我国金融发展与经济增长关系的实证分析

金融发展与经济增长的模型显示,金融发展对我国的经济增长具有积极的推动作用,但力度有限;不同发展阶段的金融变量对经济增长表现出不同的作用效果。我国的金融发展滞后于经济增长,加快金融深化和金融体制改革有助于推动经济增长。     

对提高地方国库现金管理质量的思考

随着中央国库现金管理业务的不断开展,地方政府也开始试水现代国库现金管理。但由于起步比较晚,地方国库现金管理仍存在国库现金收益较低、质量不高等一系列问题。为进一步提高地方国库现金管理质量,在分析地方国库现金管理现状和必要性的基础上,引入介绍西方国家用于预测国库现金最佳持有量的Miller—Orr模型,并对下一步怎样提高地方国库现金管理质量提出建议。     

金融深化与经济增长：文献综述与中国实证

20世纪90年代后西方学者对经济增长和金融深化的研究多数支持"供给主导"假说,即金融深化过程会通过提高外部融资可得性、降低外部融资成本来促进经济增长。对我国1978年~2007年间宏观层面的经济增长和金融深化数据进行Grang-er因果关系检验显示,长期内多数结果支持金融深化是经济增长的原因的假说,而短期内两者是相互影响的。     

西部地区金融改革的路径选择与制度创新

中国金融深化改革与西部金融相关配套制度供给不足是造成西部金融抑制的主要原因。打破区域金融的非均衡发展和消除西部金融对经济的抑制,应重点发展政策性银行,组建区域性政策融资机构,探索建立区域性、小型民营金融机构,提高直接融资比例,建立西部基金,实行区域化的金融政策,尽快构建符合西部经济发展的金融体制与组织制度。     

金融深化、资本深化及其互补性研究

文章研究了金融深化、资本深化及其相互关系,提出金融深化是资本深化的被动反应,同时又通过渠道效应促进了资本深化。文章在1952~2004年的时间区间上验证了上述假说,并分析了导致这种资本深化的经济和体制因素。     

中国农村金融深化对经济增长作用渠道的实证研究

金融深化具有储蓄效应、投资效应和资源配置效应,农村金融深化可以通过这三大效应促进农村经济增长。基于中国数据的实证研究表明,农村金融深化对农村经济增长的作用渠道主要是通过农村金融发展规模的扩大来提高储蓄和投资水平,以促进农村经济增长。金融发展效率和投资效率不高,是阻碍农村经济增长的重要原因。     

基于供需角度的农村金融抑制及农村金融深化的路径选择

中国长期以来实行轻农村,重城市的发展战略使得城乡经济发展不均衡,农村金融的发展也落后于城市金融,农村地区普遍存在着金融抑制现象,呈现需求抑制和供给抑制并存的特征,严重阻碍了中国农村经济的发展。只有改变传统的信贷供给逻辑,通过打造农村资金供给的回流机制,引入竞争机制,发展金融机构,在竞争中形成多层次的农村金融机构,进一步推进利率市场化改革的进程,完善农村金融法规、审核监管以及风险保障措施,才能提高农村金融市场的效率,加强金融对新农村建设的支持力度。     

Dual Financial Systems and Inequalities in Economic Development

This paper analyzes the emergence and the evolution of a modern banking system, in a developing economy where banks coexist with informal credit institutions. Banks have a superior ability in mobilizing savings while informal lenders enjoy a superior information on borrowers. More specifically, banks cannot observe perfectly the behavior of borrowers; therefore the latter need to provide collateral assets in order to obtain bank loans. Physical collateral is not needed to borrow in the informal credit market: informal lenders can rely on social networks to obtain information on borrowers' behavior and invoke social sanctions to enforce repayment. The sustained growth path is associated with the successful development of the banking system that gathers savings on a large scale. However, informal lenders and other traditional credit institutions are necessary in the first stage of development when collateral is scarce. In this economy, the development of modern financial intermediaries is closely associated with the accumulation of collateral assets by entrepreneurs. This implies that the initial level of development as well as the initial distribution of wealth will determine the joint evolution of the real side of the economy and the financial system. Under certain conditions, two long-run steady-state equilibria exist: in the first one the economy stops growing and the banking system never successfully develops; in the second one the economy reaches a sustained growth rate and the informal sector asymptotically vanishes. The impact of the following policies is discussed: financial repression, micro-credit institutions and redistribution of assets.     

中国流动性过剩应对策略——基于2000—2007年数据的研究

进入21世纪,全球性的货币扩张带来了全球性的流动性过剩,中国因储蓄倾向较高、外汇管理体制、经济的高速增长、金融产品供给的不足和国际资本的不断进入导致了较为严重的流动性过剩。对此应采取扩大消费需求,大力发展中国的资本市场,改革中国外汇储备管理体制、汇率体制及提高货币政策的有效性等措施。     

中国居民收入差距的演变——基于金融深化视角的实证研究

对中国金融发展与收入差距的关系进行分析发现：（1）中国居民收入差距与金融深化进程遵循倒“U”曲线的演化路径;（2）我国金融深化与收入差距之间存在着扩大的库兹涅茨效应。对此考察后,我们认为：随着金融的发展和现代部门在经济中比重的提高,政府在利用金融体系调控经济中的政策倾向在一定程度上诱导了这一现象的发生。同时,我们预计我国居民收入差距呈扩大趋势并将延续一段时期。     

