Fiscal Consequences of Monetary Integration within a Common Economic Area: The Case of Belarus,Kazakhstan and Russia

This article analyses the possible impact of planned monetary integration on public sector revenue from seigniorage in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Using the concept of total gross seigniorage, we investigate the main sources and uses of the central bank revenue in these countries. Special attention is given to the role of seigniorage revenue in financing public sector expenditure. Amounts of yearly transfers from central banks to the state budget in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia are evaluated, and the size of potential gains and losses in seigniorage revenue under different scenarios of monetary integration are estimated.     

Addressing shortfalls in TIA care in the UK: an economic perspective

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the clinical outcomes and costs associated with reconfiguring the management of TIA in the UK to offer patients rapid access to outpatient clinics for specialist assessment and treatment.

Methods: An economic deterministic model was run comparing two pathways – one arm representing current clinical care based on national guidelines and clinical practice and patient referral to a weekly outpatient clinic, and a revised care pathway replicating phase 2 of the EXPRESS study with patient referral to a daily outpatient clinic. The outcomes of the model were measured in terms of recurrent strokes avoided and net budget impact to secondary care.

Results: Reconfiguring TIA care pathways in the UK could result in the avoidance of 8,164 recurrent stroke events. The model predicts savings of £25,573,279 for the UK healthcare system over 12 months. Annual net savings are predicted in England (£24,916,011), Scotland (£80,554) and Northern Ireland (£1,041,817). In Wales, increased costs of £450,435 are estimated.

Limitations: Using the data published from the EXPRESS study, it is not possible to model a stepwise approach to implementing the revised TIA care pathway. It is therefore assumed that it would be possible to implement the revised TIA care pathway as detailed in the EXPRESS study across the UK and achieve the reduction in recurrent stroke risk that was reported.

Conclusions: The model suggests that the reconfiguration of TIA care pathways in the UK to offer rapid access to treatment and assessment could prevent TIA-related future stroke events and potentially result in cost savings to the healthcare system.     

Healthcare costs associated with nephrology care in pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients

Abstract

Objective:

To compare the healthcare costs of pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients cared for in a nephrology clinic setting versus other care settings.

Methods:

An analysis of health claims between 01/2002 and 09/2007 from the Ingenix Impact Database was conducted. Inclusion criteria were ≥18 years of age, ≥1 ICD-9 claim for CKD, and ≥1 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value of <60?mL/min/1.73?m². Patients were classified in the nephrology care cohort if they were treated in a nephrology clinic setting at least once during the study period. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to compare average annualized healthcare costs of patients in nephrology care versus other care settings.

Results:

Among the 20,135 patients identified for analysis, 1,547 patients were cared for in a nephrology clinic setting. Nephrology care was associated with lower healthcare costs with an unadjusted cost savings of $3,049 ($11,303 vs. $14,352, p?=?0.0014) and a cost ratio of 0.8:1 relative to other care settings. After adjusting for covariates, nephrology care remained associated with lower costs (adjusted cost savings: $2,742, p?=?0.006).

Limitations:

Key limitations included potential inaccuracies of claims data, the lack of control for patients’ ethnicity in the calculation of eGFR values, and the presence of potential biases due to the observational design of the study.

Conclusions:

The current study demonstrated that pre-dialysis CKD patients treated in nephrology clinics were associated with significantly lower healthcare costs compared with patients treated in other healthcare settings.     

The societal impact of pain in the European Union: health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilization

Abstract

Objectives:

This paper reports on the results of a series of quantitative assessments of the association of severe and frequent pain with health-related quality of life and healthcare resource utilization in five European countries.

Methods:

The analysis contrasts the contribution of the increasing severity and frequency of pain reported against respondents reporting no pain in the previous month. The data are taken from the 2008 National Health and Wellness Survey. Single-equation generalized linear regression models are used to evaluate the association of pain with the physical and mental component scores of the SF-12 questionnaire as well as health utilities generated from the SF-6D. In addition, the role of pain is assessed in its association with healthcare provider visits, emergency room visits and hospitalizations.

Results:

The results indicate that the experience of pain, notably severe and frequent pain, is substantial and is significantly associated with the SF-12 physical component scores, health utilities and all aspects of healthcare resource utilization, which far outweighs the role of demographic and socioeconomic variables, health risk factors (in particular body mass index) and the presence of comorbidities. In the case of severe daily pain, the marginal contribution of the SF-12 physical component score is a deficit of ?17.86 compared to those reporting no pain (population average score 46.49), while persons who are morbidly obese report a deficit of only ?6.63 compared to those who are normal weight. The corresponding association with health utilities is equally dramatic with a severe daily pain deficit of ?0.19 compared to those reporting no pain (average population utility 0.71).

Conclusions:

For the five largest EU countries, the societal burden of pain is considerable. The experience of pain far outweighs the contribution of more traditional explanations of HRQoL deficits as well as being the primary factor associated with increased provider visits, emergency room visits and hospitalizations.     

Use of a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model to estimate costs of indigent care in a community at Medicaid reimbursement rates

Objectives: This study used a diagnosis-based risk adjustment model to estimate the annual costs of uninsured patients in Austin, Texas, and describe the prevalence and costs of their chronic conditions. The data were supplied by the Indigent Care Collaboration, a partnership of local safety-net hospitals and clinics.

Methods: This study used the Diagnostic Cost Groups prospective Medicaid All-Encounters model, which uses diagnoses, age and gender to assign relative risk scores to patients. The relative risk scores were multiplied by the per capita Texas Medicaid expenditure to obtain estimated annual costs. Chronic diseases were described in terms of prevalence and total estimated annual cost.

Results: A total of 471,194 encounters were recorded for 163,729 patients meeting the study inclusion criteria between the 1st March 2004 and the 28th February 2005. The mean estimated patient yearly cost was US $1,307, and the total estimated yearly population cost was $228,909,529. The most common chronic conditions included hypertension, diabetes, depression, substance abuse, pregnancy, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and congestive heart failure.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates how the unknown costs associated with caring for indigent uninsured patients in a community can be estimated at Medicaid reimbursement rates using the Diagnostic Cost Group model on aggregated patient encounter data.     

A variable P value rolling Grey forecasting model for Taiwan semiconductor industry production

The semiconductor industry plays an important role in Taiwan's economy. In this paper, we constructed a rolling Grey forecasting model (RGM) to predict Taiwan's annual semiconductor production. The univariate Grey forecasting model (GM) makes forecast of a time series of data without considering possible correlation with any leading indicators. Interestingly, within the RGM there is a constant, P value, which was customarily set to 0.5. We hypothesized that making the P value a variable of time could generate more accurate forecasts. It was expected that the annual semiconductor production in Taiwan should be closely tied with U.S. demand. Hence, we let the P value be determined by the yearly percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP) by U.S. manufacturing industry. This variable P value RGM generated better forecasts than the fixed P value RGM. Nevertheless, the yearly percent change in real GDP by U.S. manufacturing industry is reported after a year ends. It cannot serve as a leading indicator for the same year's U.S. demand. We found out that the correlation between the yearly survey of anticipated industrial production growth rates in Taiwan and the yearly percent changes in real GDP by U.S. manufacturing industry has a correlation coefficient of 0.96. Therefore, we used the former to determine the P value in the RGM, which generated very accurate forecasts.     

Worst-case optimal redistribution of VCG payments in multi-unit auctions

For allocation problems with one or more items, the well-known Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) mechanism (aka Clarke mechanism, Generalized Vickrey Auction) is efficient, strategy-proof, individually rational, and does not incur a deficit. However, it is not (strongly) budget balanced: generally, the agents' payments will sum to more than 0. We study mechanisms that redistribute some of the VCG payments back to the agents, while maintaining the desirable properties of the VCG mechanism. Our objective is to come as close to budget balance as possible in the worst case. For auctions with multiple indistinguishable units in which marginal values are nonincreasing, we derive a mechanism that is optimal in this sense. We also derive an optimal mechanism for the case where we drop the non-deficit requirement. Finally, we show that if marginal values are not required to be nonincreasing, then the original VCG mechanism is worst-case optimal.     

