The Effect of Capital Gains Taxation on Home Sales: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97) significantly changed the tax treatment of housing capital gains in the United States. Before 1997, homeowners were subject to capital gains taxation when they sold their houses unless they purchased replacement homes of equal or greater value. Since 1997, homeowners can exclude capital gains of $500,000 (or $250,000 for single filers) when they sell their houses. Such dramatic changes provide a good opportunity to study the lock-in effect of capital gains taxation on home sales. Using 1982-2008 transaction data on single-family houses in 16 affluent towns within the Boston metropolitan area, I find that TRA97 reversed the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes on houses with low and moderate capital gains. Specifically, the semiannual sales rate of houses with positive gains up to $500,000 increased by 0.40-0.62 percentage points after TRA97, representing a 19-24 percent increase from the pre-TRA97 baseline sales rate. In contrast, I do not find TRA97 to have a significant effect on houses with gains above $500,000. Moreover, the short-term effect of TRA97 is much larger than the long-term effect, suggesting that many previously locked-in homeowners took advantage of the exclusions immediately after TRA97. In addition, I exploit the 2001 and 2003 legislative changes in the capital gains tax rate to estimate the tax elasticity of home sales during the post-TRA97 period. The estimation results suggest that a $10,000 increase in capital gains taxes reduces the semiannual home sales rate by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points, or 6-13 percent from the post-TRA97 average sales rate.     

Taxation of Non-Cash Fringe Benefits

This article examines the introduction of a fringe benefits tax (FBT) as part of a revenue-neutral package with personal income tax cuts. With an effective tax-wage bargain in force, such an FBT package will not increase labour costs overall. It will, however, increase the labour costs of employers who, prior to the tax reform, were paying above average shares of their employees' remuneration in non-cash benefits. Employers whose pre-reform labour costs contained relatively low shares of non-cash payments will experience falls in labour costs.     

The estate tax and the demise of the family business

This paper uses data from San Francisco probate records to estimate if, and to what extent, the estate tax forces the sale of family businesses and farms; this question cannot be addressed with estate tax return data. Farmers and small business owners frequently complain that the estate tax makes it difficult to pass their operations on to their heirs. If there are insufficient liquid assets in the entrepreneur's estate, the heirs may be forced to sell the enterprise in order to pay the estate tax. Using variation in tax liability from state and federal tax changes in 1982, I estimate the effect of the estate tax on business sales. Estimates from models using cross-year tax variation and a difference-in-difference strategy provide some evidence for a positive effect of the estate tax on sales, although it is difficult to link this to explicit measures of liquidity need.     

Impact of US market access on local labour markets in Vietnam

This paper examines the impact of US market access on local labour markets in a developing country, Vietnam. Following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement (BTA) in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to US tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. Among three potential channels of local job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production and real estate, the demand channel is the most important. The BTA is also found to reduce employment gaps, especially in manufacturing, between females and males, rural and urban, and poor and rich households.     

On the Effectiveness of Capital Gains tax as a Stabilizer of Real Estate Prices

This paper examines the effectiveness of capital gains tax as a stabilizer of real estate prices. Capital gains tax is shown to induce long-term holdings of real estate through a tax deferral effects and hence negate the intended effect. Furthermore, it is shown that a change in the tax rate may stabilize the price only temporarily without any lasting effect on the speculative holdings of real estate. Of course the presence of property tax, for example, may affect speculative activities differently—a subject into which this paper does not delve. [323]     

Dynamic scoring: Alternative financing schemes

Neoclassical growth models predict that reductions in capital or labor income tax rates are expansionary when lump-sum transfers are used to balance the government budget. This paper explores the consequences of bond-financed tax reductions that bring forth a range of possible offsetting policies, including future government consumption, capital tax rates, or labor tax rates. Through the resulting intertemporal distortions, current tax cuts can be expansionary or contractionary. The paper also finds that more aggressive responses of offsetting policies to debt engender less debt accumulation and less costly tax cuts.     

