Family labour force participation: Multinomial logit estimates

Studies of labour force participation choices are mostly aimed at explaining determinants of participation for individuals. The objective of this study is the empirical estimation of the parameters of family participation decisions.

Family participation decisions can be analysed as a choice problem of a family between a finite number of distinct alternatives. The appropriate estimation procedure for a model involving choice among multiple discrete alternatives requires a statistical technique different from ordinary least squares. In this study I use the multinomial logit model. A logit model allows me to explain the probability that a particular participation alternative will be chosen by a family as a function of a set of independent variables.

It is found that economic variables such as wage rates and wealth, play a significant role in affecting the probabilities of choosing a particular labour force participation alternative. This study shows that an increase in the market wage for a family member not only increases the probability of labour force participation for that family member, but at the same time also reduces the probability of participation for his or her partner. Hence there is both a pure and a cross-substitution effect in participation. There is also an income effect. As wealth increases families will, in some sense, buy more leisure. Furthermore, they will allocate the extra leisure in a certain order: it is found in this study that the wife's probability of participation reduces sooner and faster than the husband's probability, as wealth increases.     

Estimating labour supply responses and welfare participation: Using a natural experiment to validate a structural labour supply model

We estimate an economic model of labour supply and welfare participation using data on single men from Quebec drawn from the 1986 Canadian Census. Detailed budget sets for each work‐welfare combination—accounting for income taxes, tax credits and welfare benefit rules—are derived using a micro‐simulation model. We show that predicted reactions to a welfare reform that took place in 1989 replicate actual changes in labour supply and welfare participation. We also illustrate the advantage of having estimated a structural model by showing how labour supply and welfare participation change when income taxes and benefit levels change.     

On the estimation of the effect of labour participation on fertility

In this paper we consider the estimation of the causal effect of female labour market status (participation and employment) on fertility. We focus on the sensitivity of the estimated effect to (i) the assumptions about the exogeneity of labour market status; and (ii) the time interval between the measurement of fertility and employment status. Using Spanish quarterly data, we estimate a switching probit model that accounts for the joint determination of both variables. In order to obtain a behavioural effect of the former on the latter, we look at the timing of conception instead of the timing of birth, and present alternative sets of estimates depending on the accuracy with which conception is measured (yearly or quarterly). Our results show a positive although non-significant effect of participation and employment on the probability of having the first child, once the sample of women who conceive in the same quarter (or one quarter later) in which labour market status is measured and the endogeneity between both variables is accounted for. We find that annual data tend to over-estimate the negative effect of employment or participation on the probability of having a child, but the main biases appear when looking at the effect of participation. We are grateful to Adrian Kalwij, Daniel Miles and two anonymous referees for helpful comments on this work. All remaining errors are our own.     

Dynamics of fertility and labour force participation of Canadian women in 1971 and 1981: a cohort approach

The authors analyze the relationship between labor force participation and fertility in Canada using data from the Public Use Sample Tapes from the 1971 and 1981 censuses. Factors considered include age, religion, educational status, and marital status. The authors conclude that "labour force participation of women seems to have less influence on fertility compared to [the] fertility effect on labour force participation."     

The effect of fertility on labour force participation: The Spanish evidence

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of fertility on the decision of labour force participation of married females in Spain, allowing for the existence of unobserved characteristics that affect both fertility and participation. We use a pooling of five waves of the European Household Panel for Spain (1994–1998). Results indicate that not taking into account the unobserved characteristics that affect both variables imposes on average a strong downward bias on the true effect of fertility on participation. This bias is especially strong for highly educated females. We are grateful to Raquel Carrasco and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Financial support from Gobierno Vasco (PI-1999-160)), Ministry of Education and Science (BE2000-1394), Instituto de la Mujer and Universidad del País Vasco (UPV 00035.321-13511/2001) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Preferences and the labour supply of married women

The paper reports the main results of using British cross-section data to estimate a labour supply function in which preference variables are interacted with terms measuring the slope and position of the budget constraint.     

The causality between fertility and female labour force participation in Japan

This study examines the correlation and reverse correlation between fertility and female labor force participation in Japan during 1950-93. The model is logarithmic and follows earlier studies by Cheng (1996) and Hsiao's (1981) version of the Granger causality method. Data were obtained from the Japan Statistical Yearbook on total fertility rates and female labor force participation rates. Tests for cointegration revealed no cointegration between measures of fertility and employment. Findings indicate that the presence of children had a strong negative effect on labor force participation. Findings are consistent with the study by Yamada and Yamada (1986) and inconsistent with the study by Hamilton (1984), who found that fertility was positive and not significantly related to female labor force participation in Japan. Findings indicate that female labor force participation had a negative and insignificant effect on fertility. These findings support findings from studies by Sprague (1988) and Maddavi (1990) and contest findings of Hamilton (1984) and Yamada and Yamada (1986) that showed negativity and significance. The authors view their findings as correctly specified and supportive of a causality that favors fertility affecting labor force participation without feedback. Findings indicate that employment does not prevent or reduce the probability of having more children. Having young children at home does strongly discourage women from seeking employment outside the home.     

Basic income and the labour market: Labour supply,precarious work and technological change

In this paper, I examine the relationship between a basic income as a policy tool and the functioning of the labour market. I focus on three key areas where a basic income has been hypothesized to relate to labour markets: (i) through altering work decisions, (ii) as a response to predicted changes in work arising from technological change and (iii) as backstop that would allow workers to demand better working conditions and higher wages. I provide answers on the role or impact of a basic income in each area in the context of the current Canadian labour market. But a key focus in the paper is on the ways we could alter our labour market models to provide a better basis for debating the impacts of policies like a basic income in the context of a goal of moving toward a more just society.     

