Are Gulf stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

The purpose of this article is to test for the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for seven stock markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and to determine the effect of the correction for thin trading. Three new multiple variance ratio tests are applied to both observed returns and returns corrected for thin trading. It is found overall that the RWH does not hold for the GCC stock markets at both daily and weekly frequencies. This evidence is particularly strong when daily returns are used, where the RWH is soundly rejected for both observed and corrected returns.     

How stock markets react to regulatory sanctions? Evidence from France

Our study of how the stock market reacts to sanction announcements by the French financial regulator from 2004 to 2017 finds that the market reacts negatively when a sanction is announced in the press. Cross-sectional regression models show that the penalties are too low to influence market reactions. Our results suggest that after the financial crisis of 2008, a plethora of news on financial wrongdoings has desensitized markets to announcements of sanctions against large companies.     

How are Africa's emerging stock markets related to advanced markets? Evidence from copulas

The finance literature provides ample evidence that diversification benefits hinges on dependence between assets returns. A notable feature of the recent financial crisis is the extent to which assets that had hitherto moved mostly independently suddenly moved together resulting in joint losses in most advanced markets. This provides grounds to uncover the relative potential of African markets to provide diversification benefits by means of their correlation with advanced markets. Therefore, we examine the dependence structure between advanced and emerging African stock markets using copulas. Several findings are documented. First, dependence is time-varying and weak for most African markets, except South Africa. Second, we find evidence of asymmetric dependence, suggesting that stock return comovement varies in bearish and bullish markets. Third, extreme downward stock price movements in the advanced markets do not have significant spillover effects on Africa’s emerging stock markets. Our results, implying that African markets, with the exception of South Africa, are immune to risk spillover from advanced markets, improves the extant literature and have implications for portfolio diversification and risk management.     

Does stock trading volume signal future dividends? Evidence from Iberian firms

Portuguese Economic Journal - In the study we test the theory that financial markets can provide relevant information about forthcoming corporate events. More specifically, we examine the ability...     

Are Islamic stock markets efficient? A time-series analysis

This article investigates the weak-form informational efficient hypothesis for three major Islamic stock markets (world, emerging and developed). Unlike previous studies, we applied different parametric and nonparametric tests to investigate efficiency in the short and long horizons. Using recent data over the period May 2002–June 2012, we developed a time-series analysis of Islamic stock price dynamics in the context of the recent global financial crisis (2008–2009). Our analysis offers two interesting results. First, emerging Islamic stock markets seem to be less efficient than developed Islamic markets, suggesting interesting investment opportunities and diversification benefits from this region in both the short run and the long run. Second, nonrejection of the cointegration hypothesis for developed Islamic markets and the global conventional stock market point to efficiency for the former in the long term, even if it is inefficient in the short term. This finding has at least two economic and political implications: (i) investors who seek moderate risk would do well to opt for Islamic funds in developed countries, particularly as they share the same tendency and provide similar expected returns in the long term as conventional funds, (ii) Islamic financial systems can offer a useful model that can help to reform and remodel conventional financial institutions.     

What drives the perception of health and safety risks in the workplace? Evidence from European labour markets

Worker perceptions of job-related health risk are a little-studied dimension of heterogeneity in the labour market. According to information from the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS), one out of three European workers considers that her health and safety is at risk because of work. Not surprisingly, risk perceptions are influenced by objective risk factors such as hazardous working conditions, onerous job characteristics and by the probability to be affected by occupational accidents and illnesses. This paper explores also the role played by personal characteristics and household structure for the explanation of risk perceptions. After controlling for job characteristics, workplace hazards, job satisfaction and health outcomes, I find that risk perceptions are strongly correlated with gender, age, and household structure. Lone parents as well as older and more experienced workers have a higher propensity than other categories to consider their health at risk because of work. The same seems to hold true for better educated workers, especially for those who have completed tertiary education. Further results suggest that the relationship between household structure and risk perception is stable across gender.     

Are choice experiments reliable? Evidence from the lab

This study investigates whether a popular stated preference method, the choice experiment (CE), reliably measures individuals’ values for a good. We address this question using an induced value experiment. Our results indicate that CEs fail to elicit payoff maximizing choices. We find little evidence that increasing the salience of the choices or adding monetary incentives increase the proportion of payoff maximizing choices. This questions the increasing use of CE to value non-market goods for policy making.     

Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.     

Does European development have Roman roots? Evidence from the German Limes

This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and a non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany are more developed than the non-Roman part. This is done using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this developmental advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.     

Are banks public utilities? Evidence from Europe

The regulatory response to the global financial crisis has been to instal a myriad of new rules in order to improve bank capital and liquidity, as well as to reduce systemic risks through structural reform. All these new rules place a straightjacket around banker’s activities and inhibit their operational freedom. This new environment has made European banks look less like private free-wheeling profit-maximising firms and more like public utilities. The utility services banks provide to society means that they should be overseen even more heavily. This includes greater regulatory oversight of bank pricing, profitability and service provision.     

