPR的滞后一期作为工具变量以控制内生性问题,同样也得到了较为稳健的结果。     

以外贸为主的外部冲击,竞争与区域经济增长

全球化对于相对封闭的国家和区域而言可视为一种外部冲击，这种冲击会对消费结构、市场、政府及宏观经济产生影响。这种冲击的必要性和可能的效应源于个体效用函数。基于微观假设的多重效应可以在宏观上得以映证。选取外贸及人口密度等指标对中国各省市的实证分析表明，外部冲击的强弱会对经济增长产生不同的影响，而这种冲击的内在机制在于竞争机制。     

国际贸易对碳减排协议的促进作用——理论框架及减排意愿的数值一般均衡情景模拟

全球碳减排谈判是具有外部性特征的多方合作博弈。文章首先构建一个单一商品无贸易多国模型,对各国的碳减排意愿进行刻画,利用相关数据对不同情景下的各国碳减排意愿进行数值一般均衡模拟;在此基础上,将国际贸易因素引入模型,重新对各国的减排意愿进行情景模拟。数值模拟结果表明:(1)经济规模越大,全球变暖持续的时间跨度越长,温度上升带来的效用损失越大,各国单方面减排意愿越强;(2)国际贸易的存在更有利于各国碳减排意愿的提高,因为各国通过减产实现减排的同时,其贸易条件得到改善,从而将减产带来的效用损失部分转嫁到其他各国;(3)当前,假借碳减排之名而抬头的新贸易保护主义不仅无法促进各国碳减排,反而将阻碍全球碳减排协议的达成。     

A class of multiattribute utility functions

A function u(z) is a utility function if u′(z) > 0. It is called risk averse if we also have u′′(z) < 0. Some authors, however, require that u ⁽ⁱ⁾(z) > 0 if i is odd and u ⁽ⁱ⁾(z) < 0 if i is even. The notion of a multiattribute utility function can be defined by requiring that it is increasing in each variable and concave as an s-variate function. A stronger condition, similar to the one in case of a univariate utility function, requires that, in addition, all partial derivatives of total order m should be positive if m is odd and negative if m is even. In this paper, we present a class of functions in analytic form such that each of them satisfies this stronger condition. We also give sharp lower and upper bounds for E[u(X ₁,... , X _s )] under moment information with respect to the joint probability distribution of the random variables X ₁,... , X _s assumed to be discrete and representing wealths. Partially supported by OTKA grants F-046309 and T-047340 in Hungary.     

Optimal Growth Models with Bounded or Unbounded Returns: A Unifying Approach

In this paper we propose a unifying approach to the study of optimal growth models with bounded or unbounded returns (above-below). Following our approach, we prove the existence of optimal solutions and show, without using the contraction method, that the value function is the unique solution to the Bellman equation for a particular class of functions. The value function can be obtained by the usual algorithm defined by the operator provided by the Bellman equation. Moreover, following our approach we obtain the recent results of F. Alvarez and N. Stokey (1998, J. Econ. Theory82, 167-189) as well as the well-known results. Journal of Economic Literature Classification numbers: C61, 041.     

Ancestral relatedness and visits between national leaders: Evidence from China†

This study explores the factors that affect visits between national leaders in the world, shedding light on their ancestral origins. We combine data on visits involving Chinese leaders from 1993 to 2013 with genetic distance that captures ethnic differences transmitted intergenerationally. Empirical analysis shows that there are more visits between Chinese leaders and leaders of countries that have smaller genetic distance to China. Furthermore, the impact of genetic distance is achieved primarily through trade and positioning of political relationships, which are proxies for economic and political exchanges, respectively. Our findings show that ancestral relatedness plays an important part in modern diplomatic activities.     

European financial crisis and bank productivity: evidence from Eastern European Countries

The paper examines the productivity levels of the largest banks operating in the Eastern European countries over the period of the ongoing European financial crisis. Specifically, the analysis covers the periods of U.S. subprime crisis, the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis. By adopting a fully nonparametric framework, it provides a probabilistic version of a directional input-oriented Malmquist productivity index alongside with its main decomposition. The results from the analysis suggest that banks have faced a deterioration of their productivity levels between the examined periods. It is evident that during the initiation of European sovereign debt crisis, the banks have weakened their ability to utilize efficiently their inputs of production and their ability to realize scale economies.     

Existence and optimality of oligopoly equilibria in linear exchange economies

Summary. We consider a linear exchange economy and its successive replicas. We study the notion of Cournot-Walras equilibrium in which the consumers use the quantities of commodities put on the market as strategic variables. We prove that, generically, if the number of replications is large enough but finite, the competitive behaviour is an oligopoly equilibrium. Then, under a mild condition, which may be interpreted in terms of market regulation and/or market activity, we show that any sequence of oligopoly equilibria of successive replica economies converges to the Walrasian outcome and furthermore that every oligopoly equilibrium of large, but finite, replica is Pareto optimal. Consequently, under the same assumptions on the fundamentals of the economy, one has an asymptotic result on the convergence of oligopoly equilibria to the Walras equilibrium together with a generic existence result for the Cournot-Walras. Received: June 20, 2002; revised version: November 20, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" Part of this paper was written while the second author was visiting the Universidad de Vigo. The support of the department of mathematics is gratefully acknowledged. Correspondence to: J.M. Bonnisseau     

Using the cost function to generate Marshallian demand systems

Limited data means that prior structure is needed when working with large demand systems. The cost function is a convenient vehicle for generating demand systems incorporating such structure. While the cost function directly yields Hicksian demand functions they will not usually have an explicit representation as Marshallian demand equations i.e. in terms of the observable variables. With fast hardware and modern software, however, this need not hinder the estimation of the (implied) Marshallian demand equations. This paper develops the formal theory for using cost functions in this context, and reports on initial trials on the operational feasibility of the method. First version received: September 1997/final version accepted: July 1999     

Diversification versus optimality: is there really a diversification puzzle?

In this paper, we provide a general valuation of the diversification attitude of investors. First, we empirically examine the diversification of mean-variance optimal choices in the US stock market during the 11-year period 2003–2013. We then analyze the diversification problem from the perspective of risk-averse investors and risk-seeking investors. Second, we prove that investors’ optimal choices will be similar if their utility functions are not too distant, independent of their tolerance (or aversion) to risk. Finally, we discuss investors’ attitude towards diversification when the choices available to investors depend on several parameters.     

国家文化距离对中国进出口贸易影响的区域差异

根据文化簇群理论,将31个与中国贸易往来密切的样本国家(地区)分成六个不同的文化簇群,采用贸易引力模型,实证研究1995—2011年间中国与不同簇群内各国间文化距离之差对中国与它们进出口贸易的影响。结果表明:中国与不同簇群内各国间的文化距离对中国与它们的进出口贸易的影响存在差异,总体而言,中国对不同簇群内各国的出口比进口更容易受到文化距离的影响;中国与不同簇群内各国间各文化维度上的距离对中国进出口贸易的影响存在簇群差异,且影响方向不同。根据上述结论,将我国贸易伙伴国进一步细分为:不敏感型、出口敏感型、进口敏感型和双向敏感型,进而为我国新时期对外贸易发展提供有益的决策支持和启示。     

Withstanding financial crises: would trade partners help or hurt?

This article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks. Spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention. To this end, we estimate a modify auto-regressive process and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one’s country growth on its trade-weighted partners growth. We run estimations on a set of currency collapses, banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011. The trade-weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries, while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse. Trade-based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries, in those that liberalize their financial account. It contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises.