Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States

We study the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in the USA using a multivariate time-varying model [1973Q1–2014Q1]. We show that the combination of disaggregation into specific fuels and time variation gives more nuanced results than the alternatives for the USA. Specifically, we find that the Granger causal relationship between total energy and real US GDP is bi-directional through much of the 1990s, but unidirectional running from real US GDP to energy consumption in the 2000s. As for each fuel, similar patterns of change were observed in the causal relationship between coal consumption and real US GDP. Oil consumption largely shows a bi-directional relationship between consumption and US GDP, especially after 2009. And natural gas consumption shows a brief period in the early-to-mid 2000s where US GDP predicts energy consumption, but primarily shows that natural gas consumption and economic growth are independent.     

On the causal nexus of remittances and poverty reduction in Bangladesh

The aim of this article is to investigate the causal relationship between remittances and poverty reduction in Bangladesh over the period 1976 to 2010. This issue is of fundamental importance for the developing economy of Bangladesh. We apply newly developed methods by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006, 2012) that are based on simulations and are robust to the violation of statistical assumptions especially when the sample size is small, as is the case in this article. Our estimation results reveal that causality nexus of poverty and remittances is bi-directional. We also find that the causal impact of poverty reduction on remittance is stronger than the reverse impact. This finding implies that Bangladeshi policy-makers can influence remittances through poverty reduction in the long run.     

长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

采用协整检验和因果检验对长株潭地区金融发展与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究。检验结果表明长株潭地区的贷款增长率与中介效率增长率对经济增长具有正向促进作用,但是中介效率增长率对经济增长的促进作用不显著;贷款增长率与经济增长率之间具有双向因果关系。在实证研究的基础上,提出了相关的结论和建议。     

The relation between capital formation and economic growth: evidence from sub-Saharan African countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between capital formation and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries using recent panel cointegration and causality testing techniques. We find that causality is bi-directional, suggesting that higher economic growth leads to higher capital formation and that in turn, increases in capital formation results in higher economic growth. These results hold irrespective of whether capital formation is measured with private fixed capital formation or by gross capital formation.     

Economic Growth and The Expanding Export Sector: China 1952–1985

In this paper Granger's test is employed to examine the causal relationship between the size of the export sector and national income per capita (as well as their respective growth rates) for China for the period 1952–1985. Our empirical results favour a bi-directional causal sequence between these two variables. However, these findings disappear when a similar test is used for the sub-period 1952–1978. The difference in results between these two sample periods points to a change in causal relation after 1978 which coincides with the adoption of an “outward looking” strategy by the Chinese government in that same year. [124]     

The nexus among foreign investment,domestic capital and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region

The objective of this paper is to estimate an econometric model for analyzing the interrelationship among foreign direct investment, domestic capital and economic growth in 13 MENA countries by using a ‘growth model’ framework and simultaneous-equation models estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM) during the period 1990–2010. Our empirical results show that there is bi-directional causal relationship between foreign investment and economic growth, as well as domestic capital and economic growth, and there is uni-directional causal relationship from foreign direct investment to domestic capital for the region as a whole.     

FDI, services trade and economic growth in India: empirical evidence on causal links

This article examines the linkages between inward FDI, services trade (export and import) and economic output using co-integration and VECM causality test. These linkages have been explored both at the aggregate and at the sectoral levels (manufacturing and services). The empirical findings confirm the long-run relationship among these variables. Causality results indicate the presence of bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and economic output as well as between services exports and economic output. The results also bring out feedback relationship between services export and FDI, reconfirming the presence of complementary relationship between the two. At the sectoral level, we find at least a unidirectional causality from FDI and services exports to both manufacturing and services output and also cross-sectoral spillover effects from manufacturing output to services output and vice versa.     

