房地产价格与宏观经济互动关系实证研究——基于我国31个省份面板数据分析

运用面板数据模型对我国1995-2006年31个省市的数据进行分析后发现,房地产价格明显受利率和通货膨胀率的影响,而且房地产供给、收入等基础性宏观经济变量在中长期也决定房地产价格。房地产价格明显影响到宏观经济稳定,房地产价格上升会增加社会总投资和总消费,房地产投资通过"财富效应"对消费的影响始终明显,对社会总投资的影响也非常显著。因此,当前要稳定宏观经济,促进经济增长,必须稳定房地产价格。     

Medieval representative assemblies: collective action and antecedents of limited government

Medieval monarchs in Western Europe responded to financial and military pressures by instituting representative assemblies. Three estates (classes; orders) were represented in these assemblies: clergy, nobility, and burghers. In the late medieval and early modern periods, some states tended towards absolutism (e.g., France); others towards constitutional monarchy (e.g., England). The German historian Otto Hintze conjectured that two-chamber assemblies were more likely to resist monarchical encroachments on their political authority than three-chamber assemblies. We argue that the two- versus three-chamber distinction is coincidental to what was truly relevant: whether chambers were estate-based or had mixed representation from multiple estates. We provide a comparative institutional analysis that emphasizes political bargaining and the costs of expressing special versus common interests. This analysis suggests that mixed representation assemblies, all else equal, provided a stronger check on absolutism than their estate-based counterparts. We also provide historical case studies of France and England that lend insights into why an estate-based Estates General arose in the former, while a mixed representation Parliament arose in the latter.     

THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF PERSONAL WEALTH IN FRANCE (1977): A FIRST ATTEMPT AT THE ESTATE DUTY METHOD

This paper reports upon the first official application of the estate multiplier method of estimating the wealth distribution to French data. It is based upon a sample of estate duty returns filed during the period September-December 1977. The sampling rate was 5 percent for estates under one million francs, and 100 percent for estates over this level, giving a total of 5031 records. The data available did not permit a breakdown by type of asset. It did, however, permit classification of estates by age, sex, and occupation of decedent. Experiments were conducted using five different sets of mortality multipliers. The set of mortality multipliers judged most appropriate leads to an estimate of aggregate net wealth that is 77 percent of that given in the national balance sheet of the national accounts. Comparison of the distributions of wealth derived in these estimates suggest that the figures are consistent with those found in other countries.     

Lobbying,Family Concerns,and the Lack of Political Support for Estate Taxation

We provide an explanation for why estate taxation is surprisingly little used, given the skewness of the estate distribution. Taxing estates implies meddling with intra‐family decisions, which is frown upon by many. At the same time, given the concentration of estates a small proportion of the population stands to gain a lot by decreasing estate taxation. We provide an analytical model, together with numerical simulations, where agents bequeathing large estates make monetary contributions to play up the salience of the encroachment aspects of estate taxation on family decisions and to decrease its political support.     

Causality, real estate prices, and the current account

This paper explores the causal relations between real estate prices and the current account using recently developed econometric methods for recursive systems. Using a variety of high-quality real estate indices, we find little evidence that current account deficits (capital account surpluses) directly drove real estate prices in the United States, Spain, and Ireland. There is some evidence for this linkage in England; however it is transitory and not persistent. There is also strong evidence that current account surpluses have direct impacts on mortgage rates in the United States, providing an indirect channel for stimulating the real estate market mediated through the financial markets.     

The efficiency of museums: a stochastic frontier production function approach

This article examines the technical efficiency of museums based upon data derived from a questionnaire survey of South West England. A stochastic frontier production function is estimated with output measured in terms of visitor numbers. The Cobb-Douglas function is shown to be the best representation of the production function. Average levels of efficiency are estimated to be fairly low at 45.5% with wide variations across museums. The results indicate that high levels of public funding and voluntary activity have a significantly negative impact on technical efficiency. It is argued that further research is needed to develop more sophisticated measures of the output of cultural industries and understand the economic importance of volunteers.     

