The disaggregated demand for labour in Greek industry

This paper employs the Granger test to examine the causal relationship between growth in the money supply and inflation for the US over the period 1959 to 1986. Alternative procedures, including both statistical search and non–statistical ad hoc methods, are utilized to determine the order of the bivariate distributed lag models used in implementing the test. In general, the results show feedback between movements in the money supply and price level changes. Unlike the results of Thornton and Batten (1985), one of the ad hoc methods for lag–length determination is found to perform somewhat better than the statistical search methods in correctly assessing the causal relationships involving money growth and inflation.     

A dynamic heterogeneous labour demand model for German manufacturing

There is currently general agreement amongst economists that the discount rate to compute the present value of benefits and costs in the economic evaluation of public policies is defined according to the social time preference approach. However, whether this rate has to be used for the discount of non-monetary health consequences is a question for which there is no satisfactory reply. In this paper, it is argued that such a reply rests on the estimation of the relationship between the individual time preference for health and money in the contexts of private and social choice. In support of this argument an empirical analysis has been carried out in which the individuals making-up a representative sample of the population of Zaragoza (Spain) have been faced with a series of hypothetical inter-temporal choices. Their replies have implicitly revealed their temporal preference rates and have led to the conclusion that health consequences are discounted at a higher rate than monetary consequences. This would appear to be contrary to the standard practice applied in the economic valuation of health programmes.     

Working time and labour demand in Finnish manufacturing: short-run and long-run effects

The effect of changes in the standard working time on employment and average hours is studied using pooled data from five Finnish manufacturing industries. The model is an error correction model, which makes it possible to separate short-run, reductions in standard hours increase employment. There is evidence that the long run effect of working time on employment has changed over time. In the 1970s reductions in hours have had positive long-run employment effects, but in the 1980s the positive short-run impact has been neutralized in the long run. Changes in standard hours do not influence the utilization rate of labour, which is defined as the ratio of overtime hours to standard hours. In the short run, the utilization rate is influenced by output changes.     

A forecasting model of the Sri Lankan economy

A forecasting model of the Sri Lankan economy is developed and estimated. Both the within and post-sample tracking performances of the model are evaluated. The estimated structure is used to simulate the effects of selected exogenous shocks. The experimental results reveal that devaluation and terms of trade deterioration have contrasting implications for current account and budget deficit; and that world income growth and world inflation have opposite impacts on economic growth.     

Adjustment costs and time-to-build in factor demand in the U.S. manufacturing industry

In order to explain cyclical behavior of factor demand, the static neoclassical model of the firm has been extended to include either adjustment costs (e.g. Lucas (1967)) or time-to-build considerations as in Kydland and Prescott (1982). This paper presents an intertemporal factor demand model which accounts for adjustment costs and gestation lags. The closed form solution of the model is a highly restricted vector ARMA-process that is estimated using quarterly data for the manufacturing industry in the U.S., 1960–1988. The main conclusion is that both sources of dynamics of factor demand are identifiable and found to be empirically of importance.     

On the profitability of commercial banks: the Sri Lankan case

This study determines the factors affecting the profitability of licensed commercial banks (LCBs) in Sri Lanka, including the effect of the prolonged conflict which ended in 2009. Using an error correction model together with data for the period 2006–2014 of 10 major LCBs, the results reveal that, in the short run, capital and liquidity have a positive effect on bank profitability and default loans, interest margin (IM), operating cost, and interest rates (IRs) have a negative effect. In the long run, bank profitability is significantly impacted by default loans, IM, real GDP, inflation, IRs, capital, operating cost, and conflict. The ending of the prolonged conflict has significantly contributed to improved bank performance.     

Offshoring, labour market institutions and the elasticity of labour demand

This paper analyses the evolution of the elasticity of labour demand and the possible role of offshoring therein using industry-level data for a large number of OECD countries. The first main finding is that the wage elasticity of labour demand has increased substantially since 1980, although some of this increase may reflect a trend increase in the speed of adjustment rather than an increase in the long-run wage elasticity. The evidence on the potential contribution of offshoring to raising labour demand elasticity is mixed. No association is found between increases in offshoring and demand elasticity during the second half of the 1990s, but there is a significant cross-sectional association between higher average offshoring intensity during this period and higher demand elasticity. We also find some evidence that strict employment protection legislation weakens the cross-sectional association between offshoring and higher labour demand elasticity, suggesting that the relationship between offshoring and the labour demand elasticity may depend on the national institutional environment.     

Regulatory reform and labour earnings in Portuguese banking

This study examines changes in union contracts and wage structure during and after the introduction of regulatory reforms (deregulation and privatisation) in the Portuguese banking sector. The main finding is that, despite a relative wage erosion detected in the contract data, banking workers were able to enjoy an increasing wage premium in the period 1985–2000, probably reflecting the increasing profitability of the industry and the rise in labour productivity. The evidence also shows that some specific groups benefited relatively more than others: the least skilled and educated workforce and male workers gained more from the regulatory reforms. However, this unequal sharing of the wage premium did not raise wage inequality across ownership groups in the industry. I thank Mark Stewart, Odd Rune Straume, Ian Walker and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. I am indebted to the Ministério do Trabalho e da Solidariedade for allowing the availability of data from Quadros de Pessoal. Financial support was provided by the Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia under the grant BD/SFRH/2000/1291.     

