Budget deficits,short-term real interest rates and the specification of expected inflation: an empirical investigation

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate whether empirical estimates of the effects of budget deficits on short-term real interest rates are sensitive to the choice of the expected inflation variable. Survey data on expected inflation and the rational expectations method described by Mishkin (1981) are used to construct two measures of the short-term real interest rate. Results for two previous studies on this deficit-interest rate relationship are re-estimated using these measures of expected inflation and the interest rate variables. Additional results reported in this paper further indicate that empirical estimates of the interest rate effects of budget deficits are sensitive to the choice of the expected inflation variable. In addition to the choice of the inflation variable, a number of other robustness tests are included. We are able to conclude that (1) increases in budget deficits do not generally raise short-term real interest rates and (2) short-term real interest rates are not independent of the expected inflation variable.

The rate of interest is always based upon expectation, however little this may be justified by realization. Man makes his guess of the future and stakes his action upon it … Our present acts must be controlled by the future, not as it actually is, but as it appears to us through the veil of chance (Fisher, 1907, p. 213).     

The effects of inflation uncertainty and supply shocks on real interest rates

Increased inflation uncertainty and negative supply shocks have been suggested separately as causes of the 1970s decline in real interest rates. When both factors appear in empirical interest rate models, supply forces exert a statistically significant impact on real rates while the effect of inflation uncertainty is insignificant.     

Output,inflation, and interest rates in an estimated optimizing model of monetary policy

This paper examines the impact of sticky price and limited participation frictions, both separately and combined, in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Using U.S. data on output, inflation, interest rates, money growth, consumption, and investment, likelihood ratio tests and Bayesian pseudo-odds measures reveal that the data prefers a model with both structural features. Our results also show that the combined model mimics many important features of the business cycle. In particular, the model generates plausible impulse responses, and monetary policy shocks are responsible for only a modest amount of output, inflation, and nominal interest rate movements.     

Bond rating changes and stock returns: evidence from the Spanish stock market

This study analyzes the effect of corporate bond rating changes by international agencies on stock prices. This topic has not yet been analyzed for the Spanish stock market, despite the growing importance of ratings in Spanish financial markets. On an efficient market, rating changes will only have an effect if they contain some new information. The results from an event study indicate that rating actions cause significant negative abnormal returns in issuing firms around the date of the announcement. This evidence indicates an informational effect related to downgrades, which supports the hypothesis that credit rating agencies provide information that may reduce the asymmetric information problem between firms and investors. In the case of upgrades, our results are compatible with a redistribution of wealth between bondholders and owners or with the reputation hypothesis.      

Time-series model forecasts and structural breaks: evidence from Spanish pre-EMU interest rates

Analysis of the future behaviour of economic variables can be biased if structural breaks are not considered. When these structural breaks are present, the in-sample fit of a model gives us a poor guide to ex ante forecast performance. This problem is true for both univariate and multivariate analysis and can be extremely important when co-integration relationships are analysed. The main goal of this article is to analyse the impact of structural breaks on forecast accuracy evaluation. We focus on forecasting several interest rates from the Spanish interbank money market. In order to carry out the analysis, we perform two forecasting exercises: (a) without structural breaks and (b) when structural breaks are explicitly considered. We use new sequential methods in order to estimate change-points in an endogenous way. This method allows us to detect structural breaks in all four rates in May 1993. However, the effects of these breaks are not very strong, since we found scarce gains in forecasting accuracy when the structural breaks are included in the models.     

Risk-aversion and the term structure of real interest rates

The term structure of real interest rates is studied in the context of a consumption-based general-equilibrium model. It is shown that the expectations hypothesis is approximately satisfied for low interest rate volatility. Otherwise the term premia are generally positive.     

Innovation and stock market performance: A model with ambiguity-averse agents

Empirical evidence on stock prices shows that firms investing successfully in radical innovation experience higher stock returns. This paper provides a model that sheds light on the relationship between the degree of firm innovativeness and stock returns, the movements of which capture expectations on firm’s profitability and growth. The model is grounding on Neo-Schumpeterian growth models and relies on the crucial assumption of radical innovation, characterized by “ambiguity” or Knightian uncertainty: due to its uniqueness and originality, no distribution of probability can be reasonably associated with radical innovation success or failure. Different preferences (α-maxmin, Choquet) are here compared. Results show that the assumption of ambiguity-aversion is crucial in determining higher returns in the presence of radical innovation and that the specific definition of expected utility shapes the extent of the returns. This result holds also in the case of endogenous innovation; risk attitude plays no role.     

Standard and seasonal long memory in volatility: an application to Spanish inflation

The historical series of many economic variables, such as inflation, are characterized by a strong persistent behaviour in the form of long memory, not only in the long run or at zero frequency but often also at seasonal frequencies. In financial series, long memory is not apparent in levels but strong persistence in higher order moments such as volatility has been proven to be a stylized fact in stock returns. Interest in economic time series has, however, focused on the persistence of levels and little attention has been paid to higher order dependence, which can be important for assessing the stability of the series. We propose a semiparametric analysis of the standard and seasonal persistence of the volatility of a monthly Spanish inflation series. The conclusions can be summarized in three main results. First volatility shows strong persistence implying an unstable trend in prices, but its structure depends on the proxy used, the absolute values, the squares or the logarithms of squares. Second, the structure of the persistence of volatility changed with the first oil crisis in 1973, with a persistent trend in both periods, in contrast with levels. Third, the Taylor effect, which is well documented in financial series, does not apply in this series.     