我国银行信贷与房地产价格关系研究

文章对银行信贷与房地产价格之间的互动关系进行了完整的作用机制分析,并使用更细致和精确的数据建立VAR模型进行了实证研究。研究发现,银行信贷扩张与房地产价格上涨具有明显的相互推动和加强的作用。具体而言,房地产开发商贷款和个人购房贷款对房价都具有显著的正向影响,同时对来自房价冲击的响应也都是正向的。并且,在房价持续高速上升时期,房地产贷款规模对房价的影响力明显超过贷款利率。     

Estate recovery and long‐term care insurance

Estate recovery is a policy under which the state recovers part of long‐term care (LTC) subsidies from the estates of deceased beneficiaries. This paper studies the effect of estate recovery on LTC insurance demand. This effect strongly relies on the bequest motive since the main purpose behind purchasing LTC insurance is to protect bequests from the financial costs of LTC. We find that the impact of estate recovery on LTC insurance depends on the level of parental bequests and on whether and how the parent anticipates the child's preferences with respect to informal care. More specifically, we show that estate recovery encourages the parent to purchase LTC insurance when his child is considered selfish or to like providing care. However, this policy could provide disincentives to LTC insurance purchase by the parent if his child is considered to dislike providing informal care. Our results also show that estate recovery reduces and may even eliminate public support crowding out of private LTC insurance demand. Finally, we characterize the welfare implications of financing LTC public support by estate recovery.     

Equalization of true gift and estate tax rates

The paper sets out to show that persons included under the U.S. Federal Estate Tax equalize true gift and estate tax rates, and thereby minimize their transfer taxes. True tax rate formulas are derived which take into account the preferential treatment of unrealized gains in estates under the Federal income tax. A comparison is drawn between shares of unrealized capital gains predicted from true tax rate equalization and shares estimated from stock-price data. The two are found to be quite similar.     

异质有限理性预期与住宅价格动态反馈机制系统仿真

本文基于"异质有限理性预期",运用"系统动力学方法"分析了开发商、自住性及投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的动态反馈关系及对住宅价格的影响。研究发现:开发商和投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格存在正反馈效应,自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格分别存在负反馈和正反馈效应;2006年以前,自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的负反馈效应不明显,开发商和自住性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的正反馈机制是推动住宅价格持续上涨的主要动力源;2006年以后,开发商和投资性购房者的预期与住宅价格之间的正反馈机制是支撑住宅价格持续上涨的主要动力;2007年之后,住宅价格和市场需求严重脱节;抑制投资性购房需求在采取"堵压"策略的同时,更应注重引导民间资本流向实体经济。     

MEASUREMENT AND DETERMINANTS OF EFFICIENCY AND PRODUCTIVITY IN THE FURTHER EDUCATION SECTOR IN ENGLAND

This study uses data for nearly 200 further education providers in England to investigate the level of efficiency and change in productivity over the period 1999–2003. Using data envelopment analysis we find that the mean provider efficiency varies between 83 and 90 percent over the period. Productivity change over the period was around 12 percent, and this comprised 8 percent technology change and 4 percent technical efficiency change. A multivariate analysis is therefore performed, which shows that, in general, student-related variables such as gender, ethnic and age mix are more important than staff-related variables in determining efficiency levels. The local unemployment rate also has an effect on provider efficiency. The policy implications of the results are that further education providers should implement strategies to improve the completion and achievement rates of white males, and should also offer increased administrative support to teachers.     

MEASUREMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN CANADA

The only periodic data available in Canada on the asset holdings and net worth of the household sector are data collected through a series of household surveys originally initiated in 1954. Some limited data on the holdings of financial claims by the personal and unincorporated business sector are available from flow of funds work. Data are unavailable for estimation from estate tax returns.
The scope of the surveys has been expanded substantially so that the most recent survey obtained a very comprehensive list of asset holdings. The experience with Canadian surveys has been similar to that of other countries; surveys appear to underestimate asset holdings although the estimates are more reliable for widely held assets than for assets with a very skewed distribution. Nevertheless, the surveys appear to trace the accumulated distribution of personal savings over time to a considerable degree and provide useful cross-sectional trend data.
Canadian data show that wealth is more unequally distributed among family units than is income although wealth appears to be more equally distributed between income groups than is income. Wealth is also very unequally distributed within the same income group. Over time, there appears to have been some movement towards a more equal distribution of asset holdings between income groups.     

Index arbitrage and dynamics between REIT index futures and spot prices

This article contributes to the real estate literature by investigating the pricing relationship between REIT index futures and spot. Based on the cost-of-carry model, we first show that there exist three arbitrage regimes in Australia’s REIT spot-futures price dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the two thresholds, which separate the regimes, are largely consistent with the level dictated by transaction costs. We then estimate a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM). The results show that mean reversion of the mispricing error only takes place in the two outer regimes. Furthermore, we find evidence that REIT spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market. Given its short history, it will take time for REIT index futures market to mature. Finally, we find that we can enhance hedging performance by accommodating the feature of threshold cointegration displayed by the data. As the futures-spot relationship differs across regimes, we can develop a hedging strategy by adjusting the hedge ratio based on arbitrage regimes. It leads to a greater variance reduction for the hedged portfolio than some conventional methods examined in the existing real estate literature.     