Government spending and revenues in Sweden 1722–2011: evidence from hidden cointegration

This study examines the long-run causal relationship between government revenues and spending of the Swedish economy over the period 1722–2011. The results based on hidden cointegration technique and a modified version of the Granger non-causality test, show that there exists a long-run and asymmetric relationship between government spending and government revenues. Our estimation results can be summarized into three main empirical findings. First, the government follows a hard budget constraint and soft budget constraint strategies in the case of negative and positive shocks, respectively. Second, negative shocks to the fiscal budget are removed fairly quickly compared to positive shocks. Third, bi-directional causality between revenues and expenditures offers support in favor of the fiscal synchronization hypothesis. The policy implication is that budget deficit’s reduction could be achieved through government spending cut, accompanied by contemporaneous tax controls.     

Insurance activity,real output,and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS

This paper fills some empirical gaps by evaluating the causal associations among insurance premiums, real output, and geopolitical risk in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 1985 to 2017. We utilize a newly-developed Granger-causality quantile analysis to assess the causal relationships among the series under consideration in each distribution quantile. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional causality that runs from real output and geopolitical risk to insurance activities in Brazil and South Africa. We also observe bi-directional lower-tail causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk in Russia. Findings also present bi-directional causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk at different quantiles. Knowledge of these causal relationships can prevent governments from conducting a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy.     

我国能耗和能源密集型产品贸易关系分析

本文使用误差修正技术对我国1997-2007年能源消费和能源密集型产品贸易之间的相互关系进行研究.研究发现,1997-2000年,存在能源密集型产品净进口和煤炭消费间双向因果关系;2001-2007年,存在煤炭消费和能源密集型产品出口间双向因果关系.此结果反映出我国能源密集型产品的贸易结构对能源投入的依赖性,同时说明外国需求拉动可能是加剧我国近年能源消费的一个重要因素.     

A bootstrap-corrected causality test: another look at the money–income relationship

Previous studies of the causal relationship between money supply and real output are based on asymptotic distributions. If the assumption of normality is not fulfilled and if ARCH effects are present, asymptotic distributions perform inaccurately. In this paper, we reinvestigate the potential causal relationship between money and output by applying an alternative methodology based on the leveraged bootstrapped simulation techniques using data from Denmark, Japan, Sweden, and the US. We find unidirectional causality from money to output for the sample countries except for Sweden for which causality is bi-directional. This finding of unidirectional causality between money and output supports monetary business-cycle models and reveals one important policy implication—that is, in looking for the sources of output fluctuations, money might be a major factor.

The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach

The purpose of this article is to examine the export–output nexus in Japan by taking into account the time variation in the causal link with bootstrap Granger non-causality test and rolling estimation. The data used cover the seasonally adjusted real export and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 1957:1–2009:1 period. Standard Granger causality tests indicate no causality between export and real GDP series. On the contrary, full sample-modified Granger causality tests based on bootstrap, which are applicable irrespective of integration–cointegration properties of the data, indicate a bi-directional causal link between exports and real GDP. Accordingly, export growth should be an important factor behind Japan’s high-economic growth in the last three decades. Using parameter stability tests, we show that these results are not uniform for different sample periods and results vary due to structural changes. Using bootstrap rolling window estimation, we find that there is a positive bi-directional predictive power from the mid 1970s to the late-1980s between the series, while from the late 1990s to 2009 there is a positive predictive power only from export growth to output growth.     

中国粮食价格与CPI的关系(1996—2008)——基于非线性关联积分的因果检验

当前,中国特色的市场化道路步入了发展的快车道,粮食市场与宏观经济的相互关系也表现得更为复杂。本文尝试引入一种不基于任何函数关系假定前提的非线性检验模型,对1996—2008年间中国粮食价格与CPI的关系进行检验和解释,以期更为准确地理解和阐释两者之间的关系,为制定宏观经济政策,实现国家宏观调控目标,提供可资借鉴与参考的理论解释。本文的检验结果表明,中国粮食价格和CPI之间存在双向因果关系,但在时效和强度上存在较大差异。CPI对粮食价格有半年左右的显著影响,粮食价格对CPI仅表现为滞后1个月的短期效应。最后在给出理论解释的基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

Museum and monument attendance and tourism flow: a time series analysis approach

This article takes a time-series analysis approach to evaluate the directions of causality between tourism flows, on the one side, and museum and monument attendance, on the other. We consider Italy as a case study, and analyse monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2010. All the considered series are seasonally integrated, and co-integration links emerge. We focus on the error-correction mechanism among co-integrated time series to detect the directional link(s) of causality. Clear-cut results emerge: bi-directional causality exists in the long-run dynamics, but it is the long-run dynamics of visits to museums and monuments that mainly adjust to tourism variables (arrivals, overnights, average stays). In the short run, there are some causal effects going from the cultural sites’ attendance to tourism dynamics. The nonstationary nature of time series, their co-integration relationships and the direction of causal links suggest specific implications for tourism and cultural policies.     

