An Econometric Analysis of Risk in Himachal’s Apple Production

This paper examines the sources of variability of apple production in Himachal Pradesh. Utilizing variance decomposition procedures, it shows that the changes over time in the average and variance of production are due largely to changes in the corresponding measures for acreage rather than yield. The decrease in the variance of real revenue per hectare over time is also decomposed to reveal that the increase in price/yield covariance is the largest contributor to the change in revenue variance. Accurate measurements of the sources of increased variability can help target policies to reduce or offset the effects of instability.

     

Biology as a Source of Non-convexities in Ecological Production Functions

Generating ecological production functions, including harvest yield functions, is a high priority research area. Most yield functions used in economics and ecology rely on convexity properties of species growth functions, but convexity is shown here to depend on whether realistic biology is incorporated. Optimizing behavior by individual organisms is connected with species population dynamics in order to derive growth functions in a general equilibrium ecosystem model. Non convexities are shown to be an inherent property of the growth functions owing to familiar biological processes including predator-prey and competitive relations, predator satiation and prey substitution. The growth functions generate yield functions that are problematic for management, because they exhibit kinked average revenue curves, discontinuous marginal revenue curves, and knife edge optimum effort levels where a small increase above the optimum effort can rapidly deplete the stock. These phenomena can be explained entirely by the underlying biological processes.     

Modelling energy and labour linkages: A CGE approach with an application to Iran

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.     

Determinants of firms’ investment behaviour: a multilevel approach

This article investigates the determinants of firms’ investment behaviour using firm data from 101 developing and emerging economies. A substantial number of firms does not invest in fixed capital or invests little relative to sales revenue. Using a multilevel probit model we study what factors trigger investment, and using a multilevel Heckman selection model we study what factors influence a firm’s investment-to-sales ratio. We find that firms’ investment behaviour has relatively little dependency on a country’s macroeconomic setting. Additionally, we find that, on average, firms that are completely foreign-owned have a relatively lower investment-to-sales ratio. Finally, we find evidence which suggests that the probability of investing is higher for firms located in countries with more control of corruption and we find some evidence which suggests that partially foreign-owned firms located in countries with relatively less corruption have a relatively higher investment-to-sales ratio.     

中国地方土地财政收入增长影响因素实证研究——基于1995-2008年中国省际面板数据的分析

文章运用面板数据模型考察了中国省际土地财政收入①增长的影响因素,分别利用动态效应模型和阈值效应模型进行了估计,探究各因素在空间和时间发生变化时的影响规律。研究表明,各因素在不同时间、不同阈值效应下对土地财政收入的影响不尽相同:土地财政收入增长具有明显的路径依赖特征,前期的增长会形成惯性而影响后期的增长;一个地区财政压力较大、事权和财权不平衡程度加深、房价上涨会导致该地区土地财政收入增长,但随着经济发展和产业结构变化,这些影响又会有所不同。因此,财税体制改革需要充分考虑地区经济发展和产业结构的差异性,在不同发展程度的地区采用不同的措施。     

Environmental Policy, Tax Incidence, and the Cost of Public Funds

This paper studies under what conditions a double dividend may occur in the sense that both environmental quality and employment rise. A simple static general equilibrium model is employed in which tax policy faces the dual task of internalising a negative environmental externality and raising revenue to finance public consumption. The model features a clearing labour market with both labour demand and supply and a fixed factor of production (e.g. capital). Hence, we can study tax incidence and its effect on employment, environmental quality, and the marginal cost of public funds. It is shown for the case of an upward sloping labour supply curve and less than full tax shifting by employers that a shift towards greener preferences cannot yield a double dividend, even if the fixed factor is important. However, if labour supply curve bends backwards, more environmental concern confers a double dividend.     

Government Underpricing of Share‐Issue Privatizations

Abstract *** :  The purposes of the paper are to determine whether governments underprice shares in fixed‐price share‐issue privatizations (SIPs) and, if so, what their motivations are for doing so. This paper develops three models of SIP underpricing: one based on revenue goals, one based on political goals and an inclusive model which supposes that the level of underpricing depends on both government revenue goals and political goals. These models are estimated using an international sample of 104 SIPs from 25 countries. We find that, on average, SIPs are underpriced by approximately the same amount as private sector initial public offerings (IPOs). This is not consistent with the sole goal of revenue maximization because SIPs should not require the same degree of underpricing as IPOs. The inclusive regression fits the data well and indicates that both revenue and political goals affect the level of SIP underpricing .     

