Energy dependence,oil prices and exchange rates: the Dominican economy since 1990

This paper studies the impact that oil prices have had on the floating exchange rate (ER) of the Dominican peso during the 1990–2008 period. The existing empirical literature has documented a link between these two variables for large developed economies and oil-producing countries, always including the 1970s oil crises in their sample periods. Few authors analyze the case of small open economies dependent on oil imports. Since the acceleration of economic growth in the Dominican Republic during the last decade has greatly increased its degree of external energy dependence, this country’s experience presents an ideal case study. We estimate the influence that changes in international gasoline prices have on the real exchange rate between the Dominican peso and the United States dollar. The cointegrated nature of the gasoline price and ER time series are tested and a vector error correction model is developed. Our results indicate that a 10% rise in the price of gas coincides with a 1.2% depreciation of the peso in the long run and that the causality runs from gas prices to the peso.     

Values, prices of production and market prices: some more evidence from the Greek economy

This paper extends the empirical investigation of the relationbetween labour values and different price forms in the caseof the Greek economy. Subjecting the labour theory of valueto empirical tests with data from various countries helps inthe derivation of general conclusions regarding its empiricalvalidity and practical usefulness. Our results on the closenessof values and prices as measured by their absolute deviationand correlation, the shape of the wage–profit curves,the predictive power of labour values over market prices comparedwith other ‘value bases’, and the comparison offundamental Marxian categories when estimated in value and priceterms provide further support for the empirical strength ofthe labour theory of value.     

Transitional price rises with the adoption of the euro: aggregate and disaggregate sector evidence

This paper presents a time‐series regression analysis of price inflation at the time of the euro currency changeover in January 2002. Cross‐equation tests on 12 euro countries and three non‐euro EU countries are used to identify significant price changes around that time. For a small number of product and service categories, positive price changes immediately after the euro changeover suggest the possible existence of menu costs, sellers' rounding up of prices or buyers' temporary rational inattention. However, the lack of evidence for reduced inflation immediately prior to the euro changeover suggests menu costs are not important.     

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general.     

Bubbles in UK house prices: evidence from ESTR models

Recent movements in stock and house prices have led to an examination of the presence of bubbles. Whilst, there is extensive research on stock price data, there is relatively less for house prices. This paper uses a present‐value model for house prices to test for the presence of bubbles. The results support the presence of a non‐fundamental component within UK national and regional house prices. In particular, for the majority of series considered, evidence is presented of linear non‐stationarity within the fundamental present‐value relationship, and of non‐linear stationarity, implying the presence of a non‐fundamental, or bubble, component. Furthermore, evidence is presented that prices adjust quicker when they are below fundamental equilibrium, than when they are above fundamental equilibrium, i.e. there is downward price stickiness. These results support the hypothesis that house price dynamics can be characterised by price‐to‐price momentum. Finally, forecast evidence suggests that real prices are likely to adjust downwards and converge with fundamental value.     

Weintraub's consumption coefficient: some economic implications and evidence for the UK

Weintraub's consumption coefficient, the ratio of total consumerexpenditure to income from employment, helps to elucidate trendsin the sectoral and functional distributions of income. It simplifiesand adds precision to Kaleckian macroeconomics by showing howdistributions of income affect the level of economic activity.Empirical estimates of the coefficient are presented for theUK from 1972 to 1995. From 1975 onwards, the coefficient hasindicated a marked redistribution of income in favour of capitalist(non-employment) income, accompanied by a significant rise inthe average propensity to consume from capitalist (non-employmentincome). Wealth effects induced by the housing boom of the 1980shave enabled capitalists' income and consumption to continueto increase after 1989 despite a fall in investment.     

