The asymmetric price adjustment between REIT and stock markets in Asia-Pacific markets

This paper applies the threshold error correction model to examine the relationship for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and stock, and their asymmetric adjustment behaviors in six Asian/Pacific financial markets: Australia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong. Our results show that there has been long-term equilibrium in REIT and stock indices in most of these markets. To earn exceptional profits, it is recommended that investors can sell (buy) the REITs when the indices of REITs are lower (higher) than equilibrium in Australia, Singapore and Taiwan; on the other hand, they should sell (buy) when the REIT market goes up (down) in Hong Kong and Japan. A causality test revealed that previous information about stocks predicted changes in the REITs in all the Asian/Pacific markets. One can also find that the lead–lag relationships are significant. The threshold EC model predicts two-way causality under both the regimes for the financial markets in most countries during all the sample periods. In addition, the adjustment speeds for the stock indices are faster than that for the REIT indices as disequilibrium occurs. This paper also finds that the previous mentioned trading strategies generally remained the same during the period of sub-prime mortgage crisis. However, the threshold EC model predicts one-way causality for both the regimes for the financial markets in most countries during this crisis period. In addition, we also find that the severe shock in REIT markets led investors in Australia and Taiwan to be more conservative during this period. The REIT indices had more effect on stock indices after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. According to the empirical results, we can infer that the degree of market imbalance and the occurrence of the sub-prime mortgage crisis induce the changes in the investment behavior of market participants.     

On nonlinear dependencies in African stock markets

Ferreira, Dionisio, and Correia (2018. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. 505, 680–687) showed that African stock markets at different time frames (before the Lehman Brothers financial crisis, during the crisis, and after the crisis) do not satisfy the efficient market hypothesis. Here, we provide evidence by means of six different nonparametric tests, and the fit of GARCH(1, 1), TGARCH(1, 1) and EGARCH(1, 1) models accounting for day of the week and month of the year effects that the majority of African stock markets do comply with the efficient market hypothesis.     

Safe haven,hedge and diversification for G7 stock markets: Gold versus bitcoin

We compare gold and Bitcoin for the G7 stock markets, finding that gold and Bitcoin have distinct safe haven and hedging characteristics. Gold is an undisputable safe haven and hedge for several G7 stock indices, whereas Bitcoin takes these two functions in Canada. The out-of-sample hedging effectiveness of gold is much superior to that of Bitcoin. Furthermore, we find that the conditional diversification benefits offered by gold to equity investments in the G7 markets are comparatively much higher and more stable than those of Bitcoin, especially in the lower return quantiles, i.e., when both the stock and gold markets are in a bearish state. Implications are further discussed.     

Arbitrage and equilibrium in strategic security markets

Summary. In view of the fundamental price taking hypothesis, arbitrage is never compatible with equilibrium in Walrasian markets because the existence of an arbitrage opportunity in a competitive situation always leads to unbounded arbitrage activity. In strategic markets however, the mere effort of individuals to profit alters market clearing prices and thus distorts arbitrage opportunities as well. This observation suggests a different relationship between arbitrage and equilibrium, than in the competitive model. Indeed, we show that in such markets a spread between the cost of a portfolio and its returns is compatible with equilibrium. We provide an example of an equilibrium where a resourceless individual holds a portfolio with zero cost and positive return in every state. We further demonstrate via an asymptotic result, that no arbitrage is intimately related to price taking behaviour.Received: 8 September 2001, Revised: 6 March 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: G12, D4, D5, D52. Correspondence to: Leonidas C. Koutsougeras     

Arbitrage opportunities in frictionless markets with sophisticated investors

An example shows that when preferences change over time and consumers are sophisticated, it is possible that arbitrage opportunities exist in frictionless markets, even in equilibrium. The author would like to thank Han Bleichrodt, P. Jean-Jacques Herings, and Peter P. Wakker for helpful suggestions.     

Cointegration networks in stock markets

We use a novel approach based on a combination of network and cointegration analysis to examine linkages between stock markets across market cycles. Our results show that long-run linkages are likely to be global rather than regional and that market turbulence increases linkages. However, we find no widespread common stochastic trends between markets and neither are we able to draw a conclusion that major financial markets display influences network linkages.     

Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies

This paper investigates the causal links between stock market performance and consumption for five Asian economies by applying the bound tests of Pesaran et al. and lag augmented VAR of Toda and Yamamoto . We find two‐way causal relationships between stock market performance and consumption in the cases of Hong Kong and Taiwan in the long run. The existence of such two‐way causal links indicates that stock market performance and consumption mutually affect each other, implying that the previous studies may have overestimated the wealth effect of the stock markets without taking account of the reverse causation from consumption to the stock markets. The short‐run effect of the stock market on consumption is more visible than the long‐run effect in most of the sample economies, suggesting that changes in consumption directly reflect stock market fluctuations.     

Uncertainty and partial adjustment in double-auction markets

A model is presented of price determination in double-auction markets. The framework is contrasted with naive autoregressive models of price behavior. Implications of model choice are illustrated with the use of market experiments from several institutions.     

Modeling the fat tails in Asian stock markets

We test whether stock returns in the Asian markets are characterized by infinite variance or just large variance, which has an important implication for the applicability of many financial models in Asian market data. Employing the extreme value framework, we find that the Asian index return distributions are fat-tailed but have finite variance. However, the tails of the distributions behave similarly to those in the U.S. and the MSCI World index returns, suggesting that any financial model or risk management tool that incorporates the second moment would work equally well for the Asian market data as it does for developed market data. We apply the Value-at-Risk method using Asian and U.S. data and find no significant difference in performance.     

