Cross-country alcohol consumption comparison: an application of the Rotterdam demand system

This paper analyses the consumption patterns of the three beverages beer, wine and spirits in nine countries, Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US, using the Rotterdam demand system. A cross-country comparison of the results shows that in most countries (i)wine consumption has grown at a fasteer rate than beer and spirits; (ii) the proportion of consumers' expenditure on alcohol is declining; (iii)beer is a necessity and spirits is a luxury; (iv)the demand for the three beverages is price inelastic; and (iv)all three beverages are pair-wise substitutes. We also investigated the hypothesis of identical parameters for all countries by pooling the data across countries and found that the data do not support the hypothesis.     

Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

Welfare analysis in a two-stage inverse demand model: an application to harvest changes in the Chesapeake Bay

Like many agricultural commodities, fish and shellfish are highly perishable and producers cannot easily adjust supply in the short run to respond to changes in demand. In these cases it is more appropriate to conduct welfare analysis using inverse demand models that take quantities as given and allow prices to adjust to clear the market. One challenge faced by economists conducting demand analysis is how to limit the number of commodities in the analysis while accounting for the relevant substitutability and complementarity among goods. A common approach in direct demand modeling is to assume weak separability of the utility function and apply a multi-stage budgeting approach. This approach has not, however, been applied to an inverse demand system or the associated welfare analysis. This paper develops a two-stage inverse demand model and derives the total quantity flexibilities which describe how market clearing prices respond to supply changes in other commodity groups. The model provides the means to estimate consumer welfare impacts of an increase in finfish and shellfish harvest from the Chesapeake Bay while recognizing that harvests from other regions are potential substitutes. Comparing the two-stage results with single-stage analysis of the same data shows that ignoring differentiation of harvests from different regions, or the availability of substitutes not affected by a supply shock, can bias welfare estimates.     

Estimation of an effectively globally regular demand system: An application to United States meat consumption

A combination of Cooper and McLaren's modified almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and Moschini's semiflexible AIDS specification gives an effective globally regular demand system. Using the United States meat price and consumption data, the effectively globally regular demand system was estimated and compared to Cooper and McLaren's modified AIDS. The Likelihood Dominance Criterion showed that Cooper and McLaren's modified AIDS was actually better model than the effectively globally regular demand system proposed. The reason may be due to the fact that the violation of the curvature conditions is not significant for the given data. First Version Received: September 1998/Final Version Received: April 2001     

Goodness-of-fit techniques for count data models: an application to the demand for dental care in Spain

This paper compares the practical performance of alternative goodness-of-fit techniques for count data models in the context of a study of the determinants of demand for dental care in Spain. We apply alternative goodness-of-fit techniques to different specifications. In particular, we implement recently proposed specification tests which are consistent in the direction of general nonparametric alternatives. The analysis suggests that a negative binomial model is an appropriate specification for dental care demand. Dental health and income are identified as important predictors of individuals' behavior. First version received: April 2000/Final version received: March 2001     

Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis for censored data: an application to antiplatelet therapy

Abstract

Objective:

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) on trial-based data has played an important role in pharmacoeconomics. A regression model can be used to account for patient-level heterogeneity throughout covariates adjustment in CEA. However, the estimates from CEA could be biased if ignoring the censoring issue on effectiveness and costs. This study is to propose a regression model to account for both time-to-event effectiveness and cost.

Methods:

A bivariate regression model was proposed to analyze both effectiveness and cost simultaneously, while censored observations were also taken into account. The regression coefficients were estimated using a Bayesian approach by drawing a random sample from their posterior distribution derived from the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The proposed method was illustrated using empirical data of anti-platelet therapies to the management of cardiovascular diseases for those patients with high risk of gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, where cost-effectiveness between different therapies was analyzed under both censored and non-censored circumstances, where the effectiveness was defined as the time to re-hospitalization due to GI complications, and the cost was measured by the total drug expenditure.

Results:

Under censored circumstances, aspirin plus proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) was considered more cost-effective than clopidogrel with/without PPIs, as shown in the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve, and clopidogrel was preferred to aspirin for a willingness-to-pay of 89 NTD for delaying 1 day to hospitalization due to GI complications.

Conclusions:

Ignoring censoring problems could possibly bias the results in CEA. This study has provided an appropriate method to conduct regression-based CEA to improve the estimation which serves its purpose for CEA concerns.

Limitations:

The normality assumption for the cost and effectiveness in the bivariate normal regression needs to be examined, and the conclusions may be biased if this assumption is violated. However, when sample size is sufficiently large, a slight deviation from normality would not be a serious problem.     