The oil price shocks and the unit root hypothesis: the UK experience

Critics of the standard Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests for unit roots argue that when there have been significant structural breaks during the sample period, these tests are often biased toward acceptance. Allowing for a one-time change in the slope of the trend function often leads to rejection of the unit-root hypothesis which implies that business cycles are temporary fluctuations around a stable but possibly shifting trend path. The validity of the unit root hypothesis in connection with the two oil crises in the seventies is re-examined using quarterly time-series data for a set of UK macroeconomic series. The empirical evidence presented supports the view that only those shocks associated with the oil price crises had a persistent effect on the UK economy.     

Unions,wages and productivity: some evidence from UK engineering firms

Estimates of union wage and productivity effects are derived using primary micro-level panel data for a sample of firms in the UK engineering industry. Union wage differentials of the order of 10% are suggested from the results, whereas union productivity impacts appear to be non-linear with respect to union density.     

Permanent prices,expected price changes,and the demand for money

This paper investigates the empirical validity of the distinction between measured and permanent prices for cash balance decisions. The use of permanent prices has been advocated by Friedman over twenty five years ago, but the idea has received little attention in the literature. Using Canadian quarterly data, we find that the permanent price hypothesis yields meaningful estimates of the demand for money, but it does not appear to contribute significantly to our understanding of cash balance decisions. A number of assumptions about the relationship between the elasticities of income, price, and price change expectations are tested as well.     

US oil consumption,oil prices,and the macroeconomy

Since the oil price shock of 1973–74, researchers have waged an intense debate regarding the connection between the U.S. energy sector and national income. Studies examining the relationship between oil prices, oil consumption, and real output have produced remarkably mixed results. In particular, the two most widely cited investigations by Darby and Hamilton come to dramatically different conclusions concerning the effect of oil shocks on economic activity. To date, however, studies of this issue have been either correlation based and thus void of causality inferences, have used overly restrictive bivariate causality techniques, or covered periods that exclude major oil price disruptions. This paper analyzes a quarterly multivariate VAR model to investigate the existence and direction of causality between oil prices, oil consumption, real output, and several other key macroeconomic policy variables. Among the key findings is that oil price shocks are not a major cause of U.S. business cycles. Moreover, our findings also suggest that both oil prices and real output cause significant changes in oil consumption without feedback. These results support the contention that a systematic U.S. conservation policy would not significantly impair real economic activity.     

The effect of oil prices on stock prices: fresh evidence from asymmetric causality tests

This article investigates the causal impact of oil prices on stock prices in each G7 market as well as in the world market. An asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-J is used for this purpose. Since the underlying data appears to be non-normal with time-varying volatility, we use bootstrap simulations with leverage adjustments in order to produce more reliable critical values than the asymptotic ones. Based on symmetric causality tests, we find no causal effect of oil prices on the stock prices of the world market or any of the G7 countries. However, when we apply an asymmetric causality test, we find that increasing oil prices cause stock prices to rise in the world, the U.S. and Japan while decreasing oil prices cause stock prices to fall in Germany. This may imply that the world, the U.S. and Japanese stock markets consider increases in oil prices as an indicator of good news as this may mean that there is an increase in oil demand due to an expected growth in the economy while the German stock market treats decreasing oil prices as a signal of an expected contraction in the economy.     

Technology and worker coopratives: some UK evidence and a framework for investigation

This paper considers the relationship between cooperatives i n the 'new wave' and the technology they use. Data and examples from the UK are presented to show that there is no general support either for the 'optimistic' hypothesis that cooperatives are necessarily able to make humanizing choices about technology or for the 'pessimistic' hypothesis that they are completely constrained by technology. A framework is developed for analysing the factors which may or may not allow technological choices. The paper goes on to form a new hypothesis in two parts: firstly, that small firms i n general have more freedom to make choices about technology the more they have independence from large firms and the market, and the more they are i n areas of product innovation, particularly IT-based innovation; secondly, given a degree of freedom to make such choices, the choice is more likely to be made successfully in the direction of humanizing uses of technology the more there is potential for identif;cation between job, product and social or political aims. The paper concludes by describing a research project now under way exploring the relative importance of these factors in established UK worker cooperatives.     

