Automobile demand,model cycle and age effects

This paper is aimed at exploring the existence of typical patterns of automobile model life and the formal test for age effects in a discrete-choice demand framework estimated with data on the models sold in the Spanish market. Estimates show that the evolution of market shares entails and quantifies age effects resulting from consumer demand. These effects are clearly distinguishable from the impacts generated by changes in attributes and firm pricing. They carry an exogenous factor that is full of implications for firm behaviour over the life of a model: the modification of demand price sensitivities. As a result, for example, equilibrium own-price elasticities are observed to decrease until the fourth year of a model life, and then to increase again.      

Risk management,housing and stockholding

This article investigates the possible explanations of the stockholding puzzle by focusing on housing and other uninsurable risks (associated with income, health and business). Taking the French household wealth survey (Patrimoine 2004, French National Statistical Institute), we find that the share of financial wealth invested in stocks depends on transaction and information costs, risk aversion, exposure to real estate risk and, to a lesser extent, labour market risk. These results are obtained by controlling for endogenous home ownership status.     

市场化下城市居民的住房选择:以广州为例

以广州为例,分析了中国市场化过程中城市居民住房选择行为的变迁及其影响因素。中国大城市现有的住房存量结构受到住房制度改革,尤其是1998年住房货币化改革的深刻影响。由福利分房的再分配体制向住宅商品化的市场体制转型的过程中所采取的赎买措施是造成城市居民高自有率的主要原因。随着转型的逐步完成,未来城市住房的增量结构将更多地受到市场机制的影响。市场化要素如人力资本,收入,私有经济,价格对住房选择影响显著。收入和教育的提高对住宅的拥有及价格/质量都有显著的提高作用。随着市中心房价的大幅升高,城市新增人口的居住选择有逐步郊区化和次中心化的趋势。     

Peer‐based comparison and firms' discretionary cost decisions

This study investigates whether firms engage in peer‐based benchmarking in their decision‐making regarding selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) for a large sample of U.S. listed firms. Peer‐based comparison relates to comparing own performance against the performance of a meaningful reference group of other firms. SG&A are to a large extent discretionary, but optimal levels of (relative) SG&A are hard to assess. Based on the behavioural theory of the firm and institutional theory, we argue that peer‐based comparison is likely to be an important input to managers' SG&A decision processes. Results show that peer‐based comparison significantly drives changes in firms' reported SG&A. In addition, the effect of peer‐based comparison is found to depend on the firm's life cycle stage. Findings further indicate that peer‐based comparison has a significantly stronger effect in reference groups characterised by high(er) SG&A similarity. Results are robust to using several industry classification systems, as well as, multiple approaches to identify firm life cycles.     

Consumption patterns in Sri Lanka: a decomposition analysis

Knowing consumer reaction to changes in prices and income is important in formulating microeconomic policies, such as public utility prices and commodity taxation. This paper analyses the consumption patterns of consumer goods grouped into eight broad commodities in Sri Lanka during the period 1975–2016, using a system-wide framework. The analysis indicates that Sri Lankan consumers allocate more than half of their income to food and nearly four fifths of their income to food, housing, and transport combined. The estimated income and own-price elasticities reveal that food, housing, medical care, and transport are necessities; clothing, durables and recreation are luxuries; and demand for all commodities is price inelastic except for recreation. To investigate the consumption growth pattern, we decomposed the growth in consumption and change in budget shares of the eight commodities into income, relative price, and change in taste. We also simulated per capita consumption expenditure of the eight commodities under various policy scenarios and found that income growth has played a significant role in Sri Lankan consumption patterns.     

