Do asymmetries matter for European monetary policy?

In this paper we analyze the impact of economic and institutional (ECB decision rules) asymmetries on the effectiveness of monetary policy in Euroland. We consider a model where asymmetric shocks and divergent propagation of shocks in output and inflation are potential causes of tensions within the ECB concerning the conduct of common monetary (interest rate) policy. Welfare implications of the alternative decision procedures are discussed.     

Rationality of liquidity preferences and the neoclassical monetary growth model

In the neoclassical monetary growth literature, the rationality condition in the sense of freedom from money illusion is imposed on the demand for nominal balances by assuming that this demand is homogenous of degree one in nominal income and nominal wealth. We argue that the price level should enter into this demand as a separate argument, and that the rationality condition should require that the demand be homogenous of degree one in nominal income, nominal wealth, and the price level. Then, the symmetry issue of the real purchasing power is consequential to the structure of the neoclassical monetary growth model.     

Testing revealed preferences for homotheticity with two-good experiments

It is shown that for two dimensional commodity spaces any homothetic utility function that rationalizes each pair of observations in a set of consumption data also rationalizes the entire set. The result is used to provide a simplified nonparametric test for homotheticity of demand and a measure for homothetic efficiency. The article thus provides a useful tool to screen data for severe violations of homotheticity before estimating parameters of homothetic utility functions. The new test and measure are applied to previously published data.     

The asymmetry of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the euro-area

Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.     

Testing, hold up and the dynamics of preferences

This paper presents an overlapping generations model with cultural transmission of preferences in an economy in which players face a hold up problem. One of the players, the firm, can use a testing technology which allows him to imperfectly monitor his partner's behaviour. This technology is completely useless with homogeneous preferences. We obtain that in the stable steady state of the economy there is a mixed distribution of preferences where both selfish and other-regarding preferences are present in the population. Moreover, with a good testing technology, the steady state is characterized by the first-best result in the investment decisions. JEL Classification: C78, D23, D63 The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology project SEC2001-2763. This paper has also benefited from comments of participants in the XXVIII Spanish Symposium of Economic Analysis in Seville (Spain), in the International Workshop on Social and Behavioral Economics in Valencia (Spain), in the 2nd World Congress of the Game Theory Society in Marseille and in the VI Spanish Meeting on Game Theory and Practice in Elche (Spain).     

The role of indicator selection in nowcasting euro-area GDP in pseudo-real time

This paper studies the correlates of subjective assessments of how easy it would be for a worker to find another job as good as the present one and how easy it would be for an employer to replace a worker. First, I study the correlates of these two subjective assessments. Second, I study whether respondents who report better chances of reemployment receive higher wages and whether respondents who think they are easy to replace receive lower wages. The results are consistent with the standard job-matching model, which predicts that wages increase with better outside opportunity of the worker and fall with better outside opportunity of the employer.     

Tests of different monetary aggregates for the monetary models of the exchange rate in five ASEAN countries

Although the real interest rate parity (RIRP) hypothesis has been extensively tested, there are no conclusive findings. We argue that the mixed findings are a result of the different methods used to calculate the real interest rate. In this article, we examine whether the RIRP holds for four OECD countries using five different methods for computing the real interest rate. The results indicate that the connection between real interest rates tends to be sensitive to the computational method of the real interest rate. Thus, authors have to be careful when comparing results across existing studies, since the type of computational method might be responsible for differences in conclusions of the validity of the RIRP.     

A monetary vector error correction model of the Euro area and implications for monetary policy

In this paper, a vector error correction model for Euro area money, prices, output, long-term interest rate and short-term interest rate with three identified cointegration relations is specified. It is shown that Euro area money and prices can be considered as variables that are integrated of order two or I(2), that is, they have to be differenced twice to become stationary. Accordingly, the relation between money, prices and other macroeconomic variables is analyzed in an econometric framework which is suited for the analysis of I(2)-variables. Monetary policy implications are derived from the estimated system.First revision received: May 2002/Final revision received: May 2003I thank Helmut Lütkepohl, Jürgen Wolters, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SFB 373) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Labor immobility and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in a monetary union

It is believed that a common monetary policy in a monetary union will have identical effects on different countries as long as these countries have identical fundamentals. We show that, when there is specialization in production, the terms of trade react to the shock. The transmission mechanism of a monetary shock has in this case an additional channel, the terms of trade. This is the case even if state contingent assets can be traded across countries. For a reasonable parametrization, the differential on the transmission across countries is quantitatively significant when compared with the effect on the union's aggregates. Monetary shocks create cycles with higher volatility in “poor” countries than in “richer” ones.     

Testing the causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base

An important factor that helps distinguish between alternative balance of payments theories is the assumed causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base. This paper reports test results of this causal relationship in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. Three causal detection methods are used: the Haugh test, the Granger test, and the Sims test. Two conclusions are drawn. First, the causal relationship does not run undirectionally from domestic credit to reserves as the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments and many tests of that approach assume. Second, the results are quite robust across alternative causality tests.     

