Tax reform in Georgia and the size of the shadow economy

This study applies three different methods widely used in the literature to track changes in shadow economic activity in Georgia following a drastic tax reform in 2005. The first method is a currency demand approach based on macrolevel data. The second and third methods rely on micro level data from household surveys. Overall, we find evidence that the amount of income underreporting decreased in the years following the reform. The biggest change is observed for households headed by a farmer, followed by ‘other’ types of households where the head does not report any working status. Employed and self‐employed households appear very similar before the tax reform and show minimal adjustment in income reporting in the post‐reform period. Results, however, suggest that much of any difference may have come from increased enforcement efforts rather than rate changes.     

The effect of monetary and fiscal credibility on public debt: empirical evidence from the Brazilian economy

This study relates to the literature regarding credibility effect on public debt for developing economies under inflation targeting. The novelty is the investigation of effects of both monetary and fiscal credibility on public debt and its management. The main idea is that high credibility might improve public debt management. With this purpose, this paper addresses empirical evidence based on the Brazilian experience. The findings denote that credibility is an important instrument to improve the public debt management under inflation targeting.     

Unemployment and the shadow economy

Current research links the shadow economy (SE) and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate. This article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the SE as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates. This link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates (such as Greece and Spain) and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates (such as Germany and Italy). Unemployment’s contribution to the SE is shown to be significant, especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008. The calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution. The common criticism that SE estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates, and the large size of the SE in Greece and Spain is once again confirmed.     

The size and development of the shadow economy: An empirical investigation from states of India

Using the state level data from India, this paper investigates the size of the hidden economy in Indian states over the period 1974/75 to 1995/96. Our analysis has shown that after liberalization of the Indian economy in 1991/92, the growth in the size of the hidden economy has decreased on an average. Our results show that the growth in the size of the hidden economy is approximately 4% less in scheduled election years than in all other years. We also demonstrate that the growth is significantly lower in those states where the coalition government is in power. An increased growth of newspapers and the literacy rates translate to cleaner governance, e.g. to fewer amounts of shadow economy activities in the economy.     

Corporate labour share of income and the shadow economy: a cross-country analysis

This article addresses a link between the size of the shadow economy and the corporate labour share of income in the European Union. Fixed individual and time effects models suggest that there is a negative link between these two indicators. The coefficients are statistically significant if we control for other variables related to labour markets, such as unemployment rates or strictness of employment protection (regular contracts). Depending on the exact model specification, our estimates suggest that an increase in the shadow economy by 1% of GDP results in a 0.5–1% decline in the labour share of income in the corporate sector.     

The underground economy and its macroeconomic consequences

This study develops a dynamic general equilibrium model in which optimizing agents evade taxes by operating in the underground economy. The cost to firms of evading taxes is that they find themselves subject to credit rationing from banks. Our model simulations show that in the absence of budgetary flexibility to adjust expenditures, raising tax rates too high drives firms into the underground economy, thereby reducing the tax base. Aggregate investment in the economy is lowered because of credit rationing. Taxes that are too low eliminate the underground economy, but result in unsustainable budget and trade deficits. Thus, the optimal rate of taxation, from a macroeconomic point of view, may lead to some underground activity.     

The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non-linear ARDL models. The use of the non-linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure.     

The financial fragility and the crisis of the Greek government sector

The purpose of this paper is to develop Minskyan financial fragility indices for the government sector and to examine the financial structure of the Greek government before and after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis in 2009. We provide empirical evidence that clearly shows the growing financial fragility of the Greek public sector in the 2000s. We also assess the effectiveness of the implemented bailout adjustment programmes in Greece and claim that the conducted austerity measures and fiscal consolidation have not significantly improved the financial posture of the Greek government sector. We argue that the implementation of fiscal and wage austerity in an economy that lacks structural competitiveness produces prolonged recession and unemployment with adverse feedback effects on the financial fragility of the government.     

