Hand pollination,mass spraying,and hybrid seedlings: Do these technologies affect the welfare of smallholder cocoa farmers in Ghana?

Adoption of cocoa production technologies has the potential to improve productivity and welfare of smallholder producers in low-income countries. While studies investigating synergies in agricultural technologies are growing, empirical evidence on the determinants and impacts of adopting multiple cocoa production technologies on smallholder farmers' welfare is scarce. Therefore, this study contributes by analyzing the determinants and effects of adoption of multiple cocoa production technologies on the welfare of smallholder farmers in Ghana. To achieve this, we used the multinomial endogenous switching regression and multivalued inverse probability regression adjustment models to a random sample of 2233 cocoa farmers from Ghana. The results show that various socioeconomic characteristics (e.g., farmer's age and experience), resource constraints (e.g., land ownership and credit access), market-related factors (e.g., distance to the market), and production shocks (e.g., rainfall) influence the adoption of multiple cocoa production technologies. Furthermore, the results reveal that adopting multiple production technologies significantly improves cocoa yields, gross income, per capita consumption expenditure, and reduces household food insecurity. Therefore, policies, such as financial support, need to be aimed at improving and strengthening smallholder cocoa producers' capacity to adopt synergistic conventional and non-conventional cocoa production technologies to maximize smallholder farmers' welfare.     

Cost efficiency and banking performances in a partial universal banking system: application of the panel smooth threshold model

This paper studies the cost efficiency of bank in a partial universal banking system (PUBS), Taiwan. Instead of assuming one common technology in the bank cost function, two technologies are assumed to be imbedded in the cost function. Fee revenues are used as threshold to divide the banks into two technologies. A bank whose fee revenues exceeding the threshold is designated as universal bank technology while falling below the threshold is designated as traditional deposit-loan technology. The panel smooth transition model is adopted, which allows banks to smoothly adjust between the two technologies. Two criteria are suggested, overbanking and the trend-toward-fee revenues, to assess the new model's performances. With respect to scale economies, the results do find a panel smooth transition model yield more reasonable results than the conventional OLS and random effect of panel data approach. Based on the panel smooth transition model, the optimal fixed asset size is around ten billion New Taiwan dollars.     

On the strength of corporate cultures

We model corporate culture(s) as production technologies for which employees have to undertake culture-specific investments that improve their effectiveness. At a later date, the organization can adopt cultural changes that make this investment partially redundant. This leads to under-investment. However, as agents invest more, the organization's opportunity cost of a change increases, which in turn increases each agents' incentives to invest. This externality among agents leads to multiple equilibria. Otherwise similar organizations can thus exhibit either high investment levels and low probability of changes (strong culture) or low investment levels and high probability of changes (weak culture). We also explore some implications for the nature and management of corporate culture.     

Interactions of the firm's real and financial decisions

This paper provides an integrated approach to the theory of the firm. Under technological uncertainty, corporate taxes, risky debt and risk neutrality it is shown that the firm's investment production and financing decisions are made simultaneously. It is demonstrated that the relationship between optimal capital (or labour) and debt is not strictly negative as in Dotan and Ravid (1982) nor strictly positive as in Hite (1977). The direction of this relationship depends on the characteristics of debt and the characteristics of the firm's production function. Given the simultaneity of the real and financial decisions, it is shown that an interior optimum exists for the firm's value as a function of debt.     

Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade with its major trading partners: Japan, Germany, the United States, and China. We extend previous studies in two ways. First, we examine whether global financial crisis changes the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade. Next, we divide exchange rate volatility into quintiles and examine the effect of each quintile on cross‐border trade by using the multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model. Our findings from standard nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) indicate that the asymmetric relationship between exchange rate volatility and cross‐border trade changes as a result of global financial crisis. In addition, findings from MTNARDL indicate that in short‐run, exchange rate volatility symmetrically affects India's cross‐border trade with all sample countries whereas in long‐run it asymmetrically affects cross‐border trade. Overall, these findings are very important for policy implications and open a new dimension to exchange rate volatility and trade flows.     

