The UK demand for steel

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting.     

The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria over the time period 1965–96. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and an elasticity of one for real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering in-sample and out-of-sample tests – are generally very good. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

The demand for preventive medical care

The idea that people invest in health capital is an essential part of models of the demand for health, but the investment motives behind health decision are often obscured by other factors. This empirical paper investigates the demand for adult preventive medical care, where the investment motives are relatively clear cut. Several important results demonstrate the usefulness of the approach. First, the analysis finds that annual use of two preventive services decreases with age. Although not the only plausible explanation, the results are consistent with individuals shortens over the lifecycle. Second, schooling is found to be an important determinant of demand, with the more educated much more likely to use the services. Neither lifecycle nor schooling effects are consistently found in studies of the demand for culture care. Finally, the empirical analysis also provides additional evidence on the responsiveness of the demand for preventive care to change in insurance coverage, an important issue for health policy.     

Table games,slot machines and casino revenue

The main focus of this study is to assess the influence of table games on slot machine and total casino revenues. The subjects of the analysis are 24 rierboat casinos in the midwestern states of Illinois, Iowa and Missouri and three racinos in Iowa. A racino is a parimutuel racetrack which also offers slot machine gaming to its customers. Two econometric models were developed, one for slot machine revenue and one for total (slot machine plus table game) revenue at riverboats and racinos. Of particular interest is the effect on slot machine and total revenue of adding table games to the gaming operation. Slot machine revenue was found to increase with the number of slot machines and decrease with the number of table games. Slot machine revenue was estimated to decrease by 11.5% in the presence of 40 table games, the mean number of table games over the sample. Total win was found to increase with an increase in both slot machines and table games. The elasticity of total win with respect to the number of slot machines and table games was estimated to be 0.786 and 0.219, respectively. Total revenue was estimated to increase by 24.5% for an additional 40 table games.     

The demand for pay service on cable television

A probability model is developed for consumer choice among three television programming options, free over-the-air television, basic cable television service, and pay cable serve which consists of basic service plus a single channel of premium entertainment programming. Estimating equations for the demand for pay service are derived from the probability model and then estimated by applying regression techniques to data from a large sample of U.S. cable systems. The estimated parameters of the demand equation show that the demand for pay service is affected by the prices charged for both basic and pay service, by demographic characteristics of the households served by a cable system, and by the quality of programming offered on both basic and pay services. The demand estimates suggest that the introduction of pay service has substantially enhanced the likelihood of profitable operation for cable systems in major television markets.     

The demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Using the AIDS model, we show that there exists for the UK a stable long-run relationship between expenditure shares on beer, cider, spirits and wine, alcohol prices, total alcohol expenditure and a range of non-economic variables relating to advertising, licensing, the employment, social class and demographic characteristics of consumers, and climate. Our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time-series studies (which exclude most of these non-economic variables) and those found from cross-section studies (which generally include them). However, the restrictions required for separability, homegeneity and symmetry (although not those for perfect price aggregation) are decisively rejected.     

The disaggregated demand for labour in Greek industry

This paper employs the Granger test to examine the causal relationship between growth in the money supply and inflation for the US over the period 1959 to 1986. Alternative procedures, including both statistical search and non–statistical ad hoc methods, are utilized to determine the order of the bivariate distributed lag models used in implementing the test. In general, the results show feedback between movements in the money supply and price level changes. Unlike the results of Thornton and Batten (1985), one of the ad hoc methods for lag–length determination is found to perform somewhat better than the statistical search methods in correctly assessing the causal relationships involving money growth and inflation.     

The US retail demand for fish products: an application of the almost ideal demand system

The main objective is to address the limitations of past US fish demand research through the development of a variation of the almost ideal demand system model for disaggregate fish products at the retail level. Price and expenditure elasticities, as well as elasticities of substitution between fish products and other protein commodities, determined from this work may be used in the context of fisheries management and market development and promotion. Results indicate that with the exception of shellfish, demand for the various fish products is relatively inelastic. Cross-price elasticities are generally moderate while expenditure elasticities are large and positive for fresh fish and shellfish. Demographic effects, especially geographical division, season, race, occupation, age–sex household composition, and price–income interaction, as a proxy for quality, are highly significant variables.     