新企业所得税法实施对欠发达地区（宿迁）经济的影响

新企业所得税法的实施,对我国内外资企业发展、引进外资和地方经济发展等方面产生了重大影响。宿迁市作为一个经济欠发达地区,新税法的实施,有助于促进宿迁市农业产业化,促进高新技术企业的发展,提高企业市场竞争力和外资引进的质量和水平。为应对新税法的实施,宿迁市应充分利用新税法的税收政策和结合地区特点,促进农业规模化 促进传统产业高新技术化和高新技术产业化 创造公平的竞争环境和改善投资环境,促进本地区经济协调快速发展。     

Sanctions and the shadow economy: empirical evidence from Iranian provinces

Using Iranian province level data from 2001 to 2013, this study finds that the international sanctions of 2012/2013 had a significantly stronger negative impact on the growth rate of the shadow economy than they did on the official GDP growth rate. Thus, the international sanctions on Iran have damaged the informal economy even more than the formal economy.     

The nexus of white collar crimes: shadow economy,corruption and uninsured motorists

This article empirically examines the nexus of three white collar crimes: shadow economy, corruption and uninsured motorists. Whereas the shadow economy–corruption linkage has been studied, the linkages with uninsured motorists have not been formally studied. Results, based on US data and accounting for possible bidirectional causalities, show complementarity between shadow economy and corruption and between uninsured motorists and the shadow economy. The magnitude of the impact of uninsured motorists on the shadow economy is greater than that of corruption. In other findings, shadow economy was lower in most prosperous states and in states that did not impose a sales tax.     

The shadow economy in three Mediterranean countries: France,Spain and Greece. A MIMIC approach

This paper offers estimations of the evolution of the shadow economy in three Mediterranean countries, namely France, Spain and Greece. A multiple indicators and multiple causes model based on the latent variable structural theory has been applied. As established by Giles (Working paper on monitoring the health of the tax system, 1995), filtered data to solve the non-stationary problems are used. The model includes the tax burden (both as a whole and disaggregated into direct taxes, indirect taxes and social security contributions), a proxy of regulation burden, theu nemployment rate and self-employment as causes of the shadow economy and the GDP growth rate, the labour force participation ratio and the currency ratio as indicators of the underground economy. The results confirm that unemployment, the fiscal burden and self-employment are the main causes of the shadow economy in these countries, and confirm that an inverse relationship exists between the official GDP growth rate and that of the unofficial economy. This paper has benefited from the comments and suggestions of the anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies. The paper was partly written when third author was visiting Real Colegio Complutense at Harvard University. The hospitality of this Institution is gratefully acknowledged.     

中国农村经济改造模式与发展路径——20世纪30年代学术界的探索

文章总结了20世纪30年代中国学术界围绕解决农村经济危机的途径而展开的理论探讨和争论,分析了“中国农村派”、“乡村建设派”、“农村合作派”和“农业生产技术改革派”提出的不同的解决方案,在对这四种方案的分析视角、理论模式、主要内容、思想特点及实践意义进行爬梳评述的基础上,阐述了这四种方案在方法论、理论分析及对策建议上所蕴含的合理内涵对于我们今天解决“三农”问题和进行社会主义新农村建设所具有的启示。     

国外促进低碳经济发展的税收政策及启示

欧盟、美国、日本等国家在促进低碳经济发展方面都有本国的税收政策,应基于中国国情并借鉴国外先进经验,着力打造适合中国国情的低碳经济。为此,需进一步完善税收政策,坚持有所为、有所不为的原则,从而实现经济增长与可持续发展。     

The productivity paradox and the new economy: The Spanish case

This paper studies the impact of the information and communication technologies (ICT) on economic growth in Spain using a dynamic general equilibrium approach. Contrary to previous works, we use a production function with six different capital inputs, three of them corresponding to ICT assets. Calibration of the model suggests that the contribution of ICT to Spanish productivity growth is very relevant, whereas the contribution of non-ICT capital has been even negative. Additionally, over the sample period 1995–2002, we find a negative TFP growth and productivity growth. These results together aim at the hypothesis that the Spanish economy could be placed within the productivity paradox.     

Values, prices of production and market prices: some more evidence from the Greek economy

This paper extends the empirical investigation of the relationbetween labour values and different price forms in the caseof the Greek economy. Subjecting the labour theory of valueto empirical tests with data from various countries helps inthe derivation of general conclusions regarding its empiricalvalidity and practical usefulness. Our results on the closenessof values and prices as measured by their absolute deviationand correlation, the shape of the wage–profit curves,the predictive power of labour values over market prices comparedwith other ‘value bases’, and the comparison offundamental Marxian categories when estimated in value and priceterms provide further support for the empirical strength ofthe labour theory of value.     