Medical resource utilization and costs among Australian patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C: results of a retrospective observational study

Objective: To evaluate medical resource utilization (MRU) and associated costs among Australian patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C (GT1 CHC), including both untreated patients and those receiving treatment with first-generation protease inhibitor-based regimens (telaprevir, boceprevir with pegylated interferon and ribavirin).

Methods: Medical records were reviewed for a stratified random sample of GT1 CHC patients first attending two liver clinics between 2011–2013 (principal population; PP), supplemented by all GT1 CHC patients attending one transplant clinic in the same period (transplant population; TP). CHC-related MRU and associated costs are reported for the PP by treatment status (treated/not treated) stratified by baseline fibrosis grade; and for the TP for the pre-transplant, year of transplant and post-transplant periods.

Results: A total 1636 patients were screened and 590 patients (36.1%) were included. Comprehensive MRU data were collected for 276 PP patients (F0–1 n?=?59, F2 n?=?58, F3 n?=?53, F4 n?=?106; mean follow-up?=?17.3 months). Thirty-eight (13.8%) were treatment-experienced prior to enrolment; 55 (19.9%) received triple therapy during the study. Data were collected for 112 TP patients (mean follow-up?=?29.9 months), 33 (29.5%) received a transplant during the study, and 51 (45.5%) beforehand. The annual direct medical costs, excluding drug costs, were higher among treated PP vs untreated PP (AU$: $1,954 vs $1,202); and year of transplant TP vs pre-/post-transplant TP (AU$: pre-transplant $32,407, transplant $155,138, post-transplant $7,358).

Limitations: To aid interpretation of results, note that only patients with GT1 CHC who are actively managed are included, and MRU data were collected specifically from liver outpatient clinics. That said, movement of patients between hospitals is rare, and any uncaptured MRU is expected to be minimal.

Conclusions: CHC-related MRU increases substantially with disease severity. These real-world MRU data for GT1 CHC will be valuable in assessing the impact of new hepatitis C treatments.     

Budget impact analysis of adjunctive therapy with lacosamide for partial-onset epileptic seizures in Belgium

Summary

Objective:

This study aims to compute the budget impact of lacosamide, a new adjunctive therapy for partial-onset seizures in epilepsy patients from 16 years of age who are uncontrolled and having previously used at least three anti-epileptic drugs from a Belgian healthcare payer perspective.

Methods:

The budget impact analysis compared the ‘world with lacosamide’ to the ‘world without lacosamide’ and calculated how a change in the mix of anti-epileptic drugs used to treat uncontrolled epilepsy would impact drug spending from 2008 to 2013. Data on the number of patients and on the market shares of anti-epileptic drugs were taken from Belgian sources and from the literature. Unit costs of anti-epileptic drugs originated from Belgian sources. The budget impact was calculated from two scenarios about the market uptake of lacosamide.

Results:

The Belgian target population is expected to increase from 5333 patients in 2008 to 5522 patients in 2013. Assuming that the market share of lacosamide increases linearly over time and is taken evenly from all other anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs), the budget impact of adopting adjunctive therapy with lacosamide increases from €5249 (0.1% of reference drug budget) in 2008 to €242,700 (4.7% of reference drug budget) in 2013. Assuming that 10% of patients use standard AED therapy plus lacosamide, the budget impact of adopting adjunctive therapy with lacosamide is around €800,000–900,000 per year (or 16.7% of the reference drug budget).

Conclusions:

Adjunctive therapy with lacosamide would raise drug spending for this patient population by as much as 16.7% per year. However, this budget impact analysis did not consider the fact that lacosamide reduces costs of seizure management and withdrawal. The literature suggests that, if savings in other healthcare costs are taken into account, adjunctive therapy with lacosamide may be cost saving.     

A cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of apremilast in patients with psoriatic arthritis in Italy

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis, as well as a budget impact analysis, on the use of apremilast for the treatment of adult patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA), within the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Methods: A Markov state transition cohort model, which was adapted to the Italian context, was used to compare the costs of the currently available treatments and of the patients’ quality of life with two alternative treatment sequences, with or without apremilast as pre-biologic therapy. Moreover, a budget impact model was developed based on the population of patients treated for PsA in Italy, who can be eligible for treatment with apremilast. The eligible population was represented by adult patients with PsA who had an inadequate response to or were intolerant to previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), for the approved indication, and for the treatment studied in the economic analytic model.

Results: This cost-effectiveness analysis estimated that the strategy of using apremilast before biologic therapy is cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €32,263.00 per QALY gained which is slightly over the normal threshold found in other Italian economic studies, which usually considers a 40-year-period. Conversely, the budget impact analysis was conducted over 3?years, and it led to an estimated annual saving of €1.6 million, €4.6 million and €5.5 million in the first, second and third year of apremilast commercialization, respectively, for a total saving of €11.75 million in 3?years.

Limitations: Limitations of this analysis include the absence of head-to-head trials comparing therapies included in the economic model, the lack of comparative long-term data on treatment efficacy, and the assumption of complete independence between the considered response rates to therapy.

Conclusion: The use of apremilast as a first option before the use of biologic agents may represent a cost-effective treatment strategy for patients with PsA who fail to respond to, or are intolerant to, previous DMARD therapy. In addition, based on a budget impact perspective, the use of apremilast may lead to cost savings to the Italian healthcare system.     

Amending budget bills in the Russian State Duma

Abstract

Do budget bills change during review in the Russian State Duma? If so, by how much and why? Portrayals of the contemporary Federal Assembly as a ‘rubber stamp’ parliament would suggest that budget initiatives undergo no amendment during the formal period of legislative review. There is, however, evidence of bill change. The article’s primary goal is to present this surprising evidence, focusing on changes to spending figures in the 2002–2016 budget bills. The article also discusses why such changes are made, assessing hypotheses concerning legislator influence, technical updating and intra-executive conflict.     

Optimal accident compensation schemes

This paper considers the way in which accident compensation is offered as insurance against personal injury due to accidents. We begin by setting up a simple microeconomic model in which accident compensation schemes can be studied. Using this model, the accident compensation scheme that maximizes the expected utility of the insured for a given expected outlay of the scheme (that is, for a budget constraint for the insurer) is characterized. We show that, in order for the optimal schedule of indemnities to be increasing (more severe accidents lead to greater compensation) then, contrary to what has been assumed in the literature, the marginal utility of wealth must be decreasing in health. In particular, if the marginal utility of wealth is non-decreasing in health, then an optimal indemnity schedule cannot provide full compensation, in the sense that utility in each state is a constant. Financial support from Secretaría de Estado de Universidades e Investigación del Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia is gratefully acknowledged by F. J. Vázquez.     

Radiation therapy remains the key cost driver of oncology inpatient treatment

Abstract

Objective:

Current radiation therapy capacities in Serbia and most of Eastern Europe are heavily lagging behind population needs. The primary study aim was assessment of direct costs of cancer medical care for patients suffering from cancer with assigned radiotherapy-based treatment protocols. Identification of key cost drivers and trends during 2010–2013 comparing brachytherapy and teleradiotherapy was a secondary objective of the study.

Methods:

Retrospective, bottom-up database analysis was conducted on electronic discharge invoices. Payer’s perspective has been adopted with a 1-year long time horizon. Total sample size was 2544 patients during a 4-years long observation period (2010–2013). The sample consisted of all patients with confirmed malignancy disorder receiving inpatient radiation therapy in a large university hospital.

