A test for the too-big-to-fail hypothesis for European banks during the financial crisis

Motivated by the theoretical prediction of the opportunistic behaviour of large banks that face expected public intervention, we test a full and a partial form of the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) hypothesis. The full form of the hypothesis implies the increase in the risk undertakings and profitability of banks that exceed a certain dimension; the partial form of the hypothesis implies only an augmented risk appetite of large banks compared to their smaller counterparts. The examined area is the European banking industry, whose behaviour is observed over the first wave of the present financial crisis (2007/09). The estimation of a quadratic fit that links change in a bank’s credit risk profile and profitability retention rates with a bank’s size suggests the existence of a partial form of the TBTF hypothesis. However, a more precise, local rolling windows estimation of the size sensitivities reveals that large banks – those whose liabilities exceed approximately 2% of the country of origin’s GDP (15% of our sample) – show an increase in credit risk profile and a superior capability of retaining higher ROA scores, vis-à-vis their smaller counterparts. With the caveats of our investigation, we interpret these results as evidence of a full form of the TBTF hypothesis.     

Risk aversion,exchange‐rate uncertainty,and the law of one price: insights from the market for online air‐travel tickets

Abstract We argue that risk aversion driven by exchange‐rate uncertainty causes a wedge between the domestic and foreign prices of a homogeneous good. We test our hypothesis using a unique micro‐data set from a market with minimum imperfections. The empirical findings validate our hypothesis, as accounting for exchange‐rate uncertainty we are able to explain a significant proportion of deviations from the law of one price. Overall, our analysis suggests the possibility of a new solution to the purchasing power parity puzzles.     

A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic.     

WOULD AUSTRALIA–NEW ZEALAND BE A VIABLE CURRENCY UNION? EVIDENCE FROM INTERSTATE RISK‐SHARING PERFORMANCES

In this article, we first measure the potential welfare gains from perfect risk sharing among Australian states and New Zealand regions under possible unification. We show that New Zealand regions reap moderate gains from perfect risk sharing when they form a union with Australia, whereas for Australian states, the gains are somewhat similar to what they have attained at the intranational level. Second, we measure the extent of interstate risk sharing and intertemporal smoothing between the two countries. We are able to observe a substantial degree of intertemporal smoothing among Australian states and New Zealand regions, either alone or jointly, thus confirming the permanent income hypothesis. Further, unique to the risk‐sharing literature, we decompose the aggregate (nondiversifiable) output shocks into positive and negative components, in order to assess the strength of risk‐sharing mechanisms across business cycles. The study finds a virtual absence of risk sharing when Australia and New Zealand face negative aggregate fluctuations, raising doubts about the feasibility of the union, particularly during economic downturns. (JEL F41, F36)     

Experimental tests of the Somatic Marker hypothesis

Damasio's [Descarte's Error: Emotion, Rationality and the Human Brain. Putnam (Grosset Books), New York, 1994] Somatic Marker hypothesis posits that emotion-generated mental markers influence our decisions and, in particular, tend to curb inherent tendencies to seek risk, to be impatient and to be callous in social situations. Ventromedial (VM) prefrontal cortex damage interferes with this marking process, resulting in risk seeking behavior, impatience and socially inappropriate behavior. In the present study, we present 27 normal controls and 17 patients with prefrontal cortex lesions with batteries of questions designed to probe their attitudes toward risk, intertemporal preferences and behavior in social contexts. The results demonstrate that VM patients are no more risk seeking, impatient, or prone to behavior in socially inappropriate manners than normal subjects. Indeed, we find no significant differences of any sort between the two groups of subjects on any the dimensions investigated. We discuss why VM cortex damage in humans appears to influence decisions in certain circumstances but not in others.     

Risk forecasting models and optimal portfolio selection

This study analyses, from an investor's perspective, the performance of several risk forecasting models in obtaining optimal portfolios. The plausibility of the homoscedastic hypothesis implied in the classical Markowitz model is dicussed and more general models which take into account assymetry and time varying risk are analysed. Specifically, it studies whether ARCH-type based models obtain portfolios whose risk-adjusted returns exceed those of the classical Markowitz model. The same analysis is performed with models based on the Lower Partial Moment (LPM) which take into account the assymetry in the distribution of returns. The results suggest that none of the models achieve a clearly superior average performance. It is also found that models based on semivariance perform as well as those based on the variance, but not better than, even if the evaluation criterion is based on the Reward-to-Semivariance ratio. When attention turns to the analysis of worst case performance, the results are clearly different. Models which employ LPM with a high degree of risk aversion (n>2) as the risk measure are consistently superior to those which employ a symmetric measure, either homoscedastic or heteroscedastic.     

