Aggregation bias-correcting approach to the health–income relationship: Life expectancy and GDP per capita in 148 countries, 1970–2010

A large amount of data consisting of 148 countries for the years 1970 to 2010 is analysed in the context of the health–income relationship. The literature suggests that the biased income–health effect obtained with macro data can be a result of the aggregation of individual concave income functions on average health. This aggregation problem is analysed in detail, and a bias-correcting method is proposed to overcome it. The results with new model alternatives show that they correct the income effects on average health in the right direction; that is, they produce smaller parameter estimates than biased models. Augmenting the results with the quantile regression approach, which is sensitive to health differences between countries, indicates that the poorest countries’ income gradient is still much larger than that of rich countries. However, the median life expectancy effect of the log of GDP per capita across the countries decreased during the sample decennials. The results for income inequality measured with the Gini coefficient indicate that the effects of inequality on health are still significant in the poorest countries but non-significant among rich countries after the year 2000. We argue that the proposed bias-correcting method retains the interest in macro health modelling and offers new model alternatives in other contexts.     

Dual price and quantity aggregation

In his seminal 1959 paper (in Econometrica), Gorman developed conditions for price aggregation in the context of income-constrained utility maximization. Price aggregation is defined as the existence of group income allocation functions with price indices and income as arguments. This paper develops and proves propositions about quantity aggregation that are dual to the Gorman results. These dual structures contain interesting asymmetries. The quantity aggregation concepts should be useful in the study of organizational structures characterized by decentralized shadow price (demand price) determination.     

CONSISTENT TRADE POLICY AGGREGATION*

Most empirical policy work requires policy aggregation. Trade policy aggregation exemplifies the aggregation problem poignantly, with thousands of highly dispersed trade barriers. This article provides methods of policy aggregation that are consistent with two common objectives of empirical work. One is to preserve real income. The other is to preserve the real volume of activity in the parts of the economy being aggregated. Both objectives must be achieved for consistent multicountry policy modeling. An application to India shows that the standard atheoretic method of aggregation overstates India's real income by around three times the global gains from free trade.     

Testing exact aggregation in income and household characteristics: the effects of aggregation across goods

Exact aggregation in income and household characteristics are tested using Canadian cross-sectional microdata. Over 100 data sets of homogeneous households are used, making it possible to conduct a large number of independent hypothesis tests. Tests are also conducted to determine whether the homogeneous household groups can be grouped into more heterogeneous data sets. Six different kinds of demand systems are estimated to ensure the robustness of the results to separability/aggregation structure.Exact aggregation in income, family size, region of residence and housing tenure status are strongly rejected, but exact aggregation in age of head of household is not. Restrictions which would allow pooling of households of different sizes, regions and tenure status are also strongly rejected. The test results exhibit a little sensitivity to the expenditure aggregates used, but not to the extent that the results would be different.The results imply that aggregate demand functions which use time series data should include many statistics from the joint distribution of income and household characteristics. In addition, when using data at the micro-level, the amount of heterogeneity in households' behaviour is much greater than usually assumed. This calls for the use of much more homogeneous household groups in the estimation of demand models than are typically employed.     

A Note on Aggregation and the Lucas Critique

The paper investigates the effects of aggregation on different macroeconomic modelling strategies. This is done within the framework of a small example economy, where all households solve the same intertemporal consumption problem, but with different parameters of the utility functions and different exogenous income processes. Three models are fitted to the aggregate data: a representative agent rational expectations model, a simple version of the permanent income hypothesis, and a time series model. If the economic environment is kept stable, the three approaches perform similarly well. However, the representative agent model stands up to the Lucas critique better than its competitors, despite the aggregation error. Unlike the other models, it never gives completely wrong forecasts even after an exogenous change in income processes.     

Who votes for public environmental goods in California?: Evidence from a spatial analysis of voting for environmental ballot measures

Voting referenda provide direct evidence of the demand for public goods. A number of previous studies have used referenda to analyze the support for public environmental goods. These studies have used aggregate data from large jurisdictional units (usually counties) and summary income measures such as the mean or median, and have usually found that higher income areas offer greater support for environmental propositions. We examine environmental referenda voting in California using census block group data, spatial dependence controls, and detailed income distribution data. We find that household income has a negative marginal effect on environmental referenda voting for most of the income range when using census block data. In addition, controls for spatial dependence significantly reduce the magnitude of most coefficients. This suggests that OLS estimates of referenda determinants are biased. We also show that county level data may be subject to severe aggregation bias and might not be appropriate for referenda studies.     