The role of fiscal policy in the St. Louis model: Nonparametric estimates for a small open economy

This paper reevaluates the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policies and bidirectional causality between income and each of the policy instruments used in the St. Louis model for aggregate demand using nonparametric (or infinite parametric) spectral methods. We proceed by estimating the strength of the correlations (or partial coherences) between income and each of the policy instruments over various frequencies. Then we obtain the corresponding band regression and Hannan's efficient estimates of both the lead and lag coefficients in the St. Louis model. The analysis is carried out with seasonally adjusted quarterly data and is divided into the flexible, fixed, and managed flexible exchange rate regimes. We find that while estimates from parametric regressions yield the standard conclusions for the St. Louis model, results from the nonparametric analysis are quite different. Specifically, the results of our analysis reveal that (i) both monetary and fiscal instruments are strongly correlated with income over cycles of 10 quarters or longer for the most recent period of the managed flexible exchange rate regime, and (ii) bidirectional causality exists between income and the fiscal policy instrument. These results suggest that both monetary and fiscal policy have a long-lasting effect on aggregate demand and that bidirectional causality exists between income and policy instruments. An explanation for the existence of bidirectional causality might be that the Canadian government generally pursued a purposeful discretionary fiscal policy during the post-World War II period. Furthermore, it appears that discretionary policy action may have been anticipated by rational, farsighted, and forward-looking economic agents. Finally, our results for the flexible exchange rate and fixed rate regimes are in agreement with the Mundell-Fleming view of the role of monetary fiscal policy in an open economy.     

The democratic (dis)advantage: The conditional impact of democracy on credit risk and sovereign default

Many have argued that democracies are able to make credible commitments to repay their debts and consequently enjoy higher sovereign credit ratings. In contrast to this expectation, I argue that the advantage of democracies in credit ratings is conditional on the countries' level of financial vulnerability and adjustment needs. Because democracies have more diffuse decision-making and are more accountable to the public, they encounter greater difficulty than autocracies in passing unpopular economic adjustment measures. Thus, I argue that democracies with high debt levels and low foreign reserve assets experience worse credit outcomes, whereas democracies with low vulnerability experience more positive outcomes. In a sample of up to 96 developing countries, I show that democracies have worse credit ratings and CDS Spreads and are more likely to default than their autocratic counterparts when foreign reserves are low relative to external debt. Notably, I also show that large debt burdens increase credit risk mainly in more democratic countries. I further test the causal pathway of the democratic advantage by constructing democracy scores of “market-friendly” and “adjustment-difficulty” democracy, finding that democracy worsens debt outcomes due to adjustment difficulty. These findings help to revise and clarify the causal logic surrounding the democratic advantage hypothesis.     

后危机阶段中国经济发展的途径和模式

从对本次金融危机认识与传导路径研究总结归纳入手,着重分析了美国金融危机对中国国民经济增长带来的影响。以金融、贸易及利率等宏观经济变化为背景,以2006～2009年的月度数据为研究样本,实证检验了中国在这次金融危机中受到的冲击。结果表明,中美股票市场之间相互影响相互引致的关系,且以美国股市影响为主;美国进口需求对中国出口具有显著的影响;人民币汇率变化与美元估值变化关系不明显,并就实证结果提供了相关政策建议。     

Revisiting the redistribution effects of intergovernmental fiscal transfers: evidence from Taiwan

This paper employs a panel of 23 local governments in Taiwan over 1998–2010 to re-estimate the redistribution effects of intergovernmental fiscal transfers by considering a self-financing resources of local government as the transition variable in panel smooth transition regression models. Empirical results show that the income (or tax revenues) redistribution effects of fiscal transfer policies are nonlinear and vary with time and across local governments. The grants from central government can improve income and tax revenues distribution of local governments; however, the centrally allotted tax revenues have inverse effects and the total fiscal transfers have ambiguous effects. The total fiscal transfer is a proper policy instrument for improving income redistribution, and the grants for improving tax revenues redistribution. However, high self-financing resources ratios are harmful for these redistribution effects.