Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence

This paper presents a time‐series regression analysis of price inflation at the time of the euro currency changeover in January 2002. Cross‐equation tests on 12 euro countries and three non‐euro EU countries are used to identify significant price changes around that time. For a small number of product and service categories, positive price changes immediately after the euro changeover suggest the possible existence of menu costs, sellers' rounding up of prices or buyers' temporary rational inattention. However, the lack of evidence for reduced inflation immediately prior to the euro changeover suggests menu costs are not important.     

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general.     

Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present‐value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non‐fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non‐stationarity within the fundamental present‐value relationship, and of non‐linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non‐fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price‐to‐price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.     

Weintraub's consumption coefficient: some economic implications and evidence for the UK

Weintraub's consumption coefficient, the ratio of total consumerexpenditure to income from employment, helps to elucidate trendsin the sectoral and functional distributions of income. It simplifiesand adds precision to Kaleckian macroeconomics by showing howdistributions of income affect the level of economic activity.Empirical estimates of the coefficient are presented for theUK from 1972 to 1995. From 1975 onwards, the coefficient hasindicated a marked redistribution of income in favour of capitalist(non-employment) income, accompanied by a significant rise inthe average propensity to consume from capitalist (non-employmentincome). Wealth effects induced by the housing boom of the 1980shave enabled capitalists' income and consumption to continueto increase after 1989 despite a fall in investment.     

The oil price shocks and the unit root hypothesis: the UK experience

Critics of the standard Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests for unit roots argue that when there have been significant structural breaks during the sample period, these tests are often biased toward acceptance. Allowing for a one-time change in the slope of the trend function often leads to rejection of the unit-root hypothesis which implies that business cycles are temporary fluctuations around a stable but possibly shifting trend path. The validity of the unit root hypothesis in connection with the two oil crises in the seventies is re-examined using quarterly time-series data for a set of UK macroeconomic series. The empirical evidence presented supports the view that only those shocks associated with the oil price crises had a persistent effect on the UK economy.     

US oil consumption,oil prices,and the macroeconomy

Since the oil price shock of 1973–74, researchers have waged an intense debate regarding the connection between the U.S. energy sector and national income. Studies examining the relationship between oil prices, oil consumption, and real output have produced remarkably mixed results. In particular, the two most widely cited investigations by Darby and Hamilton come to dramatically different conclusions concerning the effect of oil shocks on economic activity. To date, however, studies of this issue have been either correlation based and thus void of causality inferences, have used overly restrictive bivariate causality techniques, or covered periods that exclude major oil price disruptions. This paper analyzes a quarterly multivariate VAR model to investigate the existence and direction of causality between oil prices, oil consumption, real output, and several other key macroeconomic policy variables. Among the key findings is that oil price shocks are not a major cause of U.S. business cycles. Moreover, our findings also suggest that both oil prices and real output cause significant changes in oil consumption without feedback. These results support the contention that a systematic U.S. conservation policy would not significantly impair real economic activity.     

Unions,wages and productivity: some evidence from UK engineering firms

Estimates of union wage and productivity effects are derived using primary micro-level panel data for a sample of firms in the UK engineering industry. Union wage differentials of the order of 10% are suggested from the results, whereas union productivity impacts appear to be non-linear with respect to union density.     

Permanent prices,expected price changes,and the demand for money

This paper investigates the empirical validity of the distinction between measured and permanent prices for cash balance decisions. The use of permanent prices has been advocated by Friedman over twenty five years ago, but the idea has received little attention in the literature. Using Canadian quarterly data, we find that the permanent price hypothesis yields meaningful estimates of the demand for money, but it does not appear to contribute significantly to our understanding of cash balance decisions. A number of assumptions about the relationship between the elasticities of income, price, and price change expectations are tested as well.     

Technology and worker coopratives: some UK evidence and a framework for investigation

This paper considers the relationship between cooperatives i n the ‘new wave’ and the technology they use. Data and examples from the UK are presented to show that there is no general support either for the ‘optimistic’ hypothesis that cooperatives are necessarily able to make humanizing choices about technology or for the ‘pessimistic’ hypothesis that they are completely constrained by technology. A framework is developed for analysing the factors which may or may not allow technological choices. The paper goes on to form a new hypothesis in two parts: firstly, that small firms i n general have more freedom to make choices about technology the more they have independence from large firms and the market, and the more they are i n areas of product innovation, particularly IT-based innovation; secondly, given a degree of freedom to make such choices, the choice is more likely to be made successfully in the direction of humanizing uses of technology the more there is potential for identif;cation between job, product and social or political aims. The paper concludes by describing a research project now under way exploring the relative importance of these factors in established UK worker cooperatives.     

Technology and worker coopratives: some UK evidence and a framework for investigation

This paper considers the relationship between cooperatives i n the 'new wave' and the technology they use. Data and examples from the UK are presented to show that there is no general support either for the 'optimistic' hypothesis that cooperatives are necessarily able to make humanizing choices about technology or for the 'pessimistic' hypothesis that they are completely constrained by technology. A framework is developed for analysing the factors which may or may not allow technological choices. The paper goes on to form a new hypothesis in two parts: firstly, that small firms i n general have more freedom to make choices about technology the more they have independence from large firms and the market, and the more they are i n areas of product innovation, particularly IT-based innovation; secondly, given a degree of freedom to make such choices, the choice is more likely to be made successfully in the direction of humanizing uses of technology the more there is potential for identif;cation between job, product and social or political aims. The paper concludes by describing a research project now under way exploring the relative importance of these factors in established UK worker cooperatives.     