Calculating Poverty Measures from the Generalised Beta Income Distribution

Data for measuring poverty are frequently available in a summary form that describes the proportion of income or expenditure for each of a number of population proportions. While various discrete poverty measures can be applied directly to data in this limited form, they typically require an arbitrary approach to within‐group interpolation. This problem can be overcome by fitting either a parametric income distribution or a Lorenz curve to the grouped data and computing the required quantities from estimated parameters. The Lorenz curve approach is widely used by the World Bank, but can encounter problems. As an alternative, in this article we show how to calculate several poverty measures from parameters of the generalized beta income distribution, and its popular special cases. An analysis of poverty changes in countries from South and Southeast Asia is used to illustrate the methodology.     

我国经济增长的多重均衡现象——基于动态门槛面板数据模型的研究

本文首次应用动态门槛面板数据模型，对我国经济增长的多重均衡现象进行了研究，研究表明我国经济增长具有明显的多重均衡现象。当人均收入低于1007元时，存在着经济增长障碍，经济处于低水平陷阱；一旦突破低收入门槛，在同一的收入状态里省区经济增长率趋向收敛。然而，由于较高收入状态的省区收入收敛速度快于较低收入状态的省区，因此，我国富裕省区与相对落后省区的人均收入差距还在不断扩大；我国目前还没有达到增长极限，不存在高水平陷阱现象。     

A generalization to QUAIDS

Previous research shows that consumers’ response to price and income changes is heterogeneous. In addition, evidence from national data often does not support the classical assumption of one commodity-one price. This paper introduces a data coherent generalization to the quadratic form of the almost ideal demand system (g-QUAIDS) that incorporates the sources of heterogeneity in the demand function and allows for regional price variation. Aggregation over consumers imposes a linearization to the g-QUAIDS that requires a new set of price indices. The results from an empirical study by using microdata from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey of Iran highlight the impact of aggregation bias in relation to the level of aggregation. An investigation of the predictive power of linear versus nonlinear g-QUAIDS in different aggregation levels provides practical recommendations for consumer demand analysis.     

A Post-Keynesian Response to Piketty's ‘Fundamental Contradiction of Capitalism’

In Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty presents a rich set of data that deals with income and wealth distribution, output-wealth dynamics and rates of return. He also proposes some ‘laws of capitalism’. At the core of his argument lies the ‘fundamental inequality of capitalism’, an empirical regularity stating that the rate of return on wealth is greater than the growth rate of the economy. This simple construct allows him to conclude that increasing wealth (and income) inequality is an inevitable outcome of capitalism. While we share some of his conclusions, we will highlight some shortcomings of his approach based on a Cambridge post-Keynesian growth-and-distribution model. The paper makes four points. First, r?>?g is not necessarily associated with increasing inequality in functional distribution. Second, Piketty succumbs to a fallacy of composition when he claims that a necessary condition for r?>?g is that capitalists save a large share of their capital income. Third, post-Keynesians can learn from Piketty's insights about personal income distribution and incorporate them into their models. Fourth, we reiterate the post-Keynesian argument that a well-behaved aggregate production function does not exist and cannot explain income distribution.     

基于粗糙证据合成的群决策方法

D-S证据理论作为一种重要的数据融合方法,可有效解决不确定群决策问题.针对D-S证据理论的应用局限,提出基于粗糙集的证据合成群决策方法.该方法将决策数据先用粗糙集处理,之后再根据冲突权重选择合成.文中设计了决策算法,并以应用实例说明该方法的合理性.     

Consumption volatility and income persistence in the permanent income model

Deaton's “excess smoothness” question can be reformulated by focusing attention on total income rather than labour income: the permanent income theory predicts that the relative volatility of consumption is equal to total income persistence, a fact that is contradicted by empirical evidence. This formulation is more general than the original one in that it is independent of the value of the interest rate, the univariate dynamics of labour income and the information set of the representative consumer. When properly formulated, the excess smoothness problem cannot be solved within Quah's superior information model; as a consequence, the interest of alternative solutions such as aggregation models is increased.     

Aggregation effects on price and expenditure elasticities in a quadratic almost ideal demand system

Abstract.  While it is well known that demand elasticities calculated at the macro level will in general differ from those calculated at the micro level because of aggregation effects, there remain the questions of how large the effects are and how they vary with the degree of inequality in the income distribution. We explore these questions with models based on a quadratic version of the Almost Ideal Demand System. We investigate the elasticity differences theoretically and then calibrate the models and generate numerical results, using income data for seven countries with widely different distributions. The aggregation effects are found generally to be rather small, even with highly unequal income distributions.     

