中国装备制造业的出口依存度及对外市场的需求弹性研究——基于行业面板数据的分析

文章利用装备制造业7个子行业2001-2009年出口交货值和产业销售值数据,对产业的对外市场需求弹性进行了动态实证研究,并在此基础上利用7个子行业的对外市场需求弹性系数作为权重,对装备制造业的对外依存度进行了新的计算。研究结果表明,装备制造业7个子行业在短期内对外市场需求缺乏弹性,而部分行业在长期内对外市场需求富有弹性;根据对外依存度的传统定义,在产业迅速发展时期,由于没有考虑到市场需求弹性因素,对产业的对外依存度存在高估。     

TV advertising spillovers and demand for private labels: the case of carbonated soft drinks

The expansion of private labels, or store brands, has transformed consumer choice sets and competition in retail markets, prompting manufacturers to fight back with renewed pricing and product and promotion strategies to forestall further private label expansion. This article examines the spillover effects of television advertising on brand-level consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), including private labels, using a random coefficients logit model with household purchasing and advertising viewing Nielsen data. As in previous work, we find that although brand spillover effects significantly increase demand for CSD brands in the same company and undermine demand facing other manufacturers’ CSD brands, surprisingly, there are positive spillover effects on the demand for private label brands. This indicates that brand advertising is persuasive with respect to manufacturers’ brands but complementary with respect to private labels. Further results show that eliminating television advertising for CSDs would lower aggregate CSD sales as consumers migrate to other beverages, although private labels stand to gain, particularly Wal-Mart brands.     

Modelling with flexibility through the business cycle: using a panel smooth transition model to test for the lipstick effect

ABSTRACT

Consumer spending typically declines during periods of economic distress, but observers have noted that lipstick purchases appear to increase during recessions, which is often referred to as the lipstick effect. However, the existence of such effect has remained empirically unconfirmed. Using weekly retail scanner data on lipstick sales from 2006 to 2016 in the United States, we applied a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) demand model to test the relationship between economic distress and lipstick sales. This flexible demand specification allows regression coefficients to vary as a function of an exogenous macroeconomic variables and fluctuate asymmetrically, non-linearly, and time-varyingly across an unlimited number of regimes. Empirical results show the income elasticity of demand for lipstick decreased rapidly from 0.31 to 0.05 during the 2007–2009 recession, then slowly rebounded to 0.31 by the second quarter of 2014, thus first empirically confirming the existence of the lipstick effect.     

Determinants of retail wine prices: evidence from Cyprus

This study uses a detailed panel dataset for the Cyprus wine market and a fixed effects simultaneous equations model specification to investigate retail wine price determinants. Our results show that producers’ pricing policies tend to be influenced more by the level of market concentration in the wine and retail industries than by competitors’ price movements. We propose a sales response model to identify the impact of marketing drivers on sales. Wine consumption in Cyprus is unit elastic, but the impact of competitive prices and retail distribution coverage on sales is small.     

Third-degree price discrimination in a short-stay accommodation industry

This article analyses the pricing in the short-stay accommodation industry in Tasmania. It utilizes a novel 2008 survey of Tasmanian short-stay accommodation firms in which business managers were asked about their perception of the elasticity of their firm’s demand in each of the market segments that their firm supplied. This direct observation of elasticity allows us to demonstrate that firms’ price across market segments act in a manner consistent with the Lerner index and the theory of third-degree price discrimination. Further we show, in line with expectations based on the literature, that increased quality of the accommodation lowers the elasticity of demand, while the elasticity of demand is higher in winter. Surprisingly, Internet sales channels do not exhibit a different elasticity of demand to other sales channels.     

Measuring and testing advertising-induced rotation in the demand curve

Advertising can rotate the demand curve if it changes the dispersion of consumers’ valuations. We provide an elasticity form measure of the advertising-induced demand curve rotation in five demand models and test for its presence in the US nonalcoholic beverage market. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model reveals that doubling advertising spending rotates the demand curves clockwise for milk, and coffee and tea with associated slope changes of 7 and 12%. Soft-drink advertising rotates its demand curve counterclockwise. Our policy suggestion is that milk and soft-drink firms time advertising to coincide with high-and low-price periods, respectively.     

RETURNS SYSTEM WITH REBATES*

We consider a variant of the newsvendor problem. Atomistic retailers each buy merchandise from a monopoly supplier for resale at a market‐determined common retail price that depends upon the total industry order quantity and upon a stochastic demand. After the orders are filled, the supplier learns the realization of demand but the retailers do not. We show that, in this setting, a returns system with rebates (with previously set buy‐back price for returns and ex post payments from the supplier to each retailer per unit actually sold) implements the optimal production and sales strategy, attaining maximum expected profit in the channel.     