Fixed versus variable rate loans under regret aversion

This paper examines the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate loans of a competitive bank facing funding cost uncertainty, where the bank is not only risk averse but also regret averse. Regret aversion is characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that a negative spread between fixed and variable rate loans is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the dominance of variable rate loans over fixed rate loans. If the bank optimally extends both fixed and variable rate loans, the total amount of loans depends neither on the bank's regret aversion nor on the funding cost uncertainty. The bank, however, optimally lends less should it be forced to assume the entire funding cost uncertainty by exclusively extending fixed rate loans. Finally, using a two-state example, we show that the bank optimally extends more (less) fixed rate loans than in the case of pure risk aversion if the high (low) marginal cost of funds is more likely to prevail. Regret aversion as such plays a crucial role in determining the bank's optimal choice between fixed and variable rate loans.     

Determinants of women's financial inclusion: Evidence from India

A number of studies have analyzed the determinants of financial inclusion in India, but few if any have focused specifically on the factors that shape women's access to finance. This paper draws on the trove of women-specific data collected in the fourth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), conducted in 2015–16 in India, to examine the factors that influence women's access to finance. The results indicate that while the forces that shape women's access to finance function at multiple levels, micro-level factors appear to be powerful drivers of inclusion. The analysis reveals that household-level economic indicators like wealth, gender of household head and their rural-urban location are crucial, but so are individual-level characteristics which explain approximately 83% of the variation in the multilevel regressions. Informal gender norms that govern women's mobility and economic activity crucially influence the ability of women to access loans and open bank accounts.     

ON ADDITIVE METHODS TO SHARE JOINT COSTS*

The Shapley value theory is extended to cost functions with multiple outputs (or to production functions with multiple inputs) where each output is demanded by a different agent and the level of demand varies. Beyond the Additivity and Dummy axioms (Shapley's original axioms) we insist that the cost-share of an agent should not decrease when she increases her demand (Demand Monotonicity). This property rules out the Aumann-Shapley pricing formula, as well as any method charging average cost for homogeneous goods. We characterize the class of cost sharing methods satisfying Additivity, Dummy, Demand Monotonicity and Cross Monotonicity. The last says that when outputs i and j are cost complements (resp-cost substitutes) the cost share of i is non decreasing (resp-non increasing) in the demand of j. Two prominent methods in the class are the Shapley-Shubik method (i.e. the Shapley value of the Stand Alone cost game) and serial cost sharing (which extends to multiple goods a formula due to Moulin and Shenker). They are characterized respectively by a lower bound and by an upper bound on individual cost shares.     

Globalization and firm‐level cost structure

In this study, we draw on economic theories of cost structure and the effects of international trade on firms' productivity to assess firm‐level cost behavior in the context of globalization. We investigate why and how trade openness affects firms' cost structure by examining the changes of fixed inputs along with those in capacity levels. Using a sample consisting of 25 countries from 2000 to 2014, we find that trade openness does significantly affect firms fixed and variable cost inputs, which indicate that production uncertainty along with international trade is essential to the cost structure decision in terms of cost rigidity. Furthermore, larger firms are more likely to adopt a rigid cost structure with higher fixed costs and lower variable costs because they are more involved in the international economy and more exposed to associated uncertainties.     

Improving forecast accuracy of financial vulnerability: PLS factor model approach

We present a factor augmented forecasting model for assessing the financial vulnerability in Korea. Dynamic factor models often extract latent common factors from a large panel of time series data via the method of the principal components (PC). Instead, we employ the partial least squares (PLS) method that estimates target specific common factors, utilizing covariances between predictors and the target variable. Applying PLS to 198 monthly frequency macroeconomic time series variables and the Bank of Korea's Financial Stress Index (KFSTI), our PLS factor augmented forecasting models consistently outperformed the random walk benchmark model in out-of-sample prediction exercises in all forecast horizons we considered. Our models also outperformed the autoregressive benchmark model in short-term forecast horizons. We expect our models would provide useful early warning signs of the emergence of systemic risks in Korea's financial markets.     

