International Spillovers of Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Evidence from the G7

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.     

Entrepreneurial cyclical dynamics of open innovation

This study addresses the following matters: What is the structure and mechanism of modern capital economic dynamics that motivates the growth limits of capitalism? The modern economy can be modeled as Entrepreneurial Cyclical Dynamics of Open Innovation with three sub-economies such as market open innovation by SMEs and start-ups, closed open innovation by big business, and social open innovation. When there is low balance among the three sub-economies, which is to say, if any of the sub-economies is too big, or too small, the economy dynamics decreases, and the economic growth rate slows down to nearly zero or even negative according to the model simulation. South Korea, with a low internal reserve policy, is in this situation. When there is medium balance among three sub-economies, which is to say, any of the sub-economies is big enough to lead the total economy but is not sufficiently big to control totally the other two economies, the economy dynamics increases and the economic growth rate will be maintained at a high level according to the model simulation. India, with its grassroots innovation festival, demonstrates this situation. When there is a high balance among the three sub-economies, which is to say, the three sub-economies are well balanced and there is no change in the economic system, the economy dynamics become too low and the economic growth rate stays at a low level according to the model simulation. Japan’s Hitachi is moving from this situation to a medium balance.     

Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries

Both, from a macroeconomic modeling perspective, as well as for a policy point of view, there has recently been a renewed interest in the cyclical and long-run comovement of interest rates. In this paper we re-investigate the long- and short-run comovements in the G7-countries by conducting tests for cointegration, common serial correlation and codependence with nominal and real interest rates, using quarterly data from 1975 to 2010. Overall, we find only little evidence of comovements. Common trends are occasionally observed, but the majority of interest rates are not cointegrated. Although some evidence for codependence of higher order is found in the pre-Euro area sample, common cycles appear to exist only in rare cases. We argue that some earlier, more positive findings are difficult to reconcile due to differing assumptions about the underlying stochastic properties of interest rates. We conclude that they cannot be generalized for all interest rates, time periods, and reasonable alternative estimation procedures.     

Growth trends, cyclical fluctuations, and welfare with non-expected utility preferences

Using standard time-separable, discounted expected utility (EU) models, Lucas (Models of Business Cycles, 1987) and others argue that growth trends have a crucial, and cyclical fluctuations a trivial, effect on individuals' utility. These conclusions are drastically altered if, instead, non-EU preferences are assumed.     

Output and unemployment dynamics in transition

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation and output cycles after the implementation, that are more volatile than had a reform of identical magnitude been implemented immediately. However, the more volatile output trajectory of the anticipated case yields a higher PDV of output than an unanticipated reform of equal magnitude. This suggests that an anticipated reform is better than an unanticipated reform, even though the former induces greater volatility.     

Does the G7/G8 promote trade?

I examine the effect of the Group of Eight (G8), an unofficial forum of the heads of state of the eight leading industrialized countries, on international trade. Using a gravity model, I find that membership in the G7/G8 benefits trade.     

The simple analytics and empirics of the cyclical profit squeeze and cyclical underconsumption theories: Clearing the air

This paper examines the controversies that exist between the cyclical profit squeeze (CPS) and nutcracker theories of cyclical crisis. The simple analytics and empirics of both theories are examined. It is shown that the criticisms of the CPS advanced by Sherman (1997) are invalid, and that the two components of the nutcracker theory—a cyclical underconsumption crisis plus a non-labor cost-induced decline in profits—have little relevance for explaining postwar U.S. business cycles.     

Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel

The supply side effects of both the nominal interest rate (i.e., the cost channel) and import prices on inflation are very important for the design of monetary policy. However, the empirical identification of the cost channel (traditionally associated with the advance payment of wages) has ignored import prices. We start by deducting a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) which shows that ignoring import prices in the estimation of the cost channel may lead to incorrect results. Taking this into account, we study the empirical relevance of the cost channel and import prices using the NKPC for the G7 countries. We test whether the estimation of the cost channel is affected when the price of imported inputs is considered; if it is relevant to extend the cost channel given that imports of final consumption goods are also paid in advance; if imports should be treated as inputs and/or consumption goods, and if there is an immediate or slow exchange rate pass-through. Empirical results indicate that the cost channel is present in imported consumption goods in particular, and import prices play an important role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

Money and prices: evidence from the G7 countries

This paper examines the exogeneity of money and prices within a money demand vector error-correction model. The exogeneity of the variables is central to several ‘buffer stock’ models. However, the paper makes two modifications to the traditional approach. The first is to explicitly acknowledge the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside its demand counterpart. The second is to estimate the behaviour of the nominal sector and real sector simultaneously. Overall, the results from the G7 countries suggest that the concerns raised by ‘buffer stock’ models are relevant.     