Bargaining and separation costs in two-sided markets

A two-sided market is characterized by contract negotiations, bilateral exchanges between buyers and sellers. Separation costs endow trading partners with monopoly power, rendering this a market of bilateral monopolistic competition. Market equilibrium is defined by these negotiations, a matching of the two sides, and a set of prices; the costs of disagreement are endogenous. A bargaining strategy some players use is commitment to a position. Disagreements are possible and, contrary to the case of bilateral monopoly, these disagreements are not always inefficient.     

Diversification benefits in the smaller European stock markets

This paper examines the diversification benefits available to U.S. and Japanese investors over the period 1974-94 in seven of the smaller European stock markets (SESMs): Austria, Belgium, Greece, Holland, Ireland, Italy, and Spain. With reference to a simplified International CAPM that accommodates both contemporaneous and delayed information flows, we employ correlation, principal components, and cointegration analysis in studying monthly observations from national basket indices. The empirical evidence is conclusive in showing that the SESMs have behaved differently, at least since the October 1987 crash, with stronger contemporaneous interdependencies and integration between them and with the U.S. market. Cointegration analysis found no significant common trend shared between the SESMs and the U.S. and Japanese markets. We conclude that despite the increasing international integration there still exist opportunities for diversification investment in the smaller and less studied European stock markets.The present study is an extensively revised version of a paper presented at the 42nd Atlantic Economic Society Conference in Washington, DC, October 1996. We are indebted to the attendants and discussants of our session, especially Nicholas Apergis, Erotokritos Varelas, and George Zestos for their constructive comments and arguments. We also thank Terence Mills and two anonymous referees for their comments on this paper. Finally, we wish to thank Jay Smith, Leading Market Technologies, Cambridge, MA for providing us theEXPO/NeuralNet andEXPO/Econometrics software used in this study. For any remaining errors, the authors are fully responsible. Raphael Markellos is grateful for financial support received from the Department of Economics and the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Loughborough University, United Kingdom.     

Common trends and common cycles in stock markets

In this paper we examine the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. Our modeling technique involves imposing both common trend and common cycle restrictions in extracting the variance decomposition of shocks. We find that: (1) the three stock price indices are characterized by a common trend and common cycle relationship; and (2) permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock prices over short horizons.     

2002股市十事件

<正> 公司治理心有余而力不足 1月7日,中国证监会以2002年“第一号文件”的形式与国家经贸委联合颁布了《上市公司治理准则》。上市公司治理结构的改进在我国有很强的现实性和针对性。《上市公司治理准则》是我国第一个全面、系统地规范上市公司行为的重要文件,是监管部门规范上市公司治理的又一重要举措,也是我国加入WTO后加快上市公司监管与国际接轨的重要措施。 4月26日,中国证监会、国家经贸委联合发出《关于开展上市公司建立现代企     

Calendar effects in Latin American stock markets

One of the most well-documented empirical regularities in international finance is the presence of calendar effects in historical stock returns. The literature focuses mainly on developed countries, and in general, emerging markets have not received much attention on this issue. We aim to bridge this gap by documenting the existence of significant and robust calendar effects for the main stock markets in Latin America. Upon performing an extreme bounds analysis that adjusts our estimations for model uncertainty, we find a significantly negative Monday effect, generally compensated by a significantly positive Friday effect. These effects are robust to model specification and are stable through time. Even though not as widespread, we also find evidence for a robust turn-of-the-month effect.     

Commodity-driven integration of stock markets in Africa

This article examines stock market integration for commodity-dependent African countries. The analysis is carried out in two phases – first we adjust the respective national equity returns for changes in commodity prices and examine integration in the context of commodity-adjusted stock returns, and second we focus on integration associated with changes in commodity prices in a novel modelling framework. The results for this unexamined area of research are interesting: (a) African stock markets are not driven by more than one common component and (b) commodity-adjusted integration is significantly lower than nonadjusted integration. We discuss the implications of the results for index construction, modelling and diversification in the conclusions.     

Nonlinear dynamics in CEE stock markets indices

We investigate the existence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of the returns of stock markets indices from CEE economies. We use several types of nonlinear tests. We discuss the implications of the results with respect to the efficient market hypothesis.     

Labor adjustment costs and complex eigenvalues

Aggregate variables display both persistence and damped oscillations in response to temporary external shocks. The standard real business cycles (RBC) model cannot explain these patterns, because its stable eigenvalues are positive and real. We demonstrate that this model with labor adjustment costs can yield complex eigenvalues. However, numerical experiments suggest that the model cannot display distinguishable damped oscillations of aggregate variables.     

Transaction costs and informational cascades in financial markets

We study the effect of transaction costs (e.g., a trading fee or a transaction tax, like the Tobin tax) on the aggregation of private information in financial markets. We implement a financial market with sequential trading and transaction costs in the laboratory. According to theory, eventually all traders neglect their private information and abstain from trading (i.e., a no-trade informational cascade occurs). We find that, in the experiment, informational no-trade cascades occur when theory predicts they should (i.e., when the trade imbalance is sufficiently high). At the same time, the proportion of subjects irrationally trading against their private information is smaller than in a financial market without transaction costs. As a result, the overall efficiency of the market is not significantly affected by the presence of transaction costs.     

Investment coordinates in the context of housing and stock markets nexus

This study examines the causal relationship between Chinese housing market (HM) and stock market (SM), using the bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and subsample rolling-window estimation test. The results show that stock price (SP) has both positive and negative impacts on housing price (HP) in several sub-periods, and HP has the same effects on SP. The substitution effect drives their adverse consequences. Meanwhile, the positive effect indicates that SP has a wealth effect on HP, and HP has a credit-price effect on SP. Results provide information to Chinese financial institutions and individual investors for constructing investment portfolios within these asset markets.