农户金融抑制及其福利损失的计量分析

本文运用biprobit模型和match模型,采用3000个农户的微观数据,计量分析了农户金融抑制的程度及其福利损失的大小。研究发现,农户金融抑制的程度为70.92%;由于金融抑制,所有样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.43%、15.43%、15.57%和14.58%,直接受到金融抑制的样本农户平均所损失的纯收入、净经营收入、消费性支出和非土地性资产分别为9.55%、16.83%、16.46%和14.70%;土地面积、教育和医疗费用支出,对农户资金需求具有正的显著影响,金融资产余额对农户资金需求具有负的显著影响,生产性固定资产原值、受教育水平、交通条件和地理位置对农户资金需求的影响不显著;土地面积、受教育程度、地理位置和“关系”对资金供给具有正的显著影响,固定资产总值、交通条件对资金供给的影响不显著。     

农户借贷行为及其福利效果分析

本文研究分析了农户借贷行为及其对收入和福利状况的影响。研究发现 :受教育年限、土地规模、非农收入、所在村庄的发展水平和同一村庄其他竞争农户的特征对特定农户的借款数额都具有显著的影响 ;此外 ,农产品的价格对农户借款数额也具有显著的影响 ,产粮区的农户获取借款的难度明显比其它地区的农户大得多 ;借款对农户纯收入和福利状况在统计上有很显著的影响。     

获得贷款证缓解了农户信贷约束吗*——基于倾向得分匹配法的实证分析

本文利用中国农村金融调查数据,采取倾向得分匹配法,克服了农户获得贷款证的样本选择偏误和内生性问题,评估贷款证的获得与否对农户信贷约束的影响。研究结果表明：获得贷款证的农户信贷约束强度将显著降低438%,而拥有贷款证使农户在生产活动方面的信贷约束强度降低程度大于消费活动。在进一步评估获取贷款证对不同生产消费活动信贷约束的缓解效果时发现,获得贷款证对农户农业生产、做小生意、办企业、建房、上学方面的信贷约束强度有不同程度的降低作用,但对农户婚丧、看病的信贷约束并无影响。     

CREDIT,HOUSING COLLATERAL,AND CONSUMPTION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN,THE U.K., AND THE U.S.

The consumption behavior of U.K., U.S., and Japanese households is examined and compared using a modern Ando‐Modigliani style consumption function. The models incorporate income growth expectations, income uncertainty, housing collateral, and other credit effects. These models therefore capture important parts of the financial accelerator. The evidence is that credit availability for U.K. and U.S., but not Japanese, households has undergone large shifts since 1980. The average consumption‐to‐income ratio rose in the U.K. and U.S. as mortgage down‐payment constraints eased and as the collateral role of housing wealth was enhanced by financial innovations, such as home equity loans. The estimated housing collateral effect is similar in the U.S. and U.K. In Japan, land prices (which proxy house prices) continue to negatively impact consumer spending. There are negative real interest rate effects on consumption in the U.K. and U.S. and positive effects in Japan. Overall, this implies important differences in the transmission of monetary and credit shocks in Japan versus the U.S., U.K., and other credit‐liberalized economies.     

中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据

This paper uses Chinese urban and rural panel data for 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (except Tibet and Taiwan) on the consumption of Chinese urban and rural households in 1995–2005, by constructiong a random effect model, to analyze the impact of sources of household’s consumption demand on the Chinese economy. The quantitative analysis reveals that the per capita disposable income of households is highly relevant in explaining households’ per capita consumption expenditure, in these eleven years, and that China’s consumption function was fairly stable. On the basis of flow of funds accounts (barter transaction) data in 1992–2004, the paper further reveals that, since 1997–1998, China’s consumer demand remains in the doldrums because of the following distribution and redistribution process of the national income: The Government’s share of total income and disposable income is becoming ever larger, while the share of households is declining. Aside from the result that a rise in the burden of personal tuition has a negative impact on per capita consumption demand for urban households, we have not found that housing reform or medical expenses significantly reduce consumer demand in China. We believe that low household consumption demand is caused mainly by the income redistribution between households, government, and corporations rather than the inequality in income distribution across households.     

Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling

This study examines the effects of non-farm income on household consumption expenditures in rural Bangladesh. A two-stage endogenous treatment effect model is built on data from a nationally representative Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to control selection bias. The HIES follows a hierarchical data structure because the survey is based on two-stage stratified sampling. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model is used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity between clusters (PSUs) along with revealing important factors. Results reveal that non-farm income has a significant positive effect on household’s consumption expenditures and non-farm income recipient households spend about 29% more than their counterparts. In addition, higher level of per capita income, education, smaller family size and lower dependency ratio are found to be more effective in increasing consumption expenditures of rural households. Significant cluster-level variations are observed in the analyses. This study recommends that non-farm income generating activities should be encouraged among rural households as this would raise their consumption expenditures and hence, improve welfare and living standards among them.