Labour market effects of public capital stock: evidence for the Spanish private sector

This paper provides a new rationale for the positive effect of public capital stock on employment and wages. We show that higher levels of public capital reduce wages along the wage equation and enhance employment due to the resulting larger elasticity of labour demand with respect to wages. The estimation of a structural model for the Spanish private sector reveals that this wage channel is empirically relevant. We use the estimated parameters to simulate the recent incidence of the ratio of public to private capital stock on the private sector economic performance. We find (i) sizeable effects on employment, capital stock and gross domestic product, and (ii) that the wage channel is particularly important for employment.     

An empirical note on Euro market interest rates,domestic interest rates and the expectations theory of the term structure

An empirical analysis of recent monthly data for 8 currencies indicates that the performance of the expectations theory to explain the short term maturity spectrum of Euro interest rates is rather good in most cases and that it is not related to the degree of integration of Euro and domestic markets.     

Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect

Tests of the Fisher effect are plagued by high persistence in interest rates. Instead of standard regression analysis and asymptotic results, methods relying on local-to-unity asymptotics are employed in testing for the Fisher effect with monthly U.S. data covering the period 1953:1–1990:12. These procedures are extensions of a recently presented method (Cavanagh, Elliott and Stock (1995)) based on simultaneous confidence intervals, and they have the advantage of being asymptotically valid whether interest rates are integrated of order one or zero, or near unit root processes. Taking appropriately account of the near unit root problem the findings in most of the previous literature are reconfirmed. There is support for the Fisher effect in the interest rate targeting period (1953:1–1979:10) of the Federal Reserve but not in the 1979:11–1990:12 period. First version received: July 1999/Final version received: April 2000     

Non-linear cointegration and adjustment: an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model for US interest rates

This paper seeks to extend the extant empirical evidence regarding asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium of short and long interest rates. Using an adaptation of the exponential smooth transition model to allow for sign asymmetry in the transition function, we show that equilibrium reversion exhibits two broad characteristics. First, small deviations are random, while large deviations are reverting. Second, deviations that arise when the long rate exceeds the short rate are characterised by quicker reversion than the opposite case. These results are consistent with the effects of arbitrage and central bank intervention. Finally, forecasting exercises support this model over alternate linear and non-linear specifications.      

Semiparametric EGARCH model with the case study of China stock market

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric method for GARCH model by combining the EGARCH (1,1) model and local polynomial regression. Based on the idea of two-stage estimate, a link function is estimated by the local polynomial and then the parameters are obtained via the weighted least square method. Finally we apply this method to the Shanghai Composite Index in the China stock market and compared the results with these of EGARCH.     

Real interest rates,inflation and the open economy: A regime-switching perspective on Australia and New Zealand

We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.     

The effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the real interest rate in the United Kingdom

This paper studies the effects of the monetary policy regime shift to inflation targeting on the stochastic properties of the real interest rate in the U.K. The empirical analysis suggests a constant mean of the real interest rate that shifts with the monetary policy regime change to inflation targeting in October 1992. The mean-reverting level of the real interest rate has decreased from 5.1% to 2.3% per annum with the change in monetary policy to inflation targeting. In addition, the shift in monetary policy regime to inflation targeting has reduced the volatility of the real interest rate and increased the persistence of real interest rate deviations from the mean. The results suggest that the central bank can affect the stochastic properties of the real interest rate through the choice of monetary policy regime over a long period of time.     

Sentiment dynamics and stock returns: the case of the German stock market

We use weekly survey data on short-term and medium-term sentiment of German investors in order to study the causal relationship between investors’ mood and subsequent stock price changes. In contrast to extant literature for other countries, a trivariate vector autoregression for short-run sentiment, medium-run sentiment, and stock index returns allows to reject exogeneity of returns. Depending on the chosen VAR specification, returns are found to either follow a feedback process caused by medium-run sentiment, or returns form a simultaneous systems together with the two sentiment measures. An out-of-sample forecasting experiment on the base of estimated subset VAR models shows significant exploitable linear structure. However, trading experiments do not yield convincing evidence of significant economic gains from the VAR forecasts, and it appears that predictability of returns from sentiment decreases during the recent market gyrations.     

Openness and interest rates: An analysis using the MIUF model and transaction cost model of money

This paper discusses the manner in which the difference in the specification, which generates a demand for money by agents, alters the optimal interest rate in open economies by taking into account that the prices reflect the producers' optimization. In acanonical money-in-the-utility function (MIUF) model, the Friedman rule is optimal. On the other hand, in the transaction cost model, the optimal interest rate is positive and increases, in terms of the share of imports in consumption.