Communication of preferences in contests for contracts

This paper models a contest where several sellers compete for a contract with a single buyer. There are several styles of possible designs with a subset of them preferred by the buyer. We examine what happens when the buyer communicates information about his preferences. If the sellers are unable to change their style, then there is no effect on the welfare of the sellers. If the sellers are able to make adjustments, extra information may either boost or damage the sellers?? profits. While the chance that there will be a proposal of a style preferred by the buyer cannot decrease, the buyer??s surplus may increase or decrease.     

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies in a search theoretic model of monetary exchange

Search models of monetary exchange commonly assume that terms of trade in anonymous markets are determined via Nash bargaining, which generally causes monetary equilibrium to be inefficient. Bargaining frictions add to the classical intertemporal distortion present in most monetary models, whereby agents work today to obtain cash that can be used only in future transactions. In this paper, we study the properties of optimal fiscal and monetary policy within the framework of Lagos and Wright (2005). We show that fiscal policy can be implemented to alleviate underproduction while money is still essential. If lump sum monetary transfers are available, a production subsidy can restore the efficiency of monetary equilibria. The Friedman rule belongs to the optimal policy set, but higher inflation rates are also possible. When lump-sum monetary transfers are not available, equilibrium allocations are generally not first-best. Nevertheless, fiscal policy still results in substantial welfare gains. Money can be extracted from circulation via a sales tax on decentralized market activities, and the Friedman rule is only optimal if the buyer has relatively low bargaining power.     

Semi-non-parametric estimates of substitution for Canadian monetary assets

We estimate the dynamic Fourier expenditure system to obtain consistent estimates of short-run and long-run Morishima elasticities of substitution for Canadian liquid assets. We argue that the variability of the estimated elasticities and evidence of less than perfect substitution between monetary assets interferes with the successful use of simple-sum aggregates and traditional log-linear money-demand functions.
Calibrations semi-non-paramétriques de la substitution pour des actifs monétaires canadiens . Les auteurs calibrent le système dynamique de dépenses à la Fourier pour obtenir des estimations cohérentes des élasticités de substitution à la Morishima à court et à long termes pour des actifs monétaires canadiens. Ils suggèrent que la variabilité des élasticités estimées et la constatation que la substitution n'est pas parfaite entre les actifs monétaires rendent difficile un usage heureux des agrégats de simple somme et des fonctions log-linéaires de demande de monnaie.     

Problems of monetary control in Norway

Empirical Economics - This paper discusses the framework and problems of monetary policy in Norway. In the recent past the particular instruments employed and the operational targets and monetary...     

Optimal simple rules for the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy

Stabilization policy involves joint monetary and fiscal rules. We develop a model enabling us to characterize systematic simple monetary and fiscal policy over the business cycle. We principally focus on the following question. What are the key properties of the joint simple rule governing the conduct of systematic stabilization policy? We find that conducting stabilization policy incorporates not only a set of monetary policy choices governed by the so-called ‘Taylor principle’ but also fiscal policy that gives considerable force to automatic stabilizers. Recent US and UK monetary and fiscal choices seem broadly consistent with this model. This result is found to be robust to a number of alternate modeling strategies.     

A two-pillar DSGE monetary policy model for the euro area

The current financial crisis has revived the interest for monitoring both monetary and credit developments. Over the past two decades, consistent with the adoption of inflation targeting strategies by a growing number of central banks and the development of New Keynesian models for which monetary aggregates are largely irrelevant, money and credit have been progressively neglected in the conduct of monetary policy. A striking exception has been the Eurosystem, which has implemented a strategy known as the “two-pillar monetary policy strategy” giving a prominent role for money. In this paper, we develop a small optimizing model based on Ireland (2004), estimated on euro area data and featuring this two-pillar strategy. We evaluate an ECB-style cross-checking policy rule in a DSGE model with real balance effects of money. We find some evidence that indeed money plays a non-trivial role in explaining the euro area business cycle. This provides a rationale for the central bank to factor in monetary developments but also raises some issues regarding the reliability of M3 as an appropriate monetary indicator. We find some evidence that the ECB has systematically reacted to a filtered measure of money growth but weak evidence it has reacted more aggressively during excess money growth periods.     

What does the experience of German monetary union tell us about the theory of monetary union?

This paper summarizes the modern theory of monetary unions to identify in what circumstances such unions are supposed to impose low costs on, and give substantial benefits to, their members and then considers the case of the effect on Eastern Germany of German monetary and economic union. This union satisfied most of the conditions for low cost and high benefit, yet the initial impact of union was a severe fall in economic activity in Eastern Germany. The paper concludes that the conventional theory is deficient in ignoring the effects on the poorer member countries of a union of the expectations engendered by the creation of the union, and argues that an explicit regional policy is required in a union of members of widely different income levels.