Estimating fundamental and affordable housing price trends: a study based on Singapore

Policy-makers often impose some cooling measures on the housing market when housing prices rise fast. Such policies yield limited success if housing prices are driven up by fundamentals. Estimating a fundamental price trend from observed price data is a challenge. We present an empirical methodology to separate housing price trends into fundamental and affordable components. Deviating from the common practice, we replace current income by a long-run income measure constructed from household incomes at different quantiles. This income measure provides a more suitable basis for constructing affordable house price levels. It also serves as a better fundamental variable, especially for segmented housing markets like that of Singapore. These price trends provide policy-makers with useful information to intervene into property markets to achieve desirable outcomes. Analysing Singapore data using this methodology shows the magnitudes of the price gaps between actual and fundamental prices and how housing affordability fluctuates over price cycles.     

技术政策需求分析模型及其在应对气候变化领域的应用

针对目前在技术政策的制定与实施方面我国与发达国家有较大差距的现状,引入技术生命周期理论,建立技术政策需求分析模型;并应用于应对气候变化领域:在综述国内外应对气候变化的技术政策实施现状的基础上,通过列表对比分析,最终得出我国应对气候变化的技术政策需求,以期为政策制定者提供决策参考,为我国应对气候变化目标顺利实现提供政策支持。     

Austrian Demography and Housing Demand: Is There a Connection

This paper analyses the role of demographic factors in the Austrian housing market. Linking demographic issues, in conjunction with the Austrian private housing finance, to the housing demand is the focus of the empirical model developed in this paper. We find statistical support that the demographic factors help to explain for housing demand. However, we emphasize that demographic factor such as the adult population with net migration effect is only one of the key variables which contributes in understanding the Austrian housing demand. Some of our other empirical findings indicate that the Austrian housing demand is inelastic to various economic factors is a concern for some housing policies.     

The business cycle,labor market transitions by age,and the great recession

Using matched monthly CPS data, this article studies differences in labour force transitions across age groups focusing on periods prior to and after the start of the Great Recession. Monthly transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation of 25–55-year-old males are examined from 1996 through 2013. Prior to the Great Recession (1996–2007), younger groups of workers are more likely to move from employment to unemployment and face an increased risk beyond that of other workers of making this transition as the economy worsens; however, this differential responsiveness no longer appears after the start of the Great Recession. Before and after the start of the Great Recession, younger groups of workers are more likely to move from unemployment to employment; however, there is no extra responsiveness among younger workers to the business cycle. Transitions into and out of the labour force nuance these findings; however, there is no evidence of differential responsiveness among younger workers since the start of the Great Recession. These findings challenge interpretation of the movements of unemployment rates by age group over the business cycle as being driven by differential hiring and firing particularly since the start of the Great Recession.     

Complementarity and the Measurement of Individual Risk Tradeoffs: Accounting for Quantity and Quality of Life Effects

This paper considers the factors responsible for differences with age in estimates of the wage compensation an individual requires to accept increased occupational fatality risk. We derive a relationship between the value of a statistical life (VSL) and the degree of complementarity between consumption and labor supplied when health status serves as a potential source of variation in this relationship. Our empirical analysis finds that variations in an individual’s health status or quality of life and anticipated longevity threats lead to significant differences in the estimated wage/risk tradeoffs. We describe how extensions to the specification of hedonic wage models, including measures for quality of life and anticipated longevity threats, help to explain the diversity in past studies examining how the estimated wage–risk tradeoff changes with age.      

Business cycle convergence and trade: Brazil and China in a changing world

The recent economic interaction between Latin America and Asia, particularly between Brazil and China, has attracted the attention of the academic world that seeks to understand the effects of this approach in terms of business cycle convergence, economic structure and development trajectory. This paper contributes to this debate, presenting new evidence about the type and quality of this relationship. Our results reveal that Brazil and China present different patterns of relationship between trade and productive specialization: while Brazil has an intra-industry trade pattern, China has an inter-industry trade pattern. We explore some normative implications and future research possibilities.     

Cost analysis of leuprorelin acetate in Japanese prostate cancer patients: comparison between 6-month and 3-month depot formulations

Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the economic value for leuprorelin acetate 6-month depot compared with leuprorelin acetate 3-month depot from a societal perspective in Japanese prostate cancer patients.