Schooling,fertility and the labour market experience of married women

This paper discusses the role of formal schooling and child rearing in the determination of career path choice of women in the US. Data were collected from the adult educational component of the 1991 US National Household Education Survey. Data are available for about 12,568 respondents, of whom 6860 are female. It is established that, amongst others, expected earnings significantly affect the career path and the hours of work chosen by American women. Based on the results of the study, a number of conclusions have been drawn: 1) expectations of earnings affect women's choice of career path, including decisions such as labor market participation, the part-time work versus full-time work decision, and occupational choice; 2) the indirect and indirect effects of schooling and other variables on regime choice has been studied; the impact of schooling and fertility on women's labor supply follows an intuitively plausible pattern; 3) evidence provided here on the private rate of return to education confirms the findings of Bland that part-time workers do not receive a lower return than others; and 4) the importance of correcting for endogeneity and sample selection biases in the problem of earnings determination and career choice has been established.     

A time series model of fertility and female labour supply in the UK

Multiple time series procedures suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to UK data on age-specific fertility rates, age-specific female labour force participation rates, and women's and men's wages. Cointegration tests establish the existence of two long-run equilibrium relations, identified as a fertility relation and a labour supply equation, for each age group. Maximum likelihood estimates of these equations are consistent with the new home economics model of fertility, and tests of Granger-causality show evidence of extensive feedback among the variables.     

An investigation of cointegration and causality between fertility and female labour force participation

Both economists and demographers have long been interested in the nature of the relationship between fertility rate (BR) and female labor force participation (FR). Earlier work suggests an inverse relationship between BR and FR, except in preindustrial countries. The author applies Hsiao's version of the Granger causality method to examine the causality between BR and FR using transformed US data for the period 1948-93. An unidirectional causality is found to run from BR to FR with no feedback. These results confirm the hypothesis that the presence of small children discourages women from seeking employment outside of the home. Employment does not, however, affect a woman's decision to have children.     

再论服务劳动是创造价值的劳动——兼答魏新丽和肖彬二同志

本文认为,承认纯粹服务劳动是创造价值的劳动,不仅无损于马克思劳动价值理论这一科学范式的“硬核,”而且是深化对马克思的劳动价值理论认识的必然选择。这样做,决不是可有可无的事情,而是具有重大现实意义的理论创新活动。     

Household formation rules,fertility and female labour supply: Evidence from post-communist countries

This paper explains how household formation rules affect the fertility and labour supply of women in the Former Soviet Union and neighbouring countries. Women who bear a male first child in countries dominated by traditional, patrilocal households are shown to have substantially lower subsequent fertility from those whose first child is female. Where households are generally nuclear, male first borns do not reduce subsequent fertility. Middle-aged women in more patrilocal contexts often work less if their first child is male, despite reduced fertility and being more likely to reside with a daughter-in-law. In more nuclear contexts, they tend to work more. These findings suggest that household formation rules are strongly related both to women’s demand for sons and to the direction of intergenerational transfers.     

论服务劳动不是创造价值的劳动——与南京大学博士后柳新元副教授商榷

本文认为 ,从劳动价值论本来意义上来说 ,纯粹的服务不创造价值。使用价值的本质特性正在于它的物质性 ,如果为了将服务纳入到创造价值的劳动中来而勉强将使用价值的概念扩大 ,不仅背离了劳动价值论原来的意义 ,也不符合客观实际。确认纯粹的服务为非生产性劳动 ,不会削弱服务劳动在市场经济中的重要地位     

Female labour supply in Australia: Another example of a backward-bending labour supply curve

Hours worked by employed married females in Australia are analysed using techniques to correct for sample selection bias. Consistent with the conclusions of the study of female labour supply in the U.S. and Canada by Nakamura and Nakamura (1981), working wives work fewer hours per week when paid higher hourly wage rates.     

Ocupational segregation,labour force participation and the relative earnings of men and women

A model of the labour market is developed in which particiaption rates of men and women,wages rates of men and women and occupational segregation are determined simultaneously. The model is estimated using cross-sectional data from Australia. The most important empirical results are that (a) particiaption rates,wage rates and occupational segregation should be viewed as being simultaneously determined,(b) differences in male and female labour-force attactment and human capital attainment are important determinants of the gender composition of occupations and (c)there is little direct evidence in this study to support discrimination-based theories of occupational segregation.     

Contribution to unemployment of insurance-induced labour force participation: Canada - 1972

The 1971 Unemployment Insurance Act is found to raise labour force participation in Canada, accounting for between a third to two-thirds of the alleged Act's effect on unemployment in 1972. Policy implications are considered.     

Female labour force participation,fertility and infant mortality in Australia: some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.     

Labour supply of informal caregivers

This paper contributes to the informal caregiving literature by investigating the relationship between caregiving and the caregiver's labour market decisions. Its main interest is in determining the factors that affect the caregiver's decisions to remain in the work force and the amount of time he/she chooses to work. A major finding is that non-wage income, wage rate, education, the make-up of the caregiving network, and a host of identifiable sociodemo-graphic factors influence the caregiver's labour market decisions. Another finding is that some of the sociodemographic factors, e.g., gender and living arrangements, affect the decision to work but not the number of hours of work, and vice versa. The paper concludes with a discussion of future studies and public policy implications.