On the characterization of excess demand functions

Summary. In this paper, we give the necessary and sufficient conditions that characterize the individual excess demand function when it depends smoothly on prices and endowments. A given function is an excess demand function if and only if it satisfies, in addition to Walras law and zero homogeneity in prices, a set of first order partial differential equations, its substitution matrix is symmetric and negative semidefinite. Moreover, we show that these conditions are equivalent to the symmetry and negative semidefiniteness of Slutsky matrix, Walras law and zero homogeneity of Marshallian demand functions.Received: 25 November 2002, Revised: 11 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D11.Marwan Aloqeili: I would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

Specifying differential cyclical response in economic time series: Capacity utilization and demand for imports

This paper begins with a discussion of several techniques currently employed to specify non-reversible relationships and shows that many of the more popular techniques lead to biased slope and intercept estimates when the data have a natural order and the purpose is to estimate differential response over a series of cycles. Next a general specification of a non-reversible relationships is proposed. This variable partitioning procedure has two advantages over currently employed techniques: (1) It allows unbiased estimation of slope and intercept parameters; (2) It implies a set of joint hypotheses which can be tested to deduce the appropriate adjustment path. The suggested procedure is then applied to an investigation of the effect of capacity utilization on US import demand. Employing a model posited by Gregory [5] but correcting his inappropriate specification of capacity utilization's ratchet effect, we find a significant, non-reversible relationship between capacity utilization and import demand. This result is precisely the opposite of that originally inferred by Gregory. We conclude that inappropriate specification of non-reversible relationships can lead to incorrect forecasts and policy decisions and that these problems can be corrected if our specification procedure is employed.     

Determinants of the demand for imports of Venezuela

In this study we use disaggregated annual data to estimate real income and relative price elasticities of demand for imports of Venezuela. After comparing our estimates with those of previous studies, we conclude that (1) Venezuela has made progress in developing domestic substitutes for imports, and (2) the degree of ‘openness’ in Venezuela increased after 1961. We also find evidence that during the period 1974–1979, the increase in the market value of Venezuela's oil reserves led to an increase in all categories of imports.     

The equilibrium manifold keeps the memory of individual demand functions

Summary. It is shown that the property that the equilibrium manifold keeps the memory of the individual demand functions holds true if every individual demand function satisfies the following three properties: 1) It is a function of commodity prices and of consumers income; 2) Consumption belongs to the nonnegative orthant of the commodity space; 3) Walras law. Neither differentiability nor continuity are necessary. In addition, the demand functions do not have to be utility maximizing subject to budget constraints.Received: 2 September 2003, Revised: 26 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D51.A preliminary version of this paper was released in October 1999 under the title Deriving individual demand functions from the equilibrium manifold. I wish to thank an anonymous referee for thoughtful comments.     

Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period

What precisely were the causes and consequences of the trade wars in the 1930s? Were there perhaps deeper forces at work in reorienting global trade prior to the outbreak of World War II? And what lessons may this particular historical episode provide for the present day? To answer these questions, we distinguish between long‐run secular trends in the period from 1920 to 1939 related to the formation of trade blocs and short‐run disruptions associated with the trade wars of the 1930s. We argue that the trade wars mainly served to intensify pre‐existing efforts toward the formation of trade blocs which dated from at least 1920. More speculatively, we argue that the trade wars of the present day may serve a similar purpose as those in the 1930s, that is, the intensification of China‐ and US‐centric trade blocs.     

Mathematical utility theory and the representability of demand by continuous homogeneous functions

The resort to utility-theoretical issues will permit us to propose a constructive procedure for deriving a homogeneous of degree one continuous function that gives raise to a primitive demand function under suitably mild conditions. This constitutes the first self-contained and elementary proof of a necessary and sufficient condition for an integrability problem to have a solution by continuous (subjective utility) functions.The work of José C. R. Alcantud has been supported by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-0304/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project SA098A05. Carlos R. Palmero acknowledges financial support by FEDER and Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia under the Research Project SEJ2005-08709/ECON, and by Consejería de Educación (Junta de Castilla y León) under the Research Project VA017B05.     

试论国内区际贸易与对外贸易利益的关系

对外贸易的发展理应建立在国内区际贸易充分开展的基础上。国内区际贸易的开展对对外贸易利益的取得具有重要的意义。我国改革开放过程中的国内市场分割现象,使得国内区际贸易滞后于对外贸易快速发展,并制约了对外贸易利益最大化的实现。本文的政策结论是通过加快改革逐步实现国内经济市场化和一体化以提高外贸利益。     

Using the cost function to generate Marshallian demand systems

Limited data means that prior structure is needed when working with large demand systems. The cost function is a convenient vehicle for generating demand systems incorporating such structure. While the cost function directly yields Hicksian demand functions they will not usually have an explicit representation as Marshallian demand equations i.e. in terms of the observable variables. With fast hardware and modern software, however, this need not hinder the estimation of the (implied) Marshallian demand equations. This paper develops the formal theory for using cost functions in this context, and reports on initial trials on the operational feasibility of the method. First version received: September 1997/final version accepted: July 1999     

知识产权保护与文化创意产品进口

文化创意产业被誉为21世纪的“朝阳行业”,在过去的十年间,经历了极为快速的发展,而知识产权保护与文化创意产品又有着天然而不可分割的关系。文章从知识产权保护的角度研究中国文化创意产品贸易,对于我国文化创意产业发展具有一定的现实意义。文章首先梳理了知识产权保护与国际贸易关系的相关文献,并报告了中国文化创意产品贸易与知识产权保护水平的现状,在引力模型的基础上,运用了18个发展中国家从20个发达国家进口文化创意产品的贸易数据,研究了知识产权保护力度对文化创意产品进口额的影响。研究表明,随着发展中国家提高知识产权保护力度,文化创意产品进口额也出现了增加的趋势。此外,文章使用了GDP和IPR的滞后一期作为工具变量以控制内生性问题,同样也得到了较为稳健的结果。     

中美贸易顺差与我国加工贸易产业转型升级

笔者运用协整分析的方法,对中美贸易顺差及其影响因素之间的长期关系进行了分析.实证结果表明,中美贸易顺差主要来自于美国及东亚诸国对华产业转移所导致的产业内贸易,其实质是我国国内加工贸易产业结构不合理.由此引发了对加工贸易产业结构优化的思考.     

