企业采用新技术的时点博弈分析

技术创新可以为企业带来超额利润,具有极大的经济价值,然而新技术的不确定性和风险性又使得企业不会立即采用。本文通过构建双寡头垄断博弈模型对企业采用新技术的时点进行研究,证明企业采用新技术时存在一个最佳时点,在这个最佳时点之前,企业应采取等待策略。     

特色种植农户对不同技术供给模式的行为响应——以陕西省周至县猕猴桃种植示范村为例

以2013年周至县猕猴桃种植农户技术采用行为的抽样调查问卷为基础,综合分析特色种植农户对不同技术供给模式下的行为响应及其影响因素,探究其中是否存在某些内在的规律性特征。结果表明:1不同技术供给模式对特色种植农户具有一定的普适性;2特色种植农户对不同技术供给模式的采用效率具有相对的差异性,即政府主导型合作主导型企业主导型科研主导型;3特色种植农户对不同技术供给模式的行为响应受内外因素的共同作用,既受信息网络、技术成本、技术风险、技术服务、社会网络、市场环境和政策环境等外部因素的影响,也受文化程度、兼业程度、特色种植收入等内部因素的影响;4在不同技术供给模式的背景下,影响特色种植农户采用行为主要因素的作用力大小存在着一定差异,同时也表现出一定的规律性特征,即不同技术供给模式下的农户采用行为与信息网络、社会网络、市场环境、特色种植收入呈正相关,与兼业程度、技术风险呈负相关。     

市场和技术对企业新技术采用最优时机的影响

基于古诺模型,研究了产品的可替代程度和技术的有效性对企业采用新技术的时机的影响。结果表明:率先采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机与产品的可替代程度呈倒U型关系;当产品的可替代性足够大且技术有效性充分小时,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机会随市场竞争的加剧而提前;两类企业采用新技术的时机与技术的有效性均成负相关关系;面对技术有效性的同水平提高,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机将提早得更多。     

Farmers’ organizations and sustainable development: An introduction

This special issue features 14 new research papers investigating the role of farmers’ organizations (e.g., collective action, self-help groups, producer companies/organizations, and cooperatives) in supporting sustainable development. The key findings include: (1) farmer groups and cooperatives promote farmers’ adoption of good farm management practices, new agricultural technologies and sustainable farming practices, although not substantially improving farm yield; (2) outsourcing services provided by agricultural cooperatives help to increase the technical efficiency of crop production; (3) cooperative membership enhances members’ bargaining power and enables them to sell their products at higher prices; (4) cooperatives motivate rural laborers to work in off-farm sectors, while self-help groups empower rural women in decision-making; (5) internet use improves agricultural cooperatives’ economic, social, and innovative performances; (6) direct administrative intervention supporting cooperative development may lead to the emergence of shell cooperatives; (7) participation in forest farmer organizations enables wood value chain upgrading; (8) increasing the cooperative size in terms of income, equity, and assets increases the profitability of savings and credit cooperatives; and (9) creating cross-border cooperation between cooperatives generates benefits for all parties involved. These findings can inspire the design of policies aimed to support farmers’ organizations in achieving sustainable development goals.     

The Optimal Timing of Adoption of a Green Technology

We study the optimal timing of adoption of a cleaner technology and its effects on the rate of growth of an economy in the context of an AK endogenous growth model. We show that the results depend upon the behavior of the marginal utility of environmental quality with respect to consumption. When it is increasing, we derive the capital level at the optimal timing of adoption. We show that this capital threshold is independent of the initial conditions on the stock of capital, implying that capital-poor countries tend to take longer to adopt. Also, country-specific characteristics, as the existence of high barriers to adoption, may lead to different capital thresholds for different countries. If the marginal utility of environmental quality decreases with consumption, a country should never delay adoption; the optimal policy is either to adopt immediately or, if adoption costs are “too high”, to never adopt. The policy implications of these results are discussed in the context of the international debate surrounding the environmental political agenda.      