Results:

Diagnostics and treatment cost of cancer in the largest Western Balkans market of Serbia were heavily dominated by radiation therapy related direct medical costs. Total costs of care as well as mean cost per patient were steadily decreasing due to budget cuts caused by global recession. The paradox is that at the same time the budget share of radiotherapy increased for almost 15% and in value-based terms for €109 per patient (in total €109,330). Second ranked cost drivers were nursing care and imaging diagnostics. Costs of high-tech visualizing examinations were heavily dominated by nuclear medicine tests.

Conclusion:

The budget impact of radiation oncology to the large tertiary care university clinics of the Balkans is likely to remain significant in the future. Brachytherapy exhibited a slow growth pattern, while teleradiotherapy remained stable in terms of value-based turnover of medical services. Upcoming heavy investment into the national network of radiotherapy facilities will emphasize the unsatisfied needs. Huge contemporary budget share of radiotherapy coupled with rising cancer prevalence brings this issue into the hot spot of the ongoing cost containment efforts by local governments.     

A cost–utility analysis of degarelix in the treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer in the United Kingdom

Objective:

To determine the cost-effectiveness of the treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer with degarelix compared to luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) agonists in the UK using the latest available evidence and the model submitted to AWMSG.

Methods:

A cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the UK National Health Service evaluating monthly injection of degarelix against 3-monthly leuprorelin therapy plus anti-androgen flare cover for the first-line treatment of patients with advanced (locally advanced or metastatic) hormone-dependent prostate cancer. A Markov process model was constructed using the patient population characteristics and efficacy information from the CS21 Phase III clinical trial and associated extension study (CS21A). The intention-to-treat (ITT) population and a high-risk sub-group with a PSA level >20?ng/mL were modeled.

Results:

In the base-case analysis using the patient access scheme (PAS) price, degarelix was dominant compared to leuprorelin with cost savings of £3633 in the ITT population and £4310 in the PSA?>?20?ng/mL sub-group. The chance of being cost-effective was 95% in the ITT population and 96% in the PSA?>?20?ng/mL sub-group at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). In addition, degarelix remained dominant when PSA progression was assumed equal and only the benefits of preventing testosterone flare were taken into account. Treatment with degarelix also remained dominant in both populations when the list price was used. The additional investment required to treat patients with degarelix could be offset in 19 months for the ITT population and 13 months for the PSA?>?20?ng/mL population. The model was most sensitive to the hazard ratio assumed for PSA progression between degarelix and leuprorelin and the quality-of-life (utility) of patients receiving palliative care.

Conclusion:

Degarelix is likely to be cost-effective compared to leuprorelin plus anti-androgen flare cover in the first-line treatment of advanced hormone-dependent prostate cancer.     

Preferential Trade Liberalization Under Cournot Competition

Suppose a country imports a homogeneous good from n foreign countries/producers and wants to eliminate tariffs on imports from m < n of them. If foreign producers differ in their marginal costs, which ones will be among the m that are granted free trade? This paper shows, among other things, that under constant marginal cost and fairly general assumptions about demand it will be the least efficient producers.     

More Than You Can Handle: Decentralization and Spending Ability of Peruvian Municipalities

This article builds on a comprehensive dataset for Peru that merges municipal fiscal accounts with information about municipalities’ characteristics such as population, poverty, education, and local politics to analyze the leading factors affecting the ability of municipalities to execute the allocated budget. According to the existing literature and the Peruvian context, we divide these factors into four categories: the budget size and allocation process; local capacity; local needs; and political economy constraints. While we do find that all four factors affect decentralization, the largest determinant of spending ability is the adequacy of the budget with respect to local capacity. The results confirm the need for decentralization to be implemented gradually over time in parallel with strong capacity building efforts.     

A cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of apremilast in patients with psoriasis in the Italian setting

Abstract

Aims: The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis, as well as a budget impact analysis, on the use of apremilast for the treatment of adult patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (defined as a psoriasis area severity index [PASI]?≥?10), who failed to respond to, had a contraindication to, or were intolerant to other systemic therapies, within the Italian National Health Service (NHS).