减税能否提高企业生产效率?——基于西部大开发准自然实验的研究

降低实体经济企业成本,提高其经济效率,是我国供给侧改革的核心内容,而减税政策是重中之重.文章以西部大开发作为准自然实验,基于1998-2007年工业企业微观数据,使用双重差分法研究了减税对实体经济的影响.研究发现,减税政策能够刺激实体经济发展,名义税率每下降1%,企业生产效率平均提高0.38%-0.75%.减税对企业生产效率的影响既有直接效应也存在间接效应.直接效应表现为减税有利于存续企业生产效率的提升,间接效应则表现为减税可以刺激更多的创业活动,而新进入企业比存续企业具有更高的生产效率.异质性检验表明,小企业比大企业对于减税政策更加敏感,而且减税对生产效率的影响随着时间推移先增加后减小,存在长期收敛效应.文章为我国减税政策如何影响企业生产效率提供了经验证据,对于今后税收政策的制定具有重要的理论与实践意义.     

Cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains

This paper studies the cross-base tax elasticity of capital gains realizations to labour income taxes when capital gains are taxed at a separate proportional tax rate. Using a longitudinal panel of over 265 000 individuals in Sweden, this paper shows in a regression kink design that labour income taxes affect capital gains realizations in two ways. An increase in the marginal labour income tax rate increases the likelihood of realizing capital gains and the amount of realized capital gains. One implication of this result is that labour income taxes have a lock-out effect but that the magnitude of this effect is smaller than the lock-in effect of the actual capital gains tax.     

Do estate and gift taxes affect the timing of private transfers?

Proposals to alter the estate tax are contentious and have been considered largely in an empirical vacuum. This paper examines time series and cross-sectional variation to identify the effects of estate and gift taxation on the timing of private transfers. The analysis is based on data from the 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 Surveys of Consumer Finances. Legislative activity during this period reduced the tax disadvantage of bequests relative to gifts. Moreover, the magnitude of this reduction differed systematically across identifiable household categories. We find that households experiencing larger declines in the expected tax disadvantages of bequests reduced inter vivos transfers relative to households experiencing small declines in the tax disadvantages of bequests. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that the timing of transfers is responsive to applicable gift and estate tax rates. The results also provide evidence of a systematic bequest motive for high-wealth households.     

REAL ESTATE TAX IN URBAN CHINA

Since its foundation in 1949, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has adopted several contrasting policies to address the urban housing problem. Among them have been changes in real estate tax law. The first real estate tax laws in the PRC were promulgated in January 1950. Amended several times, they became ineffective after 1973. In September 1986, the State Council promulgated a new real estate tax law affecting all urban properties. According to this new law, real estate taxes are to be levied on owners, so that most real estate taxes have been paid by enterprises rather than households. However, with the recent drive to privatize housing in urban China, property rights are being transferred from public to private ownership, and in conjunction with real estate taxes, this is producing undesired inequalities. This paper investigates the development of real estate taxation, examines the role of property tax in the ongoing housing reform, and recommends changes in real estate taxes that would better achieve the government's egalitarian goals. ( JEL H20, R31)     

房产税未来能成为我国地方 财政收入的可靠来源吗

本文基于房地产行业近年来异军突起、畸形发展、房价高企的民生背景,探讨当前的房产税改革是否能够有效调控房地产市场,解决房价高企问题,纾解民生困局,最终化解财政风险、培育地方财政收入主要来源。研究过程表明,第一,鉴于房产税作为一种财产税的特殊性以及房地产市场的特殊复杂性,房产税改革过程本身就步履维艰。第二,我国社会经济、人口、城市化等因素的中长期发展,可能使房价丧失长期上涨的动力,从而使房产税丧失其未来成为地方税主体税种的基础和前提。     

Does a lower (higher) labour force participation rate imply greater (lower) income tax evasion? An exploratory empirical inquiry for the U.S.

This exploratory study seeks to add to the income tax evasion literature by investigating a heretofore ignored potential determinant of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion in the U.S., namely, the labour force participation rate. It is hypothesized that the higher (lower) the labour force participation rate, the lower (greater) the degree of tax evasion. The empirical estimation supports this hypothesis, finding that a one unit (one percentage point) increase (decrease) in the labour force participation rate leads to a 9.1% decrease (increase) in income tax evasion. Thus, the declining labour force participation in recent years implies increased tax evasion problems for the U.S.     

Asymmetric tax multipliers

Using recently published tax series by Romer and Romer (2010) and Cloyne (2013) we examine whether or not positive and negative tax shocks have asymmetric effects on the U.S. and U.K. economies. We find that in the U.S. positive tax shocks—tax increases—do not affect output while negative tax shocks—tax cuts—have large, positive effects. In the U.K., tax increases substantially reduce output while tax cuts have no significant effect.     