Spatial shift-share analysis versus spatial filtering: an application to Spanish employment data

The aim of this work is to analyse the influence of spatial effects in the evolution of regional employment, thus improving the explanation of the existing differences. With this aim, two non-parametric techniques are proposed: spatial shift-share analysis and spatial filtering. Spatial shift-share models based on previously defined spatial weights matrix allow the identification and estimation of the spatial effects. Furthermore, spatial filtering techniques can be used in order to remove the effects of spatial correlation, thus allowing the decomposition of the employment variation into two components, respectively related to the spatial and structural effects. The application of both techniques to the spatial analysis of regional employment in Spain leads to some interesting findings and shows the main advantages and limitations of each of the considered procedures, together with the quantification of their sensitivity with regard to the considered weights matrix.     

Divisia moments of Greek consumption

Greek consumption data, 1951–1984, are used to compute Divisia moments. Quantity variances tend to exceed price variances and the price-quantity covariance is mostly negative. In periods of high inflation the price variance increases, while both the price–quantity correlation and the income flexibility decrease.     

Linear SAM models for inequality changes analysis: an application to the Extremadurian economy

Social accounting matrices are adequate databases for the economic modelling. These matrices emphasize the role of households in the economy, and so, they usually disaggregate the household sector into several groups. This disaggregation allows social accounting matrices to be used for diverse income distribution analysis. The objective of this work is to use the linear SAM models to study how inequality is modified by several exogenous injections of income. The set of multipliers and indicators presented is applied to the economy of Extremadura – a region situated in the southwest of Spain. In particular, together with the accounting multipliers, two redistributed income matrices are presented to show how changes in final demand and in income transfers cause opposite effects in inequality. For contrasting these results, Gini and Theil indices are also used. Finally, a major reduction in both would result from an appropriate re-allocation of transfers.     

Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data

The paper estimates inflation persistence in Greece from 1975 to 2003, a period of high variation in inflation and changes in policy regimes. Two empirical methodologies, univariate autoregressive (AR) modelling and second-generation random coefficient (RC) modelling, are employed to estimate inflation persistence. The empirical results from all the procedures suggest that inflation persistence was high till 1996, while it started to decline after 1997, when inflationary expectations seem to have been stabilised, and thus, monetary policy was effective at reducing inflation. Empirical findings also detect a sluggish response of inflation to changes in monetary policy. This observed delay seems to have changed little over time.

The US retail demand for fish products: an application of the almost ideal demand system

The main objective is to address the limitations of past US fish demand research through the development of a variation of the almost ideal demand system model for disaggregate fish products at the retail level. Price and expenditure elasticities, as well as elasticities of substitution between fish products and other protein commodities, determined from this work may be used in the context of fisheries management and market development and promotion. Results indicate that with the exception of shellfish, demand for the various fish products is relatively inelastic. Cross-price elasticities are generally moderate while expenditure elasticities are large and positive for fresh fish and shellfish. Demographic effects, especially geographical division, season, race, occupation, age–sex household composition, and price–income interaction, as a proxy for quality, are highly significant variables.     

An analysis of asymmetric demand response to price changes: The case of local telephone calls

Asymmetric demand responses to price changes are not an observable implication of classical demand theory, which predicts that consumers will react to a small price increase in much the same way as they do to a small price decrease. Yet applied researchers have long speculated that consumers are more sensitive to price increases than they are to price decreases. In addition, recent empirical studies generally support the theory of asymmetric demand responses. We construct a dynamic model based on data gathered from monthly telephone bills for 128 New York Telephone customers over a five-year period. Our results support the conclusion that customers react more quickly and strongly when prices go up than they do when prices go down.We would like to thank Manny Haas and Bernie Reddy for their comments and suggestions.     

The theory of rational random behavior and its application to demand analysis

The author's theory of rational random behavior is developed, which distinguishes between the planning and the implementation stage of the decision-maker. Under the assumption of a quadratic loss function and decision variables with an unrestricted range, that theory implies normally distributed disturbances of behavioral equations with a covariance matrix that is known up to a scalar multiple. Those results have to be extended asymptotically by Barbosa for restricted decision variables and a more general loss function. The approach is applied to both the Rotterdam and the linear expenditure demand models: using U.S. postwar data for the former, the author finds that a likelihood ratio test accepts the theory at the 10 percent significance level.     

A globally flexible,quadratic almost ideal demand system: an application to demand for meats and fish in Taiwan

A new demand system, called a globally flexible, quadratic almost ideal demand system (GF–QUAIDS), integrates both the quadratic Engel curve and the Fourier series. This novel GF–QUAIDS model is applied to study the demand for meats and fish in Taiwan. Empirical results show that the GF–QUAIDS fits the data well and that, by using the likelihood ratio test, its nested models are rejected, including the locally flexible functional form and the linear Engel curve. Nevertheless, other empirical model-selection measures indicate that the GF–QUAIDS can be as good as its famous nested models such as the AIDS, QUAIDS and GF–AIDS.     