Materials and methods: A Markov state-transition cohort model adapted to the Italian context was used to compare the costs of the currently available treatments and of the patients’ quality of life with two alternative treatment sequences, with or without apremilast as pre-biologic therapy. Moreover, a budget impact model was developed based on the population of patients treated for psoriasis in Italy, who would be eligible for treatment with apremilast.

Results: Over 5?years, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the strategy of using apremilast before biologic therapy was dominant compared with the sequence of biologic treatments without apremilast. In addition, it is important to underline that the use of apremilast slightly increases the quality-adjusted life years gained over 5?years. Furthermore, within the budget impact analysis, the strategy including apremilast would lead to a saving of €16 million within 3?years. Savings would mainly be related to a reduction in pharmaceutical spending, hospital admissions and other drug administration-related costs.

Conclusion: These models proved to be robust to variation in parameters and it suggested that the use of apremilast would lead to savings to the Italian healthcare system with potential benefits in terms of patients’ quality of life.     

The impact of rheumatoid arthritis on the burden of disease in urban China

Abstract

Objectives:

The aim of this study is to assess the burden of disease associated with the impact of rheumatoid arthritis in urban China. Burden of disease is considered from four perspectives: (i) health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL); (ii) health status; (iii) employment status; and (iv) absenteeism and presenteeism.

Methods:

Data are from the 2009 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS) of urban China. This is an internet-based survey and details the health experience of 13,007 respondents. The survey is representative of the urban China population at 18 years of age and over (18.1% of the total population). Of those responding to the survey, a total of 353 reported that they had been diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis – an unweighted estimate of 2.65%. The sample design allows a comparison of those reporting rheumatoid arthritis with those not reporting this disease and, hence, a quantitative assessment of the burden of disease. Estimates of the quantitative impact of the presence of rheumatoid arthritis are through a series of generalized linear regression models. HRQoL is evaluated through the SF-12 instrument together with responses to the first item of the SF-12, self-reported health status. The SF-12 instrument generates three measures of HRQoL: the physical component summary (PCS), the mental component summary (MCS) and SF-6D utilities. Health status is captured as a self-report on a 5-point scale. Employment status is considered in terms of self-reported labor force participation, while absenteeism and presenteeism are estimated from the Work Productivity Activity Index (WPAI). Apart from a binary variable capturing the presence or absence of rheumatoid arthritis, control variables were included to capture the impact of other potential determinants of HRQoL and health status.

Results:

The presence of rheumatoid arthritis in urban China has a significant deficit impact on HRQoL as measured by the PCS and MCS components of the SF-12, SF-6D absolute utilities and on self-assessed health status. In the case of PCS, the deficit impact of rheumatoid arthritis is ?2.289 (95%CI: ?3.042 to ?1.536); for MCS ?1.472 (95%CI: ?2.338 to ?0.605) and for utilities ?0.025 (95% CI: ?0.036 to ?0.014). In the case of health status the odds ratio for the presence of rheumatoid arthritis is 1.275 (95%CI 1.031–1.576). The presence of rheumatoid arthritis has a marked negative effect, just under 8%, on the likelihood of workforce participation. Finally, the presence of rheumatoid arthritis is associated with an increased likelihood of absenteeism and presenteeism.

Limitations:

The NHWS survey has a number of limitations. As the NHWS is an internet-based survey, biases may be present due to the lack of internet penetration in the urban China population. The extent to which individuals and households have internet access is unknown. In addition, the NHWS relies upon respondents reporting they have been diagnosed with one or more specific disease states. These are not, given the nature of the survey, clinically verified. This also introduces a degree of uncertainty. Care should be taken in uncritically generalizing these results to the wider China population.

Conclusions:

The burden of disease associated with self-reported, diagnosed rheumatoid arthritis in urban China is substantial. Utilizing a series of multivariate models, substantial deficits are associated not only in reported HRQoL and health status but also in respect of employment status and, for those in employment, rates of absenteeism and presenteeism.