聚集抑或扩散——城市规模影响城乡收入差距的理论机制及实证分析

区域中心城市的规模变动引起聚集效应和扩散效应强度的变化,进而影响区域内城镇、农村居民收入水平及城乡收入差距。利用286个地级以上城市2008年的截面数据和2003—2008年面板数据的实证分析显示:总体上中心城市规模越大,区域城乡收入差距越小,城乡收入差距随城市规模变动呈现出U型特征;中心城市的分散型结构有利于缩小区域城乡收入差距,城市经济发展水平越高,城乡收入差距越小;不同规模等级的城市规模对城乡收入差距的影响效应存在较大差异。这些结论对于推动城市可持续发展、统筹城乡发展具有启示意义。     

THE SOCIAL SIGNIFICANCE OF INCOME DISTRIBUTION STATISTICS

In both political discussions and scientific literature the income distribution has come to occupy a central position for the consideration of social welfare and economic equalization. It has been assumed that an individual's income reflects his consumption opportunities and therefore his standard of living or economic welfare. The thesis of this paper is, however, that there are reasons for being quite pessimistic about drawing meaningful conclusions from income distribution data. As illustrated by the use of Swedish data, the distribution of income gives an extremely incomplete picture of the distribution of consumption for a wide variety of definitional and statistical reasons. The distribution of consumption, furthermore, cannot be transformed into a corresponding distribution of welfare, since there is no well defined concept of welfare. The treatment of public consumption in empirical analysis of the distribution of welfare also raises problems. The paper closes with the presentation of the conceptual basis for an alternative to the traditional method of analyzing the distribution of income.     

Measuring the costs of children: an alternative approach

Problems related to the concept of the "cost of a child", more commonly known as the general equivalence scale, are reviewed. The importance of this concept is noted with regard to both theoretical and empirical studies relating to taxation, poverty, income distribution, dietary needs, income maintenance programs, supplementary and child benefits, and other social security payments. "This paper proposes a new methodology for calculating the scale using a framework which is consistent with utility theory and which overcomes the identification problem without having to enforce the arbitrary prior assumptions of recent studies. The proposed method allows easy calculation of not only the basic 'scale' parameter but also how it varies with price and reference utility. [The author illustrates] the usefulness of the procedure by estimating on U.K. budget data at two different levels of aggregation and employing two sets of quite different functional forms. The results are plausible, compare favourably with one another and, hence, confirm the robustness and usefulness of the proposed procedure."     

The determinants of marital happiness

This study contributes to the literature by providing an empirical analysis of the determinants of marital and general happiness. The empirical analysis is conducted using US data from the General Social Survey (GSS) and an Ordered Probit Model. We also attempt to overcome the endogeneity problem between marital happiness and infidelity using a recursive bivariate probit model. One of the advances of this study is to show that the determinants of marital happiness differ between men and women in interesting ways. While infidelity has similar effects for both sexes, we find that women have a detectable preference for a traditional division of labour within the household. In addition, social class, religion, age, children and income have differential effects between men and women. In particular, for marital happiness we find diminishing returns from household income for women and satiation for men. Hence, we find that most of the existing literature has left hidden important differences in the determinants of marital happiness between men and women.     

Welfare effects of the euro cash changeover

Using merged data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this paper applies a parametric difference-in-differences approach to assess the real effects of the introduction of the euro on subjective well-being. A complementary nonparametric approach is also used to analyze the impact of difficulties with the new currency on well-being. The results indicate a loss in well-being associated with the introduction of the new currency, with the predicted probability that a person is contented with his/her household income diminishing by 9.7 percentage points. We calculate a compensating income variation of approximately one-third. That is, an increase in post-government household income of more than 30% is needed to compensate for the clear decline in well-being. The reasons for the negative impact are threefold. First, perceived inflation overestimates the real increase in prices resulting in suboptimal consumption decisions. Second, money illusion causes a false assessment of the budget constraint. Third, individuals have to bear the costs from the conversion and the adjustment to the new currency. Moreover, it is thought that losses are higher for persons who have difficulties with the new currency. However, the impact of difficulties in using and converting the new currency is rather small, and the initial problems were overcome within one year of the introduction of euro cash.     

On the optimal income taxation and educational decisions

In this paper we consider three different ways of incorporating individuals' educational choices into the design of optimal income tax policy. In one variant of the model (case 2), where an individual chooses his education before knowing his ability and after that education makes his labour supply decisions on the basis of known ability, it is shown that qualitative features of the optimal income tax schedule are not similar to those of the standard optimal income tax model. The marginal tax rate is generally not zero at the endpoints of distribution but is most likely negative. Using numerical methods, some interesting features quite different from earlier numerical results are revealed, especially in the second case. For example, the marginal tax rate is non-decreasing in income for a substantial income range. In addition, our calculations support neither the traditional views on the egalitarian nature of equal education nor its disadvantageous consequences in the perfect utilitarian society.     

Microeconomic modeling of parallel markets: The case of agricultural goods in the USSR

In a centrally planned economy, non-market-clearing prices fixed by the state cannot be used directly to estimate consumer behavior models. This paper represents an attempt to overcome this problem by utilizing prices in a parallel “free” market. An equilibrium model incorporating parallel markets is discussed and a demand curve arising from this model is estimated using data for the markets for meat and milk in the USSR. the price and income elasticities of demand for these goods are found to be significantly higher than those estimated for the United States.