Large real exchange rate movements, firm dynamics, and productivity growth

Abstract.  This paper examines the influence of large real exchange rate movements on firm turnover and production scale, and the contribution of these decisions to productivity growth. Our theoretical model predicts that home currency appreciations cause firm closure and reduce surviving firms' exports while boosting domestic sales. The net effect on sales and productivity therefore depends on changes in domestic sales and exports. Taiwanese firm-level data are used to test these predictions. The results show that real currency appreciations lead to scale expansion of surviving firms which in turn raises productivity. Our findings suggest the existence of a significant scale effect.     

Output growth and investment dynamics in Finland: a panel data analysis

This study analyzes the relationship between output growth and investment in a panel of 20 regions of Finland over the period 1975–2007. This regional study uses Granger non-causality and error-correction models. The most important finding of this study is a unidirectional causality which runs from investment to output growth. The study also verifies the existence of a positive association between growth and investment for the panel of 20 regions of Finland. These findings reconcile with the capital fundamentalists.     

论循环经济发展的必然性

循环经济本质是一种生态经济，是把清洁生产和废弃物的综合利用融为 一体的经济。随着资源环境问题的加剧，发展循环经济已成为时代的要求，变得日益紧迫。那么，如何发展我国循环经济？本文提出了相关的建议。     

Predator-prey and neo-classical models of cyclical growth

Journal of Economics -     

Arbitrage costs and nonlinear adjustment in the G7 stock markets

This article aims to study stock price adjustments towards fundamentals due to the existence of arbitrage costs defined as the sum of transaction costs and a risky arbitrage premium associated with the uncertainty characterizing the fundamentals. Accordingly, it is shown that a two regime Smooth Transition Error Correction Model (STECM) is appropriate to reproduce the dynamics of stock price deviations from fundamentals in the G7 countries during the period 1969 to 2005. This model takes into account the interdependences or contagion effects between stock markets. Deviations appear to follow a quasi random walk in the central regime when prices are near fundamentals (i.e. when arbitrage costs are greater than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion mechanism is inactive), while they approach a white noise in the outer regimes (i.e. when arbitrage costs are lower than expected arbitrage profits, the mean reversion is active). Interestingly, as expected when arbitrage costs are heterogeneous, the estimated STECM shows that stock price adjustments are smooth and that the convergence speed depends on the size of the deviation. Finally, using two appropriate indicators proposed by Peel and Taylor (2000), both the magnitudes of under and overvaluation of stock price and the adjustment speed are calculated per date in the G7 countries. These indicators show that the dynamics of stock price adjustment are strongly dependent on both the date and the country under consideration.     

The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7

In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run comovement between prices and real activity in the G7 countries during the postwar period using vector autoregressive systems and frequency-domain filters. We find several patterns that are robust across countries and time periods. Typically, the correlation coefficients at long-run horizons are significantly negative and the correlation coefficients at short-run horizons are substantially higher. Additionally, there is evidence of positive correlation at short-run forecast horizons for some countries.     

The Endogeneity of Money: Evidence from the G7

For many years economists have argued that the money supply is endogenously determined. However, it has often been suggested that monetary regimes differ in important institutional respects and it may be that endogeneity may be true for some regimes and not for others. The aim of this paper is to test for endogeneity of money supply in the G7 countries and also to detect the existence of any interaction between the demand for bank lending and the demand for money by using recently developed techniques of causality tests. Our findings suggest that broad money is endogenous. However, the ability of the demand for loans to cause deposits is not, it seems, unconstrained by the demand for those deposits. Agents do not simply absorb whatever flow of new deposits loans might create.     

Work shifts and the cyclical behavior of productivity and real wages

To test the Lucas (1970) hypothesis that procyclical productivity movements result from aggregation over work-shifts, the paper submits two-shift and three-shift versions of the Sargent and Wallace (1974) model to simulation. Simulations for realistic work schedules show that the model is capable of explaining procyclical patterns of labor productivity only over extremely limited real wage intervals.