The impact of electricity prices on foreign direct investment: evidence from the European Union

We examine the impact of electricity price variation on net FDI (%GDP) inflows in countries of the European Union. We use panel data of 27 EU countries for a period of 2003 – 2013. We show that electricity prices of south-western and north-eastern EU countries did not converge to one price until now. Dynamic panel data analysis using system GMM shows that besides unit labour costs, tax rates and competitive disadvantage in secondary education, also higher electricity prices reduce countries’ ability to attract FDI. The immediate effects are statistically significant across both sub-regions analysed: in the short run, a 10% increase in electricity prices leads to a decrease in net FDI inflows as a share of GDP by 0.4 percentage points for the south-western and 0.33 for the north-eastern region. In the long run, the response is 0.60 percentage points for south-western and 0.48 for north-eastern regions. Policies should aim at reducing electricity market price differences on the European level through investment in transborder transmission capacity; reductions in FDI, when environmental policy increases after-tax electricity prices, should be countered by other tax reductions as well as harmonization of property rights, absence of corruption and labour market regulations at best-practice level.     

Three levels of education and the economic growth

The aim of this article is to solve the question how the three main stages of education contribute to the labour productivity growth in selected 125 countries in the period 1999–2014. The model is based on the neoclassical production function enhanced with human capital. The authors draw on the Penn World Tables 9.0 and UNESCO databases. The key benefit of this article is that human capital is characterized according to the returns to education from average number of years of formal schooling at the primary, secondary and tertiary level. Based on the panel data analysis, the contributions of capital and of the three levels of education to the growth of labour productivity are estimated. At the same time, the model allows to estimate the contribution of total factor productivity. The results of the analysis show that tertiary education has the strongest impact on labour productivity across the considered economies. At the same time, the breakdown of aggregate human capital by level of education leads to better clarification of the effects of human capital and physical capital on labour productivity. The conclusions also indicate a tendency towards rising returns to scale induced by the secondary and tertiary education.     

Coordination versus flexibility in wage formation: a focus on the nominal wage impact of productivity in Germany,Greece, Ireland,Portugal, Spain and the United States

Wage coordination between countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) aims at aligning nominal wage growth with labour productivity growth at the national level. We analyse the developments in Germany, the EMU’s periphery countries Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain along with the United States over the period 1980 to 2010. Apart from the contribution of productivity to nominal wages, we take into account the contributions of prices, unemployment, replacement rates and taxes by means of an econometrically estimated nonlinear equation resulting from a wage bargaining model. We further study the downward rigidities of nominal wages. The findings show that in past times of low productivity, price inflation and reductions in unemployment still put significant upward pressure on nominal wage growth. The periphery countries are far from aligning nominal wage growth with productivity growth. German productivity is a major wage determinant, but surely not the only one. Within the context of a free bargaining process between employers and labour unions, policy-makers can effectively use the replacement rate to steer the nominal wages outcome.     

Price–value deviations: further evidence from input–output data of Japan

This paper subjects to empirical testing the labour theory of value using input–output data from the economy of Japan for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985 and 1990. The results of the analysis show that labour values and prices of production are extremely good approximations to market prices. In fact, the proximity of prices of production to market prices is closer than that of labour values, a result which suggests that prices of production constitute more concrete centres of gravitation for market prices. Furthermore, we find that prices of production change as a result of variations in income distribution more often than not in a monotonic way and that in fewer cases they display curvatures, which may even reverse the order between prices of production and values.     

Trends in Disaggregated Import and Export Prices in Europe: Implications for the Trade and Wages Debate

We consider carefully the evidence from traded prices (as proxied by unit values) concerning the transmission of the effects of globalisation to domestic labour markets. Using standard index number techniques we decompose changes in sectoral import and export unit values into movements due to changes in pure prices of the initial bundle of goods imported or exported and changes due to upgrading of that bundle. Looking at the imports of selected European countries of textiles, clothing and footwear relative to engineering products we find evidence of strongly falling pure prices of the unskilled intensive products relative to the skilled products in the 1980s. This reinforces the view that import prices can capture the impact of globalisation in terms of falling relative prices for products produced with the intensive use of unskilled labour. However, the trends are not common across all the unskilled sectors; footwear is clearly an exception. In the absence of detailed domestic data, we look for reactions by domestic firms to increased import competition in movements in the price and composition of exports. We find evidence of stiff price competition from imports being associated with similar movements in export prices and no support for the view that import competition from low–wage countries has led to upgrading of the quality of exports.     

Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries

This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.     