     

Rural development in the digital age: Does information and communication technology adoption contribute to credit access and income growth in rural China?

Information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in rural livelihoods and household well-being. Therefore, this study examines the impact of ICT adoption on farmers' decisions to access credit and the joint effects of ICT adoption and access to credit on household income using 2016 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey data. Both recursive bivariate probit model and a selectivity-corrected ordinary least square regression model are employed for the analysis. The results show that ICT adoption increases the probability of access to credit by 12.8% in rural China and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less-developed regions to access credit. ICT adoption and access to credit affect household income differently. ICT adoption significantly increases household income, while access to credit significantly reduces it, primarily because farmers do not use the acquired credit to invest in income-generating farm and off-farm business activities. ICT adoption has the largest positive impact on household income at the highest 90th quantile. Our findings suggest that improving rural ICT infrastructure to enhance farmers' ICT adoption and developing ICT-based financial products to enable households to access sufficient funds can improve rural household welfare.     

CREDIT CRUNCH AND HOUSEHOLD WELFARE,THE CASE OF THE KOREAN FINANCIAL CRISIS*

We examine how the credit crunch in Korea in the late 1990s affected household behaviour and welfare. Using 1996–1998 household panel data, we estimate a consumption Euler equation, augmented by endogenous credit constraints. Korean households coped with the negative shocks of the 1997 credit crunch by reducing consumption of luxury items while maintaining food, education and health related expenditures. Our results show that, in 1997–1998, during the crisis, the probability of facing credit constraints and the resulting expected welfare loss from the binding constraints increased significantly, suggesting the gravity of the credit crunch at the household level.     

农村居民点用地变化驱动机制——基于湖北省孝南区农户调查的研究

以地处江汉平原的孝南区为研究区域,利用对农户的问卷调查资料,采用回归分析方法,对农村居民点用地变化驱动机制进行研究。得到如下结论:①显著影响农户是否新辟地基建房的因素包括:家庭规模、家庭收入/信贷水平、对子女教育的支出、攀比心理等因素;②农户新辟地基建房面积的大小受到家庭规模、非农就业人口比例、家庭收入/信贷水平、对子女教育的支出、消费的攀比心理等因素的影响。     

收入结构对家庭消费倾向和消费结构的影响*——基于心理账户视角的研究

本文关注不同收入结构对家庭消费的影响，从行为经济学视角解释了近年来中国居民消费率和非工资性收入占比同时提高的现象。本文使用中国家庭跟踪调查（CFPS）数据，采用面板数据双向固定效应模型进行分析。结果显示，转移性收入和财产性收入的边际消费倾向显著高于工资性收入和经营性收入，财产性收入的边际消费倾向最高，而工资性收入和经营性收入间的边际消费倾向无统计差异。工资性收入和经营性收入更多用于居住等生活必需支出，财产性收入和转移性收入则用于提高众多子类消费。此外，以上结果在城乡间和地区间具有异质性。     

老龄化如何影响我国家庭消费支出——来自中国综合社会调查的证据

基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS)的数据，本文谨慎定义老龄家庭后实证检验了老龄化对我国家庭消费支出的影响。研究发现，老龄化将使家庭消费支出显著下降并对大多数消费分项支出产生较大负面影响，同时会大幅提升家庭医疗服务支出；收入是老龄化影响家庭消费的重要中间变量。基于城乡分类子样本研究发现，乡村家庭受老龄化冲击异常严重，乡村医疗服务供给存在较大缺口。基于分层的城镇子样本回归发现，老龄化对城镇家庭消费的冲击集中体现在较低分位家庭。     

The effects of fiscal policy on consumption in recessions and expansions

This paper explores in a yearly panel of nineteen OECD countries from 1970–2002 the effects of fiscal policy changes on private consumption in recessions and expansions. In the presence of binding liquidity constraints on households, fiscal policy is more effective in boosting private consumption in recessions than in expansions. The effect is more pronounced in countries characterized by a less developed consumer credit market. This happens because the fraction of individuals that face binding liquidity constraints in a recession will consume the extra income generated following an unanticipated tax cut or government spending increase.     

Non-linear adjustments on the excess sensitivity of consumption with liquidity constraints

This article investigates the role of domestic credit markets in explaining the excess sensitivity of private consumption to disposable income using heterogeneous panel data of 19 OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that the degree of the excess sensitivity has decreased as the liquidity constraints of households have been alleviated: the estimated time-varying coefficients for the marginal propensity to consume vary between 0.16 for the countries with low liquidity constraints and 0.38 for those with high liquidity constraints. We also provide evidence that the excess sensitivity has been more prominent after the global financial crisis in some advanced countries, such as Japan, Spain, and the United States, where sharp deleveraging of households has been ongoing.     

