Can We Meaningfully Speak of Changes in Price under the Regime of Changes in Techniques?

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation exercise on Sraffa's system under various types of technical changes to show that the direction of changes in prices of commodities is contingent on the choice of the numeraire. Thus, such a comparison of prices in two systems turns out to be meaningless. This result points to the arbitrary nature of the neoclassical supply functions, as they inevitably compare prices across several Sraffa systems on the basis of an arbitrarily chosen numeraire. We anticipated such a result from our reading of Sraffa as part of his ‘prelude to a critique of economic theory’.     

Numeraire choice in normalized quadratic functional forms

A semi-nested test procedure is developed for choosing the numeraire for a normalized quadratic profit function when too few observations exist for nested hypothesis testing and when too many alternatives exis for conventional non-nested testing. Sensitivity of empirical results to choice of numeraire price is examined using agricultural data for the US and ten multistate regions. Few test conclusions vary by numeraire but own price input demand elasticities differ greatly.     

ROBUST ESTIMATIONS OF EQUILIBRIUM EXCHANGE RATES WITHIN THE G20: A PANEL BEER APPROACH

This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of estimating the equilibrium equation on one single panel covering G20 countries, or separately for G7 and non-G7 countries. Third, we measure the influence of the choice of the numeraire on the derivation of bilateral equilibrium rates. Finally, we study the temporal robustness of the estimations by dropping one or 2 years from the estimation period. Our main conclusion is that BEER estimations are quite robust to these successive tests, although at one point of time misalignments can differ by several percentage points depending on the methodology. The choice of the productivity proxy is the most sensible one, followed by the country sample. In contrast, the choice of the numeraire and the time sample have a relatively limited impact on estimated misalignments.     

Location,location, location: currency effects and return predictability?

Most international financial market studies that compare across countries utilize the US dollar as the common numeraire. We explore the little studied question of the appropriate choice for the base currency and ask if currency choice can affect the final conclusion of whether predictability exists. We provide empirical results for stock return predictability that demonstrate the importance of the numeraire. For example, the existence (absence) of predictability for a US investor does not necessarily imply the existence (absence) of predictability for other foreign investors.     

Sraffa numeraire and reswitching: A note A note

The paper demonstrates that changing the numeraire from Hicks' to Sraffa's does not affect the location and, a fortiori, the number of switch points between two given techniques. This negates some recent claims to the contrary, and supports the earlier general position that the choice of numeraire has no bearing on reswitching, even though it does have a bearing on capital reversal. In the process the paper shows that the rate of growth of the economy and the marginal propensity to save also do not affect the switch points, which may thus be regarded as depending essentially on technical factors alone.     

Imperfect competition and capital accumulation: the role of price normalization

We consider a capital-accumulation model with infinitely lived households and two production sectors. The intermediate-good sector is characterized by perfect competition, a constant-returns-to-scale technology, and production externalities. The final-good sector is a monopoly operating under constant returns to scale. We analyze the general equilibrium in the sense of Gabszewicz and Vial [Journal of Economic Theory (1972) 4: 381–400] for this economy and different price-normalization rules. It is shown that the qualitative behavior of the equilibrium paths depends crucially on the chosen normalization rule. In particular, whether equilibria are monotonic or oscillating and whether indeterminacy occurs or not may depend on the choice of the numeraire.     

Measurement of diverse,irreversible capital

This paper revisits capital measurement through a microeconomic analysis of a simple project consisting of diverse types of irreversibly invested capital. Capital is aggregated using the numeraire. Thus, the proposed method of measurement is a form of accounting. It associates all types of capital in a common framework. Under certainty, user cost and depreciation take internal accounting values that obey three axioms that comprise five conditions. The accounting values proliferate, but they have only a limited relation to market prices or shadow prices. Each type of capital earns the market rate of interest. In practice, under uncertainty, calculation of the accounting values would require projections of basic data, and would be hard to comprehend, especially for outsiders, and would leave room for moral hazard. Because of these obstacles, accounting practice departs from the ideal based on cash flows and strictly limits choice by using prescribed schedules of depreciation. These schedules are interpreted from an economic perspective.     

Some Implications of Imperfect Competition For Recent Trade Theory*

This paper argues that in a general-equilibrium context, it is not sensible for oligopolistic (and mono-polistically competitive) firms to maximize profit, because the outcome would be sensitive to the choice of the numeraire. the natural objective of these firms would be to maximize the utility of the shareholders if the shareholders are identical. I show that even if each firm takes the representative individual's marginal utility of income as given, the outcome of the utility maximization objective is Pareto optimal, and in equilibrium, each firm equates price with marginal cost.     

Identification of a basket peg: the model specification controversy

A controversy has been triggered by the Chinese exchange rate regime shift from a single currency peg to an alleged basket peg. The controversy is about the specification of the model used to represent the basket as three models have been used: levels, log levels and first log differences. It is suggested that one way to confirm the validity or otherwise of a model is to use data on the special drawing rights exchange rate since the currency weights are known. The results show that the estimated weights are almost identical no matter which model and which numeraire is used. However, nonnested model selection criteria show that the best model is that written in levels, simply because this is what is used in practice by central banks adopting basket pegs.     

The choice of numeraire,capital intensity uniqueness,and the reswiritching of techniques

This paper examines the condition for capital-intensity uniqueness and the phenomenon of reswitching of techniques in a two-sector linear capital model when the prices and wages are measured in terms of the value of net output per man (the Sraffa numeraire). It is shown that when the Sraffa numeraire is used, a) the capital-intensity condition is not sufficient to ensure a unique relationship between the value of capital per man and the rate of profit; and b) reswitching of techniques is possible even if there is only one capital good in the system. The results arise only from the interaction between the price and composition effects in the model using the Sraffa numeraire.     

