CASELOAD IMPACTS OF WELFARE REFORM

A welfare reform demonstration program designed to reduce Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) recidivism through increased employment and training services resulted in significantly higher short-term caseload growth. Demonstration sites attracted proportionally more households onto assistance early in the demonstration than did comparison sites. These entrants tended to have more extensive previous employment histories. This result suggests that the demonstration attracted individuals who previously qualified for AFDC but did not apply for benefits and/or individuals who reduced their employment to qualify for AFDC. Exits from AFDC also were delayed under the demonstration, suggesting that the more intensive services provided through the demonstration required more time to complete. Finally, certain groups—nonwhites and those with language problems, for example—apparently avoided the demonstration by not migrating into demonstration sites or by migrating out of demonstration sites. These results have important implications for the likely costs of state welfare reform efforts under the Family Support Act of 1988 .     

A DECADE OF DECLINING WELFARE PARTICIPATION: SORTING OUT THE CAUSES

Since the late 1970s, the proportion of all single-parent families receiving benefits from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program has been declining. This is reversing an earlier two-decade trend. This paper uses data from the Current Population Survey so as to investigate the reasons for the decline. The analysis reveals that for the years prior to 1981, the decline has resulted both from an erosion in real AFDC guarantee levels–caused by high rates of inflation–and from changes in demographic conditions. For the years subsequent to 1981, the decline has resulted from an increase in effective AFDC benefit reduction rates caused by the Omnibus Reconciliation Act of 1981. Somewhat offsetting the participation rate decline were falling real child support collections and a rising unemployment rate.     

Locational choice of AFDC recipients within California: a conditional logit analysis

This paper examines factors that influence migration of AFDC recipients within California. A county level conditional logit model is used to analyze the impact of cost adjusted benefits on intrastate moves during recipients’ first year of welfare participation. Costs of living, particularly housing costs, differ considerably across counties of California, yet the welfare benefit is set at the state level. This creates the potential for variation in the purchasing power of the welfare benefit if a family chooses to move. Variation in cost of living is shown to have a significant effect on migration patterns of AFDC recipients. Estimates suggest that a $150 decrease in fair market rent results in 15% more migration to the county. Recipients’ migration is more responsive to cost of living than migration of the general population.     

Importing the Poor: Welfare Magnetism and Cross-Border Welfare Migration

I test for welfare-induced migration by comparing AFDC participation in border counties to interior counties in the same state. If migration costs are lower for border county residents, border counties on the high-benefit side of a state border should have higher welfare participation relative to the state's interior counties. Border counties on the low-benefit side should have lower welfare participation relative to the state's interior counties. The results obtained using county-level data from 1970-90 indicate that having a neighbor with benefits that are $100 lower increases AFDC expenditures in border counties by 4.0-6.8 percent relative to interior counties.     

The effects of grants-in-aid on state and local expenditures: The case of AFDC

This paper develops econometric methods to estimate the effect of the piecewise-linear budget constraints created by grant formulas in which the subsidy rate is not constant over expenditures (e.g. closed-end grants). The methods are applied to the AFDC program. The results show that, because of the kinked nature of the grant formula, (1) the present federal formula actually increases cross-state inequality in AFDC benefits, (2) several subsidy rates in the formula actually reduce benefits, and (3) the so-called ‘flypaper’ effect disappears.     

Household formation by the young in the United States

A model of household formation by the young is specified and estimated. It was found that the headship rate for the young in the United States depends on income, the cost of housing, the number of families receiving AFDC payments, the age at first marriage for females and for males, and the percentage of males enrolled in college. Household formation by the young is much more sensitive to changes in income and the price of housing than household formation by the entire adult population. The estimated results are used to examine the change in the headship rate from 1961 to 1979 and from 1979 to 1987.     

Household formation by the young in the United States

"A model of household formation by the young is specified and estimated. It was found that the headship rate for the young in the United States depends on income, the cost of housing, the number of families receiving AFDC payments, the age at first marriage for females and for males, and the percentage of males enrolled in college. Household formation by the young is much more sensitive to changes in income and the price of housing than household formation by the entire adult population. The estimated results are used to examine the change in the headship rate from 1961 to 1979 and from 1979 to 1987."     

