Real exchange rate volatility,financial crises and exchange rate regimes

This article examines real exchange rate (RER) volatility in 80 countries around the world, during the period 1970 to 2011. Two main questions are raised: are structural breaks in RER volatility related to changes in exchange rate regimes or financial crises? And do these two events affect the permanent and transitory components of RER volatility? To answer these, we employ two complementary procedures that consist in detecting structural breaks in the RER series and decomposing volatility into its permanent and transitory components. Our results suggest that structural breaks in RER volatility coincidence with financial crises and certain changes in nominal exchange rate regimes. Moreover, our findings confirm that RER volatility does increase with the global financial crises and detect that the more flexible the exchange rate regime, the higher the volatility of the RER using a de facto exchange rate classification.     

On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes

The literature has identified three main approaches to account for the way exchange rate regimes are chosen: (i) the optimal currency area theory; (ii) the financial view, which highlights the consequences of international financial integration; and (iii) the political view, which stresses the use of exchange rate anchors as credibility enhancers in politically challenged economies. Using de facto and de jure regime classifications, we test the empirical relevance of these approaches separately and jointly. We find overall empirical support for all of them, although the incidence of financial and political aspects varies substantially between industrial and non-industrial economies. Furthermore, we find that the link between de facto regimes and their underlying fundamentals has been surprisingly stable over the years, suggesting that the global trends often highlighted in the literature can be traced back to the evolution of their natural determinants, and that actual policies have been less influenced by the frequent twist and turns in the exchange rate regime debate.     

Productivity and technical change: Measurement and testing

This paper considers two specifications, namely, the time trend (TT) and general index (GI) of technical change. These models are extended to accommodate the TFP growth accounting relationship in to the econometric model. We also propose a formal test to determine whether the TT or the GI model is appropriate for the data. I would like to thank Badi Baltagi for his comments and Peter Schmidt for suggesting the test proposed in the paper. None, other than me, is responsible for any remaining errors.     

Foreign interest rate shocks and exchange rate regimes in East Asia

Using a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and an empirical panel vector autoregression, we assess the transmission of foreign real interest rate shocks on the volatility of various key macroeconomic variables in nine small open economies in East Asia taking into account the role of exchange rate regimes. Both the theoretical and empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that flexible exchange rate may work as a shock absorber when the economy is hit by foreign real interest rate shocks. The findings suggest a clear trade-off between the volatility of real exchange rate and real output to foreign interest rate shocks, both the US and G7 real interest rates, where the responses of real output are mitigated in countries that have more flexible exchange rate regime.     

Optimal Product Variety and Economic Growth: The Trade-off between Internal and External Economies of Scale

Received July 17, 2000; revised version received February 1, 2001     

The political economy of exchange rate regimes in developed and developing countries

This paper examines the influence of government ideology, political institutions and globalization on the choice of exchange rate regime via panel multinomial logit approach using annual data over the period of 1974-2004 in a panel of 180 countries: 26 developed and 154 developing.We provide evidence that government ideology, political institutions and globalization are important determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime. In particular, we find that left-wing governments, democratic institutions, central bank independence and financial development increase the likelihood of choosing a flexible regime, whereas more globalized countries have a higher probability of implementing a fixed regime. More importantly, we find that political economy factors have different effects on the choice of exchange rate regime in developed and developing countries. All our results are robust to panel ordered probit model.     

Government Spending and Welfare with Returns to Specialization

We explore a novel channel through which government spending can stimulate consumption and welfare through its effects on aggregate productivity, without directly affecting either utility or production possibilities. In the presence of monopolistic competition and increasing returns to specialization, it is shown that government spending can partly alleviate the inefficiencies of monopolistic competition. This is because government spending generates an endogenous increase in total factor productivity by increasing the variety of intermediate goods. If the degree of increasing returns to variety is large enough, a rise in such wasteful government spending may increase consumption levels enough to increase welfare.
JEL classification : E 60     

Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words

Most of the empirical literature on exchange rate regimes uses the IMF de jure classification based on the regime announced by the governments, despite the recognized inconsistencies between reported and actual policies in many cases. To address this problem, we construct a de facto classification based on data on exchange rates and international reserves from all IMF-reporting countries over the period 1974-2000, which we believe provides a meaningful alternative for future empirical work on the topic. The classification sheds new light on several stylized facts previously reported in the literature. In particular, we find that the de facto pegs have remained stable throughout the last decade, although an increasing number of them shy away from an explicit commitment to a fixed regime (“hidden pegs”). We confirm the hollowing out hypothesis but show that it does not apply to countries with limited access to capital markets. We also find that pure floats are associated with only relatively minor nominal exchange rate volatility and that the recent increase in the number of de jure floats goes hand in hand with an increase in the number of de facto dirty floats (“fear of floating”).     