Disability and self-employment: evidence for the UK

This article examines the self-employment decision for disabled and nondisabled workers in the UK. Using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, it is found that self-employment may provide an important means by which those with work-limiting disabilities can accommodate their impairment.     

Costs,prices and profitablity in UK manufacturing

The 1984 input–output tables make it possible to estimate directly the cost structure of any industrial sector. The results of this calculation are presented for the non-food manufacturing sector for the period 1970–87. This cost estimate is found to be part of a co-integrating set with output prices, in contrast to the specification implied by a Cobb–Douglas production function. The other elements of the equilibrium vector are an index of capacity utilization, positively related to the mark-up, and the variance of inflation (proxying inflation uncertainty), which is negatively related. Import prices have an indirect effect on the mark-up, via demand.     

The causal dynamics between renewable energy,real GDP,emissions and oil prices: evidence from OECD countries

This study extends the empirical literature on the determinants of renewable energy consumption in the case of 25 OECD countries for the period 1980–2011. Preliminary analysis suggests the presence of cross-sectional dependence within the panel data. As a result, second-generation panel unit root tests of Smith et al. (2004) and Pesaran (2007) are undertaken to find the respective variables that are integrated of order one. Panel cointegration and error correction modelling reveal that a long-run relationship exists between renewable energy consumption per capita, real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant for real GDP per capita, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and real oil prices. The panel error correction model shows that a feedback relationship exists among the variables.     

Dynamics of money, output and price interaction — some Indian evidence

The present study is an attempt to model the dynamic interactions between money, output and prices in a structural vector autoregression framework. The primary concern of the paper is to examine the sources of variations and response of one variable to changes in others in a system of economic variables in the Indian context. Using quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 1990Q4, we find that structural factors, in addition to monetary factors, play an important role in generating and sustaining the process of inflation and fluctuations in economic activity. An increase in money/credit supply is found to increase output and prices in the short-run and prices in the long-run, while a non-accommodating monetary policy is ineffective in controlling inflation even at the cost of substantial output losses, thereby indicating relative rigidities in price movements. Another interesting finding is that the monetary authority responds differently to different price shocks, exercising its leverage in altering the quantity as well as the composition of aggregate money supply. Our findings also indicate that the economy is characterized by relatively large and infrequent shocks to ‘price/cost’-related factors. Finally, our analysis suggests that a simple monetary targeting without adequate ‘supply side’ measures may not be able to serve the objective of maintaining growth with price stability.     

Trade prices and supply in the UK economy

Current account imbalances are a major source of instability in the world monetary and trading system. Measures to correct these imbalances have largely involved adjustments to exchange rates. In the international trade literature, when the current account is in deficit, the Marshall-Lerner condition is sufficient for a successful devaluation. However, this partial equilibrium condition — apart from being based on the assumption that supply elasticities are infinite — abstracts from how the domestic economy responds to the change in relative prices. In this paper we develop a model of price and output determination in an open economy with imperpectly competitive markets, and draw a distinction between goods which are exported and those which are supplied to the domestic market. This means that we have to determine jointly both export prices and the domestic price of house sales. We show that as long as there is no money illusion in the labour market a fall in the nominal exchange rate raises domestic and export prices proportionally and leaves trade volumes unaffected. However, shifts in domestic absorption relative to overseas demand — by changing relative prices — cause shifts in the relative supply of exports and domestically sold goods and affect the trade balance. Thus fiscal and monetary measures directed towards reducing domestic absorption are more likely to be successful in correcting current account imbalances than exchange rate depreciation.     

Impact of oil price shocks on output,inflation and the real exchange rate: evidence from selected ASEAN countries

This article analyses the impact of oil price shocks on real output, inflation and the real exchange rate in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia (ASEAN-5) using a Structural VAR model. The cointegration tests indicate that the macroeconomic variables of these countries are cointegrated and share common trends in the long run. The impulse response functions reveal that oil price fluctuations do not impact the ASEAN-5 economies in the long run and much of its effect is absorbed within five to six quarters. The variance decomposition results further assert that with a few exceptions oil price shocks do not explain a significant variation in any of the variables under consideration. We also identify a very unique pattern of response to oil price fluctuations between Malaysia and Singapore and between the Philippines and Thailand. The pairs exhibit a high degree of similarity in their responses; they do not share any commonalities across the group.     

Exchange rate pass-through,price discrimination,and US meat export prices

Exports are becoming increasingly important for US livestock and poultry producers. Consequently, meat industry participants are concerned about the potential impacts of variations in relative currency values. These effects are considered by quantifying the impacts of relative exchange rates on US beef, pork and poultry export prices. In addition, the impacts of GATT and NAFTA agreements on exchange rate pass-through are considered. The results indicate incomplete exchange rate pass-through occurs for several countries. Trade liberalization under GATT has positively influenced US beef and poultry export prices.     

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

Structural change,specialization and regional labour market performance: evidence for the UK

While structural change and regional differences in the pattern of employment specialization are widely perceived to be significant factors in accounting for disparities in the labour market performance of regions in the United Kingdom, there have been relatively few recent attempts to gather detailed evidence on this issue. The current study aims to fill this gap by examining the effects of structural change and associated changes in the pattern of employment specialization on three key indicators of regional labour market performance: the rate of employment growth, the unemployment rate and the rate of nonemployment. The findings indicate that while industry structure has statistically significant effects on regional labour market performance, the quantitative significance of these effects is relatively small.