Public capital,deficit financing,and economic growth in a stochastic economy

This paper examines the relationship among deficit-financing fiscal policy, risk and economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model with private and public capital. We show that there are positive balanced-growth rate and a debt-to-GDP ratio that depend on deep parameters such as the income tax rate and the standard deviation of the growth rate of private and public capital. Investment and fiscal shocks influence the mean and variance of the growth rate and the debt dependency rate through portfolio changes and capital accumulation. In particular, an increase in the risk of private investment destabilizes the economy and reduces the mean growth rate if the portfolio change is drastic, and this increase in risk increases the debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, an increase in the income tax rate stabilizes the economy, increases the mean growth rate, and has a positive or negative effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio according to the ratio of public to private capital if the income tax rate is sufficiently small.     

Government debt maturity and debt dynamics in euro area countries

This paper studies the impact of debt maturity on the dynamics of sovereign debt of Euro Area (EA) countries. Due to lack of data, this key issue had not been studied before. Thus, my first contribution is to build a new comprehensive database of sovereign debt stocks and yields, at all different maturities, for six EA countries in 1991–2013: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain. In general, since 1991, interests rates in the EA have fallen while Treasuries in the region extended debt maturity; thus, an increasing number of long-term bondholders experienced large capital gains. I show with counterfactual simulations the effect of a different maturity structure on the evolution of debt. My analysis suggests that extending debt maturity in 2013–2015 would result in lower debt ratios by 2022. I also estimate the impact on EA debt-to-GDP ratios induced by changes in current and future inflation. My estimates indicate that higher (lower) inflation in EA countries would lower (raise) their fiscal burden much more than in the US.     

Household debt,macroprudential rules,and monetary policy

Today's Canadian economy features a historic high of household debt and persistently low growth rate. The average debt-to-GDP ratio has reached the level experienced in the U.S. just prior to the recent financial crisis. In this paper, we ask whether monetary policy should lean against the household indebtedness or macroprudential policies are better suited for the task. To provide a quantitative answer, we develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a micro-founded banking sector. We estimate the model using Canadian data and conduct policy experiments. Our findings favor macroprudential approach to reining in indebtedness: using monetary policy that reacts to household debt increases inflation volatility and lowers borrowers' welfare, while using macroprudential policies such as lowering the loan-to-value ratio limit increases borrowers' welfare.     

Inflation and Exchange Rate Targeting Challenges Under Fiscal Dominance

Countries have significantly increased their public-sector borrowing since the Global Financial Crisis. As a consequence, monetary authorities may face pressure to deviate from their policy targets in ways designed to ease the debt burden. In view of this consideration, we test for greater fiscal dominance over 2000-2017 under Inflation Targeting (IT) and non-IT regimes. We find that evidence of fiscal dominance varies across countries and debt configurations. Higher ratios of public debt-to-GDP may appear associated with lower policy interest rates in advanced economies. However, a declining natural rate of interest largely explains the pattern of lower rates and higher debt in these countries. The most robust evidence of fiscal dominance lies among emerging markets under non-IT regimes, composed mostly of exchange rate targeters. For these countries, policy interest rates are non-linearly associated with public debt levels, depending on both the level of hard-currency public debt-to-GDP and the currency composition of public debt. We also show that emerging market economies with greater exchange rate volatility, inflation volatility, and underlying commodity exposure exhibit stronger associations between public debt and policy interest rates.     

Underground economy and aggregate fluctuations

This paper explores the role of underground economic activities as an explanation of differences in registered aggregate fluctuations. In order to do so, we introduce an underground economy sector in an otherwise standard Real Business Cycle model and calibrate it to the USA economy. We find that, at low frequencies, Europe fluctuates more than the USA, while its participation rate is smaller. The existence of underground activities rationalizes the negative relationship between participation rates and fluctuations of registered output. Our model accounts for 44.3% of the differences in aggregate fluctuations between the USA and European economies. Finally, the model generates implied sizes of the underground economy of 3.2% and 7% of the American and European output, respectively, which are in the range of those found in the empirical literature.     

