Social economy and employment – the case of Sweden

Recent research has shown growing shares of employment in the social economy (or non-profit sector) both in the European Union and in the United States. In the EU, there seems to be growing hopes that the social economy will be capable of contributing to local progress on the unemployment issue in crisis regions. This paper analyses employment in certain entrepreneurial forms, usually considered belonging to the social economy, in Sweden during the 1990s. The results show considerable regional differences of employment in the social economy, but also that its share of the labor market is very limited. The effect of social-economic organizations on employment, therefore, is probably mainly indirect in as much as they function as platforms for cooperation between firms or else as embryos for enterprises by strengthening local entrepreneurship and helping to nurture a deposit of social capital which has visible effects on private business and jobs. However, these effects need more detailed examinations.     

Labor market assimilation of immigrants in Spain: employment at the expense of bad job-matches?

During the last decade, Spain has experienced an unprecedented increase of immigration from three localized areas: Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Africa. Using data from the Labour Force Survey for the period 1996–2006, we study the labour characteristics of recent immigrants, identifying the major differences with the native population at arrival and tracking whether these differences fade away as their years of residence in Spain increase. We allow the returns to human capital and the sensitivity to the business cycle to differ between immigrants and natives. Overall, our results show that, compared to natives, immigrants face initially higher participation and unemployment rates, as well as higher incidence of overeducation and temporary contracts. However, 5 years after arrival immigrants’ participation rates start to converge to natives’ rates, unemployment rates decrease to levels even lower than those of natives, and the incidence of overeducation and temporary contracts remains roughly constant: no reduction of the gap with Spanish workers is observed. We are grateful to Christian Dustmann, Juan F. Jimeno, Claudio Michelacci, an anonymous referee, and seminar participants at the 2006 EALE Conference, 2006 Simposio de Análisis Económico, BBVA Economic Research Department, FEDEA, CReAM, INSIDE and LECG for helpful comments and suggestions.     

A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Capital Controls: Spain, 1986–1990 *

This Paper offers a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of capital controls in Spain during the period 1986-1990. The analysis is based on a portfolio-balance model Previously estimated for the Spanish economy, where the complete elimination of capital controls is simulated. Our results suggest that capital controls would have avoided a net capital outflow amounting to nearly a 4 per cent increase in the Spanish net foreign asset position, as a quarterly average, during the first five years of Spanish membership into the EU. [C32, F21, F36]     

On the incentive effects of monitoring: evidence from the lab and the field

Several experimental studies have shown that the crowding-out effect of monitoring may outweigh its disciplining effect through intrinsic motivation destruction, thereby reducing effort. However, most of these experiments use numeric effort tasks that subjects may not be intrinsically motivated to complete. This paper aims to analyze the incentive effects of monitoring using a real-effort task for which intrinsic motivation is more likely to exist. We conducted two similar experiments, in the lab in Montreal and in the field in Ouagadougou. In contrast to the lab, subjects in the field are unaware they are taking part in an experiment.     

Revisiting the finance–growth nexus: the Turkish case, 1980–2010

In Turkey, the empirical results on the link between financial development and economic growth are mixed. The existing studies do not take into account the fact that Turkey has experienced endemic political and economic instabilities over extended periods. This study aims to analyse the role of macroeconomic instability and public borrowing on the finance–growth nexus in Turkey by using time series econometric techniques over the 1980–2010 period. In doing so, we attempt to extend the existing literature by taking into account the role of macroeconomic instability as well as public borrowing. Our results reveal that there are additional – albeit indirect – channels between finance and growth via the effects of macro instability and public borrowing on financial development and economic growth. After taking into account the effects of overall instability and public borrowing, we found that growth–financial development relationship is bidirectional and permanent. In other words, in Turkish case, economic growth and financial development are jointly determined. Thus, our results shed some light on the ambiguity of the evidence on the link between financial development and economic growth for Turkey.     

US—Mexico employment effects of repealing the US offshore assembly provision

The [OAPs] are contributing to the actual displacement – and impending displacement in the next few years – of scores of thousands of unskilled and semi-skilled factory production workers who are in the economy' mainstream.

Nathaniel Goldfinger, AFL-CIO, 1970

We believe that the only benefits derived from the existence of [the OAP] are reached by transnational enterprises through increases in profits. This, however, cannot offset the harm done to the thousands of American's whose livelihoods have been sacrificed in the pursuit of those profits.

