The Impact of Sector-Specific and Economy-Wide Policy Reforms on the Agricultural Sector in Brazil: 1980–98

This article analyzes the impact of policy reforms and changing macroeconomic conditions on the Brazilian agricultural sector. It stresses four issues: events outside of agriculture were central to the performance of the sector and to the timing and sequence of policy reform; reform involved far more than trade liberalization; the impact of reform on input markets and productivity was key for understanding the period; and policy reform had a highly differentiated impact on the sector. As a result of the reforms, agriculture became the most dynamic sector of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s. Policies still in need of reform are identified. (JEL O13 , Q18 )     

经济政策不确定性、产权性质与商业信用

本文以经济政策不确定性为研究出发点,选取2007年第1季度-2014年第4季度沪深A股的上市公司,讨论了经济政策不确定性对企业商业信用规模的冲击。实证结果表明：当经济政策不确定性较高时,企业获得的商业信用规模总体上有缩小的趋势;国有企业会凭借产权优势抑制企业商业信用规模的下降;而较快的经济增长速度和较差的金融市场环境也会抑制企业商业信用规模的下降。本文的研究结果表明,经济政策不确定性对企业的商业信用规模确实存在冲击,商业信用作为企业维持经营的重要手段需引起特别重视。     

Climate change,health care access and regional influence on components of U.S. agricultural productivity

This article examines factors driving three components of total factor productivity change (TFPC) in U.S. agriculture – technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC), and scale and mix efficiency change (SMEC). We also examine TFPC and contrast implications derived from the component models with those from a directly estimated TFPC model. Our results show that TC and SMEC are both significantly impacted by innovation through public research and improved human capital through education and health care access. TEC and SMEC are significantly affected by farm size, and the latter is significantly affected by public policy. The ratio of family-to-total labour, terms of trade and precipitation have significant impacts on all three components, but extension has no significant impact on any component. Climate change variables are the most impactful factors on each component as well as on TFPC. While the impact of climate change is heterogeneous across regions and components, its estimated historical impact is most often positive. Nearly all TFPC elasticities estimated directly are qualitatively the same as those calculated from the component models and quantitatively similar.     

Does the reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment? Evidence from the China−ASEAN Free Trade Area

Regional trade policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting enterprises' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper uses the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area as the research object. The research uses the “China Industrial Firm Database” from 2001 to 2013 and the “List of Chinese Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions)” to match micro‐enterprise data. Using the difference‐in‐difference (DID) approach to construct quasi‐natural experiments, we study the impact of the reduction in regional trade policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises' OFID. The results show that the free trade agreement strategy implemented by China has reduced the regional trade policy uncertainty, which has had a significant positive impact on Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The establishment of the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area has significantly increased Chinese enterprises' OFID in ASEAN countries. The study further finds that enterprises of different ownership types, in different regions and of different factor intensities display heterogeneous effects in this process. The empirical results of the paper provide new ideas for promoting OFDI from the standpoint of reducing regional trade policy uncertainty, and also provide a new perspective for explaining the increase in foreign investment in China in recent years.     

Public capital,productivity and trade balances: some evidence for the Italian regions

This paper analyses the extent to which intensive investments in public capital may have had an unfavourable impact on the regional trade balances across the 20 Italian regions. Our working hypothesis is that investments in public capital, while stimulating the demand for tradables across the regions, may have a limited positive impact on the supply of tradables in regions characterised by relatively low productivity like the South of Italy (or Mezzogiorno). The empirical results are consistent with our expectations and suggest that programs of investments in public capital should be accompanied by additional policy measures that can remove the structural factors that hamper the total factor productivity growth in specific areas.     

Influence of policy,operational and market conditions on seaport efficiency in newly emerging economies: the case of Vietnam

ABSTRACT

Located in Southeast Asia as one of the most dynamic economic regions in the world and close to north-south shipping routes, Vietnam’s seaports play a vital role in promoting its international trade and economic growth. And yet, most ports are small and owned by the public sector. Their performance is subject to various factors relating to government policy, operational and market conditions. Although the Government has been trying to improve the sector’s performance through corporatization, its corporatization model is unique in many ways compared with reform models in other countries. This study seeks to analyse the effects of government policy, operational and market conditions among other factors, on Vietnamese seaports’ efficiency. Double-bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) and univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using the data sample of 41 ports for years 2015 and 2016. The analysis results show that the factors of production, regional location and reform policy had a significant impact on port performance.     

Liberalization,quality and welfare: removing the Italian VER on Japanese car exports

The empirical evidence that evaluates ex-post the effects of trade policy confirms the presumption, well known in theory, that quantitative barriers to trade have an impact on the average quality of exports. Yet, in evaluating ex-ante the effects of trade policy reform, very few studies take into account the role of the induced change in quality. The paper evaluates the effects of liberalization in the Italian car market through a calibrated model where the choice of the quality of exports is made endogenous. Simulating the removal of the VER on Japanese exports, there are substantial gains from liberalization when only quantity effects are considered. Results change dramatically if quality effects are taken into account: the downgrading in Japanese exports entails a strong reduction in consumers' gains.     

