Impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance: evidence from a spatial econometric approach

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we examine the impact of regional interactions on China’s trade performance as supported by infrastructure development, using exports and imports of Chinese-owned and foreign-owned firms disaggregated for 28 provinces. Taking into account the disparities in the regional economic activities, we use five spatial weight matrices in a spatial panel lag and spatial panel error frameworks in the period 1996–2016. The spherical distance and the gasoline usage weight matrices measure the impact of ground connections on China’s trade flows. The nautical miles and the river distance weight matrices measure the impact of maritime and river connections on trade flows for provinces along the sea coast, in the Yangtze valley, and along Zhu river, respectively. We find significant cross border effects on provincial trade flows. The effects vary between areas and firms. Overall, our findings show positive influence of regional interactions on China’s international trade performance.     

Interregional Migration of Human Capital and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from Italian Provinces

Since the mid‐1990s interregional migration flows in Italy have dramatically increased, especially from the South to the North. These flows are characterized by a strong component of human capital, involving a large number of workers with secondary and tertiary education. Using longitudinal data for the period 2002–2011 at NUTS‐3 territorial level, we document that long‐distance (i.e., South‐North) net migration of high‐skill workers has increased the unemployment at origin and decreased it at destination, thus deepening North–South unemployment disparities. On the other hand, long‐distance net migration of low‐skill workers has had the opposite effect, by lowering the unemployment at origin and raising it at destination. Further evidence also suggests that the diverging effect of high‐skill migration dominates the converging effect of low‐skill migration. Thus, concerns for an ‘internal brain drain’ from Southern regions look not groundless.     

Forecasting spatially dependent origin and destination commodity flows

We explore origin–destination forecasting of commodity flows between 15 Spanish regions, using data covering the period from 1995 to 2004. The 1-year-ahead forecasts are based on a recently introduced spatial autoregressive variant of the traditional gravity model. Gravity (or spatial interaction models) attempt to explain variation in \(N = n^2\) flows between \(n\) origin and destination regions that reflect a vector arising from an \(n\) by \(n\) flow matrix. The spatial autoregressive variant of the gravity model used here takes into account spatial dependence between flows from regions neighboring both the origin and destinations during estimation and forecasting. One-year-ahead forecast accuracy of non-spatial and spatial models are compared.     

Trade and Inequality with Limited Labor Mobility: Theory and Evidence from China

Does globalization increase inequality in developing countries, and if so, how? In a theoretical model of a regionally heterogeneous economy, we show how different regional rates of technical progress due to trade and FDI interact with constraints to unskilled labor mobility. As favored regions benefit more from trade, their growing demand for skills drains skilled workers from disadvantaged areas, and average incomes in the former grow faster than in the latter. Moreover, this unbalanced regional growth may also raise inequality within each region. It could even reduce absolute income per capita in the less favored region. We test these predictions with Chinese data from the Open Door era. Results confirm that different regional growth rates have increased both interregional and intraregional inequality. Moreover, growth of skills‐based export industries in coastal regions is associated, other things equal, with lower incomes for the poor in inland provinces.     

TECHNOLOGY SPECIALIZATION AND THE MAGNITUDE AND QUALITY OF EXPORTS

Abstract

This paper examines how technology specialization, measured by citation-weighed patents, affects trade flows. The paper analyzes the relationship between (i) technology specialization and export specialization across regions and (ii) the technology specialization of origin and destination and the quality of export flows. We find that the export specialization of regions corresponds to their technology specialization. Regions with higher technology specialization export products of higher quality, as indicated by higher prices. Moreover, export flows to destination countries with a high technology specialization consist of products of higher quality in the specific technology. The results are consistent with knowledge and technology being important for export performance and with regions with higher specialization in a technology being better equipped to produce high-quality products. They are also consistent with destinations of higher technology specialization, having a more pronounced demand for products of higher quality in the same technology.     

Pecking order and core‐periphery in international trade

This paper analyzes the impact of market size and trade costs on bilateral trade flows. A multi‐country trade model with firm‐level heterogeneity in productivities and countries’ market potential provides a simple micro foundation for the link between these variables. In the model, market size and trade costs jointly determine a country‐specific pecking order of exporters serving their destination countries. In a counterfactual setting where bilateral trade costs are homogeneous across country pairs, market size predicts a common ranking of exporters among destination countries. This leads to a unique core‐periphery structure of the world trade network. With heterogeneous trade costs, we illustrate the impact of market size and trade costs on bilateral trade flows and its margins in a simple gravity‐like setting. Using an instrumental variables approach, we find that both market size and trade costs (measured through the network position of countries) have a significant impact on bilateral exports: countries in the core bilaterally trade more with other countries in the core than with peripheral countries, conditional on typical observables.     