A Political‐Economic Account of Global Tariffs

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of three distinct factors that motivate redistributive government policy: tariff revenues, consumer welfare, and producer profits. We generalize Grossman and Helpman's (1994, American Economic Review 84: 833–850). protection‐for‐sale model by positing that government places different weights on these components of the welfare of its polity when it decides which industries to protect and to what extent. Employing tariff data from 40 countries, the predictions from this model are used to estimate these weights. The results are surprising in their range and variety. Developing countries with weak tax systems often weigh tariff revenue heavily, while more developed countries weigh producer interests the most. Very few hold consumer welfare dear.     

Time is money: The effect of clock speed on seller’s revenue in Dutch auctions

We study the role of timing in auctions under the premise that time is a valuable resource. When one object is for sale, Dutch and first-price sealed bid auctions are strategically equivalent in standard models, and therefore, they should yield the same revenue for the auctioneer. We study Dutch and first-price sealed bid auctions in the laboratory, with a specific emphasis on the speed of the clock in the Dutch auction. At fast clock speeds, revenue in the Dutch auction is significantly lower than it is in the sealed bid auction. When the clock is sufficiently slow, however, revenue in the Dutch auction is higher than the revenue in the sealed bid auction. We develop and test a simple model of auctions with impatient bidders that is consistent with these laboratory findings.

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Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.      

The equity and efficiency of runway pricing

This paper poses and answers the following question: If an airport authority is assumed to choose landing fees that maximize a weighted sum of airline consumers' surpluses subject to a revenue requirement, what set of weights is implied by currently observed fees? The model is loosely applied to San Francisco International Airport. The main result is that commuter airlines are much more favored than others.     

Asymptotic Revenue Equivalence in Auctions

We study the revenue in auctions of a single object when the number of bidders becomes large. We show that all sequences of auctions belonging to a class of mechanisms have limiting expected revenue equal to the expected best-use value of the object. An important special case that is covered is common value auctions, but more generally not even affiliation of values is assumed. This provides an asymptotic revenue equivalence result for settings beyond that of private values. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D44, C72.     

OWN‐ AND CROSS‐PRICE ELASTICITIES FOR GAMES WITHIN A STATE LOTTERY PORTFOLIO

Lotto demand modeling typically focuses on a single game and evaluates whether estimated “effective price” (expected loss from buying one ticket) elasticity is consistent with net revenue maximization. However, a portfolio of several different lottery games is now usually offered to players and judging the effectiveness of agencies in generating revenue requires estimation of both cross‐price and own‐price elasticities. Here we employ data from Spain to derive elasticities. Results imply that games are under‐priced if net revenue maximization is the goal. But the cross‐price estimates suggest that the operator is successful in limiting the extent to which a large jackpot on one game cannibalizes same‐week sales of other games. The paper also analyzes the impacts from two increases in the level of entry fees introduced during the data period. These appear to have affected net revenue favorably. (JEL D12, G11, H27, H30, L83)     

Revenue insurance purchase decisions of farmers

The objective of this study is to evaluate farm, household, and financial characteristics of cash grain farmers’ decisions of whether to purchase revenue insurance. Using farm-level data these characteristics were identified by estimating a logit model of revenue insurance purchase decisions by farm operators. Results indicate that farm operators with the ability to self-insure through accumulation of sufficient wealth reserves measured in terms of the ratio of debts-to-assets, operators with off-farm income, and participation in production and marketing contracts, are more likely to pursue these strategies as a substitute for federal revenue insurance programmes. Further, study finds that older and wealthy cash grain farmers are less likely to buy revenue insurance.     