Mark Anderson, AFL-CIO, 1987

What my well-intentioned but misinformed colleagues fail to realise is that without provisions like [the OAP], products [assembled in Mexico] would be 100 per cent made in Asia. The loss, therefore, would equal not only the jobs used in the assembly process in Mexico, but those used to manufacture the components produced here in the United States.

Hon. Jim Kolbe, 1987

The employment effects of the Offshore Assembly Provision (OAP) are highly controversial. Organized labour strongly opposes the provision because they believe it shifts assembly jobs offshore. In constrast, US business contends that in order to compete with imports, domestic components must be assembled abroad. Thus, the OAP preserves jobs in components industries. Mexico favours the provision, believing that it is an important cause of the growth in assembly employment in its northers border region. In this paper, we contribute to the debate over the OAP by supplying estimates of its employment effects in the United States and Mexico for disaggregate industries. We find the claims of both proponents and opponents of the OAP to be greatly exaggerated.     

Assessing the employment effects of the German welfare reform – an integrated CGE-microsimulation approach

The purpose of this article is to quantify the employment effects of the recent German welfare reform. The key element of this reform was to merge the coexisting transfer systems Social Assistance (SA) and Unemployment Assistance (UA) into one unified benefit (Arbeitslosengeld II – ALG II). We also consider a second reform scenario that is intended to further improve the labour supply incentives of low-skilled workers. Our methodological contribution is to use an integrated CGE-microsimulation model. In adopting such an approach, we are able to combine the advantages of microsimulation studies by accounting for the large amount of heterogeneity in terms of households’ preferences and budget constraints with the advantages of an applied general equilibrium model. The latter permits us to identify potential general equilibrium repercussions through changes in wages and unemployment. The simulations indicate that the introduction of ALG II results in a negligible increase in employment of only 45?000 individuals. In contrast, a cut in benefit levels combined with a decrease in transfer withdrawal is shown to produce somewhat larger employment effects of about 190?000 individuals.     

Economic growth and Kaldor's law: the case of Turkey, 1925–78

In this paper Kaldor's enine of growth hypothesis is examined and its validity is tested forr the Turkish economy. The results obtained, regardless of the specification and estimation techniques used, consistently support the hypothesis.     

Balance‐of‐payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979–2002

The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979–2002. This study finds: (1) that for 1979–2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts – the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of a demand‐side approach to the economic growth in China. For time series analyses, a bounds test approach is adopted.     

On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade.     

Welfare effects of quality change and new products in the Japanese mobile telecommunications market: 1995–2001

This paper presents a simple framework based on a discrete choice model to assess the welfare effects of quality change and new products. Such a framework is shown to be useful where the hedonic approach is impracticable. This framework is applied to the Japanese mobile telecommunications market during the period 1995–2001. The estimated qualities for mobile telecommunications services in Japan are shown to have improved rapidly during this period, indicating the importance of quality change in the welfare gains of consumers relative to price change, and the need to adjust quality change in the construction of price indexes. However, it is also proven, at least in the earliest stages, that the effect of new services on consumer welfare was limited.     

Testing exchange rate efficiency: the case of euro–dollar

This paper tests the semi‐strong efficiency of the euro–dollar currency market by introducing a simple heuristic test, based on the ‘general‐to‐specific’ methodology and meant to include as two specific sub‐cases the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ (EMH) in the currency market as well as alternative theories implying a time dependent process of propagation of information. According to the results of our nested test, the ‘efficient market hypothesis’ in the euro–dollar currency market is rejected.     

Quality-corrected price indices: the case of the Dutch new passenger car market, 1990–1999

Market dynamics and technological developments constitute a major challenge to the proper measurement of the price evolution of durable goods. In this study, hedonic methods are used to estimate quality-corrected price indices of new passenger cars in the Netherlands, 1990–1999. Use is made of a huge set of price, quantity and quality information about 11,000 car models, obtained from different sources. During the observation period the nominal price level of all available car models increased about 20% on average, while the shares of car models with airbags, tinted glass and power steering increased from almost nothing to about 90%. Matched model price indices and the official CPI for new passenger cars, which partially account for quality-adjustments, estimate the price increase to be equal to 10.6–14.2% respectively 11.2% for the 1990–1999 period. By contrast, the hedonic Fisher-like price indices based on the preferred annually estimated brand-weighted semi-log hedonic model, lead to price changes varying from +?2.3% to ??3.4% (depending on the choice of weight variable, and the use of fixed or varying reference periods in the index construction) and thereby fall 8.9 to 14.6 percentage points below the official figures, over the period 1990–1999. The pooled adjacent-years model holds an intermediate position with a predicted quality-corrected price decrease of 1.8% over the observation period, which is 13.0 points below the CPI.     