金融发展理论:一个文献综述

在麦金农和萧之后 ,2 0世纪 80年代末 ,现代金融发展理论在利用现代金融理论和内生经济增长理论重构自己的理论基础之后 ,已经成为一个包括发展中国家和发达国家金融发展问题的一般理论。本文依照金融发展理论的发展脉络系统评述了这一领域的主要文献 ,介绍了最新研究进展。     

Financial deepening and regional economic growth Analysis on Circum-Bohai-Sea Region

Financial deepening can improve economic growth by facilitating capital liquidity and promoting efficiency of allocating resource, which has played an important role in the development of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta in China. As a new economic growth pole, Circum-Bohai-Sea Region should focus on internal financial deepening. In this paper, SWOT analysis is used to observe the level of financial deepening in Circum-Bohai-Sea Region, and some related policy suggestions are given in the end.     

经济增长、金融深化与全球经济失衡

文章建立了一个囊括经济增长、金融市场和资本流动等诸多因素的全球均衡模型,并采用ECM模型实证检验了这些因素对全球经济失衡的影响.研究发现,由于亚洲新兴国家和美国之间存在经济增长率的差异和非对称的金融市场,导致全球经济失衡.解决全球性经济失衡的根本出路在于改变现有的资产组合的供求关系,降低亚洲新兴国家对美元储备资产的需求,而美元贬值则并不能纠正全球经济失衡.     

管制、竞争与民营银行的发展

金融深化的基础是管制与竞争的均衡。计划体制下,国家对金融业一直采取国有控股或国家垄断,因而产生民营银行压抑现象。市场化改革显化了金融制度与经济制度的摩擦,因而民营银行发展在金融深化中具有现实性,也是金融基础设施建设的重要组成。从竞争的角度看,放松民营银行进入壁垒,有助于金融业适度竞争,同时也是国有银行改革的重要组成部分。当然,金融本身的脆弱性说明银行民营化过程也是管制重建的过程。     

资本深化带来了经济危机吗

本文对美、日两国的资本深化过程和经济危机过程的考察结果表明两者之间有紧密的相关关系。按照索洛的稳态增长条件理论,资本深化并不必然带来经济危机。但资本—劳动比不断增长的现实最终会使资本深化远离稳态水平,越来越大的资产价格泡沫和过高的人均资本量只有通过经济危机的爆发来消除和降低。研究结果表明,扩大社会就业和加大民生工程支出等是防止人均资本量过高即资本深化引致经济危机爆发的有效措施。     

Financial deepening and income inequality: Is there any financial Kuznets curve in China? The political economy analysis

The interconnectedness of financial deepening and income inequality has been a highly controversial discussion which has not been concluded despite many empirical and theoretical studies up to date. One of the basic building blocks for many research designs is the reliance upon the Kuznets inverted U-shaped curve which postulates that in the first phase of economic growth income inequality increases, peaks and then decreases to a tolerable level in the later phase after a certain income level had been attained. The role of financial deepening in financing economic growth is an indispensable and necessary condition enabling us to easily draw an analogy between financial deepening and income inequality in a financial version of the Kuznets curve. In spite of 30 years of economic and financial reforms in China, which represents a fairly young history of economic growth and development, there are many indicators that Chinese experience significantly deviates from the presupposed inverted U-shaped curve trajectory and its final equalizing effect. This paper relies on financial deepening data measured by monetary aggregate M2/GDP and domestic banking credit/GDP ratios in its claim that they significantly correlate with rising income inequality. The author’s intention consists not in claiming that financial deepening per se causes income inequality, but provides a political economy analysis of the specific institutional and power configuration which leads to their positive relationship. This configuration is determined by the prevailing banking model, the hukou system, financial repression and the decentralized authoritarian system. On the other hand, the absence of inequality-narrowing institutitons further aggravate the problem. All the aforementioned factors are geared at avoiding mechanical and spurious claims that financial deepening increases or decreases income inequality across countries. A historical institutionalism approach to explain China’s path related to the Kuznets curve prediction shows the central validity of open and inclusive institutions in generating inequality-narrowing benefits of financial deepening.     

金融危机背景下的金融稳定：挑战与对策

国际金融危机的不断发展,使国际金融和经济环境不断恶化,给我国的金融稳定带来了严峻挑战。我们必须充分认识我国金融稳定所面临的种种挑战,积极采取相关措施,有效维持金融稳定,保证金融功能的良好运转,尽快消除金融危机的不利影响,推动我国经济增长的快速恢复。     

贸易深化、企业集聚与经济增长:理论分析与数值模拟

文章首先从贸易深化促进企业集聚、二者又共同促进知识积累的新视角,构建了一个综合性的经济增长模型,然后对该模型进行求解,得出贸易深化与企业集聚共同影响经济增长的数量关系式,并进行了数值模拟,从而得到一些具体的结论。数值模拟发现,贸易深化对经济增速的提高有着比较显著的影响,而企业空间集聚则对经济增速的提高有着更为显著的影响。