外资企业税收优惠的非效率性

本文中所说的“外资企业” ,是指由非本国常住单位的自然人和法人投资的企业 ,包括由它们独资或与本国企业合资或合作经营的企业 ,也就是人们通常所说的“三资企业”。最近 2 0年来 ,这一类外资企业在我国享受到了不少税收优惠 ,这些税收优惠使适用于这些外资企业的企业所得税和流转税的税率都明显低于本国企业 (许善达 ,1 999)。本文使用数学模型进行的理论分析将说明 ,这样的税收优惠是无效率的 ,其净结果是降低了本国居民所享受的福利。为了能够进行严格的数量化分析 ,我们必须把外资企业税收优惠的影响分成两个不同的方面 :总收入效应和…     

基于角色分化视角的稻农生产环节外包行为研究——来自江苏省三县(市)的调查

在对江苏省溧水、靖江、洪泽三地水稻种植户实地调研的基础上,利用Logistic模型对影响水稻种植户生产环节外包行为的主要因素进行实证分析,结论为户主性别、受教育程度、是否拥有一门手艺、家庭劳动力构成、家庭收入结构等因素能显著影响农户的外包行为。又比较了各因素对示范户与非示范户影响大小的差异,发现示范户受到各因素影响敏感程度明显低于非示范户,这可能是由于示范户种植惯性大于非示范户造成的。     

我国彩票销售收人的实证分析——基于省际面板数据

本文利用2002-2010年我国31个省市区面板数据,运用固定效应模型分析了我国各省彩票销售收入的影响因素,发现各省市区经济发展水平、生活水平、百万大奖的个数、彩票投注终端机的密度是影响彩票销售收入的主要因素。结论是：以济困、公益等为宗旨和理念的彩票业已经陷入一个悖论;现阶段开展赛马博彩是一个可行选择。     

Manipulable behavior in international trade

In this paper, we present a Cournot duopoly model to analyze the manipulated behavior in international trade. The WTO is assumed as an arbitrator for the exchange in an oligopolistic industry and sets tariff rules according to the SDT principles; a firm's cost is private information both for the WTO and the foreign rivalries. Subsequent to our analysis of several cases we find that a firm may misreport to the WTO for more production revenue and the government may collude with a firm for higher welfare. It is shown that the misreporting and collusion incentives are related to the WTO tariff rule, the misreported cost and market size. Furthermore, a strategy proof tariff rule has been designed in which firms can never make his revenue better off by misreporting production cost.     

Economic inefficiency in a revenue setting: the Norwegian whitefish fishery

The main focus in the inefficiency literature is on suboptimal input use and how this causes increased costs, due to technical and allocative inefficiency. Production or cost functions are then typically used to describe the underlying technology of the firm. The possible revenue loss, due to lower than maximum production levels and suboptimal output mix, has received substantially less attention. By using a revenue function to measure inefficiency, the focus, model and estimation technique presented in this article differ from those of previous studies. A shadow revenue model is used to decompose revenue inefficiency into its technical and allocative components, in which the allocative inefficiency is due to a suboptimal output mix. The approach is illustrated using panel data of Norwegian whitefish trawlers. The results reveal large inefficiencies, with respect to output levels as well as output mix, indicating that this can be an important part of the picture when investigating economic inefficiency. To identify the determinants of revenue inefficiency, we conduct a second-step regression, in which technical and allocative inefficiency is regressed upon a set of explanatory variables. The inefficiencies are partly explained by the management system and fleet structure.     

Mutual supervision in preshipment inspection programs

Preshipment inspection (PSI) programmes are implemented in many developing countries to assist governments in the collection of revenue at their borders. These programs consist of the delegation of the inspection of imports to a private firm. To study these PSI programmes, we develop a hierarchical agency model in which the government authority can rely on two supervisors, namely the private inspection firm and the customs administration, to control importers' declarations. The government's optimal contract is fully characterized. We devote some attention to the inspection policy and its comparative statics properties. In particular, we identify the situations in which PSI programmes are revenue enhancing. We also discuss the reconciliation policy, i.e. what to do in case of conflicting inspection reports by the inspection firm and the customs administration. In the optimal mechanism, mutual supervision between the inspection firm and the customs administration is used to provide adequate incentives to all parties.     

Import Protection Bias

Rodrik (1995) notes that trade regimes tend to be biased towards import protection, while the standard political economy models either yield no prediction on the bias of the trade regime or predict, counterfactually, a bias towards the export sector. This constitutes an important shortcoming in the political economy of trade literature. In this paper, the Grossman and Helpman (1994 ) “Protection for Sale” model is extended by adding government expenditure. This expenditure may be financed via a combination of tariff revenue and a distorting wage tax. In addition to the government expenditure, export subsidies need to be financed either via tariff revenue or a distorting wage tax. With this addition, plausible values of the model's parameters yield import protection bias.