Competition and innovation: an experimental investigation

The paper analyzes the effects of more intense competition on firms’ investments in process innovations. More intense competition corresponds to an increase in the number of firms or a switch from Cournot to Bertrand competition. We carry out experiments for two-stage games, where R&D investment choices are followed by product market competition. An increase in the number of firms from two to four reduces investments, whereas a switch from Cournot to Bertrand increases investments, even though theory predicts a negative effect in the four-player case. The results arise both in treatments in which both stages are implemented and in treatments in which only one stage is implemented. However, the positive effect of moving from Cournot to Bertrand competition is more pronounced in the former case.     

An empirical investigation of interregional production relations and comparative advantage in US manufacturing, 1960–70

Hypothesized differences in mean changes in shares of European Community (EC) import markets over the period 1976-84 are tested for each of 36 less-developed countries. Means are calculated for cases in which MFN tariffs are re-established and for cases in which duty-free treatment is restored under the EC generalized system of preferences. They are compared with means for cases in which tariffs remained constant. We attempt to control for both product-specific and cyclical influences on imports. In contrast to some previous results, our findings suggest that denial (restoration) of preferential treatment, i.e. a tariff increase (decrease), has its expected negative (positive) effect.     

Commodity market stabilisation and ‘North-South’ income transfers: An empirical investigation

Commodity stabilisation agreements have often been suggested as a means of stabilising producers' revenues and redistrubuting productive resources to less developed economies (from ‘North’ to ‘South’). But no empirical estimates of how much may be expected from such agreements, nor of what they would cost to operate, have appeared. This paper examines, in the context of one market, how far prices can be stabilised by buffer stock interventions. the costs of that stabilisation, and whether any redistribution would be achieved. We find pure stabilisation leads to transfers away from the South, and that supply restrictions which force redistribution are extremely expensive. However, it is relatively cheap to protect producers on the South against the uncertainty of future revenues.     

How do oil price forecast errors impact inflation forecast errors? An empirical analysis from US,French and UK inflation forecasts

This paper proposes an empirical investigation of the impact of oil price forecast errors on inflation forecast errors for three different sets of recent forecast data: the median of SPF inflation forecasts for the United States and the Central Bank inflation forecasts for France and the United Kingdom. Mainly two salient points emerge from our results. First, there is a significant contribution of oil price forecast errors to the explanation of inflation forecast errors, whatever the country or the period considered. Second, the pass-through of oil price forecast errors to inflation forecast errors is typically multiplied by around 2 when the oil price volatility is large.     

Financialization and commodity prices – an empirical analysis for coffee,cotton, wheat and oil

Commodity prices have crucial implications for developing countries. The question whether the financialization of commodity derivative markets has contributed to high and volatile commodity prices has been controversially debated. Building on limitations in the empirical literature, we estimate a multivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to assess the effect of different groups of financial investors (index investors and money managers) as well as fundamental and macroeconomic variables on the prices of coffee, cotton, wheat and oil. We find that, in contrast to index investors, money managers’ net long positions have a large statistically significant effect on commodity prices. This calls for policy interventions as commodity derivative markets may cease to perform their fundamental developmental roles.     

Verdoorn’s law and productivity dynamics: An empirical investigation into the demand and supply approaches

According to Verdoorn’s law, productivity growth is endogenous to output growth, due to the existence of increasing returns to scale, broadly defined. Such an idea is at the root of both the endogenous growth theory and the Kaldorian approach. While in Kaldor’s view, a country’s growth is demand-driven, in the endogenous growth theory, growth is determined by the growth of the factors of production and hence growth is supply-constrained. This article empirically tests both assumptions for Verdoorn’s law by using a dynamic panel of manufacturing industries for seventy countries at different stages of development for the years between 1963 and 2009. In order to distinguish between these approaches, two different specifications are estimated where the growth of output and the supply of factors of production are instrumentalized by system generalized method of moments (GMM)estimators. The results show that, if it is assumed that the growth rates of countries are demand-driven, a faster growth of output increases productivity growth due to the existence of increasing returns. Alternatively, if it is assumed that output growth is driven by the growth of the supply of the factors of production, it is not possible to conclude that productivity growth is induced by output growth.     