Threshold uncertainty in the private-information subscription game

We introduce threshold uncertainty, à la Nitzan and Romano (1990), into a private-values model of voluntary provision of a discrete public good. Players are allowed to make any level of contribution toward funding the good, which is provided if the cost threshold is reached. Otherwise, contributions are refunded. Conditions ensuring existence and uniqueness of a Bayesian equilibrium are established. Further restricting the threshold uncertainty to a uniform distribution, we show the equilibrium strategies are very simple, even allowing for any number of players with asymmetric distributions of values. Comparative statics with respect to changes in players' distributions are derived, allowing changes in both the intensity and the dispersion of values. For example, increased uncertainty, in the sense of mean-preserving spreads of players' distributions of values, increases equilibrium contributions. Finally, we show the equilibrium is interim incentive inefficient. The sharpness of our results greatly contrasts with the more qualified insights of earlier private-values models with known cost threshold, which relied on there being two symmetric players and generally exhibited multiple equilibria.     

An optimal production method for penetrating foreign markets: Standardization,localization, and flexible technology

This paper examines firms' production strategies for supplying products tailored to the target country's local taste: developing a new localized variety and modifying an existing variety to fit the local taste. Adopting the concept of the flexible technology in industrial organization theory, the paper develops a simple theoretical model to examine when and why exporters or multinationals adopt flexible technologies to serve multiple markets. The results suggest that firms with basic varieties that are considerably different from the variety demanded by the local country are likely to develop localized varieties to serve the country, whereas those with basic varieties that are considerably similar to the demanded variety are likely to modify their existing varieties. In some circumstances, even when foreign production has an intrinsic cost advantage over exporting before the application of a flexible technology, firms may choose to be exporters by adopting the technology. In addition, the results indicate a possible industry equilibrium: Firms with basic varieties that are considerably similar to the variety demanded by the local country are likely to modify them and become multinationals, whereas those with basic varieties that are considerably different from the demanded variety are likely to develop new localized products and become multinationals. Otherwise, firms are likely to modify their existing platforms and become exporters.     

Fixed versus variable rate loans under state-dependent preferences

This paper examines the optimal mix of fixed and variable rate loans of a competitive bank facing uncertain funding costs. The bank's preferences are state-dependent in that the utility function depends on a state variable. We show that the optimal amount of loans extended by the bank depends neither on the state-dependent preferences of the bank, nor on the joint distribution of the marginal cost of funds and the state variable. The bank, however, optimally lends less should it be forced to assume all interest rate risk by exclusively extending fixed rate loans. We show further that a non-positive spread between fixed and variable rate loans is no longer a necessary and sufficient condition for the bank to refrain from extending fixed rate loans should the marginal cost of funds be correlated with the state variable in the sense of expectation dependence. State-dependent preferences as such play a pivotal role in determining the bank's optimal choice between fixed and variable rate loans.     

The determinants of privatization prices: evidence from Turkey

This paper analyses the determinants of privatization prices in a multi-industry study using a sample of 68 recently privatized firms from Turkey. Results show that revenue and market characteristics are significant determinants of privatization prices while current cost and profit indicators are not. It is argued that potential buyers regard these state firms as inefficient, therefore do not take into consideration their current costs and profits in determining their value. When the dependent variable is altered by dividing the firm's privatization price by the firm's sales (revenues), it is found that sales-adjusted privatization prices are responsive to firms profit margins. However, this result does not hold when the sample is restricted to a single industry. Profit margins along with other profitability and firm efficiency measures are no longer significant determinants of sales-adjusted privatization prices in the cement industry analysis. Unexploited production opportunities measured by capacity utilization ratios, and complete private ownership resume a more important role.     

Discontinuities in genetic engineering for pharmaceuticals? firms jumps and lock-in in systems of Innovation

This pape criticizes the concept of 'technological discontinuities'. It argues that the concept is misleading when the skills and knowledge of an indusry are composed of multiple rather than single core technologies. In cases such as the use of genetic engineering as the basis of production in pharmaceuticals, both existing pharmaceutical firms and new biotech firms integrate the new techniques into existing indusrial practice. The radical tecnology both enhances and destroys existing knowledge; the key to survival has been integration. Both existing and new firms have had the possibility of integrating multiple core technologies, but firms have been able to do so in different ways. Some existing firms could jump over to the radically new ‘technological trajectory’, by combining their creation of new competencies through in-house R&D with their access to novelty through relations with external agents in systems of innovation.     