Methods: The cost analysis estimated the reduction in direct and indirect costs as well as intangible costs saved by having one less injection. Claims data were used for the analyses of direct and indirect costs reduction. A discrete choice experiment based on a web-based survey estimated the monetary value of the intangible costs for one injection. Another web-based survey of prostate cancer patients, who had received treatment with leuprorelin acetate injections, was carried out to calibrate the results of the discrete choice experiment.

Results: Reductions in medical costs and loss of productivity for having one less injection in prostate cancer patients receiving leuprorelin acetate were JPY 5,670 and JPY 1,723, respectively. Intangible costs saved by using a 6-month depot formulation instead of a 3-month depot formulation for the injection of leuprorelin acetate were estimated to be JPY 19,872, including the values for a reduction in pain (JPY 3,131), injection site reactions (JPY 11,545), waiting time (JPY 9,479), and subtracting the value of medical consultation (JPY 4,283). The total cost reduction for having one less injection was JPY 27,265.

Limitations: The respondents from the internet panel provided by a survey company are not necessarily a representative population of Japanese society.

Conclusions: Leuprorelin acetate 6-month depot has an advantage in monetary value in the reduction in medical costs, loss of productivity, and intangible costs for having one less injection in prostate cancer patients compared with leuprorelin acetate 3-month depot. In the costs for treating with leuprorelin acetate, the percentage of intangible costs might not be negligible. The intangible costs will probably be actively evaluated to proceed to patient-centered healthcare in society.     

Cost analysis of leuprorelin acetate in Japanese pre-menopausal breast-cancer patients: comparison between 6-month and 3-month depot formulations

Aims: The aim in this study is to evaluate economic value for leuprorelin acetate 6-month depot compared with leuprorelin acetate 3-month depot in Japanese pre-menopausal breast cancer patients from a societal perspective.

Methods: The cost analysis was conducted by estimating direct and indirect cost, and intangible costs associated with one 6-month injection compared with two 3-month injections. Claims data were used for the analyses of direct and indirect cost and Medical Fee Schedule Table for direct cost. Discrete choice experiments were conducted by web-based survey to determine the intangible costs. Another web-based survey was also conducted on premenopausal breast cancer patients with injections of leuprorelin acetate, to calibrate the results of discrete choice experiments.

Results: The medical costs saved for having one less injection in pre-menopausal breast cancer patients with leuprorelin acetate injection were JPY 6,183. The productivity loss saving was JPY 1,419. An estimation of intangible costs saved for having one less injection of leuprorelin acetate was JPY 58,430, which included the disbenefit due to pain (JPY 8,535), injection site reactions (JPY 44,051), waiting time (JPY 9,595), and subtracting value in medical consultation (JPY 3,751). The total cost saved for having one less injection was JPY 66,032.

Limitations: The respondents from the internet panel provided by a survey company do not necessarily reflect a population of Japanese society.

Conclusions: Leuprorelin acetate 6-month depot demonstrates a higher value than leuprorelin acetate 3-month depot through saving medical costs and loss of productivity, as well as intangible costs saved for having one less injection when treating pre-menopausal breast cancer patients. In the costs for treating with leuprorelin acetate, the percentage of intangible costs might not be negligible. The intangible costs will probably be actively evaluated to proceed to patient-centered healthcare in society.     

碳足迹的概念和核算方法研究进展

碳足迹提供了分析人类活动对气候变化影响的新视角.从概念和核算方法两个方面对有关碳足迹的研究进行了分析:(1)概念上,碳足迹目前无统一的定义.在分析度量单位、温室气体种类及系统边界的基础上,文章提出了碳足迹的建议定义.(2)方法上,碳足迹目前无统一的核算方法.投入产出分析、生命周期评价及混合生命周期评价是三种主要的核算方法.文章对这三种方法的原理、适用范围、优缺点及应用情况进行了分析.最后,从方法、应用和不确定性三个方面对碳足迹研究作了展望.     