农户生态耕种采纳行为影响因素实证研究——基于江西省1488份农户的调查数据

基于江西省11市47县(区)1488份农户调查问卷数据,运用多元有序Logistic模型,分析并探究农户生态耕种采纳行为的影响因素。结果表明:家庭总人口具有显著的负向影响;兼业程度、农业收入占比、家中是否有村干部、是否参加新农保、是否有农业补贴、是否为家庭农场、是否加入合作社、近年耕地质量变化、相关信息获取难度等9个变量具有显著的正向影响。农户对生态耕种行为采纳的均值只有4.74项,总体偏低,生态耕种行为有待推广与应用。论文探究了农户生态耕种采纳行为的影响因素,为生态耕种的推广、实现耕地资源的可持续发展、激励农户生态耕种政策的制定提供了参考。     

中部生态脆弱地区农民对新技术采用意愿研究——基于中部六省生态脆弱地区582位农民的调查

通过对中部生态脆弱地区农民的调查,运用逻辑(Logistic)模型探讨农民采用农业新技术的影响因素.分析结果表明,中部生态脆弱地区农民已经深刻认识到农业科技对于脱贫致富的重要作用,但对农业新技术的采用意愿相对较低.通过进一步对农业新技术采用意愿的影响因素检验,结果发现,农民是否是科技示范户,是否是农业经营大户,是否可以便捷地获取农业科技信息,农民的性别、家庭人均收入、受教育程度,以及是否参加过农业科技培训等因素对农民采用新技术意愿有显著的影响,呈现正相关关系;年龄和外出务工时间对农民采用新技术也有显著的影响,呈现负相关关系;是否村干部,是否具有一定的专业技能对生态脆弱地区农民新技术的采用意愿影响不显著.在此基础上提出相关对策建议.     

技术创新、发展阶段与科技战略选择——以台湾“后发式”科技发展战略为例

科技发展战略要符合经济发展的阶段性要求。中国台湾运用＂后发式＂科技发展战略,短期内达到了大陆2020年的科技发展指标目标,实现了经济赶超。此后,由于科技战略的惯性,台湾继续＂后发式＂发展战略,而此次带来的却是经济增长低迷与科技数据＂繁荣＂的悖论。一则体现了科技发展战略与经济发展阶段相适应的必要性,一则给大陆科技体制改革、建设创新型国家的指标体系构建提供了重要的借鉴意义。     

自助服务技术采纳的前因与模式:文献综述

通过系统梳理自助服务技术研究文献,总结了两类自助服务技术采纳前因——认知型前因和情感型前因,归纳出三种自助服务技术采纳模式——认知驱动模式、情感驱动模式及认知和情感综合驱动模式。研究表明:在自助服务技术采纳前因研究中,认知型前因所占比重很大,而情感型前因所占比重相对较小;三种采纳模式对自助服务技术采纳现象均起到了很好的理解和预测作用。最后,提出了自助服务技术采纳研究的发展方向。     

IT采纳作用下组织冗余与企业绩效的关系

研究了企业IT采纳作用下组织冗余与企业绩效的关系,考虑了IT采纳水平和IT采纳时间对该关系的调节效果。运用"中国企业信息化500强"中上市公司的面板数据进行验证,发现企业IT采纳实施后,在IT采纳时间和IT采纳水平的调节下,4种类型的组织冗余与企业绩效存在不同的关系。     

Herd Behaviour in Adoption of Network Technologies

In technology adoption, herd behaviour can lead to a suboptimal outcome as shown, among others, by Choi (1997). However, empirics find little support for the idea that a less efficient technology can conquer the market and lock out a more efficient one. Accordingly, we improve and generalize Choi's results, by introducing an additional source of uncertainty: the economic environment. We investigate how the economic environment can affect herding and consequently the efficiency of the technology choice. The result is a smaller adoption bias. In the limit, firms may optimally experiment with the new technology that turns out to be social welfare improving.     

创新培训理念、培育新型农民的几点思考——基于河南省326个农户劳动时间利用情况的调查

以河南省HA市、HB县和HC县①34个村的326个农户调查数据为基础,探讨了当前农村劳动力培训中存在的问题,针对如何培育新型农民,提出创新培训理念、细分培训对象,使培训由政府主导的\"强制型\"向\"诱致型\"转变。     

Skill-Specific rather than General Education: A Reason for US–Europe Growth Differences?

In this paper, we develop a model of technology adoption and economic growth in which households optimally obtain either a concept-based, general education or a skill-specific, vocational education. General education is costly to obtain, but enables workers to operate new production technologies. Firms weigh the cost of adopting and operating new technologies against increased profits and optimally choose the level of adoption. We show that an economy whose policies favor vocational education will grow slower in equilibrium than one that favors general education. More importantly, the gap between their growth rates will increase with the growth rate of available technology. By characterizing the optimal Ramsey education policy we also demonstrate that the optimal subsidy for general education increases with the growth rate of available technology. Our theory suggests that European education policies that favored specialized, vocational education might have worked well, both in terms of growth rates and welfare, during the 1960s and 1970s when available technologies changed slowly. However, in the information age of the 1980s and 1990s when new technologies emerged at a more rapid pace, they might have contributed to an increased growth gap relative to the United States.