Household sectoral choice and effective demand for rural credit in India

An analysis of the ICRISAT data from three Indian villages raises concern about the extent of rationing mechanism inhibiting the spread of formal credit in rural India where a significant proportion of households do not have any outstanding loan or borrow from the informal sector only. A limited-dependent econometric analysis of the factors jointly determining household sectoral choice and effective demand for informal loan conditional on whether a formal loan is available suggests that compared to formal loan easy and adequate access and prompt recovery are significant determinants of the popularity and viability of informal rural credit among sample households; also some households substitute labour income to ease the extent of credit. Thus, rationing of the formal credit is not the only factor inhibiting the spread of formal credit in the study villages.     

财富不平等会抑制金融素养对家庭借贷行为的作用效果吗*——基于CHFS数据的经验分析

本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,选用工具变量法,考察了金融素养对城乡家庭借贷行为影响的差异性,并验证了财富不平等扩大会抑制金融素养对家庭借贷行为的影响。研究发现：（1）金融素养是影响家庭借贷行为的重要因素。户主金融素养水平的改善显著提高了家庭发生借贷的概率与家庭借贷规模。（2）金融素养对城乡家庭借贷行为的影响存在明显差异,金融素养的提高对信贷约束较为严重的农村家庭借贷行为的促进作用更大。（3）财富不平等对家庭借贷行为存在明显的抑制作用,财富不平等的扩大减少了家庭借贷需求,降低了家庭发生借贷的概率和家庭负债规模。（4）随着家庭财富不平等程度的扩大,金融素养对家庭借贷行为的促进作用受到抑制。基于以上结论,政府应该大力开展消费者金融素养教育,注重家庭收入分配合理性,从而推动我国消费金融市场的健康发展。     

Does urbanization reduce rural poverty? Evidence from Vietnam

This paper uses data from household surveys to contribute to the urbanization-poverty nexus literature by assessing the effect of urbanization on income, expenditure, and poverty in rural households in Vietnam. We find that the urbanization process stimulates the transition from farm to non-farm activities in rural areas. More specifically, urbanization tends to reduce farm income and increase wages and non-farm income in rural households. This suggests that total income and consumption expenditure of rural households are more likely to increase with urbanization. Finally, we find also that urbanization helps decrease the expenditure poverty rate of rural households, albeit by a small magnitude.     

农户家庭消费结构的区位差异分析——基于河南16村1000农户的实证

文章运用ELES模型对农户家庭消费结构进行了分析,结果表明:农户目前仍处于低水平消费阶段,生存性消费远高于发展类消费;农户基本消费需求随经济区位变化的敏感性高于自然区位,且在生存类与发展类上存在较大差异;不同区位农户基本消费需求的满足程度各异,其中优势区农户的满足度较高;农户边际消费倾向总体偏低,但优势区农户生存类消费与弱势区农户发展类消费的边际倾向均较高;不同区域各类型户收入弹性的变动幅度较大,差异格局明显。     

经济刺激计划与农村消费启动——基于我国农村居民收入分解的实证分析

文章在对我国农村居民收入构成进行分解的基础上,利用协整等计量工具时影响我国农村居民消费的各种因素进行了量化分析,并由此对照我国政府为应对世界经济危机而出台的一揽子经济刺激计划,分析经济刺激计划中各项具体政策措施在促进农村消费方面的作用.实证分析和政策分析的结果表明:(1)当前对农村居民消费具有显著影响的因素主要是农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入及国家财政农村救济费支出;(2)已出台的经济刺激计划,既有消费价格补贴等短期措施,也有旨在提高农村居民收入、完善农村社会保障、优化农村消费环境的长期性政策,时于促进农村消费具有很强的针对性;(3)未来促进农村居民消费仍需继续着眼于各种长期性政策.国家在加大财政支农力度时,应注重提高农林水事业费以外的支农支出比重;(4)县域经济是启动农村消费的关键.未来的政策着力点可以考虑将启动农村消费与发展县域经济、推动城乡一体化发展相结合.     

居民边际消费倾向的城乡比较——以四川省为例

消费需求是扩大内需、促避经济持续增长的根本动力。研究表明,城镇与农村居民的收入和消费之间具有长期的协整性,但城乡的协整关系不同。城乡居民的边际消费倾向表现出显著的差异性：城镇居民长期平均的边际消费倾向较稳定,而农村居民的边际消费倾向则有较大交动。因此,应根据城乡居民的消费特征,采取增加低收入阶层的收入,培育新的消费点,完善农村社会保障等措施。     

Consumption risk, technology adoption and poverty traps: Evidence from Ethiopia

Much has been written on the determinants of technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented: the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data from Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance or alternative means of keeping consumption smooth leaves some trapped in low return, lower risk agriculture, one of the mechanisms through which poverty perpetuates itself in agrarian settings.