The ‘trendiness’ of sleep: an empirical investigation into the cyclical nature of sleep time

Using Canadian time use data, we exploit variation in local unemployment rates to investigate the cyclical nature of sleep time and show that for both men and women, sleep time decreases when the economy is doing relatively better. Our results suggest that in a recession Canadians sleep an average of 3 h more per week, or 26?min more per day. Given the importance of even small changes in sleep time on measures of cognitive functioning such as reaction time and concentration, our findings may help explain the countercyclical nature of mortality. Further, as we find that sleep is affected by the same economic variables (notably the unemployment rate) that affect market work time, our results also contribute to the limited literature that shows that sleep time should not be treated as exogenously determined, but, like any other resource, determined by its relative cost.     

On designers’ use of biomimicry tools during the new product development process: an empirical investigation

As technological problems and societal challenges become increasingly complex, designers are urged to recombine knowledge from different sources in order to innovate. In this article we question how nature may be the key source of inspiration and whether it can impact the new product development (NPD) process. We shed new light on whether designers and researchers are: first, familiar with biomimicry tools; second, aware of their characteristics; third, in favour of using biomimicry tools in the NPD process; and fourth, able to assess the impact of biomimicry tools on the NPD performance. By analysing survey data, counterintuitive results emerged concerning both the awareness of the biomimetic tools and their impact on the NPD innovation outcomes.     

Inflation,inflation uncertainty and growth: Are they related?

We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1) There is significant evidence for the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation supporting the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis. (2) There is mixed evidence on the causal effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty. (3) There is strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is not detrimental to output growth.     

Euro,crisis and unemployment: Youth patterns,youth policies?

This paper examines the occurrence of structural breaks in European unemployment associated with major institutional events. We uncover different responses of adult and youth unemployment rates. While adult unemployment is more prone to experience structural breaks, youth unemployment is more sensitive to business cycle oscillations, especially in the recent crisis. This calls for fine tuning policy measures specifically targeted to youth unemployed in bad times. One important implication of our findings is that generic labour market reforms are not effective enough to solve the youth unemployment problem. Educational policies raising average qualifications and helping school-to-work transitions are suitable complementary cures.     

Analysis on inbound tourists＇ satisfaction in China： an empirical study based on the investigation of 5 cities

In China, the tourism industry is regarded as one means of fostering local economic development. This paper tries to examine inbound tourism development in China in the last decade and analyze inbound tourism＇s satisfaction of their travel experience with tourist attractions, facilities, services and price by an empirical study based on the investigation of Lanzhou, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. This paper discusses the demographic characteristics of visitors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, US. Korea and Japan by surveying a .sample of 528 visitors in five different cities. The survey showed that four provinces/autonomous region in western China ranked the top 10 popular destinations. Chinese natural landscape, culture and food were highly regarded by the tourists. At the same time, tourists expressed less satisfaction with tourist language convenience, tourist facility and nightlife in China. It was also found that only 7.4% of the tourists thought travel in China was far more than what they had paid, that 6.5% regarded they got what they paid for, and that 34.9% thought the travel cost was reasonable. Most tourists were satisfied with their travel experience in China： many of them would like to return to China and would like to recommend China. For the sustainable development of tourism, Chinese tourism authorities should strengthen the construction, propaganda and management of scenic spots, improve tourist facility and tourist education. especially language convenience, and strengthen the supervision of tickets, souvenir and hotel price.     

Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005

This paper examines the emergence of manufacturing in developing countries in the period 1950–2005. It presents new data on structural change in a sample of 67 developing countries and 21 advanced economies. The paper examines the theoretical and empirical evidence for the proposition that industrialisation acts as an engine of growth in developing countries and attempts to quantify different aspects of this debate. The statistical evidence is not completely straightforward. Manufacturing has been important for growth in developing countries, but not all expectations of the ‘engine of growth hypothesis’ are borne out by the data. The more general historical evidence provides more support for the industrialisation thesis.     