A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

Advertising and US alcoholic beverage demand: system-wide estimates

The effects of advertising on consumption of alcoholic beverages in the US are analysed. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of advertising at the level of beverage demand(beer, wine, spirits) and for total consumption of alcohol (per capita gallons of ethanol). A three-equation conditional demand system is estimated that includes own- and cros-beverage advertising as explanatory variables. Four models of the differential demand system are estimated, including the Rotterdam, AID, CBS, and NBR models, using annual US data for the period 1964-90 on beverage consumption, prices, expednitures, and real advertising. Estimates are obtained of the complete matrix of own- and cross-elascities for each beverage’ price and advertising. At the beverage level, the results indicate a positive butr very small effect of advertising on beverage consumption, with most of the impact due to wine advertising and non due to beer advertising. There is no efect of advertising in the composite demand function for alcohol. Hence, the results from system-wide modelling suggest that alcohol advertising serves to reallocate brand sales, with no effect on total ethanol consumption and very small effects on beverage consumption.     

On generic vs. brand promotion of farm products in foreign markets

Farm groups and their governments spend millions of dollars each year advertising agricultural products in international markets. Intuitively, country-of-origin or ‘brand’ advertising should be more profitable than generic advertising in that it enhances product differentiation and reduces free riding. However, unlike generic advertising, brand advertising decreases the demand for competing imports and lowers their prices when supplies are upward sloping. In addition to inviting retaliation, the decline in the prices of competing products erodes the price of the advertised product through second-round or ‘market feedback’ effects. In this study, we develop a generalized model for assessing the relative effectiveness of generic and brand promotion in the international market when products are differentiated by source origin and supplies are uncontrolled. Applying the model to US beef promotion in Japan, we find that when brand and generic advertising are equally efficient in the sense that they cause equivalent horizontal shifts in the group and product-specific demand curves, generic advertising is indeed more profitable for most of the relevant parameter space. Distributional analysis suggests that, with equal export supply elasticities, the gross benefits of generic advertising are distributed across exporters in proportion to the expenditure elasticities for the products in question.     

GENERALIZED OLIGOPOLY DERIVED DEMAND WITH AN APPLICATION TO TAX INDUCED ENTRY*

Equations are derived for the factor demand of an N firm oligopoly for fairly general market demand curves and production functions. Free-entry is then introduced and it is shown that this may either raise or lower derived demand elasticity. This result is then applied to show that a unit production tax may encourage entry and so cause larger changes in price and quantity in the short run than the long run.     

Bundling, product choice, and efficiency: Should cable television networks be offered à la carte?

We conduct a numerical analysis of bundling’s impact on a monopolist’s pricing and product choices and assess the implications for consumer welfare in cable television markets. Existing theory is ambiguous: for a given set of products, bundling likely transfers surplus from consumers to firms but also encourages products to be offered that might not be under à la carte pricing. Simulation of “Full À La Carte” for an economic environment calibrated to an average cable television system suggests that consumers would likely benefit from à la carte sales. If all networks continued to be offered, the average household’s surplus is predicted to increase by $6.80 (65.6%) under à la carte sales (despite a total bundle price that almost doubles) and reduced network profits would have to be such that 41 of 50 offered cable networks have to exit the market to make her indifferent. Simulation of a “Theme Tier” scenario provides intermediate benefits. The incremental marginal costs to cable systems of à la carte sales and its impact in the advertising market and on competition are important factors in determining consumer benefits.     

Kalman filter and the demand for cigarettes

kalman filter estimates of price, income and advertising elasticities are presented. An analysis of structural change in the demand for cigarettes in the US for the period 1929–86 is made. Estimated price and income elasticities are generally smaller, and the advertising elasticity larger, than estimates previously found. Cigarette demand is inelastic with respect to price and income, and advertising elasticity is statistically insignificant for the most part. Furthermore, both income and price elasticities decline over time while advertising elasticity tends to rise. Four time periods where structural change has occurred are identified. The health scare reports and the Fairness Doctrine Act have a significant impact on per capita cigarette consumption.     

Endogenous direct advertising and price competition

This paper analyzes how the use of endogenous direct advertising affects the functioning of a horizontally-differentiated market. We formulate a two-stage game of pricing and informative advertising in which two firms, first, compete with mass advertising and, later, build a database using their historical sales records and compete by directly targeting the ads on their potential customers. We show that, compared to the case where firms only use mass advertising, direct advertising yields higher advertising efforts and an intertemporal reallocation of both market power and profits from the first to the second period. We also find that targeting increases the overall firms’ profit and the level of social welfare, but the impact on the average intertemporal price and consumer surplus is ambiguous. Finally, when reaching the potential market with mass advertising is sufficiently expensive, the use of direct advertising leads firms to provide the socially optimal level of advertising whereas, if mass advertising is cheap, firms tend to launch too little advertising in the first period and too much in the second.     