MARKET DISCIPLINING OF THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES' SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENTS

In this article, we contribute to the current literature on market disciplining of the sovereign governments of the developing countries by distinguishing both sides of the market discipline hypothesis by adopting three‐stage least square estimation to incorporate the contemporaneous feedback effects between primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premiums. We provide empirical evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship between a country's default‐risk premium and primary structural budget balances with the direction flowing from primary structural budget balances to country's risk premium in 40 developing countries over the period 1975–2008. We also employ the Arellano‐Bond dynamic panel generalized methods of moments estimation to control for this joint determination of primary structural budget balances and the country's default‐risk premium, and find supportive evidence of undisciplined sovereign governments and of nonlinearly behaving well‐functioning financial markets in the sample countries. (JEL C5, G1, G3)     

The Role of Industry Effects in Simultaneous Reversal and Momentum Patterns in One-Month Stock Returns

When stocks are ranked by returns in one month, the portfolio of loser stocks tends to outperform the portfolio of winner stocks in the subsequent month. Yet industry portfolios tend to display momentum. We develop a model of information diffusion among agents with constrained information processing ability that reconciles these well-documented phenomena. We test whether this model or the overreaction hypothesis is consistent with the data. Additionally, a trading strategy based on the model outperforms strategies based on overreaction and on industry momentum. The strategy produces abnormal returns while controlling for market–risk and the size, book value, January, momentum, and liquidity effects.     

The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate

The hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been rejected in many empirical studies. The rejection of this hypothesis could occur because market behavior is inconsistent with rational–expectations or because there exists a risk premium. Equations describing the forward premium and the change in the exchange rate are estimated jointly, and tests of both the rational–expectations and no–risk–premium hypotheses are conducted. Empirical estimates, obtained using quarterly data for the yen–dollar exchange rate, reject the rational–expectations hypothesis and suggest that there exists a time–varying risk premium.     

The Theory of Differential Overqualification: Does it Work?

The theory of differential overqualification, developed by Robert Frank (1978),claims that married women in smaller labour markets have a higher risk of workingin jobs for which they are overqualified. This stems from the problem of dual jobsearch for couples which is much more difficult to optimize than single job search.Here, for several reasons husbands tend to first optimize their individual job search.Their wives are `tied movers' or `tied stayers' in the sense that their job search isundertaken under the condition that the job search of their husbands is optimized.This leads especially in smaller labour markets to a higher risk of a mismatchbetween formal qualifications and job requirements. The only specific empiricaltest of this theory, until now, has been performed by McGoldrick and Robst (1996) . Their results, using US data, do not support the theory. Using Germanpanel data (GSOEP), we also test the theory of differential overqualification.Unlike previous studies we control for commuting distances and our own resultsprovide some mixed support for the differential overqualification hypothesis.     

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy: some evidence from Asian countries

This article outlines a panel data approach to modelling the term structure of interest rates in the short and in the long run. We find robust evidence supporting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) for a small sample of Asian emerging markets. Furthermore, we detect some relevant differences in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and the existence of a McCallum (2005) rule (no exogeneity of monetary policy to the yield curve) in some countries. Finally, we document the influence of an international global factor (i.e. a time-varying global risk premium) on the yield curve, while local country-specific factors are not statistically significant.     

Canadian and U.S. financial markets: testing the international integration hypothesis under time‐varying conditional volatility

Abstract.  This paper evaluates the international integration hypothesis, that is, that risk‐adjusted anticipated returns are identical, even when financial instruments are traded in different countries. Under time‐varying conditional volatility, this hypothesis is tested by verifying the equality between domestic and foreign risk prices associated with a multi‐factor analytic specification. The maximum‐likelihood and Kalman‐filter estimates are used to assess the national risk prices and interpret the factors. Empirically, the integration of Canadian and U.S. financial markets depends on the risk prices of two factors, which are related to certain non‐monetary events and to the conduct of monetary policies. JEL classification: G15, C32     

Long-term technological development in commercial aircraft

Sahal tested two hypothesis in his initial investigation of long-term technological development. These two hypothesis are learning by doing and scale of utilization. Sahal framed both hypothesis in a derived Gompertz form. He subsequently suggested the use of the Koyck form for the learning hypothesis, as well. He did not use it, however, because of relatively untractable correction difficulties that arise when estimating with it. This study refines Sahal's methodology and investigative procedure. It significantly fails to empirically disconfirm either long-term hypothesis in both the Gompertz and Koyck form. This is a result that, generally speaking, Sahal's work did not achieve. The artifacts the long-term technological development of which this study investigates are the commercial aircraft of what basically constitutes the old domestic trunk organization and the diesel-electric rail locomotives of the Class I roads. Upon establishing the explanatory significance of Sahal's hypothesis, this study generates acceptable forecasts of further technological development. Finally, this study compares learning's impact on the pace of technological change of both aircraft and diesel-electric locomotive technology. The methodology and procedure employed in this study, although possibly limited in application, substantially refine and improve Sahal's previous effort.     