Exchange rate management and stabilization policies in developing countries

We outline three channels via which a devaluation has a direct contractionaly impact on the aggregate supply side of the economy: local currency costs of intermediate imports, wage indexing in the presence of food imports and reduced volume of real credit to firms. Contractionary effects via the supply side are more damaging than Krugman-Taylor effects via aggregate demand since a cut in aggregate supply leads to upward pressure on inflation while a cut in aggregate demand tends to abate inflation. Upward pressure on inflation may over time threaten the increase in competitiveness a nominal devaluation also intends to achieve. We also discuss the implications of a substantial foreign debt. We demonstrate that a successful devaluation raises the real (in terms of domestic goods) debt service burden, causing a Krugman-Taylor like contractionary effect on aggregate demand. We then analyse the effects of a preannounced slowdown of the rate of depreciation. Our results of course do not imply that a devaluation should never be considered. They do suggest, however, that a devaluation is likely to be an ineffective tool for demand management since it may cut aggregate supply as much or more in the short run.     

Aggregate stability under a budget rule and labor mobility

Whether a balanced budget rule stabilizes or destabilizes an economy depends on various factors such as the production function or the instrument used to balance the budget. This paper argues that migration, which has widely been neglected in the literature, also affects equilibrium properties. We study the effect of pro-cyclical labor mobility in a neoclassical growth model with public debt and a balanced budget requirement. Labor mobility can destabilize the economy due to external effects. After a negative shock hits the economy, living abroad becomes relatively more attractive, resulting in out-migration. This increases per capita public debt as migrants leave behind their implicit liabilities. The government increases tax rates to satisfy the balanced budget requirement, which further depresses the economy and increases out-migration. The destabilizing effect of public debt kicks in at only slightly higher debt levels than the ones observed in the Euro area after the financial crisis.     

Size,trend, and policy implications of the underground economy

We study the underground economy within a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium framework. Our model combines limited tax enforcement with an otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical stochastic growth model. The Bayesian estimation of the model based on Italian data provides evidence in favor of an important underground sector in Italy, with a size that has increased steadily over the whole sample period. We show that this pattern is due to a steady increase in taxation. Fiscal policy experiments suggest that a moderate tax cut, along with a stronger effort in the monitoring process, causes a sizeable reduction in the size of the underground economy and provides a positive stimulus for the regular economy. Both of these effects jointly increase total fiscal revenues.     

The Greek economic crisis: causes and alternative policies

The Greek economic crisis is primarily structural and the result of an international economic impasse that developed in 2007, with devastating implications for the struggling peripheral economies of Europe. This article suggests that falling profitability led to the stagnation of profits, which in turn discouraged new investment, decreased production and increased unemployment. The resulting recessionary economic environment, in conjunction with the mounting public debt and the austerity policies imposed on the Greek economy by the so-called ‘troika’ of creditors in 2010, has decimated the Greek economy even further, causing one of the worst economic crises since the Second World War. The article also provides some broad guidelines for an alternative economic policy.     

Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s

This paper investigates the dynamic relationships among income distribution, debt ratio and capital accumulation in the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. One explanation for the relatively slow growth of the Brazilian economy is the relatively low rate of investment. The paper presents an econometric model, based on Nishi, to investigate the causes of instability in investment in the period. It concludes that the Brazilian economy since the economic opening presents a debt-burdened pattern of capital accumulation.     

The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area

This paper investigates the average impact of government debt on per-capita GDP growth in twelve euro area countries over a period of about 40 years starting in 1970. It finds a non-linear impact of debt on growth with a turning point – beyond which the government debt-to-GDP ratio has a negative impact on long-term growth – at about 90–100% of GDP. Confidence intervals for the debt turning point suggest that the negative growth effect of high debt may start already from levels of around 70 to 80% of GDP. The channels through which government debt is found to have a non-linear impact on the economic growth rate are private saving, public investment and total factor productivity.     

Determinants of bank risk behaviour in EMU countries

This article investigates the determinants of banking sector risk behaviour in EMU countries over the period 2004Q4–2013Q3. Average ‘Distance-to-default (DtD)’ based on all publicly listed banks headquartered in a particular country is used as an indicator of banking risk. Macroeconomic fundamentals, market sentiments and gross debt-to-GDP together with private debt are considered as factors explaining risk behaviour. Using a panel framework, I found that the market sentiments, debt-to-GDP ratio and nonfinancial institutions debt significantly affect banking sector fragility.     

Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent.     

Problems measuring the underground economy in transition1

An easy and popular method for measuring the size of the underground economy is to use macro data such as money demand or electricity demand to infer what the legitimate economy needs, and then to attribute the remaining consumption to the underground economy. Such inferences rely on the stability of parameters of the money demand and electricity demand equations, or at very least on knowledge of how these parameters are changing. We argue that the pace of change of these parameters is too variable in transition economies for the above methods of estimating the size of the underground economy to be applicable. We make our point by using Czech Republic and other transition country data from the financial and electricity sectors.     

