Worldwide impact of IMF policies during the Asian crisis: who does the IMF help,creditors or crisis countries?

This paper examines the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) policy announcements on financial markets worldwide. We investigate reactions from stock, bond, foreign exchange and futures markets and banking and financial companies during the Asian crisis. We explore the impact of IMF bailouts not only on crisis countries, but also on main creditor countries. We study the impact of local governments’ and public responses in crisis countries to account for interaction between the IMF and local parties. We show IMF involvement and local governments’ co-operation actually helps crisis countries but not creditors. We show that in crisis countries, financial markets generally react unfavourably to their governments’ initial demands for IMF assistance, while compliance of the crisis countries with the IMF policy action is commonly perceived as good news. Financial markets in crisis countries react negatively to prolonged negotiations and government actions against IMF policy. Creditor countries’ financial markets are not responsive to IMF actions in crisis countries. We discuss policy implications of findings.     

后危机时代中国金融国际化发展趋向展望——基于金融安全的视角

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机逐步演变为全球性金融危机。在此背景下,金融国际化备受质疑。面对危机,应该客观地看待金融国际化与金融安全之间的关系。在后危机时代,为夯实国家金融安全基础,防范金融危机,中国不仅不应放慢金融国际化的步伐,反而应主动融入金融全球化的浪潮,进一步推进社会信用体系的国际化演进进程,以缩小国间制度落差;借世界金融格局变革之机,积极参与后危机时代的国际金融秩序重构,提升话语权;在遵循一定协调原则的前提下,主动参与货币政策的国际协调;强化金融监管的国际合作,联手防范金融风险的国际传递;紧跟国际监管趋势,宏观与微观审慎监管并举,构筑国家金融安全的监管防线。     

A Personal Agenda for the Next Decade

The paper sets a broad agenda touching several areas of policy. It starts from the least likely policy at this point of time, the use of the tax system for redistribution. It discusses prudent macroeconomic coordination without the strings of the Maastricht Treaty in business troughs. Regulation of financial markets, agricultural policies, and health issues are coming up on a desirable agenda of the United States, but are probably important for all countries, as are social security policy and climate change.     

企业自主知识产权成果产业化的财政政策研究——基于国际经验的分析及借鉴

自主知识产权成果产业化,能够提高我国自主创新能力、转变经济增长方式、增强我国核心竞争力。本文分析了我国现行促进企业知识产权成果产业化的财政政策存在的诸多问题,例如财政资金投入不足、政府采购规模相对偏小、提出优惠政策不够;并通过研究发达国家促进企业自主知识产权成果产业化的财政政策,提出为促进我国企业自主知识产权成果产业化,我国应增加对企业自主知识产权成果产业化的投入,建立自主知识产品采购制度,以及构建我国企业自主知识产权成果产业化的税收激励政策。     

危机损失、经济复苏与金融结构比较——什么样的金融体系更能摆脱危机

本文从比较分析视角出发,研究在应对金融危机的过程中,不同的金融结构对经济增长的作用。我们利用57个国家从1960到2009年的面板数据检验了金融结构、金融发展水平与经济增长之间的相互联系。研究结果表明,只有当金融发展水平较高的经济体选择市场导向的金融结构时,才能降低金融危机的损失,提高经济复苏速度,而金融发展水平较低的经济体的最佳选择则是银行导向的金融结构。最后,本文结合中国的现实情况提出了相关的政策建议。     

International policy coordination mechanism with respect to the moral hazards of financial intermediaries

This paper examines the impact of cross-border financial externalities on moral hazards of the banking sector, and an international policy coordination mechanism to reduce the moral hazards of the banking sector considering cross-border financial externalities. We demonstrate that the moral hazard of banking, such as reducing the monitoring efforts, is aggravated by cross-border financial externalities, while the introduction of an international policy coordination mechanism might reduce the moral hazard caused by these externalities. Moreover, international policy coordination is less likely to be sustained when the policy maker is short-sighted and the banking sector has greater political influence. However, when the distortionary cost of a liquidity aids policy is lower with high administrative transparency, and cross-border financial externality is greater, the coordination mechanism is more likely to be sustained. The results imply that efforts to launch an effective international financial coordination mechanism should start with countries with higher administrative transparency, more political stability, and enhanced financial integration.     

Can a comparative capitalism approach explain fiscal policy activism?