Advertising and sales promotion in electricity

Pooled firm data for 1959–68 provide the first evidence that both advertising and sales promotion have been statistically significant in increasing residential electric demand. The results indicate that advertising is principally informational, that new customers are most likely to be influenced, and that the effectiveness of a given expenditure in stimulating average per customer demand decreases with the number of customers to be reached. Finally, the findings are consistent with a theory of optimal advertising-sales ratios. The Dorfman-Steiner Rule does not hold, but the evidence is that it should not be ruled out in some modified form.     

Liberalization of Opening Hours with Free Entry

Abstract. This paper studies competition in prices and opening hours in a model with free entry. It is shown that under free competition market failures arise: Entry is excessive and opening hours are under‐provided. The larger the demand elasticity, the larger market failures are going to be. Restrictions on opening hours aggravate this failure. We analyze the impact of a liberalization of opening hours. The model predicts that prices will remain constant in the short run but increase in the long run. Concentration in the retail sector will rise. Additionally, employment in the retail sector increases.     

A model of advertising format competition: on the use of celebrities in ads

We develop a model that endogenizes both advertising format – ads with or without celebrity endorsements – and the endorsement fee. Marketing studies suggest that celebrities enhance brand recall and perception of product value. In our model, ads featuring celebrities occur when the product market is large – endorsements are likely for products sold nationally – and when products are sufficiently similar that the persuasive character of advertising looms large in demand – running shoes, beauty products, soft drinks, for example. Celebrity endorsement fees are increasing in market size and in the degree of similarity of the products being advertised.     

A study of the method using search traffic to analyze new technology adoption

Various types of indices have been developed and applied for the purpose of identifying emergent technologies and forecasting their adoption. Recently, researchers have proposed search traffic analysis as a new method for tracking changes among consumers and utilizing this information to conduct further market research. Now with the onset of big data era, various attempts are being made to analyze the immense body of information made available by hidden traces left behind by consumers. In the same vein, our present study seeks to draw attention to the analytical advantages of utilizing search traffic. In this study, we use search traffic to analyze the adoption process of a new technology, in this case the technology of hybrid cars, for the purpose of verifying the potential value of conducting adoption analysis based on search traffic and we also propose a more refined method of analysis. First, we undertook to examine the keyword unit used in the searches, in order to refine our analysis of search traffic and thereby obtain greater practical utility. This was accomplished by comparing technology searches that specified the technology name with searches that specified the brand name. For each respective case, we also performed comparative analyses examining instances in which consumers simultaneously included the representative attributes of a product in their search.Our research found that the traffic of searches that specify a product's brand name was significant for explaining sales. Therefore, in the conclusion of this paper we argue that if the unit of search is properly refined, search traffic can indeed serve as an extremely useful method for analyzing or forecasting sales volume. Notably, brand-focused search traffic exhibited a superior ability to forecast sales volume compared to macro-indicators such as GDP growth or WTI prices that had been used to forecast car demand in preceding studies. Forecasting based on search traffic was even superior to forecasts using other bibliometric indices such as patent applications or news coverage.     

The US retail demand for fish products: an application of the almost ideal demand system

The main objective is to address the limitations of past US fish demand research through the development of a variation of the almost ideal demand system model for disaggregate fish products at the retail level. Price and expenditure elasticities, as well as elasticities of substitution between fish products and other protein commodities, determined from this work may be used in the context of fisheries management and market development and promotion. Results indicate that with the exception of shellfish, demand for the various fish products is relatively inelastic. Cross-price elasticities are generally moderate while expenditure elasticities are large and positive for fresh fish and shellfish. Demographic effects, especially geographical division, season, race, occupation, age–sex household composition, and price–income interaction, as a proxy for quality, are highly significant variables.     

Forecasting demand for a newly introduced product using reservation price data and Bayesian updating

Forecasting demand during the early stages of a product's life cycle is a difficult but essential task for the purposes of marketing and policymaking. This paper introduces a procedure to derive accurate forecasts for newly introduced products for which limited data are available. We begin with the assumption that the consumer reservation price is related to the timing with which the consumer adopts the product. The model is estimated using reservation price data derived through a consumer survey, and the forecast is updated with sales data as they become available using Bayes's rule. The proposed model's forecasting performance is compared with that of benchmark models (i.e., Bass model, logistic growth model, and a Bayesian model based on analogy) using 23 quarters' worth of data on South Korea's broadband Internet services market. The proposed model outperforms all benchmark models in both prelaunch and postlaunch forecasting tests, supporting the thesis that consumer reservation price can be used to forecast demand for a new product before or shortly after product launch.