Measuring the effects of advertising on green industry sales: a generalized propensity score approach

This article estimates the effects of advertising expenditures on annual gross sales of green industry firms using a quasi-experimental framework. In order to account for potential selection bias, a generalized propensity score and a dose-response function are used to estimate advertising treatment effects. The method used allows us to investigate the relationship between the dose (advertising expenditures) and the response (firm sales). We use data from the National Green Industry Surveys of 2009 and 2014 to conduct the analysis. To further investigate potential heterogeneous advertising effects of the size of the firms, we separate the sample into small firms and large firms, according to their annual gross sales. The results indicate that the magnitude and shape of the response function depend on the size of the firm. For small firms, increasing advertising spending yields to higher sales within a range of advertising spending. Beyond this range, advertising spending increases do not impact sales any more. Thus, small firms’ management should carefully monitor advertising input. For large firms, on the other hand, the current evidence does not support a positive relationship between advertising spending and sales since the marginal treatment effect is insignificant almost over the entire range of adverting spending.     

Price clustering and natural resistance points in the Dutch stock market: A natural experiment

This paper focuses on the tendency of stock prices to cluster at round numbers (like 10, 20, 30, etc. and to a lesser extent 5, 15, 25, etc.) and the related effect of round number price barriers (prices pass round numbers less frequently than other numbers). Two competing hypotheses are tested, using data from the Dutch stock market of the period 1990–2001. After 1 January 1999 stock prices were listed in euros, while guilders were still the currency of daily life until 2002. The aspiration level hypothesis predicts that round number effects in guilders will only slowly disappear. The odd price hypothesis predicts an abrupt change in round number effects after 1 January 1999. Generally, the results are consistent with the odd price hypothesis.     

Asymmetric effect of advertising on the Chinese stock market

In this paper, we investigate whether investor attention to advertising has an asymmetric effect on Chinese stock returns by using a multivariate Markov switching model with time-varying regime transition probabilities. Using the Chinese stock market as a setting, we obtain lagged conditional volatility from generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) for modelling the time-varying transition probabilities of the regime-switching process to capture changes in the market regime. Our evidence documents that the high advertising portfolio does earn higher abnormal return than the low advertising portfolio in low-volatility periods. In high-volatility periods, however, the abnormal return is insignificant when the firm increases advertising spending. Our results support the behavioural model argument that in high-volatility period, advertising information diffuses slowly due to cognitive dissonance. Thus, the effect of advertising on stock returns is asymmetric, and it shows statistical significance in low-volatility periods.     

The identifiable victim effect in charitable giving: evidence from a natural field experiment

We design a natural field experiment to enhance our understanding of the role of the identifiable victim effect in charitable giving. Using direct mail solicitations to 25 797 prior donors of a nonprofit charity, we tested the responsiveness of donors to make a contribution to either an identifiable or a statistical victim. Unlike much previous research, which has used only laboratory experiments, we find that the campaign letter focusing on one identifiable victim did not result in significantly larger donations than the campaign letter focusing on the statistical victim. In addition to the role of the identifiable victim, we investigate the degree to which each of our campaign letters affected donors’ payments to other concurrent and future campaigns and whether there is decreasing marginal returns to campaigning in the sense that receiving a letter crowds out donors’ payments to other future and concurrent campaigns. We find some evidence of crowding out, indicating that charitable giving could be a zero-sum game; however, the treatment letters did not have different effects on other payments.     

The effect of advertising on total consumption of cigarettes in the U.K.: A comment

The premise that there is a link between the volume of cigarette advertising and the total cigarette consumption is examined in this study with reference to two previous studies done by McGuinness and Cowling and Metra Consulting Group Ltd. The relationship between cigarette advertising and cigarette consumption was tested by using econometric and statistical methods. The model tested had a reasonably high level of explanatory power in terms of accounting for changes in cigarette consumption over the studied period. Statistical analysis of the situation revealed a stable, positive and significant relationship between sales and media advertising of cigarettes.     

The effect of short sale constraints on analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

We examine the effect of short selling on analyst forecast quality following the pilot program in China in 2010 that allows short selling for selected companies. We find that reduction in short sale constraints significantly improves analyst forecast quality for these pilot-firms when compared to non-pilot firms. Specifically, analyst forecast errors for pilot firms are smaller and forecast dispersions are narrower. Further, we show that the improvement of analyst forecast quality is more prominent for firms with lower prior price efficiencies and disclosure quality, and in locations with lower institutional development. Our findings suggest that short selling activities serve an important role in facilitating the speed of information incorporation and improving the information environment faced by firms.     

A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic.     

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

A natural experiment for identifying the impact of ‘natural’ trade barriers on exports

The paper investigates the relative importance of trade policy and ‘natural’ sources of export taxation in Malawi, a landlocked African economy. These sources of export taxation are in turn used to explore how export supply would respond to trade liberalisation as opposed to measures which lower other international trade costs. The findings indicate that trade policy barriers are now only a limited source of ‘true’ export taxation and that trade policy reform needs to be complemented with reforms to reduce international trade, including transport, costs.     

An experiment on emissions trading: the effect of different allocation mechanisms

In theory, efficiency and compliance levels induced by an emission trading system should not depend on the initial allocation mechanism for permits in the absence of transaction costs. In a laboratory experiment we investigate this prediction by comparing frequent and infrequent auctioning as well as two different grandfathering schemes under market rules that closely resemble those of the European Union Emission Trading System. Our experimental results suggest that, contrary to theoretical predictions, the initial allocation procedure has the potential to affect efficiency of the final permit allocation. While we do not identify an effect of the initial allocation procedure itself (auction vs. grandfathering), we observe higher final efficiency after infrequent auctioning of permits than for frequent auctioning. Surprisingly, for a grandfathering scheme that distributes permits proportional to expected needs the high initial efficiency is substantially reduced by secondary market trading. An analysis of behavioral patterns shows that permit prices and abatement levels are initially substantially higher if permits are allocated by auction and we also find more over-banking as compared to the grandfathering treatments. Treatment differences diminish in the course of the experiment.     