Local export spillovers in France

This paper investigates the presence of local export spillovers on both the extensive (the decision to start exporting) and the intensive (the export volume) margins of trade, using data on French individual export flows, at the product-level and by destination country, between 1998 and 2003. We investigate whether the individual decision to start exporting and exported volume are influenced by the presence of nearby product and/or destination specific exporters, using a gravity-type equation estimated at the firm-level. Spillovers are considered at a fine geographical level corresponding to employment areas (348 in France). We control for the new economic geography-type selection of firms into agglomerated areas, and for the local price effects of firms agglomeration. Results show evidence of the presence of export spillovers on the export decision but not on the exported volume. We interpret this as a first evidence of export spillovers acting through the fixed rather than the variable cost. Spillovers on the decision to start exporting are stronger when specific, by product and destination, and are not significant when considered on all products-all destinations. Moreover, export spillovers exhibit a spatial decay within France: the effect of other exporting firms on the export decision is stronger within employment areas and declines with distance.     

INTERNATIONAL AND INTRA‐NATIONAL TRADE: A CONTINUUM APPROACH*

We build up a Ricardian trade model with multiple regions within a nation and examine how international trade determines interregional patterns of production and specialization. We show that the degree of interregional concentration of economic activities moves in different directions in two trading nations. The role of “absolute advantage” becomes crucial in dictating the course of income disparity across regions. We discuss cases with varying degrees of labour mobility and reconfirm the result on post‐trade interregional concentration and dispersion. Later we explore the impact of “scale factor” in this model and show how principle of comparative advantage and economies of scale interact to determine the pattern of specialization and volume of trade.     

基于产业结构区际贸易壁垒的实证分析

文章分别利用直接贸易流量和间接产业趋同两种分析方法考察我国三次产业的地方保护程度。一方面,利用中国投入产出表中的贸易及相关数据,运用边界效应模型分别考察了八大区域中的总贸易和三次产业地方保护程度,分析了生产规模、产品价格、区域位置及区间距离等因素对区际产业贸易的影响,测算边界效应值并运用区域贸易依存度进行了验证和区域分析。另一方面,通过计算产业地区集中度,考察1997-2005年期间地区产业结构的分布趋势,以此考察各产业贸易壁垒的趋势变化。研究发现,产业属性差异对区际贸易有一定阻碍作用,因此,根据产业结构特点制定和谐的贸易体制,尊重比较优势的差异化发展,降低区际贸易壁垒,对促进我国区域经济协调发展尤为重要。     

Location Choice of Multinational and Local Firms in Vietnam: Birds of a Feather Flock Together?

Vietnam enacted the Enterprises Act in 1999, leading to a sharp increase in the number of registered enterprises. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country continued to increase in the 2000s. Thus, this paper examines the location choice of multinational and local firms in Vietnam. We adopt the mixed logit model to conduct an empirical analysis of the possible interaction of neighbouring regions and attracting FDI. Using firm‐level data for the period 2000–2005, the results show that most provincial characteristics exert similar influences on foreign and domestic entrants, except for wage rates, which exhibit an opposing effect. The agglomeration of FDI entices foreign and domestic firms to locate in the same region, whereas the agglomeration of local firms is less relevant to the location choice of all firms. The spatial interdependence effect of attracting investment is particularly relevant to local entrants. Provinces with more foreign (domestic) firms reveal a complementary (competition) effect on the attractiveness of their neighbouring provinces.     

Effect of goods market segmentation on labor mobility: Evidence from China

This study empirically investigates the effects of goods market segmentation on interregional labor mobility using data from National Population Surveys in China. The findings reveal that a one-standard deviation increase in the goods market segmentation index reduces interprovincial migration by 4.0%. Restraining interregional trade and improving industrial specialization are the two mechanisms at work. Further analysis indicates that the restrictive effect of goods market segmentation is greater on highly educated laborers and the labor flows from poorer to richer regions. The heterogeneous analysis also implies that migrants are more concerned about educational resources and consumption diversity.     

Does trade creation by social and business networks hold in services?

Recent literature on the border effect has shown that the intensity of trade in goods is positively correlated with the migration stocks between any pair of countries/regions. The number of references for business networks is more limited, but they are also related with a reduction on information costs. In this article we investigate whether such a relation holds also for Spanish domestic trade flows in consumer services. To this end, we use a gravity model rooted in the Dixit–Stiglitz–Krugman theoretical framework and a unique data set on interregional trade flows for some of the main tourism service sectors, namely, accommodations and restaurants. Our industry-specific analysis finds a large positive effect for restaurants but a more limited effect for accommodations. Forces driving the demand in each sector explain this result and suggest the idea that although social networks can act as a substitute of firms in some sectors at the same time they can enhance trade flows in other sectors. We perform the same kind of analysis with a data set (obtained by a similar method) for domestic trade in goods and discover a different response to social and business networks. Finally, we treat the potential endogeneity by taking the instrumental-variable approach of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator and thus obtain consistent results.     

Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Abstract Using product‐level data on trade between Canada and the U.S., this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). It shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher. Consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis, this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting. Further, this paper shows that the larger Canadian tariff preference margin for the U.S. is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the U.S. territory for re‐export. The preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the U.S., which qualify for preferential treatment. Both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of CUSFTA’s rules of origin.     

