Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques

There has accumulated strong evidence in the literature that market beta (β) is time varying. This paper contributes to the literature by studying how to best model the time varying beta for REITs. We include several commonly used methods and evaluate their performances in terms of in-sample beta estimates and out-of-sample beta forecasts. We apply these methods to U.S. equity REITs. Our results overwhelmingly suggest that the state space model is the best performer. Such a conclusion is supported by different evaluation criteria and robust to different sample splitting. Our findings have direct financial implications. The forecasted betas (preferably through the state space model) can be used in many applications such as estimating the cost of capital for the purpose of capital budgeting involving REITs, identifying equity REIT mispricing, evaluating the performance of managed REIT portfolios, etc.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF BETAS IN PRESENCE OF NONTRADED ASSETS

This study considers a capital assets pricing model (CAPM) in an incomplete financial market wherein not all risky assets are traded and the risk from non‐traded assets is not orthogonal to that of the existing or traded assets. The model shows the extent of the divergence of the CAPM betas (true betas) from the traditional CAPM betas (perceived betas) in market equilibrium conditions in an incomplete market. Specifically, it implies that the more incomplete a financial market is, the wider is the discrepancy between the true and perceived betas, and the distribution of the perceived betas tends to centre more around 1 in an incomplete market than that of true betas. Empirical evidence in various settings support these results.     

A generalization of modern production theory

This paper analyses the relationship between inflation and equity returns in Australia over the period January 1974 to March 1996. Analysis is based on monthly and quarterly data, using value weighted equity indices at both the aggregate market and industry level. Three price indices, the consumer price index (CPI) (quarterly) and the manufactured materials used index (MMU) and the manufacturing articles produced index (MAP) (both monthly and quarterly) are used to measure inflation. Results provide little evidence of the statistically significant negative relationship observed in the US for the full study period. Analysis is also conducted on three subperiods, ‘monetary targeting’ (July 1976–January 1985), ‘checklist approach’ (February 1985–December 1989) and anti-inflation (January 1990–March 1996). At the market level the anti-inflation subperiod does provide some evidence of a negative relationship between inflation and equity returns though statistical significance is not apparent with quarterly time series. The impact of expected inflation on industry returns varies considerably. Consistent with the overall market analysis, the incidence of negative expected inflation betas increases in the latter anti-inflation subperiod. Finally, changes in Government inflation policy appear to have greatest impact on industrial company expected inflation betas.     

Debt policy, corporate taxes, and discount rates

This paper applies the standard risk-neutral valuation framework to tax shields generated by dynamic debt policies. We derive a partial differential equation (PDE) for the value of the debt tax shield. For a class of dynamic debt policies that depend on the asset's free cash flows, value, and past performance, we obtain closed-form solutions for the PDE. We also derive the tax-adjusted cost of capital for free cash flows and analyze the conditions under which the weighted average cost of capital is an appropriate discount rate. Finally, we derive closed-form solutions for equity betas, which differ from the formulas that have traditionally been used to lever and unlever equity betas.     

在线互动对跨界营销效应影响机制的计算实验研究

在线互动对于提高跨界营销效应具有重要作用。为了理解顾客消费跨界产品背后的逻辑全貌,基于CAS理论构建了在线互动影响下的跨界营销效应的行为模型,应用计算实验方法模拟了企业引导视角下的激励因素、情感引导因素、网络特征以及综合引导策略如何通过在线互动对跨界营销效应的演化产生影响。结果表明：激励强度正向影响跨界产品的销量绩效,但对品牌资产绩效作用不明显;情感引导力度对跨界产品销量绩效和品牌资产绩效均有正向影响作用;网络关系有助于跨界产品的扩散及企业品牌资产绩效的提升,但网络规模的作用效果不确定;综合引导策略在整体表现上均优于单一引导策略。研究结论对参与跨界营销的企业提升跨界营销效应具有一定的参考价值。     

New estimates of time-varying currency betas: A trivariate BEKK approach

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed markets and four emerging markets. We employ a modified trivariate BEKK-GARCH-in-mean model of Engle and Kroner (1995) to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock index, the world market portfolio and changes in bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. It is found that currency betas are more volatile than those of the world market betas. Currency betas in emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. Moreover, we find evidence of long-memory in currency betas. The usefulness of time-varying currency betas are illustrated by two applications.     

我国基于总收益形式与超额收益形式估计的证券贝塔比较分析

经过简化的基于总收益形式的指数模型被经常用来估计证券贝塔,但这个模型没有理论依据。由于我国无风险利率的方差与市场收益的方差变动比较起来非常小,短期无风险利率的实际变动对贝塔估计值影响很小,因此,从“预测”的角度看,用总收益形式的单指数模型估计贝塔值可以完全替代具有理论基础的超额收益形式的单指数模型估计的贝塔。     

