Estimating bivariate yield distributions and crop insurance premiums using nonparametric methods

Modelling crop yield distribution is crucial in crop insurance premium setting. The correlation between different crop yields due to rotations or systemic risks requires estimation of joint yield distribution for multiple crops. In this article, we apply a nonparametric method to estimate bivariate yield distributions using farm-level yield data of wheat and corn in Shandong Province in China. Then, the simulated yields are used to evaluate the expected indemnity of one traditional and one hypothetical crop insurance programme. Our results reveal that the nonparametric bivariate method is very flexible in shaping the yield probability density functions to estimate local idiosyncrasies and correlation between two crops. It is also feasible to simulate the nonparametric yield distributions at a satisfying level of accuracy. The simulation results show that the hypothetical two-crop insurance contract can be more affordable to farmers than traditional individual crop insurance contracts.     

基于非参数核密度法的农作物区域产量保险费率厘定研究

利用湖北省82个县(市、区)1991～2007年县级中稻单产数据,逐县选择相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型拟合其中稻历年单产,并计算出单产减产率,然后在此基础上运用非参数核密度估计法算出各县中稻产量保险纯费率,最后考虑到农作物产量损失的空间相依性,根据各县所面临的系统风险状况对纯费率进行调整,得到更为合理的纯费率。     

Pricing farm-level agricultural insurance: a Bayesian approach

This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Paraná (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.      

Transferable Ageing Provisions in Individual Health Insurance Contracts

Abstract. We consider lifetime health insurance contracts in which ageing provisions are used to smooth the premium profile. The capital stock accumulated for each individual can be decomposed into two parts: a premium insurance and an annuitized life insurance, only the latter being transferable between insurers without triggering premium changes through risk segmentation. In a simulation based on German data, the transferable share declines in age and falls with an increasing age of entry into the contract. In spite of different benefit profiles, it is almost identical for women and men.     

中国寿险需求实证分析

本文对国内外的寿险需求分析研究进行了简单综述，在此基础上抽取全目30省市1998—2003年的数据．采取面板数据模型就收入、通货膨胀、社会保障、银行利率、死亡率等寿险需求影响因素与保费收入相关性作了Granger因果性检验分析。     

农作物区域产量保险风险区划指标体系研究

划分农作物区域产量保险风险分区的关键是确定区域大小及指标体系,难点是如何尽量将必要却难以量化的指标合理量化。本文以划分湖北中稻县级产量保险风险分区为例,探讨如何在综合考虑气候、农业灾害、地形地貌、水利设施等因素的基础上,建立一个适当的指标体系,其中包括少数量化具有一定难度的重要指标。     

Welfare costs of reclassification risk in the health insurance market

We assess the quantitative importance of reclassification risk in the US health insurance market. Reclassification risk arises because the health conditions of individuals evolve over time, while a typical health insurance contract only lasts for one year. Thus, a change in the health status can lead to a significant change in the health insurance premium. We measure welfare gains from introducing explicit insurance against this risk in the form of guaranteed renewable health insurance contracts. We find that in the current institutional environment individuals are well-sheltered against reclassification risk and they only moderately gain from having access to these contracts. More specifically, we show that employer-sponsored health insurance and public means-tested transfers play an important role in providing implicit insurance against reclassification risk. If these institutions are removed, the average welfare gains from having access to guaranteed renewable contracts exceed 4% of the annual consumption.     

连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究

本文以我国寿险市场为背景,通过建立包括保险决策的资产选择的动态连续时间模型,给出了保险产品价格成本效应对寿险需求影响的理论分析,并通过具体的数据分析讨论了模型的意义。本文还实证研究了目前我国保险市场一些主要的保障型寿险产品的附加保费因子及其对我国居民保险需求的影响。这在某种程度上解释了我国目前保障性保险需求不足的现象。同时本文实证分析的结果显示我国的保障性保险还远没有满足我国居民的潜在需求,并针对这种现象提出了相关的政策建议。     

The optimal insurance contract in a competitive market

The author reviews some earlier work on optimal insurance contracts by Arrow and Mossin. He then shows that some results in this work carry over to any premium system which satisfies the additivity condition inherent in a competitive market.     

城镇居民基本医疗保险适度缴费率分析

城镇居民基本医疗保险缴费率是指把城镇居民纳入基本医疗保险体系后,从社会平均水平看,在一定时期内(通常为一个月)各参与主体为城镇居民所缴纳的基本医疗保险费占工资的比重。通过构建城镇居民基本医疗保险适度缴费率模型,根据模型对城镇居民基本医疗保险适度缴费率进行测算,对现行城镇居民基本医疗保险实际缴费率的适度状况进行了判断,并提出相应的策略选择。     

基于条件价值评估法的中国巨灾风险保险模式定量设计——基于网络问卷调查的实证研究

巨灾风险损失经验数据的缺乏使得保险人设计合理的巨灾风险保险模式存在较大困难。基于巨灾风险保险的准公共物品性质,通过网络问卷调查,运用条件价值评估法,从消费者意愿角度对中国巨灾风险保险模式的主要项目进行定量设计,可以克服非寿险常规费率厘定方法的缺陷,对纠正巨灾风险保险市场失灵亦有积极意义。     

商业养老保险的保障水平研究

一般认为商业性养老保险具有较高的养老保障水平,有其他养老保障体系所不具备的优势。但站在投保者个人理财的角度来看,我国现行商业养老保险的投入产出比较低,相对养老保障水平较低,投保者缴纳的养老保险费及其按银行定期存款利率计算的投资收益不足一半被用于被保险人的养老,这与保险公司支付给保险销售人员的佣金有着重要关系。     