The demand for information: More heat than light

This paper produces a theory of value for Gaussian information with two states and two actions, tracing the solution of the option pricing formula, but for the process of beliefs. We derive explicit formulas for the value of information. The marginal value is convex and rising, concave and peaking, and finally convex and falling. As the price falls, demand is initially zero, and eventually logarithmic. Its elasticity exceeds one, and falls to zero with the price. Demand is hill-shaped in beliefs, zero at extremes. Our results approximate models where information means the sample size for weak discrete informative signals.     

The demand for mortgage finance in the united kingdom

This paper examines the rationing behaviour of building societies in the United kingdom. Mortgage rationing is defined as the use of non-interest rate terms to allocate available funds and the empirical results indicate that the adjustment of such terms is significant in determining the demand for mortgage finance. In contrast with previous studies, the demand side of the mortgage market is disaggregated between first-time house buyers and existing owner-occupiers.     

RCEP发展历程:各方利益博弈与中国的战略选择

2019年11月,《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)宣布15个成员国结束全部文本谈判,这标志着目前东亚地区规模最大的自由贸易协定谈判即将走向实施阶段,东亚区域经济一体化取得重大突破性进展。本文回顾了RCEP的起源及其发展进程,从各国经济发展水平、产业结构和政治立场等角度展开分析,在此基础上总结RCEP成员国的利益关切与发展诉求,以此深化对东亚地区区域经济合作中问题多样性和复杂性的理解,并从中国立场探讨针对各方基于不同立场的利益博弈所面临的战略选择,并为RCEP后续发展提出相关政策建议和前景展望。     

The stability of cigarette demand

The relative effects of various governmental interventions upon cigarette consumption is important to policy-makers. Historically, the demand for cigarettes has been quite unstable. Previous studies employ fixed parameter models and use dummy variables associated with interventions to stabilize the demand function. In contrast, we use a varying parameter model aplied to data from the United States for 1953–84 to investigate the stability of demand and show that the demand function is stabilized when dummy variables are employed. Our results suggest that industry advertising increases aggregate consumption while government interventions decrease it. However, the marginal effect of government warnings seems to be small, at least in the US: while the effect of the 1964 health warning is statistically significant, the effect of the 1979 health warning is not.     

Demographic variables in demand systems: The case for generality

This paper provides evidence in favour of greater generality in the demographic demand literature. We propose two demographic demand procedures. One extends the Gorman model by allowing non additive interaction between overheads and Barten scaling. The other extends Price Scaling, by allowing the equivalence scale to vary with utility, and offers a test of Equivalence Scale Exactness (ESE). The rejection of ESE is robust to the assumed demand functional forms (RNLPS, QAIDS), to items chosen, and the estimation method (MLE, GMM). The results show that published cell averages yield well determined estimates of the demographic generalisation parameters.This paper was written during my visit to the UBC in Vancouver, Canada in 1992/93. I am grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful remarks on an earlier version. The disclaimer applies.     

The firm demand for liquid assets in an inflationary environment

Measures of inflation and the price level are added to the standard model of liquid asset demand and estimated with cross-section data on Brazilian manufacturing firms over a four-year period characterized by substantial inflation (annual rates of 19, 23, 34 and 35%). Results indicate that economies of scale exist in a model that is stable over time. Interest rates have a strong and elastic impact on liquid asset demand when inflation is explicitly controlled for although this result is not consistent across all subsets of data used. The usual assumption of a unitary price level elasticity of liquid asset demand is rejected and firms appear to conserve on liquid asset holdings as the rate of inflation increases suggesting more careful management of payments flows. Some of these findings contradict those of Ungar and Zilberfarb (1980). There are also some difference in behaviour across ownership groups: Brazilian firms do not exhibit economies of scale while multinationals do; and Brazilian firms adjust actual to desired balances faster than multinational firms.