The Impact Of Computer Prices On International Comparisons Of Labour Productivity

This paper analyses the international comparability of methods used to convert the value added of the office and computing machinery sector (OCM) into constant prices for nine OECD countries. It concludes that the variations which exist in the price indexes are largely due to differences in the methods countries use to capture changes in the quality of an industry's output over time. The paper evaluates the impact of these different OCM price indexes on the growth rate of labour productivity during the 1980s by conducting a sensitivity test where the US OCM index is substituted for each of the individual country indexes. This experiment causes the OCM labour productivity growth rate to change by over a factor of ten for several countries. This result suggests that international comparisons of labour productivity should not be made for the OCM sector using the official data, and that labour productivity comparisons of sectors OCM belongs to—non-electrical machinery and fabricated metal products and machinery—should be conducted cautiously, if at all.     

Testing Böhm-Bawerk’s theory of capital: Some evidence from the Finnish economy

This paper considers the pure labour theory of value and Böhm-Bawerk’s theory of capital as approximations of Sraffa’s model of single production, and tests them with data from the Symmetric Input-output Tables of the Finnish economy. The results show that (i) in comparison with the labour values, the actual Böhm-Bawerkian production prices are ‘equally’ good or even better approximations of the actual Sraffian production prices and market prices; and (ii) the Sraffian production price-profit rate relationship is, by and large, governed by the differences in the Böhm-Bawerkian average periods of production.     

Sectoral Energy- and Labour-Productivity Convergence

This paper empirically investigates the development of cross-country differences in energy- and labour productivity. The analysis is performed at a detailed sectoral level for 14 OECD countries, covering the period 1970–1997. A σ-convergence analysis reveals that the development over time of the cross-country variation in productivity performance differs across sectors as well as across different levels of aggregation. Both patterns of convergence as well as divergence are found. Cross-country variation of productivity levels is typically larger for energy than for labour. A β-convergence analysis provides support for the hypothesis that in most sectors lagging countries tend to catch up with technological leaders, in particular in terms of energy productivity. Moreover, the results show that convergence is conditional, meaning that productivity levels converge to country-specific steady states. Energy prices and wages are shown to positively affect energy- and labour-productivity growth, respectively. We also find evidence for the importance of economies of scale, whereas the investment share, openness and specialization play only a modest role in explaining cross-country variation in energy- and labour-productivity growth.      

Age dependency and labour productivity divergence

This study finds strong empirical evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the age composition of population matters for labour productivity growth. We applied the fixed effects panel model using data on a large number of countries over the period 1980–2010. Our results suggest that higher age dependency not only directly impacts negatively on labour productivity but also modifies the impact of other determinants of labour productivity. Child dependency has a more adverse effect on labour productivity than old age dependency. We specifically find that the marginal effects of gross capital formation, information and communication improvement, and labour market reforms are significant at lower levels of age dependency. However, the marginal effect of savings on labour productivity is high at a high level of age dependency. The impact of age dependency varies between developed and developing economies. Diversity in the size and nature of age dependency across regions and different income groups help to explain the labour productivity differential across them.     

The impact of trade on the relative wages and employment of low skill workers in France

The impact of international trade on labour markets in developed countries will be different according to the degree of competition in product markets, the flexibility of the labour market and the skill intensity of production. An econometric analysis of the impact of trade in France has been undertaken using sectoral data for the period 1985–p1992. It is found that lower relative import prices reduce the relative employment of low skill workers in the first half the period and reduce their relative wages in the second half. In both cases the effect is more pronounced in sectors where the skill intensity of production is initially low.     

Nature, Power and Growth

This essay reviews the relationship between natural–resource abundance and economic growth around the world, and presents some new results. The principal reasons why resource–based production can inhibit economic growth over long periods are traced to the Dutch disease, neglect of education, rent seeking, and economic policy failures. Across a large number of countries in the period from 1965 to 1998, the share of the primary sector in the labour force is shown to be inversely related to exports, domestic and foreign investment, and education, and directly related to external debt, import protection, corruption, and income inequality. The cross–sectional data show, moreover, that the share of the primary sector in the labour force is inversely related to per capita growth across countries. None of this lies in the nature of things, however. What seems to matter for economic growth is not the abundance of natural resources per se, but rather the quality of their management, and of economic management and institutions in general.     

Rent‐Sharing and Workers' Bargaining Power: An Empirical Cross‐Country/ Cross‐Industry Panel Analysis

In this paper, we study how rents are shared between capital and labour, using industry‐level panel data for 19 OECD countries from 1988 through to 2007. The first step is an explanation of the rent‐creation process. We provide evidence of a significant impact of regulation on value‐added prices at the industry level relative to the value‐added price for the overall economy (rent). In the second step, we dissect the value‐added sharing process. By running ordinary least‐squares and instrumental variables estimations, we obtain results that confirm the Blanchard–Giavazzi prediction: the impact of rents on the capital share depends on workers' bargaining power.     