Time-varying beta: a boundedly rational equilibrium approach

The conditional CAPM with time-varying betas has been widely used to explain the cross-section of asset returns. However, most of the literature on time-varying beta is motivated by econometric estimation using various latent risk factors rather than explicit modelling of the stochastic behaviour of betas through agents’ behaviour, such as momentum trading. Misspecification of beta risk and the lack of any theoretical guidance on how to specify risk factors based on the representative agent economy appear empirically challenging. In this paper, we set up a dynamic equilibrium model of a financial market with boundedly rational and heterogeneous agents within the mean-variance framework of repeated one-period optimisation and develop an explicit dynamic behaviour CAPM relation between the expected equilibrium returns and time-varying betas. By incorporating the two most commonly used types of investors, fundamentalists and chartists, into the model, we show that there is a systematic change in the market portfolio, risk-return relationships, and time varying betas when investors change their behaviour, such as the chartists acting as momentum traders. In particular, we demonstrate the stochastic nature of time-varying betas. We also show that the commonly used rolling window estimates of time-varying betas may not be consistent with the ex-ante betas implied by the equilibrium model. The results provide a number of insights into an understanding of time-varying beta.     

Option implied beta and option return

We study the information content of option-implied betas for future equity option returns, using data on the S&P 500 index options and all of the component stock options. We find a significantly strong relation between option-implied betas and option returns cross-sectional. The paper presents evidence that call (put) option returns increase (decrease) with the option-implied betas of the underlying stock. A trading strategy of buying high (low) implied beta call (put) option portfolio and selling low (high) implied beta call (put) option portfolio generates a statistically and economically significant return. Our results are robustly persistent even after controlling for various cross-sectional effects and are not explained by the risk factors in asset pricing.     

Do realized betas exhibit up/down market tendencies?

In this paper we employ the STAR (smooth transition autoregressive) model to investigate potential nonlinearities, cyclical behaviour and duration dependence in the realized monthly betas of 39 US industry portfolios. Tests reject linearity for all but eight industries. The estimated nonlinear models suggest that industry betas are characterised by asymmetric cycles, with the speed of transition between the bull and bear market regimes being relatively slow for seven industries. We find duration dependence in industry betas since the probability of transition between regimes does depend on how long the market has been in an up or a down state.     

Asset pricing with time-varying betas for stocks traded on S&P 500

This study uses a novel approach for capturing time variation in betas whose pattern is treated as a function of market returns. A two-factor model (TFM) is constructed using estimated coefficients of a nonlinear regression. The model is tested against the CAPM and the Fama and French three-factor model in the context of time series regressions. The used stocks are traded on S&P 500. The period spans from 1993 to 2011. The time series regression results depict the superiority of the TFM in explaining portfolio returns including momentum ones. We also provide evidence that the particular portfolios employed at the construction of the new model accommodate different fundamental characteristics and different risk levels.     

Comparison of SML and GMM estimators for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data

A simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimator for the random coefficient logit model using aggregate data is found to be more efficient than the widely used generalized method of moments estimator (GMM) of Berry et?al. (Econometrica 63:841?C890, 1995). In particular, the SML estimator is better than the GMM estimator in recovery of heterogeneity parameters which are often of central interest in marketing research. With the GMM estimator, the analyst must determine what moment conditions to use for parameter identification, especially the heterogeneity parameters. With the SML estimator, the moment conditions are automatically determined as the gradients of the log-likelihood function, and these are the most efficient ones if the model is correctly specified. Another limitation of the GMM estimator is that the product market shares must be strictly positive while the SML estimator can handle zero market share observations. Properties of the SML and GMM estimators are demonstrated in simulated data and in data from the US photographic film market.     

Forecasting volatility in the Indian equity market using return and range-based models

In this article, we assess the time-varying volatility of the National Stock Exchange in the Indian equity market using unconditional estimators and asymmetric conditional econometric models. The volatility estimate and forecast is computed from the interday return and intraday range-based data of the exchange’s flagship index, CNX NIFTY, for the time period spanning 1 January 2009 through 31 December 2013. These are our findings: First, we determine that the time-varying volatility of the index is asymmetric with qualities of stationarity and leptokurtic distribution. Second, the one-step-ahead volatility forecast derived from the univariate time series parameters through the GJR-GARCH ?????process indicates that the model evaluation criteria of the autoregressive process tends towards range-based models vis-à-vis a return-based model. The validity of this methodology is further analysed with the superior predictive ability test, the outcome of which supports the use of range-based conditional models. Finally, among the evaluated range-based model variants, the model confidence set procedure favours the Yang–Zhang estimator as being better suited to forecast the exchange’s volatility than the ones by Parkinson, Garman–Klass and Rogers–Satchell.     