This study investigates the implications of models of capitalism for the responsiveness of countries’ fiscal policies during business cycles using new data for member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and China. We expand the literature by adding the category of East Asian nonliberal capitalism to the established distinction of liberal market economies and nonliberal coordinated market economies. These three differ substantially not just in their fiscal policies, but also in monetary policies, degree of financial market orientation, exchange rate regime, and labor market organization. As in previous studies, we find that governments of liberal economies adopt more countercyclical fiscal policies. Departing from existing studies, however, among the nonliberal models of capitalism, (East Asian) state-led models have more countercyclical fiscal policies than (European) coordinated market economies, perhaps as countercyclical as liberal economies, both historically and during the 2007–9 crisis. This is due to less independent central banks, managed float of exchange rates, and limited financial market orientation and financial openness in East Asia, which allow for more active fiscal policy. Among political factors, left-of-center governments, fractionalized party systems, and election years are associated weakly with countercyclical fiscal policy, as expected. Labor market coordination and welfare generosity have unclear roles in regard to fiscal policy, a topic for future research.     

应对新冠疫情冲击的货币政策国际协调

新冠疫情冲击了世界经济增长和金融市场稳定。很多国家推出极度宽松货币政策应对危机。从经典货币政策国际协调的博弈理论来看,应对本次疫情冲击的各国货币政策协调性不足,“以邻为壑”的非合作均衡效果明显。为数不多的货币政策协调也存在执行力不足、深度与广度不够、新兴市场国家话语权低等问题。在世界经济紧密联系、货币政策溢出效应加强的背景下,为了应对疫情冲击,国际组织需要创设协议和合作剩余分配机制,寻找货币政策刺激效果和防止国际资产泡沫之间的平衡,加强政策沟通和信息共享,提高新兴市场国家话语权,建设有效的应对危机的货币政策国际协调机制。中国应在“一带一路”倡议的框架下建立长期货币政策协调机制,在现有的IMF和G20等平台上发挥发达国家与新兴市场国家之间的协调桥梁作用,通过持续开展央行间技术性合作等措施参与和推进协调进程。     

Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia

The paper evaluates monetary policy and its relationship with the exchange rate in the five Asian crisis countries. The findings are compared with previous currency crises in recent history. It is found that there is no evidence of overly tight monetary policy in the Asian crisis countries in 1997 and early 1998. There is also no evidence that high interest rates led to weaker exchange rates. The usual tradeoff between inflation and output when raising interest rates suggested the need for a softer monetary policy in the crisis countries to combat recession. However, in some countries, corporate balance sheet considerations suggested the need to reverse overly depreciated currencies through firmer monetary policy.     

Brain Drain,Fiscal Competition,and Public Education Expenditure

A two‐country model is developed in this paper to examine the implications of fiscal competition in public education expenditure under international mobility of high‐skilled labor. The authors allow for educational choice, asymmetry of countries with respect to total factor productivity, and tax base effects of migration in source and host country. As the latter may give rise to multiplicity of equilibrium, alternative belief structures of mobile high‐skilled workers are carefully taken into account. The paper also looks at the consequences of bilateral policy coordination. While in line with other studies on tax competition, bilateral coordination can reduce the under‐investment problem in public education spending, it also tends to hinder migration or may even reverse the direction of the migration flow that materializes under non‐cooperative policy setting. As a result of its potentially adverse effects on migration patterns, bilateral coordination may therefore reduce global welfare and bring the world economy further away from the social planner's solution.     

有效利用出口退税政策促进对外贸易健康发展

出口退税政策是世界各国普遍采用的一种促进对外贸易发展的手段,在2007年爆发全球金融危机后,中国出台了包括提高出口产品退税率的一系列经济复苏计划,以最大限度地降低危机对中国经济的影响。从出口退税的理论基础入手,回顾了中国出口退税政策的发展历程,分析了出口退税政策调整对对外贸易的影响,探讨了出口退税率调整对中国外贸行业的影响,并提出了利用出口退税促进对外贸易发展的相应对策。     

日本研发税制改革及其对我国的启示

实践证明,税收激励政策是政府支持技术研发的重要手段,对研发活动具有重大影响。在当前全球金融危机形势下,如何运用好税收激励政策,是政府支持企业进行积极的产业结构调整,使经济尽快走出“低谷”的一个重要方面,也是在促进经济平稳较快发展中发挥科技支撑作用的一个重要环节。本文将通过分析和总结日本研发税制改革过程,提出进一步改进和完善我国现行研发税收政策的思路。     

论银行体系在货币投机攻击中的融资角色

20世纪末爆发于东南亚国家的金融危机给该地区乃至整个世界经济都造成了严重的损失。危机之后一些学者对于该地区银行的经营业绩与危机之间的关系作了大量的研究,研究结果表明经营状况较差的银行体系往往会诱发货币危机的爆发。本文在前人研究的基础上独辟蹊径,论述了一国良好的银行体系在投机性货币攻击中所扮演的角色,进而提出了对一国国内信贷量进行控制的政策操作建议。     