On the redistributive effects of Germany’s feed-in tariff

This article assesses the redistributive effects of a key element of German climate policy, the promotion of renewables in the electricity generation mix through the provision of a feed-in tariff. The tariff shapes the distribution of households’ disposable incomes by charging a levy that is proportional to household electricity consumption and by transferring financial resources to households who are feeding green electricity into the public grid. Our study builds on representative household survey data, providing information on various socio-demographics, household electricity consumption, and ownership of photovoltaic facilities. The redistributive effects of the feed-in tariff are evaluated by means of inequality indices. All the indices indicate that Germany’s feed-in tariff is regressive.     

On science and reform: the parable of the new economics, 1960s–1970s

The article considers Paul Samuelson, Robert Solow, James Tobin, Walter Heller, and Arthur Okun qua political economists. The focus is on their combination of a faith in economic science and a passionate public spirit. The article aims to substantiate two related arguments. The first is that these “new economists” were public intellectuals, regularly addressing public opinion, and engaging with the major economic and social issues of the times; the second is that their value judgements gained the upper hand over scientific discourse when they were confronted with the 1970s inflation.     

Banking,currency, stock market and debt crises in Spain, 1850–1995

What type of crisis is generated when debt increases? We extend the literature by framework by introducing currency and stock market crises in the analysis. We apply our proposal to the case of Spain, since this is a country that has experienced a very important amount of financial crises from the nineteenth century onwards. We find the same results as the previous literature for the determinants of banking and debt crises but substituting external and public debt with perpetual debt and where perpetual debt has a less important role than crises in the private sector. Moreover, we find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that currency crises depend strongly and positively on financial centre crises and negatively and mildly on perpetual debt. We justify the negative relalionship due to an inflation tax. We also find evidence in favour of the hypothesis that stock market crises depend only positively and strongly on financial centre crises.     

Income distribution dynamics of urban residents: The case of China (1995–2004)

Using a 1995–2004 panel data of Chinese urban residents, we investigate the dynamics of income distribution in cities. According to Kernel estimates of the relative income distribution of Chinese cities, we find that: (1) the national across-city distribution of per capita GDP exhibits an apparent unique-peak distribution in 1995 and an “emerging multiple-peak” one in 2004; (2) for prefecture-level cities, income distribution has evolved to an “apparent multiple-peak” distribution from a unique-peak one; (3) the income distribution of county-level cities maintains a unique-peak curve; (4) most of the income dynamics of urban residents originates from prefecture-and-higher-level cities. We sample three representative provinces and study the urban income dynamics respectively. The analysis suggests that within a single province, urban income distribution evolves from unique-peak to twin-peak curve; while among provinces, income convergence is evident for urban residents. In addition, we measure the incidence of poverty in cities based on our income dynamics analysis, and find that the ratios of people living below absolute poverty line have been decreasing at cities of all levels.     

Evolution of FDI flows in the global network: 2003–2012

As one type of international capital flow, FDI maintains its important role in globalization. This article attempts to investigate the evolution of the FDI flows from a network perspective. Based on the bilateral FDI flows data between countries from 2003 to 2012, we construct the global FDI flows network for each year and thus quantify network measures (such as flow volumes and connections); further by analysing the tendency and changes of these network measures during the past 10 years, we delineate the features and dynamics of the FDI flows in the global network. We have the following findings: (a) the flows network changes during and after the crisis, i.e. flow volume fallen down and recovered, and flow connection restructured with more diversity; (b) the global FDI flows network is getting more loosely connected; (c) individual countries vary in different patterns.     

On the assessment of the performance in earnings management for the banking industry: the case of China’s banks

Earnings management is popular in the banking industry. Earnings can be manipulated by discretionary loan loss provisions (DLLP). Analysing the trajectories of banks’ DLLP (i.e. their change in DLLP over time) is an effective way to assess the performance in earnings management for the banking industry, but seems not to have been addressed in the earnings management literature. In this study, we analyse the trajectories of DLLP with the yearly data from 2007 through 2012 for four types of banks in China. The results have indicated that state-owned banks, policy banks and city commercial banks seem to manage earnings well. Cautionary notes about bank risks are provided.