古巴1990年以后的经济改革与新农民化

20世纪90年代早期，经济改革推动了古巴的社会变革，古巴进入了社会变革的新时期。社会变革的一些方面与传统的结构调整相似，而其他方面则与之有所不同。农业方面，国营农场被改造成为各种合作社，进一步细分了合作社的生产力，解放了农产品市场，以及把土地分割给小佃农。通过采访决策者和合作社的领导，并对古巴西部和东部进行调查，可以发现，20世纪90年代的古巴有两个重要特点：一是出现了“新农民化”现象；二是这两个地区的收入差距即使没有扩大，也依旧存在。然而，即使是在最贫穷的地区，小农户的收入还是比雇佣工人的平均收入要高一些，而在其他地区，则是高出许多。总的来说，古巴的经济危机迫使古巴的农业政策朝着巩固小农户地位的方向调整。     

Trade liberalization and technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry

This article examines the impact of trade reform on technical efficiency on the Indonesian chemicals industry using firm-level panel data. The effects of trade reform on technical efficiency are analysed using a stochastic frontier approach. Two variables represent trade reform in this model: effective rate of protection (ERP) and import ratio (IMP). The findings of the present study suggest that both trade reform variables have significant effects on technical efficiency. The coefficient of ERP has a positive sign and is statistically significant, which means that an increase in ERP increases the inefficiency (or decreases the technical efficiency) of firms in the chemicals industry. The coefficient of IMP is negative and statistically significant, which represents the negative impact of IMP on technical inefficiency (or positive on technical efficiency). Thus, trade reform, a reduction in ERP or an increase in IMP, has an unambiguously positive effect on technical efficiency in the Indonesian chemicals industry.     

Sectoral structure, heterogeneous plants, and international trade

I examine the impact of trade policy on manufacturing plant behavior by developing a methodology that addresses both plant heterogeneity and intersectoral resource reallocation. A plant-level microsimulation based upon the industry structure of Bernard et al. (2003) is linked to a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. This linkage permits an analysis of plant-level behavior that encompasses the trade-induced changes in factor prices and consumption patterns. The methodology is applied in the examination of two counterfactual trade policy scenarios on the Chilean manufacturing sector. The results suggest that trade liberalization leads to a reallocation of output toward the most productive producers. This result is driven by two primary causes: (a) a reduction in the price of inputs that promotes the expansion of output by the most productive producers and (b) increased competition from overseas that drives the least productive producers out of the market.     

数字贸易如何影响贸易高质量发展——基于贸易全要素生产率视角的经验证据

贸易高质量发展是高效优质利用国内国际两种市场和资源的关键抓手，能够有力推动双循环新发展格局及经济高质量发展。基于2010—2020年中国省际数据，实证考察了数字贸易对贸易高质量发展的影响及相关作用机制。研究发现，一是数字贸易能够有效促进贸易高质量发展，且这种影响受到市场开放度的调节；此外，从数字贸易各维度看，其对贸易高质量发展的影响存在异质性。二是数字贸易能够通过产业结构和物流业升级对贸易高质量发展产生推动作用。三是空间回归表明某一地区数字贸易发展会对周边地区产生负向溢出效应。进一步的拓展性分析发现，在东部、中部地区数字贸易能够有效推动贸易高质量发展，对西部地区虽有促进作用，但并不明显；数字贸易各维度中，数字技术在中部地区对贸易高质量发展具有显著促进作用，数字产业化贸易在东部、中部地区对贸易高质量发展具有显著促进作用。研究有助于理清数字贸易和贸易高质量发展之间的逻辑关系及作用机制，为我国通过发展数字贸易进而推动贸易高质量发展提供了理论和经验支撑，为政策决策提供建议。     

区域创新效率提升之道:选择性保护还是全面开放

在SNA框架（2008）下科学测算地区R&D资本存量,并利用网络DEA方法测度区域创新效率,以此为基础,利用空间面板模型考察2000—2015年我国各区域对内对外贸易开放对创新效率的影响。结果发现：东部地区创新效率明显高于中西部地区;对外贸易开放度、对内贸易开放度提高均能显著提升区域创新综合效率。不同的是,对外贸易开放度能够促进区域知识创新效率提升,而对内贸易开放度主要提高了区域科技成果商业化效率;从地区影响看,对外贸易开放主要对东部地区创新综合效率具有提升作用,对内贸易开放则主要提升了中、西部地区创新综合效率。基于此,为更好地促进区域创新效率提升,提出相应政策建议。     

自由贸易协定下中国贸易流量的影响因素研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

近年来,随着经济全球化的迅速发展,我国开始实施自由贸易区战略,推进速度与规模令世人瞩目。以2000-2010年期间中国和14个贸易伙伴的贸易数据为样本,采用加入自由贸易协定等变量的扩展的引力模型对各因素对我国贸易流量的影响进行实证分析。结果显示:贸易国(地区)的经济规模、人口数量、文化以及贸易制度安排是影响我国对外贸易的主要因素,其中,自由贸易区的建立在一定程度上确实可以促进我国同贸易国(地区)的贸易流量,而距离对我国贸易流量的阻碍作用仍然十分显著。     

Exploring the nexus between financial openness and informational efficiency – does the quality of institution matter?