Examining the consistency of spatial association patterns across socio-economic indicators: an application to the Greek regions

This paper addresses an important empirical question for spatial economics that has so far attracted little attention in the literature, namely, how patterns of spatial association differ across socio-economic indicators. This issue is examined here with a large socio-economic dataset from the Greek prefectures. We start by identifying spatial patterns of association in the data through an exploratory spatial data analysis and then explore the persistence of spatial clustering across socio-economic indicators through the application of a number of simple statistical tests. Greece presents an interesting case for examination, given its complex nature of geographical disparities and spatial heterogeneity. The derived results are important for Greek regional policy, as they help highlight yet another dimension of the challenges it faces for regional development, but they are also of particular relevance for applied spatial analysis, as they offer new insights in the analysis of spatial processes. Earlier versions of this paper have been presented in the 2005 RSAI (British and Irish Section) conference in Stratford-upon-Avon and the 2006 International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics in Rome. I am thankful to participants in these two conferences for useful comments and suggestions. I have also benefited from comments by Andreas Antoniadis, Giuseppe Arbia, Badi Baltagi, Eckhard Bode, Yiannis Chorianopoulos, Bernard Fingelton, Ian Gordon, Stamatis Kalogirou, Yiannis Kaplanis, Yiannis Psycharis and two anonymous referees. All errors and omissions remain with the author.     

Regional consumption of antibiotics: A demand system approach

Through this paper, we have attempted to model the demand for different classes of antibiotics used for respiratory infections in outpatient care in Switzerland using a spatial version of the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. This model takes spatial dependency into account by means of spatial lags of antibiotic budget shares. We control for the health status of patients and the potential harmful effects of antibiotic use in terms of bacterial resistance. Elasticities to socioeconomic determinants of consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities between different groups of antibiotic have also been computed in this paper. Significant cross-price elasticities are found between newer or more expensive generations and older or less expensive generations of antibiotics.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of underreported count data with an application to worker absenteeism

A new approach for modeling under-reported Poisson counts is developed. The parameters of the model are estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. An application to workers absenteeism data from the German Socio-Economic Panel illustrates the fruitfulness of the approach. Worker absenteeism and the level of pay are unrelated, but absence rates increase with firm size.     

Food consumption in urban China: an empirical analysis

This paper examines consumption patterns of urban households in China using aggregated household consumption data. A demand system comprising six commodities (rice,pork,vegetables,fish,eggs and fruits) is estimated using a two-stage budgeting procedure which incorporates an almost ideal deamnd system (AIDS) in each stage, Elasticity estimates from the system are plausible and consistent with other relevant studies. Results from this study strengthen the evidence of the emergence of a large Chinese market for non-stable food. The study provides rationale and basis for additional research into Chinese food consumption, especially processed food.     

Instability in cointegration regressions: a brief review with an application to money demand in Portugal

This study addresses some modelling questions related to the possibility of structural change in models with nonstationary variables. Focusing on cointegration issues, some methodological aspects are discussed, attempting to integrate coherently the several steps of the modelling strategy. These range from unit root to cointegration testing and to testing for instability in the cointegration vector. An empirical example with Portuguese data tries to illustrate the usefulness of this approach, where a simple money demand function is estimated using an error-correction model (ECM). If a break is explicitly allowed in the cointegration vector the forecasting performance of the ECM improves.     

Determinants of demand for green products: An application to eco-label demand for fish in Europe

In this paper, we confront the theoretical motivations of the consumption of eco-friendly products and the factors influencing the European perceptions regarding the fact that “fish caught using an environmentally friendly technique may carry a special label”. We take advantage of the recent integration of non-economic elements in the microeconomic analysis of consumers' behavior in order to highlight the factors leading to their demand for green products. Thanks to an original European survey on seafood product carried out on more than 5000 consumers, we test the influence of intrinsic motivation, information, localization and socio-economic factors on the demand for an eco-label for fish.Our results show a significant connection between the desire for eco-labeling and seafood features, especially the freshness of the fish, the geographical origin of the fish and the wild vs farmed origin of the fish. Moreover, we prove the major role played by the fish price. We also demonstrate that the ecological issue regarding fisheries is highly connected to consumer information, intrinsic motivation and socio-economic status: the typical “green fish consumer” is a young woman, well educated, well informed on the state of marine resources and not very trusting of the regulation of the fisheries. Consumers who are aware of the importance of marine resource preservation have the same profile.