A model of advertising format competition: on the use of celebrities in ads

We develop a model that endogenizes both advertising format – ads with or without celebrity endorsements – and the endorsement fee. Marketing studies suggest that celebrities enhance brand recall and perception of product value. In our model, ads featuring celebrities occur when the product market is large – endorsements are likely for products sold nationally – and when products are sufficiently similar that the persuasive character of advertising looms large in demand – running shoes, beauty products, soft drinks, for example. Celebrity endorsement fees are increasing in market size and in the degree of similarity of the products being advertised.     

Born on the first of July: An (un)natural experiment in birth timing

It is well understood that government policies can distort behavior. But what is less often recognized is that the anticipated introduction of a policy can introduce its own distortions. We study one such “introduction effect,” using evidence from a unique policy change in Australia. In 2004, the Australian government announced that children born on or after July 1, 2004 would receive a $3000 “Baby Bonus.” Although the policy was only announced seven weeks before its introduction, parents appear to have behaved strategically in order to receive the benefit, with the number of births dipping sharply before the policy commenced. On July 1, 2004, more Australian children were born than on any other single date in the past thirty years. We estimate that over 1000 births were “moved” so as to ensure that their parents were eligible for the Baby Bonus, with about one quarter being moved by more than one week. Most of the effect was due to changes in the timing of induction and cesarean section procedures. We find evidence to suggest that babies who were shifted into the eligibility period were more likely to be of high birth weight. Two years later, on July 1, 2006, the Baby Bonus was increased, and we find that this again caused births to be moved from June to July. These birth timing events represent an opportunity for health researchers to study the impact of planned birthdays and hospital management issues.     

A natural experiment on sick pay cuts,sickness absence,and labor costs

This study estimates the reform effects of a reduction in statutory sick pay levels on sickness absence behavior and labor costs. German federal law reduced the legal obligation of German employers to provide 100% continued wage pay for up to six weeks per sickness episode. In 1996 statutory sick pay was decreased to 80% of foregone gross wages. Within the reform's target group – private sector employees – this measure increased the proportion of employees having zero days of absence between 6 and 8%. Quantile regression estimates indicate that employees with up to 5.5 annual absence days reduced their days of absence by about 12%. Extended analyses suggest that in industries that enforced the cut, behavioral effects were about twice as large. We show that the direct labor cost savings effect stemming from the cut in replacement levels clearly exceeds the indirect effect due to the decrease in absenteeism. Our calculations about the total decrease in labor costs are very much in line with official data which suggest that total employer-provided sick pay decreased by 6.7% or €1.7 billion per year.     

TV advertising spillovers and demand for private labels: the case of carbonated soft drinks

The expansion of private labels, or store brands, has transformed consumer choice sets and competition in retail markets, prompting manufacturers to fight back with renewed pricing and product and promotion strategies to forestall further private label expansion. This article examines the spillover effects of television advertising on brand-level consumer demand for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs), including private labels, using a random coefficients logit model with household purchasing and advertising viewing Nielsen data. As in previous work, we find that although brand spillover effects significantly increase demand for CSD brands in the same company and undermine demand facing other manufacturers’ CSD brands, surprisingly, there are positive spillover effects on the demand for private label brands. This indicates that brand advertising is persuasive with respect to manufacturers’ brands but complementary with respect to private labels. Further results show that eliminating television advertising for CSDs would lower aggregate CSD sales as consumers migrate to other beverages, although private labels stand to gain, particularly Wal-Mart brands.     

A model of repeat advertising

Advertising conveys information not only about product characteristics but also about the number of consumers who know about the product. More advertising may shift expectations towards a larger consumer base, increasing buyers' valuation when there are consumption externalities.     

Paying the price of sweetening your donation: Evidence from a natural field experiment

We add a gift in appreciation of the subject’s contribution to a social reference treatment successfully proven to trigger higher donations, and find that the share of people contributing decreases significantly, thereby eroding the original treatment’s capacity to increase donations.     

Entry regulation and entrepreneurship: a natural experiment in German craftsmanship

This paper uses the 2004 amendment to the German Trade and Crafts Code as a natural experiment for assessing the causal effects of this reform on the probabilities of being self-employed and of transition into and out of self-employment. This is achieved by using repeated cross-sections (2002–2009) of German microcensus data. I apply the difference-in-differences technique for three groups of craftsmen which were subject to different intensities of treatment. The results show that the complete exemption from the educational entry requirement has fostered self-employment significantly by substantially increasing the entry probabilities, while exit rates have remained unaffected. I find similar, though weaker relative effects for the treatment groups that were subject to a reduction of entry costs or a partial exemption from the entry requirements. Moreover, I consider effect heterogeneity within each of the treatment groups with respect to gender and vocational training, and show that the deregulation of entry requirements has been most effective for untrained workers.     

Workers' compensation and injury duration: evidence from a natural experiment

This paper examines the effect of workers' compensation on time out of work. It introduces a "natural experiment8 approach of comparing individuals injured before and after increases in the maximum weekly benefit amount. The increases examined in Kentucky and Michigan raised the benefit amount for high-earnings individuals by approximately 50 percent, while low-earnings individuals, who were unaffected by the benefit maximum, did not experience a change in their incentives. Time out of work increased for those eligible for the higher benefits and remained unchanged for those whose benefits were constant. The estimated duration elasticities are clustered around 0.3-0.4.