Competitive manufacturing with fluctuating demand and diverse technology: Mathematical proofs and illuminations on industry output-flexibility

I present an original model of competitive manufacturing with fluctuating demand and diverse technology with mathematical proofs. I discuss Aranoff's output-flexibility indicator, E(AC)-LRMC. I use the model to compute Aranoff's output-flexibility indicator to measure industry output-flexibility. I argue that a measure of industry output-flexibility is β_L(Q₂ − Q₁)/E(Q) I tie the demand-side discussion with the cost-side and show the degree of industry output-flexibility that will emerge under welfare and profit-maximizing pricing rules. I perform comparative statics of changes in technology, of demand, and of frequency of the high-peak state.     

The role of labour demand elasticities in tax incidence analysis with heterogeneous labour

Whether labour bears full burden of household level income and consumption taxes ultimately depends on the degree of substitutability among different types of labour in production. We find more variation in incidence patterns across households with less than perfectly substitutable heterogeneous labour than with perfectly substitutable homogeneous labour in production. This finding is based on results obtained from homogeneous and heterogeneous labour general equilibrium tax models calibrated to decile level income and consumption distribution data of UK households for the year 1994. We use labour supply elasticities implied by the substitution elasticity in households' utility functions and derive labour demand elasticities from the substitution elasticity in the production function. First version received: March 1998/Final version received: April 1999     

Employment security and the demand for labour in Europe

This paper analyses the impact of employment security on labour demand. The approach taken is to estimate a dynamic labour demand function that allows for the effect of changes in a measure of employment security derived from surveys of employers. The estimation uses panel data on employment (both in terms of the total number of employees and total hours worked) for seven European countries for the period 1981–1994. The results suggest that employment security can have significant effects in slowing down the dynamic adjustment of labour demand. The paper also finds some (less robust) evidence that employment security can increase the long run level of labour demand in terms of total hours, but not the number of persons employed.     

Married women's labor supply and economic development: Evidence from Sri Lankan household data

Women's labor supply in Sri Lanka has increased steadily since the early 1990s following economic reforms, but remains well below the level predicted by national income, a feature shared by a number of Asian and Latin American countries that have undergone similar reforms and economic growth. To understand the microeconomic determinants of women's work in Sri Lanka's growing economy, this paper estimates a binary‐choice model of married women's labor supply using household survey data spanning a 23‐year period. Decomposition and cohort analysis reveal that women have been drawn into the workforce through falling fertility rates, rising tertiary education, and declining income effects among younger generations, but other factors have undermined this positive trend. Educational attainment reduces married women's labor supply except at the tertiary level, consistent with social stigmas associated with married women in non‐white‐collar employment. The strict sectoral segregation of married women by education level supports this hypothesis. In addition, growth has been concentrated in low‐skilled sectors with self‐employment more prevalent, reducing employment prospects of educated women and prompting their labor force withdrawal. This suggests it is the structure of economic development, rather than speed, that matters for women's labor force activity.     

The demand for skills and labour costs in partner countries

We analyse the consequences of trade integration in Europe (1995–2005) detecting how the labour costs in partner countries affect the domestic demand for high‐ and low‐skilled labour in ‘Old’ (EU‐15) and five ‘New’ EU member states. In general, independently of the skill level of workers, the results suggest complementarity between domestic and foreign labour. However, when we take into account the typology of sectors, the demand for the high skilled in low skill intensive sectors in ‘New’ EU members is boosted by the increase of the average labour cost in ‘Old’ EU members. Thus in low skill intensive sectors, the high skilled in ‘New’ member countries can substitute for employment in EU‐15 countries.     

The optimality and overuse of labour in Estonian manufacturing enterprises*

Transition economies need labour market flexibility for successful restructuring and reallocation of the labour force, and for coping with the requirements of the European Monetary Union. In this paper we apply a novel approach to the issue of labour market flexibility in transition countries by studying the optimality and efficiency of labour usage in Estonian manufacturing enterprises. We employ a dynamic model in which both the long‐run optimal level of employment and the speed at which actual employment is adjusted to the optimal are modelled as functions of several variables. Firm‐level panel data of 1995–99 were used. The results showed that in the long run, employment responds most strongly to wages, followed by value added and capital stock. The speed of adjustment, labour use optimality and efficiency all show much greater variations over firms than over time. In the course of time, both labour‐saving technical change and an increase in the efficiency of labour usage occur. On average, there is shortage of labour compared to firms’ own optimal level, along with overuse of labour compared to best‐practice technology. Capital seems to be a binding constraint on the development of employment in the Estonian labour market.