考虑关键核心技术发展的我国集成电路产业政策效力研究

基于专利数据识别集成电路产业关键核心技术，构建技术发展水平评价指标体系并评估关键核心技术发展水平。进一步基于13项关键核心技术对产业政策进行分解匹配，测度各技术环节政策措施间协调度，并实证分析政策措施及其协调度对关键核心技术发展水平的影响。结果表明，我国集成电路产业各关键核心技术差距明显，技术发展水平相对较低；规划引导措施对关键核心技术发展存在显著正向影响，监管认证、税收优惠、规划引导与技术支持措施间协调情况对关键核心技术发展具有显著负向影响，现有金融支持、技术支持措施与其它措施间协调情况较差，不利于关键核心技术发展水平提升。未来政策应鼓励创新主体加大研发投入力度，及时更新监管认证措施并加强对金融支持等措施的监督，为关键核心技术发展提供更强有力的政策保障。     

EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND MONETARY COOPERATION: LESSONS FROM EAST ASIA AND LATIN AMERICA*

This paper analyses the mechanisms of, and draws lessons from, currency crises in Asian and Latin American countries in the 1990s and 2000s. In Asian countries fiscal deficits were insignificant in size, and were not part of a crisis trigger, while in Latin America they played a major role in the crisis story. Crisis management by international financial institutions has been evolving over the last 10 years, and private‐sector involvement (PSI) has occupied centre‐stage in efforts to reform the international financial architecture. Sovereign debts, a focus of PSI discussions, were neither a cause nor a propagation of the Asian crises.     

外商直接投资与东亚金融危机——一个新的分析视角

关于东亚金融危机爆发原因的研究很多。但是大多数研究没有注意到FDI的大量流入对于东亚国家爆发金融危机的影响。虽然FDI没有直接引起金融危机的爆发,但是它确实对危机国家经济脆弱性的形成发挥了作用。FDI给东道国带来的金融风险往往是潜在的,如果不能有效监管,这种潜在金融风险就有转化成现实金融风险的可能。所以,一味提高FDI的引资比重并不能使发展中国家摆脱金融危机的侵扰,发展中国家有必要加强对FDI的监管。     

Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement

Using a 30‐year panel of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations from of a broad set of countries, we demonstrate that the signing of a bilateral tax treaty increases the comovement of treaty partners' business cycles by half a standard deviation. This effect of fiscal policy is as large as the effect of trade linkages on comovement and stronger than the effects of several other common financial and investment linkages. We also show that bilateral tax treaties increase comovement in shocks to nations' GDP trends, demonstrating the permanent effects of coordination on fiscal policy rules. We estimate trend and business cycle components of nations' output series using an unobserved‐components model in order to measure comovement between countries and then estimate the impact of tax treaties using generalized estimating equations.     

人民币汇率制度和出口退税政策的演变及政策评价

汇率制度和出口退税政策一直是开放经济体对外经济制度的重要组成部分,是有效调节出口贸易最重要的两种政策手段。中国的人民币汇率制度和出口退税政策经历了计划经济体制时期、经济转轨时期、社会主义市场经济体制初步确立时期、亚洲金融危机时期、全球经济危机时期六个发展阶段,其中1978—1993年人民币汇率的贬值对出口的促进作用较为明显,1994—2010年出口退税成为影响出口的重要因素。目前,随着人民币渐进升值,出口退税成为影响出口和产业结构调整的重要政策工具。     

现代化进程中的东亚行政改革

在现代化进程中,东亚各国(地区)的政府在大力推进经济社会发展的同时,本身也面临着革新的任务。特别是亚洲金融危机的出现和克服,进一步说明了加快行政改革的紧迫性和共谋行政发展的重要性。在东亚行政改革中积累了一些丰富的经验,值得中国借鉴。中国的行政体制改革和发展,应该立足于中国自身的环境和现实。     

EU regional policy and tax competition

The European Union (EU) provides coordination and financing of trans-European transport infrastructures, i.e. roads and railways, which link the EU member states and reduce the cost of transport and mobility. This raises the question of whether EU involvement in this area is justified by inefficiencies of national infrastructure policies. Moreover, an often expressed concern is that policies enhancing mobility may boost tax competition. We analyze these questions using a model where countries compete for the location of profitable firms. We show that a coordination of investment in transport cost reducing infrastructures within union countries enhances welfare and mitigates tax competition. In contrast, with regard to union-periphery infrastructure, the union has an interest in a coordinated reduction of investment expenditures. Here, the effects on tax competition are ambiguous. Our results provide a rationale for EU-level regional policy that supports the development of intra-union infrastructure.