我国房地产税与房价关系的实证研究

本文以我国1988--2006年房地产税和房价的相关数据为基础,通过协整分析、向量自回归、误差修正和Granger因果检验,研究了我国房地产税对房价的短期影响及两者的长期关系。结论如下：我国房地产税和房价之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,房价和房地产税存在正相关关系,调高房地产税会引起房价增长;在不考虑地方公共支出对房价影响的情况下,房地产税的长期影响效应要大于短期影响效应;我国房地产税制设置欠完善,房地产税的变化会影响房价,而房价的变化不会影响房地产税。最后,本文提出,应对现行的房地产税收制度进行改革,减少房地产流通环节的税种和税负,开征物业税。     

地区比较角度的地方政府土地财政依赖研究

地方政府对土地财政的依赖已经成为当前急需解决的重要问题。选取东中西部代表性的省份广东、湖北、陕西,分析三省的地方财政收入、房地产相关税收和国有土地使用权出让收入之间的关系。结果显示：有针对性地改革当前房地产相关税收和国有土地出让制度,降低房地产市场波动对地方财政收入的影响,有利于地方财政的安全和房地产行业的长远健康发展。     

Choosing between gifts and bequests: How taxes affect the timing of wealth transfers

A number of theories have been advanced to explain the size and timing of intergenerational transfers. One factor only recently explored is the effects of taxes, and in particular the estate tax, on such transfers. This paper represents the first attempt to explore how capital gains and gift taxes, in addition to the estate tax, interact to influence incentives in the timing of transfers. Using estate tax data and exploiting variations in state inheritance, gift, and capital gains tax rates, this paper finds taxes to be an important consideration in the choice between gifts and bequests. In particular, each of capital gains and gift taxes are found to be important determinants of the timing of transfers. These findings are robust to a number of specifications that control for borrowing, charitable bequests, marital status, and the portfolio composition of wealth transfers.     

Tales of fiscal adjustment

This paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from the early 1960s to today. The results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects. One interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand. Wealth rises when future tax burdens decline, and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate. Both consumption and investment rise. For this effect to produce an expansion, the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up. Another interpretation emphasizes the supply side. Typically, a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short-lived. To be long lasting, it must include cuts in public employment, transfers and government wages. To be politically possible, such a policy must be supported by trade unions. These measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side. Based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis of ten cases of major fiscal adjustment, this article provides cautious support to the supply-side view, without denying a more limited role for the demand-side channel.     

Time-consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and a balanced government budget

Abstract .  This paper analyzes optimal, time consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and with a balanced government budget. When tax revenue is used for publicly provided consumption or lump-sum transfers, leisure would be higher than its social optimum. Pareto optimal taxation requires taxing capital income more heavily than labour income and subsidizing investment at the same rate of the tax. Also, it requires either subsidizing labour at the same rate as a consumption tax or subsidizing consumption at the same rate as a labour income tax, and hence it is not a practical guide to policy. Further, a consumption tax, or equivalently a uniform income tax with investment subsidies at the same rate, can be improved on by taxing capital income more heavily than labour income.     

A macroeconomic analysis of sales and payroll tax cuts

This paper analyzes the short-run impact of sales and payroll tax cuts in a complete macroeconomic model which explicitly involves the government financing constraint. Sales and payroll tax cuts have been stressed as good measures for achieving once-for-all price level reductions. We demonstrate that in quite plausible circumstances, cuts in these taxes (financed by an increase in the personal tax rate) result in the price level increasing, not decreasing. Also, it is shown that a policy package involving a wage subsidy and a profits tax hike must involve employment and investment moving in the same, not the opposite, direction.     

Optimal nonlinear income taxation with learning-by-doing

This paper examines a two-period model of optimal nonlinear income taxation with learning-by-doing, in which second-period wages are an increasing function of first-period labour supply. We consider the cases when the government can and cannot commit to its second-period tax policy. In both cases, the canonical Mirrlees/Stiglitz results regarding optimal marginal tax rates generally no longer apply. In particular, if the government cannot commit and each consumer's skill-type is revealed, it is optimal to distort the high-skill type's labour supply downwards through a positive marginal tax rate to relax an incentive-compatibility constraint. Our analysis therefore identifies a setting in which a positive marginal tax rate on the highest-skill individual can be justified, despite its depressing effect on both labour supply and wages.