Further evidence on purchasing power parity and country characteristics

Using data from 76 countries, this paper investigates the relationship between country characteristics and the validity of purchasing power parity (PPP). Several interesting results are obtained based on dollar-based exchange rates. First, PPP holds for Africa and Latin America. Further, PPP tends to be supported for countries with high or moderate openness, low growth rates, high inflation rates and high nominal exchange rate volatility, respectively. Second, a single country characteristic seems inadequate to account for the validity of PPP. Third, PPP is supported if countries satisfy at least two characteristics of supporting PPP simultaneously. Finally, the main results of the paper are robust when the numeraire currency changes from the US dollar to Japanese yen.     

Tariff reforms with rigid wages

This paper analyses the effects of tariff reforms on welfare and market access in a competitive small open economy, which is characterised by involuntary unemployment due to non-market clearing wages that are fixed either in terms of the numeraire or in real terms. We show that recent tariff-reform results can be extended to integrated reforms of tariffs and the wage rate, and that the inherent tension between reforms that increase welfare and market access carries over. We also derive welfare increasing tariff-reform strategies that keep the wage rate constant and show that this tension may be attenuated. We thank Peter Neary, an anonymous referee, as well as participants at the GEP Conference on New Directions in Trade Theory and at the ETSG Annual Conference in Athens for helpful comments. We acknowledge gratefully financial support from the Leverhulme Trust under Programme Grant F114/BF.     

Identification problems in Granger causality tests based on the net oil price increase

The net oil price increase is one of the most popular models used to study the relationship between changes in the price of oil and macroeconomic activity. The model postulates that an increase in the price of oil has negative consequences for the economy if the new price exceeds the maximum price observed over a reference period of arbitrary length. The relationship between the net oil price increase and other economic variables is often evaluated with Granger causality tests, the results of which are sensitive to the choice of the reference period. If the reference price is chosen to best fit the data, it becomes an unidentified nuisance parameter under the null hypothesis, causing standard tests to over-reject the null. This article proposes a simple method to obtain correct critical values. Using US data for the period 1954 to 2012, it is found that these corrected critical values reduce, but do not eliminate support for the proposition that the net oil price increase Granger causes real USGDP growth.     

Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis

This paper empirically tests the law of one price by applying unit root tests to three panels consisting of data on 90 consumer price indices for the EU-25, the EU-15 and the 10 new EU member countries that joined the EU in 2004. The four major findings of this paper are: (1) panel unit root tests find evidence of price convergence for about 70% of all product groups, (2) the results are sensitive to the choice of the numeraire country implying that any conclusions must be based on all bilateral combinations, (3) the average half life across all product groups is 2.0 years, (4) the overall evidence for the law of one price is weaker in the 10 new EU member countries than in the EU-15.

Cardinal Bayesian allocation mechanisms without transfers

In allocating goods with no use of monetary transfers, random allocation mechanisms can be designed in order to elicit information on preference intensities. I study the nontransfer allocation of two ex-ante identical objects under Bayesian incentive compatibility, with symmetric agents and independent private valuations. I find the ex-ante utilitarian-optimal mechanism, in which the probability of receiving a specified object is used as “numeraire” to purchase probability units of the other object. I characterize this mechanism as an appropriate combination of lotteries, auctions and insurance. The latter element ensures that efficient auctions are feasible. If the problem is constrained to guarantee exactly one object per agent, then the optimal mechanism uses no information other than the agents? ordinal preferences.     

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HIGH‐FREQUENCY VERSIONS OF A STANDARD NEW‐KEYNESIAN MODEL

In a small‐scale New‐Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents’ synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction or explanation of a well‐defined macroeconomic period model should depend on the real time length of the period. While this principle is basically satisfied as the period goes to zero, the impulse – response functions of the high‐frequency versions can qualitatively as well as quantitatively be fairly dissimilar from their quarterly counterpart. The result proves to be robust under variations of the degree of price stickiness. The main conclusion is that DSGE modelling may be more sensitive to its choice of the agents’ decision interval.     

Financial dependence and the terms of payments in international transactions

Using a novel data on payment choice in export transactions, this study shows that financing cost in a country is more important in terms of offering (undertaking) post-shipment (prepayment) terms in exports (imports) for the industries that rely more on external finance.     

Modelling unobserved heterogeneity in contingent valuation of health risks

Human preferences for alternative levels of health risks can be heterogeneous. In this paper a flexible distribution approach to model health values elicited with the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method is considered. Rigid parametric structures cannot model sample heterogeneity while imposing strong assumptions on the error distribution. A mixture of normal distributions is considered which can approximate arbitrary well any empirical distributions as the number of mixtures increases. The model is applied to data on willingness to pay for reducing the individual risk of an episode of respiratory illness. The mixture distribution model is compared with the rigid probit model using a Bayes factor test. The results show that the mixture modelling approach improves performance while allowing for the consideration of alternative groups of individuals with different preferences for health risks.     

Unique non-boundary equilibria in the Morishima system

In the extensive literature on the Morishima system, the issue of the uniqueness and positiveness of equilibria has been neglected. It is shown that three conditions known to be sufficient for local stability also imply unique, non-boundary equilibria. Other implications of these three conditions such as numeraire independence and global stability are also discussed.