Testing the causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base

An important factor that helps distinguish between alternative balance of payments theories is the assumed causal relationship between the domestic credit and reserve components of a country's monetary base. This paper reports test results of this causal relationship in Australia, Belgium, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. Three causal detection methods are used: the Haugh test, the Granger test, and the Sims test. Two conclusions are drawn. First, the causal relationship does not run undirectionally from domestic credit to reserves as the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments and many tests of that approach assume. Second, the results are quite robust across alternative causality tests.     

FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE TWIN DEFICITS

In a 1989 Contemporary Policy Issues article Miller and Russek published findings of a causal relation between the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit. However, they found no overwhelming support for reverse causation between the twin deficits. The authors of the analysis here gathered annual data on U.S. federal budget deficits and net exports for 1950–1988 and deflated the nominal values by the GDP deflators to examine the causal relation based on real values. They made a distinction between structural and actual budget deficits. Instead of an arbitrary choice of lag structure, they used Hsiao (1979, 1981) minimum final prediction error criterion to determine the optimum lag lengths of the explanatory variables. The analysis reveals a unidirectional causal relation running from structural budget deficits to net exports, confirming some of Miller and Russek's findings. Contrary to Miller and Russek's conclusions, however, findings here indicate a bi-directional causal relation between actual budget deficits and net exports. These findings suggest important policy implications.     

The Tale of Three Amigos: Remittances, Exchange Rates, and Money Demand in Mexico

The author analyzes the relationship between remittances, exchange rates, and money demand in Mexico. He finds that shocks to remittances have a positive impact on domestic money demand. The results also suggest the existence of a bi-directional relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. Furthermore, positive shocks to remittances are found to have a negative impact on Mexico's real exchange rate. This indicates that remittances appreciate the Mexican peso and therefore may impact on the competitiveness of the tradable sector negatively.     

Causality patterns for Brent,WTI, and Argus oil prices

Causality patterns are analysed for daily Brent, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and Argus Sour Crude Index (Argus) oil prices, Argus is the reference price for exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Nonparametric Granger causality testing uncovers bi-directional causal links between Brent and WTI prices at multiple lags. Unidirectional causality from both Brent to Argus and WTI to Argus is also documented. If the current Saudi Arabia attempt to increase market share is successful, variations in Argus prices may start preceding movements in Brent and WTI, also.     

不确定性容忍度、决策逻辑与突破式创新关系研究

以位于武汉市产业园、孵化器、创业园等多家公司的255位产品开发及技术研发人员、市场开发人员为有效样本,采用层级回归方法探讨不确定性容忍度、决策逻辑与突破式创新的关系。结果表明:不确定性容忍度与突破式创新显著正相关;不确定性容忍度与因果逻辑显著负相关,与效果逻辑显著正相关;突破式创新与因果逻辑显著负相关,与效果逻辑显著正相关;因果/效果决策在不确定性容忍度与突破式创新关系中发挥部分中介作用;不确定性容忍度正向调节效果逻辑与突破式创新的关系,对因果逻辑与突破式创新的关系没有显著调节作用。研究结论对企业创新管理实践具有重要指导价值。     

中国棉花期货和现货市场的价格关系研究

期货市场和现货市场之间的价格发现功能一直是监管部门和投资者十分关心的问题。本文借助信息共享模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等方法,对中国棉花的期、现货市场间的价格关系进行实证研究,定量刻划了期、现货市场在价格发现中的作用。研究结果表明:棉花期、现货价格之间存在显著的双向引导关系;二者存在长期均衡关系;期、现货市场都扮演重要的价格发现角色,期货市场在价格发现中处于主导地位。