A new approach to modeling co-movement of international equity markets: evidence of unconditional copula-based simulation of tail dependence

Analyzing equity market co-movements is important for risk diversification of an international portfolio. Copulas have several advantages compared to the linear correlation measure in modeling co-movement. This paper introduces a copula ARMA-GARCH model for analyzing the co-movement of international equity markets. The model is implemented with an ARMA-GARCH model for the marginal distributions and a copula for the joint distribution. After goodness of fit testing, we find that the Student’s t copula ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model with fractional Gaussian noise is superior to alternative models investigated in our study where we model the simultaneous co-movement of nine international equity market indexes. This model is also suitable for capturing the long-range dependence and tail dependence observed in international equity markets. Rachev’s research was supported by grants from Division of Mathematical, Life and Physical Science, College of Letters and Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG). Sun’s research was supported by grants from the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) and Chinese Government Award for Outstanding Ph.D Students Abroad 2006, No. 2006-180. Kalev’s research was supported with a NCG grant from the Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University. Data are supplied by Securities Industry Research Center of Asia-Pacific (SIRCA) on behalf of Reuters. The constructive comments of two anonymous referees, the Associate Editor, A.S. Wirjanto, and the Editor-in-charge, Baldev Raj, are gratefully acknowledged. The reviewers and editors are not responsible for any residual errors and omissions.     

制度环境、股权制衡对企业创新绩效的影响机理——基于有调节的中介效应

在对制度环境、股权制衡与企业创新之间的相关性进行理论分析的基础上,利用359家深市上市企业在2008—2010年的数据,实证检验了制度环境、股权制衡对企业创新绩效的影响机理。实证结果表明:制度环境对企业创新绩效具有显著的正向影响,内部驱动力在该影响过程中发挥中介作用;股权制衡正向调节内部驱动力与企业创新绩效之间的关系;高股权制衡度能促进企业增加R&D投入,从而提高企业的创新绩效;低股权制衡度对企业R&D投入增加、创新绩效提升的影响不明显。最后针对营造良好的制度环境、建立有效的股权制衡结构等给出对策建议。     

The Efficiency of the Realized Range Measure of Daily Volatility: Evidence from Greece

In this study we estimate and compare the realized range volatility, a novel efficient volatility estimator computed by summing high–low ranges for intra‐day intervals, to the recently popularized realized variance estimator obtained by summing squared intra‐day returns. Our results, derived from a Greek equity high‐frequency data set, show that realized range‐based measures improve upon the corresponding realized variance‐based ones in most cases, especially for the most actively traded stocks. The usefulness of high‐frequency data in measuring and forecasting financial volatility is apparent throughout the paper.     

团队跨边界行为与新产品开发绩效：设计创新能力的中介效应

设计驱动创新逐渐成为企业竞争中除市场创新和技术创新之外的第三种致胜方式，设计创新能力较强企业往往在市场上占据独特优势地位。基于团队学习理论，构建一个“行为-能力-绩效”双调节模型，探讨团队跨边界行为对于新产品开发绩效的作用机制和边界条件。结果表明：①团队跨边界行为对新产品开发绩效具有正向影响；②设计创新能力在跨边界行为对新产品开发绩效间起中介作用；③团队知识共享在跨边界行为和设计创新能力间起调节作用，团队知识共享越强，跨边界行为对创新设计能力的正向影响越大；④团队监督在设计创新能力与新产品开发绩效间起到调节作用，团队监督越强，设计创新能力对新产品开发绩效的正向影响越大。     

A dynamic estimation of governance structures and financial performance for Singaporean companies

In this study, a sample of 257 Singaporean domiciled non-financial listed companies is investigated using a system generalised method of moments (system GMM) estimator. This approach allows for controlling the potential sources of endogeneity which are inherent in the performance–governance relationship. Our findings strongly support the proposition that the relationship between corporate governance structures and firm performance is dynamic by nature. Moreover, our results show that the internal corporate governance structures do matter in Singapore, where the market for corporate control is relatively poor. This study is novel as it is the first to explore the corporate governance–firm performance nexus using a dynamic approach for the Singapore market. This study significantly contributes to a better understanding of international diversity on corporate governance by providing further empirical evidence from an emerging market characterised by the best corporate governance practices in the Asian region.     

The equity price channel in a New-Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions and banking

This paper studies the role of the equity price channel in business cycle fluctuations, and highlights the equity price channel as a different aspect to general equilibrium models with financial frictions and, as a result, emphasizes the systemic influence of financial markets on the real economy. We develop a canonical dynamic general equilibrium model with a tractable role for the equity market in banking, entrepreneur and household economic activities. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques using U.S. data over the sample period 1982Q01–2015Q01. We show that a dynamic general equilibrium model with an equity price channel well mimics the U.S. business cycle. The model reproduces the strong procyclicality of the equity price. The equity price channel significantly exacerbates business cycle fluctuations through both financial accelerator and bank capital channels. Our results support the increasing emphasis on common equity capital in Basel III regulations. This is beneficial in terms of financial stability, but amplifies and propagates shocks to the real economy.     

Incentives for firms to provide safety: Regulatory authority and capital market reactions

We investigate the relationship between the various incentives that firms have to act safely, focusing on the relationship between the equity losses experienced by a firm following a fatal, accident and the incentive effects created by government regulation. The major findings are that first, the capital market reactions vary dramatically by which agency has regulatory jurisdiction for the accident. And second, the capital market effects tend to be weak (equity values do not decline sizably) where federal agencies rely heavily on an ex ante inspection policy. On the other hand, where ex ante inspection policy is lax or nonexistent, capital market effects tend to be strong - up to an order of magnitude higher per fatality than willingness-to-pay estimates based on labor market data.