土地增值税的征收应缓行

我国推行土地增值税已有十余年,但其运行效果并不理想.尤其是2001年以来土地一级市场的交易方式改为"招、拍、挂"后,土地增值收益已提前一轮完成分配,表现在房地产企业的实际情形就是大部分项目没有形成土地增值税税负.为此,房地产实业界和学术界对土地增值税的存在意义进行了激烈争论.本文在对土地增值税进行简单理论分析后,以成都市代表性楼盘以及成都市部分房地产公司的土地增值税税负水平为支撑,从微观和中观层面进行描述统计分析,再结合全国数据佐证本文基本结论--土地增值税应暂缓征收.     

构建中国房地产业的新型融资方式——房地产投资信托基金探析

房地产市场对资金需求的扩大和融资渠道的变窄之间的矛盾使得创新房地产融资渠道提上了议事日程,在对房地产投资信托基金(REIT)进行了系统介绍的前提下,分析了我国发展房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的可行性和重要性,对我国发展房地产投资信托基金(REIT)提出了构想思路和政策建议,以期推动中国房地产投资信托基金(C-REIT)的发展。     

收入差距与中国房地产价格:理论与实证——兼论当前房地产调控的有效性

本文从房地产同时具有消费属性和资产属性出发,通过构建一个理论模型,分析收入差距对房地产价格的影响机制,理论模型认为收入差距对房地产价格具有正向影响,经济的基本面和房地产的基本面对房价的上涨不具有完全的解释力。在理论模型的基础上,利用中国的数据实证分析收入差距对中国房地产价格的影响,实证结果表明收入差距对房地产价格具有显著的正向影响,说明中国当前较大的收入差距是房地产价格上升的重要影响因素。     

南京市居民移动信息化水平及其影响因素研究

移动信息的使用对居民的行为产生不同程度的影响,分析居民移动信息化水平,是开展居民时空行为特征研究的重要基础。以南京市居民个人移动信息问卷调查数据为基础,构建居民移动信息化水平指标体系,采用主成分分析、多元回归等方法研究居民移动信息化水平指数和影响因素,分析了南京市居民移动信息化水平的分布特征。结果表明：大部分居民移动信息化水平指数集中在0.3—0.5之间,调查样本的移动信息化水平指数总体上呈正态分布规律;在服务业和高端制造业相对集聚的地区移动信息化水平相对较高,移动信息技术对产业的布局和发展起到一定的支撑作用;居民个人的社会经济属性对移动信息化水平产生较显著的影响,尤其是年龄、月收入、学历对移动信息化水平影响较大。     

竞争、产权、公司治理三大理论的相对重要性及交互关系

对于国有企业与民营企业间的绩效差异,文献一般从三个理论角度进行研究:竞争、产权与公司治理。但是我们认为其中的各种观点都只强调了某一个方面而忽略了其他方面。本文采用世界银行对中国5大城市7个行业的700多家公司在1996—2001年运营情况的调查数据,分别从单因素效应、多因素效应以及它们之间的相互作用三个方面,对以上三个理论的相对重要性进行了实证研究。研究发现:(1)当分别对各单个因素进行考察时,各因素都对样本公司绩效有积极影响。然而当对这些因素进行综合考察时,我们发现产权结构与公司治理作用相对重要,而竞争效应则不甚显著;(2)在产权与公司治理,以及产权与竞争之间,存在着某种程度的替代性;(3)非国有企业在某些治理机制方面比国有企业显示出特定的优势,但另一方面市场竞争对于国有企业绩效影响大于对非国有企业的影响。研究表明,现有的理论观点都有其片面性,对企业绩效的全面的研究需要将三个理论体系结合起来进行综合考察。我们的研究将对中国正在推行的民营化浪潮,以及改善公司治理和完善市场竞争,都具有重要的政策指导意义。     

我国房地产宏观调控政策效应实证分析

近年来,我国房地产市场虽日趋成熟,但房价波动仍然较大,为此政府对房地产行业进行了多次宏观调控。本文采用中国房地产指数通过GARCH类模型对北京、上海两大城市的住宅和商铺数据进行回归分析,通过分析得出以下结论。其一,政府对房地产的调控政策对各个市场的影响不同,且住宅市场受到的影响要大于商铺市场。其二,政府实施的鼓励或调控的政策对各地房地产市场造成的冲击效用也不相同,以首轮调控“国八条”的冲击是最大的。