Ethnic Differences in the Incidence and Determinants of Employer-funded Training in Britain

Non-white full-time employees were offered, and undertook, less training than whites in Britain in 1993–4, according to data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey. Estimates of the determinants of training outcomes and training offers show a marked consistency across white and non-white, male and female, employees. Over 90% of the average predicted training outcome differential, and 50%–60% of the difference in mean predicted training offers, cannot be explained by differences in observable characteristics between white and non-white employees. These findings suggest that equal opportunities legislation has been unsuccessful in eliminating unequal access to employer-funded training in Britain.     

Is racial salary discrimination disappearing in the NBA? evidence from data during 1985–2015

This study re-examines the racial salary gap of National Basketball Association players by constructing a long unbalanced panel covering the 1985–1986 to 2015–2016 seasons. Contrary to the results of previous studies, we find that non-white players are paid equally to white players with similar characteristics in the 1980s and 1990s, but that white players started to be paid about 20% more than non-white players in the last 10 years. Our results are robust to all specification checks, such as quantile regressions, controlling sample selection, different contract types, and player nationality. We find that neither employer preference nor income gap of white and black residents explains this increasing salary gap.     

Catholic Economic Association Minutes of the Executive Council Meeting May 13, 1961

This paper applies thematic analysis to survey data obtained from a sample of AFDC recipients to investigate the complexities of single-parent decision-making in low-income households. A basic needs budget is developed to determine the adequacy of women's wages to provide for children's minimal material needs. In surveys, parents indicate their primary goal is the well-being of the children, determined by the adequacy of several types of resources, which we categorize into four groups: 1) material resources, 2) caring resources, 3) community resources, and 4) the macro-level environment. Using this framework, we develop a schematic model of single-parent decision-making, incorporating the assumption that children's level of need and well-being are determined not only by the cost and availability of material resources but also by psychological factors such as gender conflicts, neighborhood safety, as well as parents' time and social networks that provide caring labor.     

Delegating Power to Bureaucracies: Evidence from the States

Empirical analysis has lagged behind theoretical advancementin the study of legislative delegation of power to bureaucracies.This article analyzes why state legislatures delegated advisoryand policy-forming powers to bureaucracies for the Aid to Familieswith Dependent Children (AFDC) program from 1935 through 1996.The analysis supports various theories of bureaucratic discretion,while painting a complex political picture of delegation decisions.Legislators rely on bureaucrats to resolve uncertainty, especiallywhen internal legislative information is scarce. Contrary torecent wisdom, however, delegation is not found to be associatedwith the general condition of unified government. Rather, delegationoccurs under both divided and unified government, but the procedureschosen and appointment powers granted vary under these two conditions.     

Welfare Payments and the Spread of HIV in the United States

Clarke and Strauss (1998), among others, have determined that the magnitude of financial transfers to unwed mothers is positively related to out-of-wedlock fertility rates. Increases in fertility rates must be accompanied by increases in unprotected sex, and unprotected sex allows for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. We hypothesize that states with relatively greater welfare payments under the old Aid to Families with Dependant Children (AFDC) program are associated with higher rates of heterosexually contracted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Using data for 26 reporting states from 1993 to 1996, our weighted instrumental variables estimates with clustered standard errors are consistent with our hypothesis. (JEL D1 , I38 )     

Personalist Economics: Moral Convictions,Economic Realities,And Social Action

We examine the relationship between the administrative enforcement of environmental regulation, ethnic heterogeneity, and other community characteristics in New Jersey and New York. We find that the percentage of non-white population in a community is positively related with administrative penalties imposed on violators. However, penalties are lower in more ethnically diverse communities. This result may be due to the fact that these communities are less likely to coordinate to create solidarity across ethnic groups and demand stronger enforcement.     

The effect of commute time on racial earnings inequality: a case study of the Houston metropolitan statistical area

Data from the United States Census confirm a substantial increase in the racial earnings gap between 1980 and 1990. This paper examines data on whites and non-white wage and salary incomes in Houston TX for 1980 and 1990. Data on time travelled to work is used to simulate what would be the impact of shorter commute times on earnings inequality. The central finding is that a reduction in travel time from residence to work would cause a very small reduction in racial earnings and income inequality. This suggests that advances in urban transportation policy alone are not sufficient to solve the problem of racial earnings inequality.     