The emerging global financial architecture and exchange rate regimes in a volatile world

Previous work has documented inflation effects on Tobin's q in the long run. This paper examines whether the FED's different policies and chairmen tenure have an impact on Tobin's q, after a modified stylized AD-AS model shows that central banks affect q. We do find changing responses of q depending on the pre-Volcker and post-Volcker periods.     

Collapsing exchange rate regimes in the presence of a parallel market

This paper develops a model of an economy where the fixed exchange rate is overvalued and coexists with a parallel market for foreign currency. Such a situation persists because the parallel marker is used by the central authorities as an instrument to delay policy changes. Using the Haïtian experience, this paper estimates a rationing parameter of foreign currency in the official market which translates the extent of tolerance of the parallel market. The paper also produces estimates of onestep-ahead probability of devaluation. Rationing has been severe and the probability of collapse has reached high levels during the period studied.     

Inflation,growth and exchange rate regimes in small open economies

Summary. This paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements, and credit market frictions may or may not cause credit rationing. Under floating exchange rates, raising domestic inflation can increase production if credit is rationed. However, there exist inflation thresholds: increasing inflation beyond the threshold level will reduce domestic output. Endogenously arising volatility may be observed independently of the exchange rate regime. Private information - with high rates of domestic inflation - increases the scope for indeterminacy and economic fluctuations.Received: 26 March 2002, Revised: 29 October 2002JEL Classification Numbers: E32, E44, F33.P.L. Hernandez-Verme: I would like to thank Leonardo Auernheimer, Valerie Bencivenga, Dean Corbae, Scott Freeman, Todd Keister, Beatrix Paal, and Maxwell Stinchcombe for very helpful comments and suggestions. Very special thanks are due to Bruce D. Smith. The paper also benefited from the discussions in the seminars in CIDE, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Indiana University, ITAM, Purdue University, the Second Annual Missouri Economics Conference, Texas A&M, the University of Missouri and the University of Texas at Austin.     

Competition among techniques in the presence of increasing returns to scale

A model of technology diffusion and growth originally proposed by Batten (1987), taking into account the interaction of the supply of and demand for a new product, is modified so as to admit a production technology with increasing returns to scale and the possibility of a competition between two techniques. On the opposite to the case where the production technology of the new technique exhibits decreasing returns, the presence of increasing returns to scale prevent the splitting of the market between two new techniques, and the monopoly position of one technique must obtain. The winning technique may not be the most efficient in terms of its market expansion potential, the outcome of competition depends on initial conditions on production capacity and diffusion.The author wishes to thank Robert Boyer for his helpful advice and remains the sole responsible for all remaining errors and omissions.     

董事会互动过程(IOP)有效性研究

随着国内企业的迅速发展,董事会制度得到普遍发展。增强董事会的有效性研究成为公司治理研究的重要问题。董事会团队内部成员的互动过程对董事会有效性具有一定的影响,加强董事会有效性研究对于提升董事间的满足感、增强互动合作精神、提高其在公司的影响力等方面具有重要作用。     

The division of labor and the extent of the market

Summary. A firms degree of specialization is modeled as the number of different goods it produces. When a firm chooses its degree of specialization, it faces a tradeoff between the fixed cost and the marginal cost of production. A firms degree of specialization is shown to increase with the extent of the market. Meanwhile, the real wage rate, as a measure of the extent of the market, is endogenously determined in the model and is shown to increase with the division of labor.Received: 29 April 2002, Revised: 18 June 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: A10.The author thanks an anonymous referee and Antonio Ciccone for their very valuable and constructive suggestions. I thank Deborah Minehart, Robert Schwab, and Daniel Vincent for their valuable guidance and advice. I also thank Mingchao Chen, David Selover, and Xiaokai Yang for their helpful advice.     

The Labour Input Response to Permanent Changes in Output: An Errors-in-Variables Analysis Based on Panel Data

Using panel data for Norwegian manufacturing, we revisit 'the increasing returns to scale puzzle' for labour inputs. We consider the response of the input of white-collar workers, blue-collar workers, and blue-collar worker hours to permanent changes in output. Permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables. We compare OLS, IV, and GMM estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential. Our GMM estimates suggest that the 'increasing returns to scale puzzle' remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output. For materials, the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale. This suggests non-homotheticity of the production technology.
JEL classification : C 23; J 23     

黑龙江省科技资源配置效率的DEA分析

科技资源配置效率对科技系统的功能和效率有重要的影响,在很大程度上决定着区域科技能力的强弱。本文运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法常用的C2R和BC2模型,评价分析了黑龙江省各地区科技资源配置的有效性,并提出了黑龙江省科技资源优化配置的对策和建议。