中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易发展的思考

服务贸易是中国—东盟自由贸易区发展的一项重要内容,中国和东盟各国应在加快服务贸易合作的基础上,通过保障服务贸易良好发展的一系列协议,采取不同策略逐步发展服务贸易,消除服务贸易中产生的摩擦,以实现中国—东盟自由贸易区服务贸易的快速发展。     

中加贸易互补性及贸易潜力探析

近些年来,中国和加拿大双边贸易得到较快发展。笔者利用1998年～2007年的时间序列数据,使用贸易结合度、贸易竞争优势指数、贸易互补性指数和经常市场份额模型等一系列指标,对中国与加拿大之间的贸易互补性和贸易潜力进行全面的实证分析。研究表明:中国和加拿大的贸易结合度不断提高,两国之间的贸易具有很强的互补性,而且是一种稳定而持久的互补关系。同时,中国对加拿大出口增长贡献最大的是竞争提升效应,加拿大对中国出口增长贡献最大的是市场扩大效应,两国之间存在着巨大的贸易潜力。     

标准化对中国出口贸易的影响效应——基于局部均衡的分析

由于技术差距的存在,中国出口贸易产品的技术标准普遍低于美、日、欧等发达国家,因此,标准化对中国出口贸易的影响显著。从局部均衡的角度分析短期和长期的不同影响效应发现：在短期内,标准化对中国的出口贸易效应主要是负面的,表现为贸易限制效应、贸易转移效应和贸易条件效应;而在长期情况下,如果企业能够积极改进,不断创新,那么标准化对中国的贸易会产生积极的促进效应,贸易量会增加,同时贸易条件也会得到改善。     

Short-Term and Long-Term Margins of International Trade: Evidence from the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement

We investigate the impact of the Canada-Chile Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) on Canadian exports to Chile, particularly the dynamic effects of the agreement on extensive and intensive margins of trade. Consistent with the literature, we find that the extensive margin effects occurred later than the intensive margin effects and became more prominent in the long-term. Surprisingly, the intensive margin effects died off in the long-term. A theoretical model is constructed to show that our results can arise in a standard setting of intra-industry trade.     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

中日蔬菜贸易流量与贸易前景——基于引力模型的研究

中国是世界第一蔬菜生产和出口大国。日本作为中国蔬菜出口的重要市场之一,对中国蔬菜产业的发展影响重大。近些年来,由于中国蔬菜在生产、出口方面的整体竞争力不高、信息渠道不畅,加之日本蔬菜市场瞬息万变、市场准入门槛不断提高等因素,中国蔬菜产业面临着十分严峻的竞争态势。为促进中日两国蔬菜出口贸易的健康发展,应积极实施蔬菜标准化工程,推进中国标准向国际通用标准靠拢;强化公共信息的服务与交流,注重政府高层的沟通和政治博弈;密切关注中国蔬菜产品在日本市场的技术贸易壁垒动态,建立和完善预警机制。     

贸易自由化、外商直接投资与出口贸易地区差异

文章检验了贸易自由化、外商直接投资流入与出口贸易地区差异的关系。通过构建3×2×2空间一般均衡模型和使用2002-2008年全国28个省份面板数据,研究发现外商直接投资与地区出口贸易之间关系不确定,外商直接投资流入与贸易自由化共同造成出口贸易地区间差异。此外,中国与东盟贸易自由区更利于内陆地区出口贸易,劳动力禀赋对出口没有显著影响,物质资本和人力资本禀赋对出口具有正向影响,人民币升值会促进而非抑制出口贸易。     

国家文化距离对中国进出口贸易影响的区域差异

根据文化簇群理论,将31个与中国贸易往来密切的样本国家(地区)分成六个不同的文化簇群,采用贸易引力模型,实证研究1995—2011年间中国与不同簇群内各国间文化距离之差对中国与它们进出口贸易的影响。结果表明:中国与不同簇群内各国间的文化距离对中国与它们的进出口贸易的影响存在差异,总体而言,中国对不同簇群内各国的出口比进口更容易受到文化距离的影响;中国与不同簇群内各国间各文化维度上的距离对中国进出口贸易的影响存在簇群差异,且影响方向不同。根据上述结论,将我国贸易伙伴国进一步细分为:不敏感型、出口敏感型、进口敏感型和双向敏感型,进而为我国新时期对外贸易发展提供有益的决策支持和启示。     

Trade imbalance and the endogenous optimal tariff

Endogenous tariff literatures reveal empirically that trade imbalance is negatively related with import tariff, this article gives a theoretical evidence and explanation to support this finding with the methodology of multi-country numerical general equilibrium modelling and simulation. We explore how optimal tariff changes after trade imbalance is introduced, and find that optimal tariffs decrease substantially, either for surplus or deficit countries, when imbalance is considered. Specifically, when the imbalance is modelled in endogenous monetary and inside-money structures, the optimal tariffs decrease by 26% globally on average. Our results suggest that the deepening trade imbalance is beneficial to the global trade liberalization due to its driving tariffs down.