Innovation,externalities, and the state: a synergetic approach

A politicoeconomic model dealing with the interaction of private innovation and public regulation is presented. Causes and effects of this interdependence are investigated with special regard to the externalities which accompany innovations and make them into a partly public good. Our main hypothesis is that the collective character of inventive activity gives rise to synergetic effects. This hypothesis is supported by a microfoundation based on a nonlinear Markov process. Furthermore, the consequences of such synergetic innovation processes are examined: persistent disequilibrium, multiple equilibria, lock-in, path dependence, and chaos. Finally, some policy implications are derived concerning the effects of ageneral public promotion of innovations and of aselective industrial policy.     

An extension of the Tiebout hypothesis of voting with one’s feet: the Medicaid magnet hypothesis

This study empirically extends the Tiebout hypothesis of ‘voting with one’s feet’ in two ways. First, it provides updated estimates using net migration data for the period 2000–2008. Second, in addition to investigating variables reflecting public education outlays, property taxation and income taxation, it investigates whether migrants are attracted to states with higher Medicaid benefits per recipient. The latter hypothesis is referred to as the ‘Medicaid magnet hypothesis’. The analysis includes three economic variables, three quality of life variables and three Tiebout-type factors in addition to Medicaid benefits. Results indicate that consumer voters were attracted to states with higher per pupil public school spending, lower property and income tax rates, and that certain consumer-voters may be attracted to states that offer higher levels of Medicaid benefits.     

A failed attempt to explain within subject variation in risk taking behavior using domain specific risk attitudes

Previous research has found considerable variation in risk taking behavior within individuals across tasks. In this paper, we develop a hypothesis derived from the psychology literature that such apparently inconsistent behavior can be explained by a subject's domain specific risk attitudes. To test our hypothesis, we conducted a laboratory study using multiple paid risk elicitation tasks and a risk attitude survey. Consistent with previous research, our results indicated considerable within subject variation in behavior across tasks. However, we found little support for the hypothesis that this variation can be explained by domain specific risk attitudes.     

Correct cointegration tests of the long-run relationship between nominal interest and inflation

The Fisher (1930) hypothesis suggests that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the non-stationary series: nominal interest and expected inflation. Testing such a cointegrating relationship is complicated by the presence of the unobserved ex antereal rate of interest in residuals from the cointegrating regression. Assumptions concerning the stochastic properties of the expected real rate of interest are examined, and two proxies for the ex antereal rate are employed in multivariate cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis.     

Cooperation in a risky world

We offer a novel investigation of the effect of environmental risk on cooperation in the Voluntary Contribution Mechanism. Our baseline is the standard setting, in which the personal return from the public good is deterministic, homogeneous, and publicly known. Our experimental treatments alter this classic design by making the marginal per capita return from the public good probabilistic. In the homogeneous risk (HomR) treatment, the random draw is made for the whole group, whereas in the heterogeneous risk (HetR) treatment, this happens independently for each group member. Our hypothesis is that different environmental risks may differently affect the ex post payoff inequalities, so that other‐regarding preferences (inequality aversion) may generate higher contributions in HomR than in HetR. Our main result is that the environmental risk does not affect the patterns of cooperation either in the one‐shot or in the finitely repeated version of the game. This suggests that the standard experimental methodology provides a robust and conservative measure of human cooperation.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF COMMITTEE ASSIGNMENT: HEALTH CARE INDUSTRY POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE CONTRIBUTIONS AND THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

This paper examines the relationship between political action committee (PAC) contributions from four sectors of the health care industry and committee membership in the House of Representatives over three election cycles, 1998–2002. The hypothesis tested is that members of the House who serve on committees with oversight responsibility for the health care industry are more likely to receive contributions from health care industry PACs than members of the House who do not serve on these committees. We find mixed support for the hypothesis. (JEL D72, HI0, I10)     

Expectations and interest rates on mortgage loans

We examine the role of expectations for interest rates on mortgage loans. Our empirical results, based on cointegration tests, indicate a violation of the expectations hypothesis on the German loan market. In contrast to the capital market, a failure of the expectations hypothesis on the loan market cannot be attributed to the market segmentation hypothesis. Using a simple two-period model, we can show that the deviation from the expectations hypothesis is stronger than on the capital market and such that it confirms the common practice of choosing between loans with variable or fixed interest rates.An earlier version was presented at the annual meeting of theVerein für Socialpolitik 1994. We are grateful to Jürgen Wolters and an anonymous referee for their useful comments and suggestions.