The impacts of trade and self‐sufficiency policies on heterogeneous rice farms in Malaysia

This paper develops a farm household model of heterogeneous Malaysian rice farmers. The model determines the domestic price of milled rice in equilibrium. The model is simulated to analyze the effects of free trade, self‐sufficiency achieved through trade policy, and the impact of free trade and self‐sufficiency when rice productivity expands. The ex ante results for free trade predict that total rice supply rises as the increase in imports offsets the decrease in domestic production, causing the domestic price of milled rice to fall by 15.8 percent. While this price decrease generates negative income effects for rice farmers, it leads to an expansion of consumption of milled rice by both the farm and urban populations. The results for self‐sufficiency through heightened tariffs predict that production for domestic rice farmers increases. However, with fewer imports, total rice supply falls, causing the domestic price of rice to increase by 41.5 percent. Because free trade is politically unfeasible and trade‐driven self‐sufficiency policies contract total rice consumption, boosting rice production through research and development is an effective way for Malaysia to increase the total supply of rice while limiting its dependence on imports.     

基于农户小规模经营下的农业现代化发展机制与路径选择——以黑龙江省水稻生产为例

文章以黑龙江省水稻生产为例,以实际调研数据,通过Logit模型对农户选择稻米质量安全技术的影响因素进行实证分析,探讨了农户小规模经营下的农业现代化发展机制与路径选择。提出在现有农户小规模经营下,必须加强产业化建设,促进农业生产组织形式创新;进一步落实粮食补贴制度,走以工补农道路;加强农业生产技术的创新与推广的农业现代化道路。     

Political Economy of Agricultural Reform in Japan under Abe's Administration

As a symbol of regulations as “solid as bedrock,” Japanese agriculture is a key target for structural reform under the Abe administration's “Abenomics” growth strategy. Its reform proposals have encompassed long‐standing rice production regulations, agricultural organizations, including the agricultural cooperatives (JA), and the controlled system of milk distribution. The government also seeks to promote agricultural exports and farmers’ participation in processing and distributing agricultural products. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, and taking advantage of changes in the political environment of agriculture that have weakened the political power of farmers and JA, the government has launched a reform offensive with variable impact: progress has been made in some areas (e.g. JA reform) but little change in others (such as rice production adjustment). The most significant challenge lies ahead in reforming the farmland system, which is yet to be tackled.     

Rainfed mechanized farming and deforestation in central Sudan

Sudan is threatened by a serious deforestation problem. Total forested area decreased by about 20 percent over the last two decades, largely as a result of the expansion of rainfed mechanized farming (RMF). To safeguard against the problems of deforestation, the government's Mechanized Farming Corporation requires each farmer to leave at least ten percent of the total farm area under shelterbelts. Few farmers pay attention to this clause. This paper addresses the problem of RMF expansion and analyzes the effects of different factors on the preservation of shelterbelts. Results indicate that the following factors influence the decision to preserve shelterbelts: farmer's belief in the value of shelterbelts, the production of gum arabic, farm size, farmer's wealth, years a farm has been cultivated, and type of farm.     

不同规模农户农业生产效率差异及影响因素研究——基于DEA-Tobit模型的实证分析

文章基于小麦主产区4个省份946个不同规模农户的调查数据,利用DEA模型和Tobit回归模型分析了小农户和家庭农场农业生产效率的影响机制。结果表明:家庭农场的农业生产效率明显高于小农户的农业生产效率,家庭农场的生产效率与经营规模呈倒"U"型变化特征;在影响因素方面,土地肥沃程度与农业技术指导对小农户和家庭农场的农业生产效率均有显著正向影响;家庭农场更倾向于通过提高受教育程度和增加单块耕地面积来提升农业生产效率;而小农户的农业生产效率对农户年龄和农户从事农作物种植年限呈现出较强的依赖性。基于此,建议有针对性地加大农业技术指导,适度扩大农业生产经营规模,加强小农户与新型农业经营主体之间的合作与联合,促进农业生产向高质量发展。     

中国南方稻农干旱风险处理策略

干旱对中国农业生产的影响越来越严重。本文从微观的角度探讨了在面临干旱时农户所采用的各种应对策略,并对这些策略的有效性进行了一定的评估。本文发现,多数农户通过这些策略成功地应对了一般性的干旱,但一些贫困农户在此方面仍然面临着较大的困难。     

农户水稻种植保险购买决策的影响因素分析——基于福建省浦城和永安的数据

利用2010年8—10月对福建省浦城和永安的农户购买水稻种植保险调查的数据,对福建省水稻种植保险的发展进行了概述,对影响农户购买水稻种植保险的因素进行了分析。结果表明:农户的性别特征、种植规模、对水稻种植保险的认识及是否有听说过理赔等,对农户购买水稻种植保险的影响显著,而教育程度、种植年限及产量变异系数对购买决策的影响不明显。     

农户对可持续农业技术采用意愿分析

农户采用可持续农业技术受到多种因素的影响.经验分析表明,显著影响因素有农场特征、家庭特征、制度变量等.本文采用意愿调查法进行了水稻生产者对环境和健康的支付意愿调查分析.结果表明,当前影响农民采用可持续农业技术意愿的因素有年龄、教育程度、家中老人个数和信息来源等.     