Structural stability in a cross-country neoclassical growth model

This paper tests for structural stability of the Solow growth model, as recently extended to human capital and applied to a large section of countries by Mankiw, Romer and Weil. The evidence is obtained by ranking each explanatory variable of the model in ascending order and then running recursive regressions and by then splitting the original sample according to cluster analysis before running separate regressions. The evidence shows that the model exhibits overall structural breaks; the convergence coefficient, however, is very stable; the coefficients of the production factors become unstable where the factors become very abundant or very scarce; the coefficient of labour growth is negative and significant, as required by the theory, only if a small group of countries with scarce labour is considered; the same coefficient is instead positive and significant for a group of countries with abundant labour and favourable initial income and investments; the coefficient of investment in human capital is not significant if abundant labour countries or, simply, if influential countries in the regression are not considered.     

Global capital markets,housing prices,and partisan fiscal policies

In recent years, global imbalances have channeled the excess savings of surplus countries toward the real estate markets of deficit countries. By consequence, the deficit countries that attracted lots of foreign capital experienced large run‐ups in house prices, whereas most surplus countries that exported capital exhibited flat or slow house price growth. We first use new house price data and a novel instrumental variable design to show the causal relationship between housing prices and capital inflows, particularly through debt bonanzas. We then argue that international capital flows affect the fiscal policy preferences of both voters and political parties by way of their impact on housing prices. Where capital inflows are large and housing prices are rising, we expect voters to respond by demanding both lower taxes and less publicly‐provided social insurance because rising house prices allow homeowners to self‐insure against income loss. In contrast, declining house prices produce greater demands for social insurance, particularly among those most exposed to housing market risk. We present evidence from two cross‐national surveys that supports these claims, as well as a “before and after” analysis of the housing crash in Eastern Europe. We also show that the connection between house prices and social policy also manifests itself in government spending outcomes, mediated by partisan control.     

Evidence that capital formation is overestimated in low- and middle-income countries in ICP 2011

Using the International Comparison Program (ICP) 2011’s cross-country data on input prices and project cost shares, I show that the ICP 2011 construction prices are substantially underestimated in the 143 low- and middle-income countries where these prices were estimated from input prices. As a consequence, the ICP 2011’s estimate of PPP-adjusted construction is overestimated on average by about 100% and gross fixed capital formation is overestimated by 25–30% in these countries. These nonrandom data errors are of sufficient magnitude to cause serious estimation bias in cross-country growth analyses.     

Structural transformation in Egypt,Morocco and Tunisia: Patterns,drivers and constraints

This study analyses structural transformation in three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries: Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt over a large time period (1960–2010). We examine labour productivity evolution and structural change contribution to productivity growth over different sub‐periods. We analyze the contribution of different economic sectors to aggregate structural change in the three countries. An econometric analysis is also performed to identify the main factors underlying the intensity and the pattern of structural change. Results suggest that the three countries initiated and achieved some progress in structural transformation over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s. However, this process has stagnated at low‐income levels and has remained unfinished. Deindustrialization occurred at an early stage of development in the three countries, in contrast to that noticed in developed and emergent countries. The results of the econometric analysis suggest a significant and positive association between investment and structural change as capital accumulation increases the future productive capacity and triggers reallocative efficiency. The human capital quality and availability has a positive and significant impact on structural change. Trade openness is also expected to boost structural transformations. However, labour market rigidity hampers structural transformation.     

A Decomposition of Changes in Labour Productivity in Australia: 1970-71 to 1989-90*

We show that business-cycle phenomena, climatic conditions and industrial structure are important determinants of annual variations in Australia's labour productivity growth. Another finding is that Australia's productivity slowdown in the 1980s was associated with a reduction in capital growth per unit of labour. The methodology relies on production functions at the industry level We analyze the sensitivity of results to the specification of these functions.     

Is constant returns-to-scale a restrictive assumption for sector-level empirical macroeconomics? The case of Europe

Assuming constant returns-to-scale is commonly agreed for empirical macroeconomic studies when countries are of interest. Recently, an increasing number of works have started to look at sectors building on the same assumption. In this letter, we question the reliability of this assumption for 10 European sectors for the period 1995–2014, for different production factor combinations. We make use of a simple sample-based nonparametric test that does not require any assumptions for any aspect of the production process. Our results suggest that, in general, this assumption is rather acceptable and that the specification with only capital and labour is the best in this case.     

Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple,dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries

We show empirically that aid given to poor developing countries enhances growth and reduces emigration, once several dynamically interacting effects of aid are taken into account in a system of equations. We estimate equations for net immigration flows as a share of the labour force and Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) growth and also for all their regressors including remittances and official development aid. We use dynamic panel data methods for a sample of poor countries with GDPPC below $1200 (2000), for which aid is about 9.5% of GDP. The partial effects in these regressions are working against each other. Therefore, we integrate all equations into a dynamic system and run a simulation. One result is an endogenous migration hump with several peaks. In a counterfactual simulation, we double aid with the consequence that for more than a 100 years migration is reduced and the GDPPC is enhanced, because the positive effects of aid on investment and education dominate the negative direct effects of aid on growth and the unfavourable effects on savings, tax revenues and labour force growth.