Endogenous Imitation and Technology Absorption in a Model of North–South Trade

Abstract

This paper considers the transfer of technology from the North to the South that occurs through trade in high-technology goods and explicitly models the ‘reverse-engineering’ process that allows the South to assimilate new technologies. A key finding of this study is that the South's rate of growth is dictated by the size of the country's human capital, which determines its absorptive capacity and its ability to assimilate knowledge from the North. We find that while a Southern country that is poor in human capital can only imitate, Southern countries that possess sufficiently large human capital endowments, beyond a certain threshold, signal the onset of innovation. We also find that the North enjoys a higher rate of innovation and growth with trade than without. North's gains are the highest when it trades with a human-capital ‘poor’ South, because imitation increases South's demand for Northern intermediates. But trade with the Southern countries that are human capital rich (and therefore involved in innovation), dampens their demand for Northern imports, adversely affecting North's growth. The model predicts growth convergence between the North and a South that is well passed the threshold for innovation.     

Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment

This paper examines the effect of progressive taxation on a firm's investment intensity and timing decisions using a real options approach. The firm possesses a perpetual option to invest in a project at any instant by incurring an irreversible investment cost at that time. The amount of the irreversible investment cost determines the intensity of investment that augments the value of the project. Tax progression is specified in a particular case of a constant marginal tax rate with an exogenously given tax exemption threshold that makes the average tax rate increase with the tax base. We show that the firm's investment decisions are neutral to tax progression only when the exogenously given tax exemption threshold is sufficiently large. When tax neutrality does not hold, we show that progressive taxation has a perverse effect on investment intensity. Finally, we show that progressive taxation induces the firm to invest earlier as compared to the case under proportional taxation (i.e., in the absence of any tax exemption).     

New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law

We estimate Okun's relationship for four European countries (France, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain) with a nonparametric procedure, without imposing a previous specific functional form. We apply the non parametric MARS methodology that endogenously detects multiple thresholds and therefore is able to identify multiple possible regimes. In addition, we control for the Euro area crisis to capture possible effects of the economic activity of neighbour countries on domestic unemployment rate variations. Our results confirm the existence of two regimes in each country but significantly different thresholds across countries. The form of Okun's relationship for Germany, France and the Netherlands are similar and quite different from Spain where it is much steeper. Differences between Okun coefficients below and above the threshold are consistent with the “firm's risk aversion hypothesis”, but different thresholds across countries may be related to the “labour hoarding hypothesis”. The negative value of the threshold in Spain may reflect the “institutional rigidity hypothesis”. Finally, the fact that the Euro area crisis may affect the domestic Okun's law is consistent with decision makers with risk aversion who use information from the economic area they are operating in. These results not only potentially enrich Okun's law estimations but also open the debate over how the different theoretical hypothesis intervene and shape Okun's law for each country.     

A financial market stress indicator for Austria

This paper develops a financial market stress indicator based on monthly data reflecting the functioning and stability of Austria’s financial system. We aggregate individual time series in a composite indicator using principle component analysis and identify episodes of heightened financial stress since 2000. We highlight the quantitative importance of macrofinancial linkages by modeling the co-movement of the indicator and industrial production. The estimates from two nonlinear models reveal the presence of threshold effects in the transmission of financial market stress to economic activity in Austria.     

Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?

The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring capital or other fixed factors explicitly, using the procedure developed by Houthakker in the 1950s. Houthakker's method is based on the probability distribution of the productivity of the variable factor. Fitting different distributions to cross-sectional data on U.S. productivity, it is shown that if the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor is greater than about 1.9, the burgeoning of AI technologies will cause a decline in aggregate wages, other things equal. For the manufacturing sector, an even smaller human-robot elasticity of substitution is likely to result in declining wages of industrial workers as robots proliferate.