The earnings of male immigrants in England: evidence from the quarterly LFS

"In this paper we estimate earnings functions for native born and foreign born white and non-white males in the English labour market, using data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey.... Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between native born and foreign born males when investigating the labour market experience of ethnic minorities. Furthermore, the earnings performance amongst white immigrants varies considerably."     

Why is the rate of single-parenthood lower in Canada than in the U.S.? A dynamic equilibrium analysis of welfare policies

Abstract .  A critical question in the design of welfare policies is whether to target aid according to household composition, as was done in the U.S. under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, or to rely exclusively on means-testing, as in Canada. Restricting aid to single mothers, for instance, has the potential to distort behaviour along three demographic margins: marriage, fertility, and divorce. We contrast the Canadian and the U.S. policies within an equilibrium model of household formation and human capital investment on children. Policy differences we consider are eligibility, dependence of transfers on the number of children, and generosity of transfers. Our simulations indicate that the policy differences can account for the higher rate of single-parenthood in the U.S. They also show that Canadian welfare policy is more effective for fostering human capital accumulation among children from poor families. Interestingly, a majority of agents in our benchmark economy prefers a welfare system that targets single mothers (as the U.S. system does), yet (unlike the U.S. system) does not make transfers dependent on the number of children.     

POVERTY, NON-WHITE POVERTY, AND THE SEN INDEX

This paper investigates the impact of economic growth, and more specifically robust economic growth along with other macroeconomic determinants, on poverty levels using both the U.S. official measure of poverty and an estimated time series of Sen indices of poverty. The results reveal that the period of robust economic expansion that the U.S. economy experienced during the 1990s did not have a significant impact on poverty using either measure. In addition, we find that the impact of growth and other macro controls is dramatically different when a subset of the poverty population, namely non-white poverty, is investigated. The percentage of households headed by women is shown to be a significant factor in examining poverty for this subgroup.     

ECONOMIC ORIGINS OF APARTHEID

South African apartheid is a social system arising from the economic conflict of competitive interest groups. During the past four centuries, this struggle has not been linear: Changing economic and demographic conditions have tended to make white and non-white subclasses net complementary factors at certain times and net substitute factors at others. Moreover, such cross-elasticities in production are not clearly delineated along racial lines. For example, the synergy of white capital and black labor formed the essential social "evil" which apartheid, promoted by white labor and farm interests, was created to expunge. Hence, isolating apartheid via international sanctions is inherently problematic. The imposition of apartheid itself was accompanied by extensive South African-imposed trade barriers.     

Do non-citizens affect U.S. Congressional elections?

U.S. citizens against immigration argue that immigrants commit voter fraud and skew election outcomes towards progressive candidates. These arguments have increased in number and severity since the Supreme Court ruled in 2013 that states cannot require photo identification from voters. We examine whether the size of the non-citizen population is related to election outcomes. Previous research indicates that non-citizens sway elections in favour of progressive candidates but only in elections where the victory margin is small. We find no evidence of a relationship between non-citizens and vote outcomes. We find evidence that the percent of the population that is non-white is positively related to percent of votes cast for democratic candidates.     

A Picture of Male and Female Unemployment among Britain's Ethnic Minorities

Using a sample of around one million observations, formed by combining two micro datasets from the 1991 Census of Population, the paper explores male and female unemployment differences across Britain's ethnic minorities. The large sample size allows a detailed multivariate analysis of females for the first time. Unemployment differences are not simply the result of characteristic differences or discrimination by the white majority. The empirical work shows that there are equally wide discrepancies in female unemployment rates, compared with males, between the white majority and the non-white ethnic minorities. Of particular interest is the comparison between UK born and foreign born ethnic minorities. Unemployment rates among the former tend to be considerably higher, but this is accounted for by characteristic differences. Thus there is no evidence that the UK born are doing worse, as the raw data suggest, but they do not seem to be becoming better assimilated either.