This article examines the empirical link between financial openness and informational efficiency of stock markets in 27 emerging markets. Improving on earlier papers, this study has used World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as the proxy of institutional development in dynamic panel data models estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM). Our results show, first, financial liberalization by itself has no impact on enhancing efficiency of stock market. Second, for countries with high level of institutional development, the interaction of trade openness and financial openness become significant. Third, for the same group of countries, interaction effect of financial liberalization and institutional development leads to more efficiency in stock market. Hence, our finding demonstrates the utmost importance of institutional development and its role on liberalization. Our results conclude that institutional development and trade openness are pre-requisites for a country to benefit from financial openness. Our study further provides empirical evidence to theoretical model proposed by Basu and Morey (2005) that governance is the missing link between stock market efficiency and financial liberalization. Our findings suggest that policy makers in developing economies should enhance the quality of their institution in order to optimize the benefits of financial liberalization.     

改进交易效率的农业生产性服务业发展机理与实证研究

基于劳动分工理论与超边际分析方法,构建改进交易效率的农业生产性服务业发展模型,运用面板数据模型对理论模型进行了实证检验。研究发现:商品市场交易效率、农户数量规模、政府补贴和农户劳动力变化是影响改进交易效率的农业生产性服务业发展的四个因素。其中,商品市场交易效率对改进交易效率的农业生产性服务业发展不具有显著正向影响,农户分布密度、政府补贴和城镇化率提高1%,改进交易效率的农业生产性服务业发展水平分别提高0.135、0.955和2.714。     

The impact of regional trade policy uncertainty on the productivity of Chinese export enterprises: The case of China–ASEAN Free Trade Area

Reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty is critical for promoting Chinese export enterprise productivity and will help the economy enter the high-quality development stage. We use the case of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area to empirically tests the impact of the reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty on the productivity of Chinese export enterprises. We apply the difference-in-difference method to micro-enterprise level data from the “China industrial enterprise database” and “China Customs enterprise database” for 2007–2013. Our analysis and results show that establishing the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area has dramatically reduced regional trade policy uncertainty, significantly impacting the productivity of Chinese enterprises exporting to ASEAN. The results also show that enterprises with different ownership types, regions, factor density, and pollution emission intensity show significant heterogeneity in the level of productivity improvement. Applying a mechanism test, we found that the promotion of productivity from a reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty is achieved through the learning effect, the competition effect, and improving the trade environment of imported intermediate goods. The learning effect mechanism has the highest contribution, accounting for 39.01% of the net effect. The empirical results provide novel insight into promoting the productivity of Chinese enterprises exporting to ASEAN from the perspective of reducing regional trade policy uncertainty.     

Does trade liberalization assist third-world industrial development? Experience and lessons of the 1980s

The 1980s can be regarded as a decade of trade liberalization in developing countries. This article reviews the evidence on the impact of trade policy reform measures on economic performance, and identifies a number of policy implications that can be drawn from this experience.     

Transition Problems in Policy Reform: Agricultural Trade Liberalization in India

What will be the domestic growth and distributional effects of agricultural trade liberalization in India? How fast should Indian agriculture be liberalized and what policies should characterize the transition? This paper uses Indian agriculture to analyze medium‐term transition problems that arise in many major economic reforms. Employing a dynamic applied general‐equilibrium model, the paper focuses on the implications for policy design of the absence of efficient capital and labor markets and on the distributional consequences of economic reform in the presence of realistic limits on available intervention instruments. The key finding is that trade adjustment should be supplemented by policies that raise land productivity and, because this takes time, the adjustment should be gradual.     

减税能否提高企业生产效率?——基于西部大开发准自然实验的研究

降低实体经济企业成本,提高其经济效率,是我国供给侧改革的核心内容,而减税政策是重中之重.文章以西部大开发作为准自然实验,基于1998-2007年工业企业微观数据,使用双重差分法研究了减税对实体经济的影响.研究发现,减税政策能够刺激实体经济发展,名义税率每下降1%,企业生产效率平均提高0.38%-0.75%.减税对企业生产效率的影响既有直接效应也存在间接效应.直接效应表现为减税有利于存续企业生产效率的提升,间接效应则表现为减税可以刺激更多的创业活动,而新进入企业比存续企业具有更高的生产效率.异质性检验表明,小企业比大企业对于减税政策更加敏感,而且减税对生产效率的影响随着时间推移先增加后减小,存在长期收敛效应.文章为我国减税政策如何影响企业生产效率提供了经验证据,对于今后税收政策的制定具有重要的理论与实践意义.     

The Potential Impact of Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade on Economic Growth and the Environment: A CGE Model Analysis

A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses (less household consumption) when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy (Scenario c), which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.