Technology and worker coopratives: some UK evidence and a framework for investigation

This paper considers the relationship between cooperatives i n the ‘new wave’ and the technology they use. Data and examples from the UK are presented to show that there is no general support either for the ‘optimistic’ hypothesis that cooperatives are necessarily able to make humanizing choices about technology or for the ‘pessimistic’ hypothesis that they are completely constrained by technology. A framework is developed for analysing the factors which may or may not allow technological choices. The paper goes on to form a new hypothesis in two parts: firstly, that small firms i n general have more freedom to make choices about technology the more they have independence from large firms and the market, and the more they are i n areas of product innovation, particularly IT-based innovation; secondly, given a degree of freedom to make such choices, the choice is more likely to be made successfully in the direction of humanizing uses of technology the more there is potential for identif;cation between job, product and social or political aims. The paper concludes by describing a research project now under way exploring the relative importance of these factors in established UK worker cooperatives.     

Collaboration and firm size: some evidence from the UK defence industry

This paper presents evidence on the relationship between collaboration and firm size derived from an empirical study of the UK defence industry. The results indicate that size has a positive impact on collaboration and, in particular, with the propensity to collaborate with overseas firms. However, size has no impact on the propensity to collaborate with UK partners. This lends support to theories which emphasize the resource constraints facing small firms in developing international collaboration. There is a need for a policy debate concerning mechanisms to promote collaboration to assist small firms to realise the benefits of international collaboration.     

Convenient prices,cash payments and price rigidity

Recent works suggest that convenient prices that match monetary denominations exhibit above-average price rigidity and are set up by firms that have incentives to be paid in cash. The relationship between convenient prices and cash usage has however never been explicitly examined. This paper proposes a model that relates convenient prices to cash usage and exploits to test it a unique dataset in 2011 on cash payments and prices by a representative sample of French consumers. In line with the model, estimation results bring direct evidence that individuals' shares of cash payments increase with convenient prices. This finding confirms that price rigidity can be in part explained by the use of cash to pay convenient prices.     

A fractionally integrated model with a mean shift for the US and the UK real oil prices

In this article, we have modeled the log of the US and the UK real oil prices in terms of fractionally integrated processes with a mean shift. We used different versions of the tests of Robinson (1994), which have standard null and local limit distributions. The results indicated that if we model the series without a mean shift, then they are both non-stationary I(1). However, by including a mean shift component during the oil crises, they become fractionally integrated with an order of integration smaller than one and, thus, showing mean reverting behavior.     

Wages and prices in the UK

This paper investigates the relationship between wages and prices in the UK using a VECM formulation and generalized impulse response functions and persistence profiles. Because of significant feedbacks, it finds that fluctuations in wage growth cannot be used directly to predict fluctuations in inflation.     

Money,activity and prices: Some inter-country evidence

The paper explores the relationships between monetary variables and real economic activity and prices in the six largest industrialized economies. Univariate and multivariate time series forecasting models are used to break down monetary policy variables into anticipated and unanticipated components. Overall monetary policy variables, particularly domestic credit expansion, appear to be significant leading indicators for subsequent real economic activity and prices. Additionally, anticipated components of monetary policy are shown to have as much forecasting ability for subsequently realized economic variables as unanticipated components. This does not appear to be consistent with the implications of pure rational expectations models. It was also noted that results differed significantly according to the choice of monetary variable and across individual countries. In particular the results implied no contradiction with previous findings for the impact of unanticipated money supply in the U.S., though such contradictions would have appeared if DCE had been used as the monetary variable.     

Disability and self-employment: evidence for the UK

This article examines the self-employment decision for disabled and nondisabled workers in the UK. Using Labour Force Survey (LFS) data, it is found that self-employment may provide an important means by which those with work-limiting disabilities can accommodate their impairment.