A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration

This paper studies the degree of integration of China's domestic market and investigates the determinants of inter‐provincial trade barriers under the rubric endogenous trade policy theory. I rely on industry‐level trade flows extracted from provincial input–output tables to develop a model that analyzes the magnitude and evolution of Chinese provinces’ engagement in domestic trade by computing all‐inclusive indicators of trade barriers. Results underline that over the 1990s, not only was China's domestic market fragmentation along provincial borders great, but it also has become more severe at least between 1992 and 1997. The investigation of province‐level and industry‐level trade barriers confirms the relevance of applying the framework of endogenous protection to explain the level of impediments to trade between Chinese provinces. Findings emphasize that provinces’ domestic trade protection pursues a dual objective of socio‐economic stability preservation and fiscal revenues maximization.     

Measuring internal trade distances: a new method applied to estimate provincial border effects in Canada

In this paper we suggest an improved methodology for comparing the intensity of trade across and within national and provincial boundaries. Earlier efforts to assess border effects for provinces or for countries without internal trade statistics made fairly arbitrary assumptions about average distances for internal trade flows. We improve on earlier efforts by taking more complete account of the distribution of population within each province or country. Internal distance is estimated as a population-weighted average of intra-city and intercity distances as well as distances to and within rural areas. We find higher estimates of internal distances, and hence border effects, than found in previous studies.     

市场分割与区域创新溢出

通过估算2001—2016年29个省区市的市场分割指数,结合区域创新指数和区域经济特征数据,采用空间计量方法研究了市场分割对地区创新绩效的直接影响与间接影响。研究结果表明,整体上,区域技术创新存在显著的空间正相关关系,省份内市场分割的直接效应、省份间市场分割的间接效应以及两者的总效应对区域创新均表现出显著的抑制作用,并且本地市场分割对创新指数提升的抑制作用大于省份间市场分割的间接作用。     

论跨边界次区域物流运输一体化的构建

以世界经济一体化为背景,通过分析我国沿边省区边境贸易中物流成本结构,并对比分析一体化前后的物流总成本,提出跨边界次区域物流运输一体化的构建思路：首先,确定物流运输枢纽城市;其次,规划建设区域边境口岸体系;第三,规划建设区域边贸运输通道。并以新疆—哈萨克斯坦物流运输一体化构建为例进行实证。最终形成＂核心枢纽—枢纽—边境口岸＂共同构成的物流运输网络,降低边境贸易中的物流运输成本及总成本,促进中国传统边境贸易向现代商贸、现代物流的发展升级,并带动和辐射边疆各省区经济全面、快速发展,尽快缩小与沿海地区的差距,且有利于中国的国家安全、边疆稳定、民族团结。     

An Empirical Analysis of a Regional Dutch Disease: The Case of Canada

While there has been extensive research on the Dutch Disease (DD), very little attention, if any, has been devoted to the regional mechanisms through which it may manifest itself. This is the first empirical attempt to research a ‘regional DD’ by looking at the local and spatial impacts of resource windfalls across Canadian provinces and territories. We construct a new panel dataset to examine separately the key DD channels; namely, the Spending Effect and the Resource Movement Effect. Our analysis reveals that the standard DD mechanisms are also relevant at the regional level; specifically, we find that: (a) Resource windfalls are associated with higher inflation and a labour (capital) shift from (to) non-primary tradable sectors. (b) Resource windfalls in neighbouring regions are associated with a capital (labour) shift from (to) non-primary tradable sectors in the source region. (c) The (spatial) DD explains (51  %) 20  % of the adverse effects of resource windfalls (in neighbouring regions) on region-specific non-mineral international exports (in the source region), and does not significantly affect domestic ones.     

ALL ECONOMIC FREEDOM IS NOT CREATED EQUAL: EVIDENCE FROM A GRAVITY MODEL

This article analyzes the differential impacts of different types of economic freedom on bilateral trade flows between the United States and 122 countries over 10 years. A gravity model of trade is employed to investigate how various freedom indices assembled by the Fraser Institute impact the volume of trade, exports, and imports. The main findings of the article are that each of the freedom indices impact heterogeneously across the measure of trade flows, with the changes in Regulation having the biggest impact on trade. All combinations of freedom are used to find the mixture of freedom which yields the largest trade gains. The largest gains from trade generally combine Business Regulation in a variety of different configurations. The smallest gains, or losses, to trade arise with augmented monetary independence. (JEL D02, F14, F55)     

The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input–output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner, Lenzen, Wiedmann and Barrett [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T., Barrett, J., 2007. Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — part 1: a technical note on combining input–output and ecological footprint analysis. Ecological Economics 62 (1), 37–44] in a recent issue of this journal in order to enumerate the CO2 pollution content of interregional trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK (RUK). We extend the analysis to account for direct emissions generation by households, as final consumers, and to a social accounting matrix (SAM), where a more comprehensive account of incomes and expenditures is possible. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, the interregional economy-environment IO and SAM framework for Scotland and RUK allows an illustrative analysis of some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the UK and the existence of a CO₂ ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and RUK.