保险费率市场化改革的时机、路径与步骤

从目前的保险市场实践看，保险费率市场化的时机已日趋成熟。我国现有的经济金融条件决定我国保险费率市场化改革应以渐进的方式进行。建立和实行多层次的弹性费率体系，扩大保险费率浮动权，制定体现地域差别的保险费率制度，保险同业协会制定指导性费率，最终达到保险公司自主确定费率的改革的目标。     

Does asymmetric information matter in the early insurance market? Evidence from the auto insurance market

In the late 1960s, the performance of automobile insurance declined dramatically in Japan in spite of rapid growth in the diffusion rate, and the premiums were sharply raised several times in order to improve the situation. This observation indicates the possible presence of adverse selection (death spiral), and provides an ideal situation for assessing informational asymmetry. Using bodily injury liability (BIL) insurance data from 46 Japanese prefectures over the period 1966 to 1975, this article tests two hypotheses of adverse selection: (i) high-risk drivers were more likely to join the BIL insurance market and (ii) sharp premium increases drove low-risk policyholders away. Various empirical analyses show that there is little evidence for either type of adverse selection. We also test whether a risk-misperception hypothesis can explain our results, and find some evidence that the population density have a significantly positive impact on the demand for BIL insurance.     

意外险的需求模式、感觉阈限与通货膨胀率——基于三区制门限回归模型的实证分析

文章基于中国2000-2010年季度数据的实证分析表明,通货膨胀率不仅显著影响意外险需求,而且意外险保费收入增长率与通货膨胀率之间不是简单的线性负相关。首先,意外险需求对通货膨胀率的敏感程度是边际递减的;其次,与通货膨胀风险相比,投保人更加厌恶通货紧缩风险;最后,由于需求模式在门限值附近出现较大改变,可能会冲击意外险市场,当通货膨胀率接近门限值时保险公司应及时调整营销策略。     

基于灰色理论的中国保险业保费规模预测

本文主要以中国的28年保费数据为基础,结合中国保监会1980—2008年中国总保费的数据。从非机理方面建模,采用完全的灰色理论,并基于样本数据改进了现有模型。在充分分析问题的基础上,得出未来一段时间内灰色理论模型及相应指标,预测我2009—2015年的保费规模。预测结果表明我国的保险规模从2007年开始保费规模迅速攀升,此后将呈现出高速增长的态势。并在定量预测的基础上,采用定性分析的方法,对我国的保险业未来发展趋势进行分析,并提出保险业持续发展的相应对策。     

Does market competitiveness significantly affect public intervention in agricultural insurance: the case in Italy

Analyses of agricultural insurance failures often assume the existence of competitive supply, tracing the reasons for high insurance cost and limited farmer participation to informational problems, and suggesting the need for premium subsidization in order to increase participation. However, in countries such as Spain and Italy, where agricultural insurance is most highly subsidized, it could be that supply is not fully competitive. In this article, we explore the incidence of public subsidies to agricultural insurance premia when supply is noncompetitive. Through the use of a simple empirical model of an insurance market, it is shown that, while in the case of a competitive supply, subsidies to insurance would benefit farmers, a monopolistic supply would capture most of the subsidy, thus eliminating the potential incentive towards wider participation by farmers. The model is applied to a panel of Italian farms for different levels of risk aversion to demonstrate the limited effect that a subsidy to a hypothetical all risk yield insurance would have on farmer participation in the case of monopolistic supply.     

Is there a safety premium in the design of corporate bond contracts?

This study examines empirically whether there is a safety premium in the design of bond contracts by highlighting a safety attribute of general mortgage bonds in Japan, which can give especially strong protection to bondholders, who would have priority in the event of legal liquidation. The effects of a safety attribute were not prominent at first in the difference-in-differences analysis. However, the methods for analysing selectivity bias allow us to provide a safety premium in the design of bond contracts, such as lower spread, lower commission, and larger issue size. The resulting bias would depend on the reputation of the bookrunner. This study uncovers the underlying link for the connection between a safety attribute and the observed and unobserved issuer and bookrunner characteristics, to indicate that a safety premium is related to various terms of bond contracts, including the bookrunner-issuer match.     

建设工程勘察设计职业责任保费厘定方法研究

我国正处于建设工程勘察设计职业责任保险的研究开发阶段,由于缺乏保险精算所必需的历史数据,以观察法作为该险种保费厘定的方法具有较强的实践性和可操作性.本文通过对影响建设工程勘察设计职业责任保险保费主要因素的分析和对其厘定特殊性的研究,提出了基于观察法的综合保费确定方法,并总结了该险种保费计算的一般步骤.     

Quantile hedging for equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy

In this paper we examine equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy via quantile hedging whose purpose is to look for the optimal probability of a successful hedge under initial budget constraint. Most of the existing studies have focused on valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts by quantile hedging or in a framework of stochastic interest rates. However, a few have taken into account simultaneously the two techniques, which make valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts more difficult. We model the term structure of interest rates by classical HJM model that imbeds stochastic interest rate economy into one containing an arbitrary number of additional risky assets. By means of the change of measure approach, we give explicit formulas for the fair values of the following four products: deterministic payoff contract, pure equity-linked life contract, equity-linked life contract with guarantee, equity-linked life contract with minimum guarantees and capped benefits. We find that the explicit formulas are mainly composed of normal distribution functions and two-dimensional normal distribution functions. We also investigate sensibility of the survival probability using data of interest rates, stock prices and life table from China.