保护性耕作技术经济效益及其补贴政策的总体评价——来自山西省农户问卷调查的分析

基于农户调研数据,运用描述性统计分析方法,在分析保护性耕作技术对产量和生产成本影响的基础上,分析了保护性耕作技术补贴政策的实施效果以及农户对该项补贴政策的评价和期望。得出的主要结论是,保护性耕作技术的增产和节约成本效果对部分农户还存在差异,政府补贴是推进这一技术实施的主要手段。就如何加快保护性耕作技术的推广和应用提出了建议。     

契约农业与养殖户收入：理论线索和经验证据

契约农业是小农户衔接现代农业的有效途径,也是我国农业产业化发展的主导形式。本文构建契约农业影响养殖户收入的理论分析框架,利用610份肉牛养殖户的微观调查数据,运用倾向得分匹配法,实证检验了契约农业对养殖户收入的影响及其作用机制。参加契约农业能显著提升养殖户收入水平,销售合同和生产管理合同均能显著增加养殖户收入,其中生产管理合同的影响程度更大。组群差异分析发现,契约农业对养殖年限、养殖规模和养殖培训等不同组群养殖户收入具有异质性影响。养殖成本和养殖技术在契约农业与养殖户收入之间起到显著的中介作用,即契约农业通过规模效应和技术效应促进养殖户增收。养殖接力在契约农业对养殖户收入提升的过程中起到正向调节作用。政府应积极创造有利条件鼓励和引导契约农业的发展;根据养殖户资源禀赋特征,完善公司与养殖户利益分配机制;通过“干中学”效应,推进新技术的推广和应用;在契约农业中着力推广“母畜分户饲养、仔畜集中育肥”的接力式养殖经营方式,以推动畜牧产业的可持续、高质量发展。     

政府政策对棉农生产及环境变化的影响——以新疆南疆为例

政府在农村承担着公共服务、组织农民、保护农民和教育农民的职能,为了实现这些职能,政府出台了诸如财政补贴、金融保险、农业组织、技术推广和生产资料监管等许多促进农业生产与农民增收的政策,政府制定政策的初衷是好的,但在执行的过程中总是或多或少会产生一些负面效果,导致农民盲目扩大棉花种植面积、降低生产经营的自主性等,既不益于棉花产业的健康发展,也会给土地质量带来一定的负面影响。论文以新疆南疆为背景,分析了现行政府政策对棉农生产及环境的影响,并对政府政策引致的负面效果进行了原因剖析,指出政府职能不清、决策缺乏长远的全局意识与创新意识、政策信息不透明,政策的制定与执行缺乏系统衔接性和绩效评价环节是导致政府政策引致负面效果的原因所在。     

Insurance,credit, and technology adoption: Field experimental evidencefrom Malawi

Does production risk suppress the demand for credit? We implemented a randomized field experiment to ask whether provision of insurance against a major source of production risk induces farmers to take out loans to adopt a new crop technology. The study sample was composed of roughly 800 maize and groundnut farmers in Malawi, where by far the dominant source of production risk is the level of rainfall. We randomly selected half of the farmers to be offered credit to purchase high-yielding hybrid maize and groundnut seeds for planting in the November 2006 crop season. The other half of farmers were offered a similar credit package, but were also required to purchase (at actuarially fair rates) a weather insurance policy that partially or fully forgave the loan in the event of poor rainfall. Surprisingly, take-up was lower by 13 percentage points among farmers offered insurance with the loan. Take-up was 33.0% for farmers who were offered the uninsured loan. There is suggestive evidence that reduced take-up of the insured loan was due to farmers already having implicit insurance from the limited liability clause in the loan contract: insured loan take-up was positively correlated with farmer education, income, and wealth, which may proxy for the individual's default costs. By contrast, take-up of the uninsured loan was uncorrelated with these farmer characteristics.     