Fertility choice,mortality expectations,and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis

We investigate the empirical relationship between child mortality and fertility across 46 low and middle income countries. Specifically, we model the effect of mortality expectations and interdependent fertility preferences on fertility. The direct marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility is larger than zero but less than unity. This implies that a decrease in mortality rates leads to a decrease in children born but to an increase in the number of surviving children and hence the rate of population growth. Taking into account interdependent fertility preferences, whereby an individual's fertility choice affects the fertility decisions of others, the marginal effect of mortality expectations on fertility becomes one. Hence, if we allow for both mortality expectations and the amplifying effect of interdependent fertility preferences, a decrease in child mortality has no net effect on the rate of population growth.     

Anti-poverty competences in a multilevel government: an empirical analysis of citizens’ preferences in Europe

This article aims to investigate individuals’ perceptions about institutions that should be primarily responsible for reducing or preventing poverty, which is a dramatic phenomenon that became a crucial issue in European countries over recent years. We propose an empirical analysis based on European survey data and investigate some citizens’-level and country-level variables that potentially affect individuals’ attitudes. Our results suggest that country-level economic and institutional characteristics do significantly affect individual preferences for the governance of anti-poverty policies.     

Light fuel demand and public policies in Brazil, 2003–2013

The main objective of this article is to evaluate determinants of demand for light fuels in Brazil between 2003 and 2013. Through a vector autoregression analysis, an effort was made to identify and quantify the impact of different economic variables and public policy measures adopted during this period on the surprising increase in energy consumption by Brazil’s light-vehicle fleet. The results suggest that demand for energy by the light-vehicle fleet was influenced by an increase in income, by a decrease in fuel prices associated with a policy designed to prevent increases in the price of gasoline from pushing the inflation rate up, by a higher availability of credit for buying vehicles, and by a drop in the real price of those goods, with emphasis on countercyclical measures to waive the tax on industrialized products levied on new vehicles during economic downturns in the automotive industry.     

LDC stabilization policies,price and output adjustment: theory and evidence, 1974–83

This paper introduces a method for the analysis of regional differences in the utilization of labour resources. The method developed is a version of ‘components-of-change’ analysis in which labour force utilization in each regional labour market is compared with the sitation of a labour market with the highest level of utilization. The aggregate measure is split up into three components: open (registered) unemployment, hidden unemployment and underemployment. The effects of structural factors on aggregate differences are also estimated. In the empirical section the situation of Finnish provinces in 1989 is analysed within the framework developed. The results indicated the existence of large regional differences in the utilization of labour resources.     

Pitfalls in estimating β-convergence by means of panel data: an empirical test

This article aims to test the conjecture advanced in a recent work by Bianchi and Menegatti (Appl Econ Lett 14:963–967, 2007) that usual β-convergence panel regressions may produce biased evidence, due to their inability to distinguish between actual catching-up across countries and decreasing growth rates over time within countries. The test considers different sub-groups in a dataset of 72 countries for the period 1970–2000 and introduces both human capital and proxies for technological differences into the analysis. The results confirm the conjecture that traditional evidence about β-convergence may be misleading; they also show that catching-up across countries is weaker than usually claimed and that this process occurred only in some sub-groups of countries.     

Top Incomes in Chile: A Historical Perspective on Income Inequality, 1964–2017

We present a novel series of Chilean top-income shares covering half a century, mainly based on income-tax declarations and the National Accounts. Such a time frame of analysis is still rare in the literature of developing countries. We distinguish between a fiscal-income series (1964–2017) and an adjusted series (1990–2017). The former covers individual income, while the latter also includes corporate undistributed profits, which affects both levels and trends. The fiscal-income estimates start with low levels and a decreasing trend over the 1960s. They then increase rapidly during the dictatorship years (1973–89). The series ends with a high, yet slowly decreasing, concentration for most of the recent democratic period (1990–2017). By contrast, the adjusted series has followed a U-shape since the return of democracy, contradicting the established consensus on falling inequality over the period. Furthermore, Chile ranks among the most unequal countries in both the OECD and Latin American countries over the period.     

Expected utility theory and experimental utility measurement, 1950–1985. From confidence to scepticism

Abstract

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the EUT-based measurement of utility of the 1950s to the scepticism that, from the mid-1970s, haunted the validity of EUT as well as the significance of the utility measures obtained through it. By exploring the diverse aspects and causes of this trajectory, the paper covers new ground in the history of both decision theory and utility measurement.