Give peas a chance: Transformations in food consumption and production systems

Food production chains can be organised in a variety of ways. Conventional ‘industrial’ agricultural practices are based on advanced breeding techniques and major inputs of chemical fertilisers and pesticides. Food produced in this way is transport-intensive, requires high-energy processing, relies on modern retailing systems and demands high-tech kitchens. Many argue that the industrialised systems should be dismantled and replaced with alternative methods of agriculture, food processing and distribution that emphasise social and environmental sustainability. This paper looks at the environmental and social sustainability of different strategies for food systems by analysing the whole chain of production, processing, distribution and consumption activities of the production of frozen peas, a vegetable that is ‘symbolic’ of modern food systems and the UK diet.     

Optimal diversification and risk-taking: a theoretical and empirical analysis

Among the justifications for capital property income received by private households is that it is a ‘return to risk-taking’. However, portfolio diversification provides an obvious means toward the reduction of risk. Moreover, it is widely believed that the wealthier the household, the more diversification it practices: the larger tends to be the proportion of its total portfolio allocated to publicly traded stock, and the larger tends to be the number of individual stock issues included in its portfolio. Using a simple ‘homogeneous securities’ model, explicit functional forms are obtained for both the optimal proportion of the portfolio allocated to stocks, and the optimal number of individual stock issues in the portfolio. Empirical evaluation of these theoretical results, using a dataset derived from the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), lends substantial support to the model. Applying these empirical results, it is found that as household capital wealth increases, expected capital income increases while simultaneously a reasonable risk indicator (the probability of incurring a negative return on the capital portfolio) decreases owing to the higher level of portfolio diversification. This indication casts significant doubt on the ‘return to risk-taking’ justification for capital property income received by wealthy private households.     

Oil price uncertainty and the business cycle: Accounting for the influences of global supply and demand within a VAR GARCH-in-mean framework

ABSTRACT

This article reinvestigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on real economic activity in the United States using a four-variable VAR GARCH-in-mean asymmetric BEKK model. In contrast to previous studies in this area, the analysis focuses on business cycle fluctuations and we control for global supply and demand factors that might affect the real price of oil, its volatility as well as the US economy. We find that – even after accounting for these factors – oil price uncertainty still has a highly significant negative influence on the US business cycle. Our computations show that the effect is economically important during several periods, mostly after a significant variance shift in the mid-1980s. We simultaneously estimate the effect on the global business cycle but find that it is comparatively weak. Finally, significant spillover effects in the GARCH model suggest that oil price volatility is a gauge and channel of transmission of more general macroeconomic shocks and uncertainty. These linkages are particularly strong in case of unexpected bad news.     

The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

Volatility spillovers and the global financial cycle across economies: Evidence from a global semi-structural model

The paper provides some evidence on the relevance of global uncertainty and risk aversion and the lesser importance of US interest rates for the global financial and business cycles. As framework, we use a global semi-structural model augmented with financial and trade interlinkages. Financial interlinkages are modelled with proposed global uncertainty, global risk aversion and global financial cycle channels. Trade interlinkages are modelled with proposed value-chain trade equations. We find that global uncertainty and global risk aversion are, by far, the main volatility factors in all economies. Other volatility factors such as US interest rates, foreign interest rates and trade-related factors rarely explain shares of forecast error variance above one percent.     

Well-being and doctor visits: The mediating role of a healthy diet

Subjective well-being is associated with many positive health outcomes. However, little is known about whether these favourable outcomes translate into a reduction in the number of doctor visits. Using large-scale panel data from Australia, we find that individuals with high life satisfaction need fewer visits to their family doctor or general practitioner. We also present evidence on the pathways underlying this relationship, showing it is significantly explained by a person's diet. These findings remain after correcting for sample selection bias using Heckman's approach as well as controlling for various confounding factors.