The perils of debt deflation in the Euro area: a multi regime model

Academic research and policy makers in the Euro area are currently concerned with the threat of debt deflation and secular stagnation in Europe. Empirical evidence seems to suggest that secular stagnation and debt deflation in the Euro area may be rather slowly developing. Yet what appears as major peril is that debt deflation with a lack of economic growth, rising real interest rates and further rising debt may trigger household defaults, defaults of firms and banks, rise of risk premia, and default risk of certain sectors of the economy or sovereign defaults. It is this rising default and financial risk that may lead to a regime change to a slowly moving debt crisis with high financial risk and high financial stress. In order to explore those issues, a macro policy model of Svensson type is introduced, exhibiting a regime of low and high financial stress. Then, a four dimensional multi-regime VAR is employed to an Euro area data set to support the theoretical model and the claim that in particular Southern Euro area countries are affected by debt deflation and financial market stress.     

Crowding-in and crowding-out effects of public investments in the Portuguese economy

This study analyses the effects of public and private investment on Portuguese GDP in the period 1960–2013. After a review of the literature based on works developed in the context of VAR analyses, an alternative econometric strategy is proposed. We opt for ADL models using the methodology of Krolzig-Hendry-Doornik. We estimate direct effects of public and private investments on themselves and also a system of simultaneous equations and calculate the multipliers of the exogenous variables, represented by the current external transfers, the short-run nominal interest rate and public debt ratio. Additionally, we tested a model with the first three equations of the system, using beyond those variables the real exchange rate as an exogenous variable. The results point to the existence of a complementarity between private investment and public investment rather than any idea of substitutability. We find that public debt has important negative effects on public and private investments and consequently on output. Public investment has positive effects on output and on private investment. The appreciation of the real exchange rate has an important and long-lasting negative effect upon output, confirming the presence of a mechanism associated with a Dutch-disease phenomenon in the Portuguese economy.     

Assessing the impact of the 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy: A small macroeconometric model

This paper examines the impact of the Athens 2004 Olympic Games on the Greek economy. Using a small aggregate macroeconometric model we find evidence to support the view that the Olympics is an event that could successfully boost the economy of the host city by generating benefits that outweigh the preparation cost. Consistent with recent literature in this area, whilst the impact effects are quite strong during the preparation phase and the year the Games took place, the long-term economic legacy effects appear to be quite modest.     

Housing prices,stock prices and the US economy

This paper studies the relationship between housing prices, stock prices, interest rates and aggregate output in the US using monthly data from 1993 to 2014. Evidence from causality tests and a variance decomposition procedure suggest that stock prices have a much larger effect on aggregate output in the US economy than do either housing prices or interest rates. Instead, the wealth effect created by changes in stock prices has a relatively large impact on US aggregate output. Separate estimations and variance decompositions for the sample periods 1993–2001, 2002–2008 and 2009–2014 show that the impact of housing prices relative to stock prices has been waning over time.     

The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector

The purpose of this paper is to develop Minskyan financial fragility indices for the government sector and to examine the financial structure of the Greek government before and after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2009. We provide empirical evidence that clearly shows the growing financial fragility of the Greek public sector in the 2000s. We also assess the effectiveness of the implemented bailout adjustment programmes in Greece and claim that the conducted austerity measures and fiscal consolidation have not significantly improved the financial posture of the Greek government sector. We argue that the implementation of fiscal and wage austerity in an economy that lacks structural competitiveness produces prolonged recession and unemployment with adverse feedback effects on the financial fragility of the government.     

Stories,Fables, Parables,and Myths: Greece and the Euro Crisis,Toward a New Narrative

The debt crisis in the Eurozone has generated an intense academic debate about the appropriate policy response to the crisis. At the same time, the general public hears a variety of stories about the crisis, and especially stories about the debt crisis in Greece. This paper deals with the economic significance of stories, in particular with the importance of the Greek "morality tale." Stories are powerful in influencing public psychology, and they can affect the economy through fluctuations in confidence and "animal spirits." The paper considers the development of the Greek story through a web of related stories, fables, parables, and myths. It argues that the story dramatically distorts the reality of the debt crisis in the Eurozone and poses a threat to the global economy through its adverse effects on confidence and "animal spirits." It concludes that Europe needs not only a new policy direction, but also a new narrative about the debt crisis.