收入风险与劳动力配置多元化:以陕西省为例

劳动力多元化程度直接影响到农户的生产发展以及消费平滑,但是收入风险冲击的增加使得农户劳动力分配呈现多元化趋势。本文通过Tobit模型对陕西省928户农户的问卷调查数据进行计量分析,检验了风险冲击与风险预期对农户劳动力多元化配置的边际效应。经验分析表明,不同种类的风险冲击对农户劳动力多元化水平有显著的正向影响,技术冲击对劳动力多元化影响最大,自然冲击次之,市场冲击较小,健康或失业冲击对农户劳动力分配影响则不显著。这表明要提高劳动力的专业化程度,就必须降低技术冲击、自然冲击所带来的消费波动影响。     

农民权利配置与收入增长关系研究

农民权利配置在促进农民收入增长的同时,也存在着制约农民收入增长的情况。本文力图明晰农民收入增长中权利配置的主要问题及产生原因,找到解决对策。本文首先对农民权利配置与农民收入关系做了理论及描述性分析,进一步实证分析了1994-2011年农民权利配置与农民收入增长的关系。结果表明：长期以来,国家配置为主的配置方式,与国家支农支出、农地流转比例、农用机械总动力有关的权利配置和其对农民收入增长影响系数的匹配不当,收益权配置为主的配置偏好共同导致农民权利配置效率偏低,影响到农民收入增速长期低于GDP增速。本文建议控制直接补贴规模,加大农业科技投入,适度控制农地流转的比例及速度,引导农民开设家庭农场,扶持专业化农业生产,从而提高农民权利配置效率,有效促进农民收入增长。     

粮食主产区农户加入农业合作组织意愿的实证分析——以江西省为例

加入农业合作组织将在一定程度上减少农户生产经营活动的盲目性,提升其生产经营活动的组织性和计划性,进而增强分散农户抗衡市场风险的能力。以江西省289个农户为研究对象,实证分析了粮食主产区农户加入农业合作组织的意愿,结果表明:30.8%的农户愿意加入农业合作组织,显著影响农户加入农业合作组织意愿的因素是户主年龄、户主文化程度、户主对风险的偏好、家庭种植面积、获取交易信息难易程度、交易过程顺畅程度以及是否参加过农业技术培训。     

粮食直补对稻农参与非农劳动的影响分析——基于湖北309户农户入户调查的分析

随着我国经济结构转型,农村劳动力大量向非农业领域转移,非农劳动收入已成为湖北农民现金收入的主要来源。实施粮食生产补贴政策将直接增加农户收入,农户劳动力分配很可能因此产生调整。基于湖北309户水稻种植户的入户调查,运用Probit模型分析粮食补贴政策是否影响水稻种植农户参与非农劳动的情况。研究结果显示：接受粮食补贴的水稻种植农户中参与非农劳动的显著增加受多方面因素影响,无论按计税面积计算的粮食补贴还是按种植面积计算的粮食补贴,都将影响农民参与非农劳动。     

信息化能促进农户的市场参与吗?--来自中国苹果主产区的微观证据

在转型时期,信息化工具的引入对农户打破低水平均衡、改善信息困境、提高市场进入能力具有重要作用。文章基于比较静态分析和专业化苹果主产区微观调查数据的实证分析表明,手机和电脑这两种信息化工具的应用能够改善信息的流动性和共享程度,会对农户的销售市场选择和垂直协作参与产生正向的促进作用。此外,电脑和互联网的引入也有助于提高农户的信息可得性以及与收购商的博弈能力,进而对农产品销售价格产生积极影响。因此,进一步克服自然环境和社会经济条件的约束,提高信息化工具普及率,注重农产品生产、销售相关信息的搜集和发布等信息源建设仍是农村信息化工作的题中之意。     

风险规避、信息臻别与水稻品种的采用

本文通过实证研究表明在一个追求利润而采用新品种但需要缓解风险、臻别信息的过程中,外部推广机构行为较农户自身禀赋相比影响更为显著,但是大多数农户对公共机构的权威性的认同更多的是出于对国家和科学的信任而敢于采用新品种。由于农户自身无法有效地对新品种作出信息臻别,农户行为表现出明显的风险规避特征。     

The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market

The Philippine government has a number of policy interventions in the domestic rice market aimed at promoting national food security. This paper examines the economy-wide and food security implications of three of the main policies: a ceiling on prices paid by rice consumers; a floor on prices received by paddy producers; and a subsidy on prices paid for seeds by paddy farmers. These programmes have been subject to domestic criticism on allocative efficiency and distributional grounds. We examine the effects of removing the programmes using an economy-wide model with detailed treatment of agricultural activity, land use, and food security measures. We find that the programmes make a small contribution to food security, for a modest budgetary outlay. The allocative efficiency gains available from ending the programmes are small, and may be outweighed by the potential for adverse short-run macroeconomic consequences.     

Crop failure,price regulation,and emergency imports of Japan's rice sector in 1993

In 1993, an extraordinarily cool summer in Japan brought about low rice yields, which caused considerable disturbances to the rice markets. Japan imported a large amount of rice as an emergency measure. Two controversies about Japan's rice policies were raised, particularly in that period. The first centred on the effectiveness of the price regulation policies in stabilizing rice prices and farmers’?incomes. The second involved the newspapers’?arguments that the emergency imports harmed other countries, especially developing countries. These controversies were examined with a world trade computable general equilibrium model.