Does investor sentiment dynamically impact stock returns from different investor horizons? Evidence from the US stock market using a multi-scale method

This article uses the investor sentiment index to investigate the Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for the US economy using a multi-scale method. To focus on the local analysis of different investor horizons, bivariate empirical mode decomposition is used to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different timescales. We employ the linear and nonlinear integrated Granger causality method to examine the causal relationship of decomposed series on similar timescales. The results indicate both strong bilateral linear and nonlinear causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. However, there is no strong evidence for correlation of stock returns and investor sentiment on shorter timescales.     

Does exchange rate pegging enhance credibility? Evidence from the European Monetary System

The European Monetary System (EMS) has been credited with immediately enhancing the credibility of onetary policy among its member countries. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this view. This study provides evidence from exchange rate data that political actions taken to support the EMS enhanced rate arangement. Further, empirical results were sensitive to the specification of the estimating equations, and varied dramatically if risk premia (discounts) were absent from estimating equations.     

How do voters perceive changes to the rules of the game? Evidence from the 2014 Hungarian elections

Voters often rely on partisan attachments as they evaluate new policy proposals, but does partisanship also color their interpretation of incumbent efforts to entrench themselves in power by changing the “basic rules of the political game”? We explore this question by taking advantage of a rare instance where a single party held a supermajority sufficient to unilaterally amend the constitution and overhaul the electoral system. We embedded a randomized experiment in a panel survey around the 2014 Hungarian elections, providing respondents with different information about recent changes to the Hungarian electoral rules. While respondents were largely pessimistic about the reforms, providing information yielded no significant effects on their views on the elections' legitimacy. But when information was presented alongside partisan cues, respondents became more negative in their views. Subgroup analysis shows that this effect is concentrated entirely among those not supporting the incumbent. Partisan differences in opinion dwarf any treatment effects we were able to induce. We provide evidence that these findings are unlikely the result of a well-informed populace. Rather, we provide the first experimental evidence that partisan-motivated reasoning applies not only to public policy under fixed institutions but also to changes to the institutional rules of a political system. Incumbents can exploit strong partisan attachments to reduce political competition.     

Are microfinance markets monopolistic?

Do microfinance institutions (MFIs) operate in a monopoly, monopolistic competition environment or are their revenues derived under perfect competition markets? We employ the Panzar–Rosse revenue test on a global panel data to assess the competitive environment in which MFIs of five selected countries operate: Ecuador, India, Indonesia, Peru and Philippines, over the period 2005–2009. We estimate the static and the dynamic revenue tests, with analyses of the interest rate and the return on assets. We control for microfinance-specific variables such as capital-assets-ratio, loans-assets and the size of the MFI. The analyses also account for the endogeneity problem by employing the fixed-effects two-stage least squares and the fixed-effects system generalized method of moments. Our results suggest that MFIs in Peru and India operate in a monopolistic environment. We also find weak evidence that the microfinance industry in Ecuador, Indonesia and Philippines may operate under perfect competition.     

Labour migration as a way to escape from employment vulnerability? Evidence from the European Union

Free Movement of people is a fundamental principle of the European Union (EU). In a context of strong divergence in employment and working conditions among EU member states, migration can be seen as a way to increase employment opportunities but also to escape from poor working conditions at home. In this article, we focus on the possible influence of employment vulnerability by comparing its individual level among migrants and native workers in EU countries. We implement propensity score matching methods using data from the European Social Survey (2008) and indexes of employment vulnerability proposed by Bazillier et al. (2014). Overall, we show that migrants face the same level of employment vulnerability than natives, all other things being equal. But there are strong differences by skill-level. Low-skilled migrants have a lower level of vulnerability mainly because of a lower level of employer vulnerability while high-skilled migrants face a higher level of vulnerability, because of a higher level of job vulnerability.     

How does economic policy uncertainty drive gold–stock correlations? Evidence from the UK

In this article, we investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on correlations between the UK stock market and gold market. We find that less certain economic policies result in lower correlations, while more certain economic policies result in higher correlations. The correlations are symmetric and show no structural breaks caused by the recent financial crisis. The recent financial crisis has not changed EPU effects on the correlations. The effects of one positive one-standard-deviation shock of the logarithmic change rate of the EPU on the correlations last approximately 19 months.     

Does reference point matter in the leverage–return relationship? Evidence from the US stock market

The leverage–return relationship is supported by inconclusive empirical evidence in terms of its sign and significance. In this study, we argue that such a puzzling relationship can be understood by extending the traditional theoretical framework in a way that captures the reference dependence characteristics of prospect theory. We postulate that a firm’s leverage position relative to its reference point (i.e. target leverage) combined with market conditions places firms in either a gain or a loss domain, thereby resulting in different leverage–return relationships. Leverage and expected equity returns generally exhibit positive and negative relationships in gain and loss domains, respectively. Three hypotheses are derived and tested using 1998–2013 empirical data from the US stock market. This article contributes to the existing literature by confirming the applicability of prospect theory in explaining expected returns in the stock market.